Run the Numbers

CJ Gustafson
  • 5,0 (54)
  • МЕНЕДЖМЕНТ
  • ДВАЖДЫ В НЕДЕЛЮ

Run the Numbers is a twice-weekly podcast about financial metrics and business models, designed for ambitious people operating tech startups. It's a collection of things host CJ Gustafson (CFO at Partstech and writer of Mostly Metrics) has learned and thought about in the trenches as a tech CFO. This show is meant to serve as a playbook of sorts for the stuff CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, both from experience and from copying people smarter than himself. Topics frequently touch upon Startup SaaS Metrics, Annual Budgeting, Financial Forecasting, Headcount, Equity, Dilution, and Fundraising – and how all of these drive business performance and growth. cjgustafson.substack.com

  1. Inside the AI Feedback Loop: Nvidia, OpenAI, and the Bubble Building Itself

    -20 Ч

    Inside the AI Feedback Loop: Nvidia, OpenAI, and the Bubble Building Itself

    Check out Mostly Growth and get episodes early. Available on all platforms. * YouTube * Spotify * Apple In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the question on everyone’s mind: are we in an AI bubble? What starts as a lighthearted riff on the U.S. Postal Service launching a podcast quickly spirals into a sharp, funny breakdown of today’s AI hype cycle — from Nvidia, OpenAI, and AMD trading money and GPUs in a trillion-dollar feedback loop, to startups burning cash chasing “AI-powered” everything. The trio share real examples of when AI helps and when it backfires (including one newsletter that totally tanked), debate whether companies are over-optimizing for automation, and laugh through the absurdity of the hype while grounding it in practical insights on product, finance, and growth. Timestamps: 00:00 Preview and Intro 00:14 Are We in an AI Bubble? 00:44 The AI Feedback Loop: Nvidia, OpenAI, and AMD 01:00 Perplexity, We Caught You (Again) 02:18 The USPS Podcast and the End of Original Ideas 04:24 How the Team Actually Uses AI at Work 06:07 CJ’s DIY Dunning Saga 08:38 When Automation Goes Too Far 10:49 The Perplexity Gaslight Moment 13:27 AI vs. AI: Outsmarting Resume Screeners 16:09 What Recruiters Really Think of AI Resumes 17:17 The Chief of Staff Hiring Story 19:15 Is AI Adoption Already Slowing Down? 22:42 The “Crossing the Chasm” Moment for AI Tools 26:22 Bundling AI Like Streaming Services 28:49 Everyone’s Paying Everyone: The Circular AI Economy 31:15 Betting Big on AGI and Data Centers 34:09 The Margin: AI Erotica and Peak Absurdity 35:23 OpenAI’s Token Leaderboard and Other Blunders 41:43 What Kyle Tried This Week: Building an AI Agent 44:52 Wrap-Up and Outro Episodes Referenced: 5,762 Job Applications. Zero Offers. Episodes Referenced: 5,762 Job Applications. Zero Offers. Why Only 2% of Startups Make It The War for Talent is just getting started | Joe Floyd Links: https://usps-mailin-it.simplecast.com/ https://i.imgflip.com/a92oy5.jpg https://tabs.inc/webinar/tabs-agent https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/business/ai-chatbot-prompts-resumes.html?_bhlid=1b5906cdc6781a738a150d9c32f846ebf11fc318 https://substack.com/home/post/p-175615945 https://ramp.com/data/ai-index?utm_source=econlab.substack.com https://medium.com/@samuelvandeth/crossing-the-chasm-162802d1cf27 https://x.com/TrungTPhan/status/1922669292929024017/photo/1 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1977902195472322620?s=42 https://topline.beehiiv.com/p/the-era-of-haves-and-have-nots https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd2qv58yl5o https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cj-gustafson-13140948_imagine-getting-called-into-your-cfos-office-activity-7381681514532458496-NOqa/ https://fortune.com/2025/10/01/red-lobster-ceo-damola-adamolekun-comeback-plan-bankruptcy/ https://fortune.com/2024/11/13/red-lobster-ceo-damola-adamolekun-says-endless-shrimp-is-never-coming-back/# https://www.relay.app/ Today’s podcast is brought to you by Metronome You just launched your new AI product. The new pricing page looks great. But behind it? Last-minute glue code, messy spreadsheets, and running ad-hoc queries to figure out what to bill. Customers get invoices they can’t understand. Engineers are chasing billing bugs. Finance can’t close the books. With Metronome, you hand it all off to the real-time billing infrastructure that just works—reliable, flexible, and built to grow with you. We turn raw usage events into accurate invoices, give customers bills they actually understand, and keep every team in sync in real time. Whether you’re launching usage-based pricing, managing enterprise contracts, or rolling out new AI services, Metronome does the heavy lifting so you can focus on your product, not your billing. That’s why some of the fastest-growing companies in the world, like OpenAI and Anthropic, run their billing on Metronome. Visit metronome.com to learn more. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    47 мин.
  2. Cash Flow, Control, and Company-Building with Ivan Makarov of Andreessen Horowitz

    -2 ДН.

