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RFI goes behind-the-scenes of one of the week's major stories.

  1. 1d ago

    Turkey enters political unknown after police raid opposition party headquarters

    Turkey's main opposition CHP was thrown into fresh disarray Saturday as court-installed leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu made his first visit to party headquarters since a controversial court ruling scrapped a 2023 party primary. Ozgur Ozel, the CHP leader ousted by the decision, called for an urgent congress, telling thousands at an Ankara rally that the party "cannot be run by an appointed leader". The 21 May court ruling has plunged the CHP, Turkey's oldest political party, into a crisis. Three days after the order, riot police forced their way into the party's headquarters in Ankara, armed with pepper spray and batons, to remove CHP leader Ozgur Ozel – a key rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The court said Ozel's 2023 election as party leader was marred by irregularities, and restored the former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In Turkey, elections are overseen by the Supreme Election Council, which certified Ozel’s win, and its rulings are constitutionally final. It is just the latest move against the CHP, which scored a major victory over Erdogan's ruling AKP in the 2024 local elections and has since gained ground in the polls. Party primary Kilicdaroglu visited that party headquarters on Saturday to mark the final day of Eid, with a photo shared by his team on social media showing him seated at his desk with a copy of the party's bylaws placed prominently in front of him. "I will bring a ballot box for party congress before you as soon as possible," Kilicdaroglu said in an address, without providing a precise date. Ozel renewed his challenge to Kilicdaroglu to contest a party primary, saying he was willing to run "with whatever delegates he wants". With crowds chanting "Traitor Kemal!", Ozel said the party congress must be held "immediately", urging Kilicdaroglu to "hold a congress at once, with whichever delegates you wish. Give the party an elected leader without delay. The CHP does not accept appointments." He also demanded a primary election, saying that he would give up the party leadership if he received less than 85 percent support. Turkey expert Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at United States think tank, the Middle East Institute told RFI that Kilicdaroglu is "a convenient opponent for [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, because he "lost every major election during his 13 years at the helm of the party." Turkey riot police use tear gas to take opposition party HQ 'A broader campaign' Ozel, 51, was elected leader at a party convention after 77-year-old Kilicdaroglu lost the 2023 presidential election. Ozel has revitalized the CHP, which now leads many opinion polls. Tol suggests Ozel's removal is part of a wider campaign. "This is the latest step in Erdogan's broader campaign to weaken the opposition," said Tol. “Last March, in another unprecedented move, authorities jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu – he is Erdogan's top political rival. And since then, the government has systematically targeted CHP mayors through court cases and corruption investigations,” she added. Crackdown on Turkish opposition intensifies, with further arrests of mayors Addressing protesters, Ozel vowed to flood the streets and squares in defiance of what he calls a judicial coup, while also appealing his removal. Kilicdaroglu, meanwhile, is promising to restore order to the party and cleanse it of “corrupting forces”. The government insists the judiciary is independent and denies any political agenda. Erdogan has remained silent on the issue. Still, some observers see the opposition’s upheaval as part of Erdogan’s grander vision for Turkey’s future. Political commentator Sezin Oney from independent Turkish media outlet Politikyol notes that Erdogan is eager to shape the post-Erdogan era. "He wants to design the succession, most probably to have a close family member replacing him. So he wants to shape the whole [political] terrain accordingly." 'Opposition psyche' Erdogan has ruled Turkish politics for almost 25 years, buoyed by both his political acumen and a fragmented opposition. But in the past year, Ozel’s energetic leadership has powered over 100 mass rallies nationwide, even in Erdogan’s strongholds, as Ozel taps into rising public frustration over crackdowns on dissent and skyrocketing food prices. The removal of Ozel as CHP leader is seen as a pivotal moment for Turkish democracy. “Turkey is moving closer to a Russia-style system where the leader decides who the opposition will be and ensures no real surprise can emerge at the ballot box,” predicts Tol. “Why is Erdogan taking such a massive political and economic risk? Erdogan knows he cannot win genuinely free and fair elections anymore." With Erdogan enjoying close ties with US President Donald Trump and the European Union increasingly looking to Turkey as a security partner, under the looming Russian threat, international reaction has been muted over the latest move against the opposition. Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner Speaking to tens of thousands of people at a rally in Izmir on Tuesday, Ozel vowed to escalate protests. Rumours are swirling that he could launch a new party. One opinion poll found only 11 percent of respondents approved of the removal of Ozel. Yet the legal noose appears to be tightening, with reports suggesting his parliamentary immunity could be stripped and that he may soon join other top party members behind bars. “We don't have the opposition in political representation form, but the people are there. The opposition psyche of the people is still there. So you cannot absolutely nullify the people or their political views,” said Oney. “We don't know what's going to come out of it. We can make predictions, but it's something totally novel and new in Turkey, and Turkish history as well."

