Interest.com.au Breakfast Briefing

Interest.com.au
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Start your morning with the numbers that matter. Presented by Ben van Rooy, the Breakfast Briefing delivers a concise daily wrap of Australia's economic conditions, global market movements, and what it means for interest rates and your finances. In under two minutes: overnight markets, inflation, employment, the Australian dollar, bond yields, oil, and gold. Every story connects back to what's happening here at home. New episodes every weekday. Full reports and Australia's best home loan and term deposit rates at interest.com.au.

  1. 8h ago

    Breakfast Briefing | 8 June 2026 | US Payrolls Surprise Pushes Yields Higher

    US non-farm payrolls delivered a 172,000 jobs gain in May, more than double the 82,000 expected, but the composition tells a more nuanced story. Hospitality added 70,000, local government 55,000, and healthcare 35,000, while manufacturing, IT and construction were flat to lower. Lower-paid jobs rose, higher-paid roles shrank. Combined with the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil holding above USD 90/bbl, markets have shifted to a risk-off stance, pricing in earlier Federal Reserve rate hikes to pre-empt embedded inflation. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.54%, up 11 bps for the week. Canada also surprised, adding 88,000 jobs against expectations of 10,000, with unemployment falling to 6.6%. That may give the Bank of Canada cover to raise rates at its decision later this week. Elsewhere, China's foreign exchange reserves reached USD 3.44 trillion, the highest since October 2015, and India's Q1 growth came in at 7.8%, ahead of the 7.2% forecast. In contrast, Ireland's economy contracted more than 12% in Q1, dragging the EU's overall GDP lower, driven by a 27% slump in its multinational-dominated sectors. For Australian borrowers, the upward drift in global yields is the key signal. The Australian 10-year bond yield sits at 4.91%, up 6 bps for the week. Read the full Briefing: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/702/chinas-reserves-11-year-high-india-growth-stays-strong-us-payrolls-rise-not-productive #BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #USFed #BondYields #GlobalMarkets #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy

    3 min

  2. 3d ago

    Breakfast Briefing | 5 June 2026 | Hormuz Stays Shut as Freight Rates Surge 23%

    Markets are pricing in optimism that doesn't yet match the facts on the ground. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed today despite hopes of a US–Iran accommodation, with Hezbollah rejecting the framework and Israeli strikes continuing in Lebanon. The geopolitical pressure is showing up in trade flows. Global container freight rates jumped 23% in a single week, driven largely by outbound China routes, while bulk cargo rates eased slightly. In the US, employers announced 97,000 job cuts in May, the highest monthly total since January and the worst May since the pandemic. The tech sector dominates the losses, with AI displacement cited as the primary driver. Tonight's non-farm payrolls report is expected to show a modest 85,000 net gain. The OECD has called out China's steel subsidies, urging coordinated action to protect global capacity. Expect a fresh round of defensive trade barriers in response. Markets snapshot: Gold up USD 41 to USD 4,478/oz. US oil down USD 4 to USD 92/bbl. Brent at USD 94.50/bbl. AUD at 71.4 USc. Australian 10-year bond yield at 4.91%. Bitcoin down 4.3% to USD 63,013. ASX 200 closed down 1.1%. Full report: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/700/no-middle-east-resolution-despite-market-hopes-us-data-mixed-eu-retail-soft-freight #BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #OilPrices #Bitcoin #GlobalTrade #ASX200 #FinancialMarkets