    Cash Flow, Control, and Company-Building with Ivan Makarov of Andreessen Horowitz

    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson sits down with Ivan Makarov, Operating Partner at Andreessen Horowitz and former VP of Finance at Webflow, to explore what it takes to build a finance function from scratch inside a fast-growing startup. Ivan shares lessons from the trenches—how to decide between outsourcing and hiring in-house, what makes a great first finance hire, and why early-stage companies often run out of cash before they run out of ideas. He also dives into fundraising pitfalls, audit readiness, and the tools that make up a modern finance stack. Beyond the spreadsheets, Ivan opens up about the shift from operator to venture partner, the value of helping founders avoid his past mistakes, and what makes an offsite actually work. — LINKS: Ivan Makarov on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivansmakarov/ Andreessen Horowitz: https://a16z.com/ CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222 Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com — RELATED EPISODES: Webflow’s VP Finance Ivan Makarov on Understanding Startup Equity: Portfolio Operations: This Is What You Actually Have To Do To Make Sure a Company Is Successful: Brex COO/CFO Michael Tannenbaum on Taking Risks 996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaos — TIMESTAMPS: (00:00:00) Preview, Intro (00:01:18) Meet Ivan Makarov of Andreessen Horowitz & Episode Setup (00:02:39) Sponsor – Tipalti | Aleph | Rillet (00:06:51) From Webflow to Andreessen: Becoming an Operating Partner (00:09:19) When and Why Founders Hire Their First Finance Leader (00:12:52) Hiring Early in Complex or Regulated Industries (00:13:58) The First Finance Hire in 2025 vs. 2015 (00:15:46) Sponsor – Fidelity Private Shares | Mercury | RightRev (00:19:02) The Many Hats of Finance Leaders & The Rise of RevOps (00:24:55) What Founders Look For: Startup DNA and Work Ethic (00:26:05) Grind Culture, Return to Office, and New Expectations (00:28:20) From BizOps to RevOps: How Finance Roles Are Evolving (00:31:57) The First 12 Months of a Finance Leader’s Playbook (00:35:05) Choosing Audit Partners and Avoiding Hidden Costs (00:36:32) Why Startups Really Fail — Running Out of Cash (00:39:16) Cash Controls, Banking Diversification, and Fraud Prevention (00:43:48) Fundraising Red Flags: Metrics, Definitions, and Diligence (00:47:50) 409A Valuations, Equity Clarity & Candidate Questions (00:50:09) The Modern Finance Tech Stack & Gen 3 Tools (00:55:05) AI’s Impact: Replacing Labor, Not People (01:00:00) Offsites, Team Building & The Future of Finance Leadership (01:02:28) Wrapping Up: Reflections, Gratitude & Closing Credits — SPONSORS: Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more. Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run Rillet is the AI-native ERP modern finance teams are switching to because it’s faster, simpler, and 100% built for how teams operate today. See how fast your team can move. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/metrics Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off. Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo. #RunTheNumbersPodcast #StartupFinance #VentureCapital #CFOInsights #Leadership This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    1 ч. 3 мин.
  3. Circular Finance, $1T Dreams, and the AI War for Talent with Joe Floyd of Emergence Capital

    -5 ДН.

    Circular Finance, $1T Dreams, and the AI War for Talent with Joe Floyd of Emergence Capital