    7 min

  2. May 23

    Turkey courts Libya's rival factions in bid to further Mediterranean ambitions

    In a bold move by Ankara, Turkey this week brought together Libya’s two rival militaries for international exercises. While firmly supporting the Tripoli-based regime, Turkey is now extending an olive branch to the Benghazi administration, aiming to steady Libya and broaden its sway across the region. For the first time, Libya’s two military forces participated internationally together under one flag. According to the Turkish defence ministry, 501 personnel from both Libyan armies joined Turkey’s Efes 2026 military exercises. “There needs to be one unified army in Libya, one unified military force,” said Libya expert Aya Burweila of the Athens-based Centre for Hellenic and Mediterranean Studies. “I think these joint exercises help with that. They help facilitate closer cooperation with both sides, and that can only be a good thing.” Libya has been split since 2014, with the Government of National Unity ruling the west from Tripoli and the Government of National Stability holding the east in Benghazi. While Ankara has long championed Tripoli, analyst Burweila suggests that May’s joint exercises signal a new Turkish push to engage with Benghazi. “This is a huge, practical pivot towards the east [by Turkey]. It has huge implications for Libya’s stability. Turkey’s position now is that it has good relations with both sides,” said Burweila. “It’s not just joint military exercises. There are business interests, there are sales of weapons and drones, and so forth.”  Turkey and Italy boost cooperation in bid to shape Libya’s political future Energy reserves For Ankara, courting the Benghazi administration, led by military commander Khalifa Haftar, is all about expanding Turkey’s influence in the eastern Mediterranean, argues Jalel Harchaoui of the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defence think tank.  Harchaoui said Ankara needs Haftar’s support to enforce a 2019 memorandum of understanding that Turkey signed with the Tripoli administration to create a joint exclusive economic zone in Libyan waters.  “Now, if Ankara wants to enforce it, which it does, it needs to have the Haftar family on board,” Harchaoui explained. “The Haftar family can deliver on two very necessary things: the parliamentary ratification, because the parliament happens to be controlled by the Haftar family, and also the part of the coast that is involved in this arrangement is eastern Libya, not western Libya.” However, the Turkey-Libya exclusive economic zone, believed to have large untapped energy reserves, is strongly opposed by Greece and Cyprus, who claim it violates their territorial waters. Neighbouring Egypt and Israel have also voiced concerns. Haftar’s eastern Libyan government shares their reluctance. “Eastern Libya has very good relations with Egypt and has cordial relations with Greece as well. And this memorandum, at least from their side, violates their rights,” explained Libya analyst Burweila.  She added: “I think what lots of Libyans feel is: 'this fight is not our fight. We don't want to be involved in this kind of dispute.' So while this is a big priority for Turkey, it is not a priority for Libyans, and I think everybody there would prefer to kick this can down the road.” Egypt and Turkey's closer ties spark hope for peace among Libya’s rival factions Carrot and stick Throughout 2025, Ankara wooed Haftar and his son Saddam, chief of staff of the Libyan National Army, but saw little progress. According to analyst Harchaoui, Turkey has since toughened its stance, zeroing in on Haftar’s late-year military backing of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Turkish-made combat drones have been pictured on airbases in southern Egypt, which like Turkey backs the Sudanese army in its fight against the paramilitary RSF. According to a New York Times investigation, they have been used for strikes in Sudan. “This was a new development,” said Harchaoui, “It was basically Turkey saying, 'I smiled for most of 2025, and you did nothing for me. And you will have seen two faces. You will have seen the carrot, obviously, but also the stick.'” In April, Turkey delivered a new batch of military drones to Haftar’s army, continuing this carrot-and-stick policy. The Turkish defence ministry says it aims to hold further joint military exercises with both Libyan armies. While Turkey is stepping up its efforts to stabilise Libya, its goal of securing joint control of a huge swathe of the eastern Mediterranean threatens to drag the country further into an increasingly bitter regional rivalry.