    2 min

  3. 4d ago

    Breakfast Briefing | 4 June 2026 | Oil Surges as Hormuz Stays Shut

    Energy markets are once again front and centre. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and clashes in the Persian Gulf intensifying, WTI crude has climbed to just over USD 96/bbl and Brent to USD 98/bbl. American crude stockpiles have now fallen for a sixth consecutive week, and US strategic reserves sit at their lowest in 22 years. Domestically, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported Q1 GDP growth of 2.5% year-on-year, but momentum is fading. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in the March quarter weighed on household spending, exports fell, and a surge in data centre equipment spending may have accounted for the entire quarterly gain. In the US, the data is mixed. ADP private payrolls rose 122,000 in May — the strongest reading since January 2025 — but both the ISM and S&P Global services PMIs describe a jobless expansion, with firms shedding staff even as new orders grow. The Bank of Japan meets in just over a week, with Governor Ueda signalling rate hikes are firmly on the table to counter rising inflation. Markets: AUD at 71.3 USc, AU 10-year yield at 4.94%, US 10-year at 4.49%, Gold down USD 45 to USD 4,437/oz, Bitcoin off 2.4% at USD 65,847, S&P 500 down 0.5%, ASX 200 up 0.7%. https://www.interest.com.au/economy/698/us-data-mixed-inconsistent-canada-house-prices-fall-japan-assess-rate-hike-china #BreakfastBriefing #InterestComAu #AustralianEconomy #RBA #InterestRates #OilPrices #GDP #GlobalMarkets #BankOfJapan #EnergyMarkets

    3 min

  4. 5d ago

    Breakfast Briefing | 3 June 2026 | Gold Overtakes US Treasuries as Top Reserve Asset

    A quiet changing of the guard is underway in global finance. Fresh ECB analysis confirms gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest single asset held in foreign reserves, a structural shift with long-term implications for global capital flows. Closer to home, Australia recorded its first trade deficit since 2017 in the March quarter, with mineral exports softening (gold aside) while data centre equipment imports surged. In the US, April job openings hit an 18-month high, but the RCM TIPP sentiment index fell to a 2-year low. The Logistics Managers Index held at its highest reading since the pandemic, with inventory, warehousing and freight costs all accelerating. EU CPI firmed to 3.2% in May, with markets fully pricing ECB action on June 11. China is heading into a bumper wheat harvest while Australian and US growers hesitate amid high fertiliser and fuel costs. Markets: AUD at 71.8 USc, AU 10yr bond at 4.92%, UST 10yr at 4.46%, gold at USD 4,482/oz, US oil near USD 93.50/bbl, Brent at USD 96/bbl, Bitcoin down 5.9% to USD 67,464. Full report: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/694/us-labour-data-upbeat-sentiment-downbeat-china-harvests-eu-inflation-spotlight #BreakfastBriefing #InterestComAu #AustralianEconomy #RBA #InterestRates #Gold #USTreasuries #ECB #GlobalMarkets #Commodities

    3 min

  5. 6d ago

    Breakfast Briefing | 26 May 2026 | US Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low

    American consumers are the most pessimistic on record. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low in May, its third consecutive monthly decline, with petrol prices and persistent cost-of-living pressures doing the damage. Year-ahead inflation expectations have risen to 4.8%, and long-run expectations have jumped from 3.5% to 3.9%. Meanwhile, the Iran-US standoff in the Persian Gulf is far from resolved. Despite earlier optimism, Trump confirmed over the weekend that a deal is not fully negotiated. With oil at $97 USD/bbl and Canadian producer prices running 11.4% above year-ago levels, global supply chain cost pressures remain significant. Fed Governor Waller's comments that the next move could be a hike, not a cut, add further weight to the hawkish global outlook. For Australia, the week ahead is pivotal. Wednesday's April CPI release and Thursday's household spending data are both expected to come in elevated, with direct implications for the RBA's rate outlook. Full briefing and source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/678/iran-us-deal-proving-hard-close-us-consumers-sentiment-hits-record-low-canada-battles Check the latest home loan and term deposit rates at interest.com.au #BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #RBA #interestcomau #USInflation #FederalReserve #IranUSNuclearDeal #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #FinanceNews #MacroEconomics

    2 min

  6. 6d ago

    Breakfast Briefing | 2 June 2026 | Hormuz Standoff & Australian Inflation Dips

    Australian inflation eased in May, with the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge falling 0.3% on lower transport and fuel costs following the excise tax rollback. The annual rate now sits at 4.4%, offering the RBA a modest data point ahead of its next decision. However, the latest Australian factory PMI shows new orders falling at their sharpest pace since October, while selling price inflation has hit a 45-month high. Globally, the picture is more turbulent. Iran has reportedly suspended communications with Washington and is threatening to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil higher. Factory activity across the US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all expanded sharply in May, but growth is being driven largely by stockpiling as firms race to beat rising costs and supply chain delays. Key figures: ● AUD at 71.6 USc● Australian 10-year bond yield at 4.90%● US 10-year Treasury at 4.47%● Gold down to USD 4,491/oz● US oil up to USD 91.50/bbl, Brent at USD 94.50/bbl● Bitcoin at USD 71,684, down 2.5%● South Korean exports at record 88,000 million US Dollars, up 53% year-on-year Full report: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/691/hormuz-unresolved-global-factories-expand-stockpiling-korean-exports-impress-australian #BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #Inflation #OilPrices #Hormuz #GlobalMarkets #SupplyChain