    6 min

  3. May 16

    Turkey expands military footprint in Somalia as regional rivalries intensify

    Turkey’s role in Somalia is under growing scrutiny, with the East African country embroiled in controversy over elections and Israel stepping up efforts to challenge Turkey in the region. Over the last two years Turkey has ramped up its economic and military presence in Somalia, building on decades of development. The East African country is home to Turkey’s largest overseas military base and this year it bolstered its military presence, deploying F16 fighter jets and tanks. Turkey is also constructing a space port for its rapidly advancing missile programme, and the two countries have signed agreements to exploit potentially vast energy reserves. But the deepening partnership is proving increasingly controversial, says Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group. While five or 10 years ago there would have been "quite high praise" for Turkey's role, that's changed over the last two years. "Some of these [Turkish] contracts and projects have tipped into [a much] greater scale and that has raised questions" he noted. Turkey boosts Mali defence ties after separatist and jihadist attacks Election dispute A looming constitutional crisis is adding to the scrutiny of Turkey’s role in Somalia. The Somali government is insisting it has one year left of its electoral mandate, while the opposition claims elections should be held in May. "The core issue is that the political elite are infighting about the system,” explains Mahmood. “So anytime that happens, those who are against the government wind up complaining and then also looking at who is supporting the Somali government." Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authorisation of $30 million in cash aid to the Somali government, which coincided with an April visit to Istanbul by his Somali counterpart, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, drew criticism from both the Somali and Turkish opposition. Famine looms in Somalia amid drought, dwindling aid and Middle East war “Turkey providing cash aid to the Somali government sparked the debate,” said African studies professor Elem Eyrice Tepeciklioglu, of the Social Sciences University of Ankara. “It seems some people think Turkey supports the ruling government, and provides support to the ruling government because they benefit from the relationship.” Ankara has strongly refuted accusations of interference in Somali politics. However, it could be paying the price for being too focused on Mogadishu in the past, given the diverse nature of Somalia's regions. “Turkey has started to learn from its mistakes,” said Tepeciklioglu. “They have started to increase their involvement with different states, with different regions, and have started to increase their engagement with local people as well.” Rivalry in the region Turkey is also facing a growing challenge in the region from Israel, which in April appointed an ambassador to Somaliland – becoming the first country to recognise the breakaway republic, which seceded from Somalia in 1991. “It’s been useful probably for [Israel] to assert themselves against Turkey in an area where Turkey has firmly planted its flag,” said Norman Ricklefs of geopolitical consultancy, the NAMEA Group. Israeli-Turkish relations remain strained over Ankara’s support of Hamas and Israel’s war against Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli government has indicated it is considering a military presence in Somaliland, to counter the threat posed by the Houthis in Yemen.  “I don't think we're at that stage yet,” said Ricklefs. "But any Israeli military presence in Somaliland is going to raise angst amongst the neighbours – Somalia, Egypt, Turkey and potentially Saudi Arabia. Obviously, it's going to be destabilising.” The risky calculations behind Israel's recognition of Somaliland The Horn of Africa could be a potential new flashpoint if Israel deploys military assets in Somaliland, agrees international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. "The potential for conflict between Israel and Turkey is really high, because they're pursuing diametrically opposed objectives. If relations further deteriorate, then we may see tensions running high between the two countries because they would be in almost physical contact. Their military assets may run the risk of having dangerous encounters with each other." Israeli-Turkish rivalry in the region threatens to exacerbate existing tensions in an already volatile area. For Turkey, which has invested more than €1 billion in development in Somalia over the past decade, and is also eyeing major financial returns from its energy exploration in Somalian waters, the stakes are high.

    6 min

  4. May 9

    Turkey sounds alarm over planned French troop deployment to Cyprus

    Ankara has voiced alarm at Cyprus’s announcement that France will deploy soldiers on the Mediterranean island. The move has fuelled Turkish fears of encirclement, as Cyprus and Greece continue to deepen defence ties with Turkey’s rival Israel. Turkish officials have strongly criticised France’s plan to send soldiers to Cyprus, warning it could escalate tensions. Cyprus has remained divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded following a coup backed by Greece. The north is governed by a Turkish Cypriot administration recognised only by Turkey. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides stated that the French deployment is part of a Status of Forces Agreement to be signed in June. France increased its military support, sending forces to the area after Iranian missiles targeted the island. But Ankara sees the move as part of a growing rivalry with Paris. “Turkey and France are geopolitical rivals. They have been competing with each other in Africa and the eastern Mediterranean,” explains international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. “France is inclined to view Turkey as a potential revisionist power, pursuing hegemonic aspirations in the region,” he said, adding that Cyprus is a small island and a concentration of military power without unified command could lead to unwanted escalation. Cyprus’s EU presidency: seeking resilience in a new world order Christodoulides downplayed Turkish concerns, stating that any French deployment would serve “humanitarian purposes". However, former Cypriot ambassador Euripides Evriviades argues that Turkey’s military presence is the primary security threat in Cyprus. “These things are happening because we feel very insecure – it is 40,000 Turkish troops on the island in an aggressive posture,” said Evriviades. “The insecurity on the island stems directly from the continued occupation and violations of human rights that come with any occupation." French backing Macron’s support for Cyprus echoes his strong backing of Greece. During a recent visit to Athens, he said there was “no room for doubt” about France’s military support for Greece against any threats, a statement widely interpreted as being aimed at Turkey. France’s increased support for Greece and Cyprus coincides with Athens and Nicosia strengthening security ties with Israel. Cyprus urges EU to agree plan for defence of member states ahead of summit “The Cyprus problem is no longer the Cyprus problem per se, but has become a part of the wider geopolitical rivalries in the region,” said Guvenc. Turkish-Israeli relations remain tense, with both sides viewing each other as a threat. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that the alignment of Cyprus, Israel and Greece is an attempt to “encircle Turkey". Ankara fears that such a military alliance could be used to advance Greek and Cypriot claims over the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas, where Turkey and Greece have multiple territorial disputes. “If they combine their military and naval capabilities, they may attempt to deny Turkey access to the Eastern Mediterranean. So this is a danger,” said Guvenc. Cycle of distrust The upcoming Washington summit involving Greece, Cyprus and Israel is likely to intensify Ankara’s concerns about isolation. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara, warns that the region is caught in a growing cycle of distrust, and any new military deployment to Cyprus is likely to prompt a reciprocal response. “Turkey could make new deployments, drones, even fighter jets,” he said. Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner Unluhisarcikli also cautions that renewed tensions over Cyprus are a dangerous distraction from the ongoing Russian threat. “At a time when the transatlantic community at large is facing much larger external threats, NATO allies should not be posturing against each other, and that's what we are seeing. This is unacceptable." “The risk of a real confrontation is very limited, but it will lead both sides to double down on their current positions,” he added. Turkey, which has the second-largest army in NATO, is viewed by some in the European Union as a potential answer to concerns about the United States’ commitment to Europe's defence amid the ongoing Russian threat. However, renewed tensions over Cyprus may undermine these expectations.