    2 min

  7. May 31

    Breakfast Briefing | 1 June 2026 | Sydney and Melbourne House Prices Turn

    The long-awaited correction in Australian housing is underway, and it is showing up first in our two largest markets. ● Sydney average prices dipped 0.9% in May, taking the three-month fall to 2.1%● Melbourne dropped 0.8% in May, with a 2.3% quarterly decline● Auction volumes are at six-year lows as transaction activity retreats● Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth continue to push higher Higher mortgage rates, stretched affordability, and recent Budget changes to how capital gains tax is applied are combining to cool demand in Sydney and Melbourne. The RBA will be watching closely as the housing channel begins to transmit tighter policy more visibly. On the retirement front, industry forecasts point to 2.5 million Australians entering retirement over the next decade. Savers now believe they need 1 million AUD to retire comfortably, yet average balances for those aged 60 to 65 are just 400,000 AUD for men and 315,000 AUD for women, raising real questions about adequacy. Offshore, China's official manufacturing PMI showed the factory sector at a steady state, with services returning to modest growth. In the Gulf, ships are slowly exiting the Strait of Hormuz but the underlying US-Iran standoff remains unresolved. Forecasters are also warning of a developing super El Niño with global impacts expected later this year. Markets: AUD at 71.8 USc, Australian 10-year at 4.84%, US 10-year at 4.45%, gold 4,538 USD/oz, US oil 87.50 USD/bbl, Brent 91 USD/bbl, Bitcoin 73,514 USD. Full report: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/689/china-pmis-steady-little-expansion-house-prices-ease-sydney-melbourne-aussie-super #BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #HousingMarket #Superannuation #Property #GlobalMarkets #FinancialNews

    2 min

  8. May 27

    Breakfast Briefing | 28 May 2026 | Inflation Eases, Oil Falls

    Australia's April CPI landed at 4.2% year-on-year this morning, below the 4.4% consensus and down from 4.6% in March. For the Reserve Bank, a second consecutive softer-than-expected inflation print strengthens the case for continued easing through 2026. The monthly moderation was led by a 7% fall in fuel prices, partly reflecting the halving of the fuel excise from 1 April. Housing costs remain a persistent pressure point, running at 6.3% annually. Overnight, Iranian State Television reported a draft agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets sold off sharply on the news, with US crude dropping to USD 89.50/bbl. The US has denied the report, but commodity markets are clearly pricing a resolution. Sustained lower energy prices would amplify the domestic disinflationary trend and reinforce the RBA's easing trajectory. In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week as 30-year rates climbed to their highest since August 2025, a signal that borrowing conditions remain tight stateside despite easing inflation elsewhere. Today's key market levels: AUD/USD at 71.3 USc, AU 10yr bond at 4.90%, US 10yr Treasury at 4.48%, Gold at USD 4,450/oz, Bitcoin at USD 74,765, S&P 500 up 0.1%. Full report and source links at interest.com.au: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/684/commodity-markets-believe-iran-tv-us-mortgage-applications-drop-higher-us-rates-other #BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #CPI #Inflation #AustralianDollar #OilMarkets #FixedIncome

    2 min
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About

Start your morning with the numbers that matter. Presented by Ben van Rooy, the Breakfast Briefing delivers a concise daily wrap of Australia's economic conditions, global market movements, and what it means for interest rates and your finances. In under two minutes: overnight markets, inflation, employment, the Australian dollar, bond yields, oil, and gold. Every story connects back to what's happening here at home. New episodes every weekday. Full reports and Australia's best home loan and term deposit rates at interest.com.au.

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