    6 min

  5. May 2

    Turkey boosts Mali defence ties after separatist and jihadist attacks

    Turkey’s efforts to expand its influence in West Africa could be threatened by attacks on Mali’s military regime, as Ankara pledges support while its growing security cooperation with Bamako faces new pressure. Ankara has strongly condemned attacks by Tuareg separatists and Al Qaeda-linked jihadists on Mali’s military government. The attacks began last weekend, killed the defence minister and handed over control of key territory. Turkey has built ties with Mali over the past two decades, but since Mali’s military rulers took power in 2021, that relationship has shifted sharply towards security. “Since 2010, that expansion has been much more rapid,” said Professor Sedat Aybar, director of the Asia Pacific Africa Studies Centre at Bahcesehir University in Istanbul. “It starts on humanitarian grounds and then evolves toward economic cooperation, followed by security and military aid, and capacity building for the Malian military, particularly against terrorist activities in the north.” Russia vows to keep forces in Mali despite warning from separatists to withdraw Security expansion Turkey has signed several security and defence agreements with Mali’s military rulers, mainly focused on training and logistics. Defence sales have also increased, including advanced Turkish drones. Turkey’s role has grown as Mali sought new security partners after expelling French forces in 2022. Russia remains Mali’s main security partner, but Turkey is becoming more important as Bamako seeks to reduce dependence on Moscow. “We did see the late defense minister [Sadio Camara] going to Ankara on several occasions to sign bilateral agreements, but also to acquire drones and other equipment that would support the Malian army,” said Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risks, a global risk consultancy. Turkish firms have sold Mali advanced drones, including the Akinci, she said, adding that Russian paramilitary forces in Mali have also acquired equipment through Turkey, “It's also by proxy, because the Russian paramilitaries, they have been acquiring equipment on their own behalf, but also for the Malian army via Turkey,” Ochieng said. Malian official accuses Russian forces of 'betrayal' after Kidal falls to rebels Regional ambitions Turkey’s expanding security role in Mali is part of a broader Sahel strategy that also includes Burkina Faso and Niger. “Not just Mali, but the Sahel is very important. Cooperation with Burkina Faso and Niger is very important too,” said Melis Ozdemir, a PhD candidate at Galatasaray University studying Turkish-Malian relations. The military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, all of which cut defence ties with France, have opened new opportunities for Turkish diplomacy and defence exports. “It's given Turkey a chance to increase its footprint, not just politically or diplomatically, but also it can show its military power, its drones, and its new military vehicles and equipment,” said Ozdemir. “I think Turkey is also testing its own military equipment in these regions.” Direct Turkish military intervention in Mali appears unlikely, Aybar said, but Ankara could still send military advisers if requested. “Nigeria requested Turkish military advisors to enhance Nigeria's capacity to fight Boko Haram, the terrorist organization in Nigeria, so Turkey is engaged in doing this,” said Aybar. “If the Malian government invites Turkey to do a similar thing in Mali, then Turkey will consider sending in experts and advisers to the military in Mali.” Turkey is also offering diplomatic support. “There could be a route through negotiations,” said Ochieng. “Turkey is one of the middle powers that is also trying to look for dynamic ways of resolving conflict. It’s not just within the Sahel, but you've seen them try to be involved in the DR Congo, calling for dialogue between the warring parties,” Ochieng said. “Ankara and Istanbul have also become a point where armed groups are able to hold talks and to find mediated ways out of political and security crises."

    5 min

  6. Apr 26

    Chernobyl, 40 years on: the disaster that triggered the downfall of a superpower

    As radiation spread across Europe in April 1986, so did the truth about a political system built on silence. Four decades on, RFI spoke to history and politics professor Oleg Kobtzeff about how the Chernobyl nuclear disaster exposed the USSR's culture of secrecy, and was among the catalysts for its collapse. On 26 April, 1986, a reactor exploded at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in what was then the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, sending a radioactive cloud drifting across Europe. For days, the Soviet Union said nothing. But as radiation alarms sounded in Scandinavia and the truth seeped out, the disaster became something bigger than an industrial accident. It pulled back the curtain on a system built on secrecy – and, some argue, helped bring that system crashing down. Four decades on, the question still resonates: was Chernobyl the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union? Oleg Kobtzeff, associate professor of history and politics at the American University of Paris, says the scale of the disaster was understood almost immediately in Moscow. “You have a complete meltdown of the core of the nuclear plant. We quite often forget the incredibly heroic attempts of the local scientists and the firemen and other responders who managed to prevent the worst.” Those early interventions, he says, prevented an even greater catastrophe, one with potentially global consequences. “A lot of people sacrificed their lives to contain the meltdown." Hiding the endless horror of Chernobyl Culture of secrecy But while the severity of the situation was clear to those in power, their response followed a different script – one shaped by decades of Soviet political conditioning. “Secrecy was part of the political culture, and habits that had gone on for four generations,” said Kobtzeff. “It was unthinkable to be transparent.” From childhood, Soviet citizens were conditioned to see the outside world as hostile and to guard information accordingly. “You are taught that we are surrounded by enemies and spies and we must not disclose any vital information,” Kobtzeff explained. “So obviously there’s going to be about two, three weeks when the authorities keep it under the lid.” But when fallout was detected abroad – in Sweden, Norway and Finland, even parts of France – silence became impossible, particularly at a time when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was seeking to ease Cold War tensions. According to Kobtzeff, Chernobyl was an opportunity. “It became a pretext for Gorbachev and the liberals in the Kremlin to begin the reforms that they had already been thinking about for years." A new transparency What followed marked a sharp break with the past, as Gorbachev faced journalists and answered unscripted questions about the disaster. “He dares to respond candidly,” said Kobtzeff. “Conferences of this sort had never happened since the Bolshevik Revolution.” This shift was immediate and widely understood. “It was seen as an absolute revolution. People understood what was happening even before the word 'perestroika' was pronounced.” But this greater openness came at a cost. By exposing industrial mismanagement, environmental damage and decades of secrecy, the reforms also undermined the legitimacy of the Soviet system. “The tragedy of Gorbachev… is that instead of being seen as a reformer, he’s seen as the last man standing of a completely flawed system,” said Kobtzeff. West pays tribute to Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader who ended Cold War The debate over Chernobyl’s role in the Soviet collapse continues. Some argue the system was already in decline, weakened by economic stagnation and political rigidity. Kobtzeff acknowledges that view, describing the disaster as part of an existing broader malaise. But he is clear on one point – Chernobyl acted as a catalyst. “Whether it’s a symptom or whether it’s completely part of the mechanisms… I don't think it really matters,” he argued. “The important thing to understand is that everything is related.” A grim legacy That interpretation, Kobtzeff said, was shared at the highest levels of Soviet power. “They realised that Chernobyl was becoming a catalyst for everything that was wrong with the system,” he said, citing personal accounts from former Soviet foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze. “They discussed this in government meetings – that it revealed what needed to be reformed if you wanted to save the system.” Forty years on, the physical legacy of the disaster remains grim. In parts of Belarus and northern Ukraine, communities still live with elevated rates of cancer, thyroid disease and birth defects. A vast exclusion zone surrounds the reactor, a place that is strangely both abandoned and revived, with wild animals thriving there, undisturbed by humans. “You have an entire zone near Chernobyl which is completely cordoned off,” Kobtzeff said. “It’s like another planet.” He added that the site remains a long-term challenge: “We’ve got thousands of years of work to continue containing this.” In 1986, the Soviet Union too tried to contain the fallout – but the truth was harder to hide.

    18 min

  7. Apr 26

    Turkey steps up as Europe's indispensable and uncomfortable defence partner

    Europe is turning to Turkey to fill the security vacuum left by an increasingly unreliable United States. But as Nato's secretary-general was praising Ankara's growing military role this week, the European Commission president was placing Turkey in the same bracket as China and Russia. The contradiction points to a dilemma that is only going to deepen. Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte visited Aselsan, one of Turkey's fast-expanding defence companies and a growing arms supplier to Europe, during a trip to Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday, using the occasion to underline the scale of threats facing the alliance.  NATO's southern anchor "Russia's war against Ukraine rages on, China's military modernisation and nuclear expansion continue, and Iran spreads terror and chaos, and you feel this here in Turkey," he said. The visit came days after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered a different message, placing Turkey alongside China and Russia as a competitor rather than an ally or membership applicant. It was a rare public signal of how deep European reservations about Ankara run, even as reliance on Turkish military capacity grows. Europe's uneasy dependency Huseyin Bagci, professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University, says the contrast between Rutte and von der Leyen exposes a fundamental contradiction at the heart of Europe's relationship with Ankara. "What Rutte said and what von der Leyen said are two contradictory statements," he said. "Turkey is becoming less democratic. But the more America separates itself from European security, the more important Turkey will become." That dynamic is already reshaping Nato's architecture. Adana is set to host a new corps headquarters, designated MNC-TUR, under Turkish command, while Istanbul is to become the base of a new maritime command, focused on Black Sea security as part of post-war planning for Ukraine. Serhat Guvenc, a military expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says Turkey's expanding capabilities and operational record make the enlarged role a natural fit. Will Turkey ditch Russian missiles for US military jets? *"Turkey's future contribution may take shape around these existing initiatives," he said, pointing to the wartime grain corridor and the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures task group as foundations to build on. Turkey has also launched an ambitious naval building programme, with modern submarines well suited to Black Sea operations. Yet the question of how far Europe can trust Ankara remains unresolved. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained close ties with Vladimir Putin throughout the Ukraine war. Federico Donelli, a political scientist at the University of Trieste, says the EU is still searching for clarity on where Turkey actually stands. "Turkey has on many occasions adopted a more ambiguous stance, even in relation to the war in Ukraine," he said. "The EU would like to know whether Turkey could be a reliable partner." If Putin wins Ankara argues that its relationship with Moscow is a diplomatic asset, allowing it to serve as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey has hosted peace talks between the two sides on several occasions. But Guvenc warns that calculus could shift sharply if Russia emerges victorious. "If peace comes on Putin's terms, the potential Russian threat to Turkey's interests will increase several-fold," he said. "Russia emerging from the conflict with substantial gains will be a very different story." Erdogan weighs benefits of friendlier ties with Turkey's Western allies The tension between Turkey's military indispensability and its political unpredictability is set to take centre stage at the Nato summit on 7-8 July in Ankara. With Washington's commitment to European defence still in question, European leaders may find themselves with little choice but to deepen ties with a partner many of them do not fully trust.

    7 min

  8. Apr 18

    Turkey warns it could be Israel's 'next enemy' as tensions escalate

    Turkey's foreign minister has warned it could be Israel’s "next enemy" as the war with Iran appears headed for closure, and called for a Middle East security pact amid rising tensions between the two countries.  "After Iran, Israel cannot live without an enemy – it has to develop a rhetoric to shape public opinion," declared Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in a television interview on Monday. "We see that not only Netanyahu’s administration, but also some figures in the opposition – though not all – are seeking to declare Turkey the new enemy." Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become one of the region’s most vocal critics of Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, fuelling a surge in bilateral tensions. In response, Israel accuses Erdogan of backing terrorist organisations, including Hamas, whom Erdogan has called “liberation fighters". Diplomatic ties have withered, leaving only a skeleton crew in each respective embassy. Iraq turns to Turkey for oil exports as Middle East war reshapes routes Turkish-Israeli relations have a history of highs and lows, but current tensions are unprecedented, argues Turkish security analyst Arda Mevlutoglu. "Turkey is considering Israel a security threat because of the unpredictability factor of the Israeli government,” he said, noting that Israel’s unpredictability, combined with a breakdown in mutual understanding, is causing deep unease within Ankara’s corridors of power. “Mutual understanding is especially critical when it comes to establishing at least a minimum amount of security environment, and the lack of such ability forces Turkey to take precautionary measures in both diplomatic, strategic and military domains as well,” he said. Baku's 'silent diplomacy' Fidan on Monday also called for the formation of a Middle East security pact – following follows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent warning of an emerging radical Sunni alliance in the region, which he said is threatening Israel. Alarmed by the escalating tensions, Azerbaijan – one of the few countries with strong ties to both Turkey and Israel – has quietly entered the fray. “We are behind the scenes through the silent diplomacy, effectively contributing to de-conflict certain elements of the misunderstandings and also building a certain trust and channels of communication between the two parties,” said Hikmet Haciyev, assistant to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and head of the country's Department of Foreign Affairs. Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance strained by opposing stances on Israel With Turkey and Israel both having a military hold in Syria, the country is a potential flashpoint. The Baku talks saw the creation of a hotline between Turkish and Israeli militaries to avoid any accidental clashes between their air forces, which routinely fly over Syria. But with two Israeli ministers last year calling for the assassination of the Syrian President Ahmed al-Assad, a key ally of Erdogan, Syria remains a hotspot, and Fidan warned on Monday that Israel could target Syria after the Iran conflict. Washington's role Turkey expert Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, while acknowledging Baku’s role, says more needs to be done. “I would say tensions between Turkey and Israel are high enough that the United States also has to be involved. And I think there's a wider understanding in Washington that they should play this role." Asli Aydintasbas, head of the Turkey Project at the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank, agrees. Turkey pushes for European missile defence deal amid Iran tensions "Washington certainly has to step in and do more in order to mediate between Turkey and Israel. This is a very, very dangerous rivalry and it has the hallmarks of emerging into a long-term enmity,” she warned. However, Aydintasbas questions Washington’s readiness and ability. “Traditionally, it's been the US role, actually, to mediate between Turkey and Israel. The Trump administration, though, is not very focused on it. This is not the kind of stuff the Trump administration excels in – the painstaking, cumbersome work of diplomacy, of roadmaps, confidence-building measures and so on," she said. The formidable strength of both the Israeli and Turkish militaries serves as a strong deterrent against open conflict. Yet, as both nations vie for influence across overlapping arenas – from the Gulf States to the Horn of Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean – the risk of escalation and regional destabilisation continues to cast a long shadow.

    6 min
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RFI goes behind-the-scenes of one of the week's major stories.

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  • Creator
    RFI English
  • Years Active
    2017 - 2026
  • Episodes
    33
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    © Radio France Internationale
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