    In this episode, CJ sits down with Joe Floyd, General Partner at Emergence Capital, for a candid conversation about the venture landscape reshaped by AI. They unpack how acqui-hires are rewriting the social contract between founders and investors, why AI engineers are commanding “boy band money,” and how SaaS playbooks are being torn up and rebuilt in real time. Joe explains the economics of AI-native startups — from circular capital flows to model-provider costs — and explores whether the next trillion-dollar private company could come from this new wave. Along the way, they discuss valuation frenzy, headcount discipline, and why curiosity might be the most valuable skill in tech today. — LINKS: Joe Floyd on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joefloyd/ HarbourVest Partners: https://www.emcap.com/ CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222 Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com RELATED EPISODES: Why Fundraising Has Slowed Down: Insights from Emergence Capital’s Benchmarking Report: From Credit Karma to Notion: CFO Rama Katkar on Leading Finance Through Every Growth Stage: — TIMESTAMPS: (00:00:00) Preview and Intro (00:00:54) Opening and Episode Overview (00:02:53) Sponsor – RightRev | Tipalti | Aleph (00:07:07) Back to the Office and Startup Pace in San Francisco (00:08:40) AI Tooling Experiments and the Risk of Short-Term Hype (00:10:19) Building Stickier AI Products and Competing in Crowded Markets (00:12:27) SaaS Moats, Product-Market Fit, and the AI Shift (00:14:00) How Productivity Platforms Use AI To Stay Sticky (00:15:58) Continuous Authentication and the Next Wave of Security Tech (00:16:36) Sponsor – Rillet | Fidelity Private Shares | Mercury (00:19:54) Acqui-Hires, the Social Contract, and the War for AI Talent (00:22:42) Stock-Based Comp and the Economics of Attracting Engineers (00:24:39) The New Go-to-Market Playbook and Curiosity as a Superpower (00:27:59) AI’s Impact on Sales, Forecasting, and Buyer Behavior (00:29:11) Coding Agents, Headcount Reduction, and the Future of Engineering (00:32:21) Building Defensible IP and Competing in the LLM Ecosystem (00:34:34) AI ROI, Payback Periods, and the Search for Efficiency (00:37:17) Valuations, Fund Cycles, and the Venture Market Reset (00:40:20) The Circular Flow of AI Capital and Infrastructure Overbuild (00:45:37) AI Pricing Models, Platform Wars, and Open Source Futures (00:50:02) The Race to the First $1 Trillion Private Company (00:51:09) Credits and Outro — SPONSORS: Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off. Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo. Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more. Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run Rillet is the AI-native ERP modern finance teams are switching to because it’s faster, simpler, and 100% built for how teams operate today. See how fast your team can move. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/metrics #RunTheNumbersPodcast #VentureCapital #ArtificialIntelligence #StartupStrategy #FutureOfWork This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    51 мин.
  4. How to Crush Your Keynote (Even If You’re Dying Inside)

    11 ОКТ.

    How to Crush Your Keynote (Even If You’re Dying Inside)

    Check out Mostly Growth and get episodes early. Available on all platforms. * YouTube * Spotify * Apple Conference season is back, and CJ and Kyle are swapping stories from the stage—how to nail a keynote, whether conferences are worth the money, and why your walkout song matters more than you think. From there, they dig into a new a16z report revealing where AI startups are actually spending their dollars, and CJ shares results from his summer survey showing that CFOs talk a big game about measuring AI ROI—but nobody knows how to do it. The crew also unpacks how SaaS companies like Slack are bundling AI into their products and hiking prices, before spiraling into a late-night “potentially reliable” rabbit hole featuring a Soviet pole vaulter, beat-and-raise forecasting, and J. Edgar Hoover. They close with lessons on pricing in the real world (yes, Amsterdam’s architecture is involved) and one experiment CJ tried this week. Timestamps: 00:00 Preview and Intro 02:03 Walkout Songs & Kicking Off Conference Season 04:12 Sponsored Segment — Metronome 05:16 How To Give a Great Keynote and Not Bore the Room 11:16 Are Conferences Worth the Money 16:02 What AI Companies Are Actually Paying For — The a16z Report 21:56 Summer Survey Results: The Elusive ROI of AI 23:56 Why No One Knows How To Measure ROI on AI 29:38 SaaS Companies Forcing AI — Bundling, Pricing, and Pushback 35:32 A Potentially Reliable Thing I Read at 2 AM 36:02 Soviet Pole Vaulter, Beat-and-Raise Forecasting & Hoover’s Borders 41:02 Pricing in the Real World — Lessons from Amsterdam’s Skinny Houses 44:37 Something I Tried This Week — Fixyer Episodes Referenced: ⁠Are You Bad at LinkedIn… or Is the Algorithm Lying?⁠ ⁠Why Founders Are Posting Sad Dinners⁠ Links: ⁠ ⁠ ⁠ https://www.getmobly.com/⁠ ⁠https://a16z.com/the-ai-application-spending-report-where-startup-dollars-really-go/⁠ ⁠https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/how-to-nail-your-next-big-talk⁠ ⁠https://www.leahtharin.com/p/113-vincent-pierri-how-to-deal-with⁠ ⁠https://www.freepik.com/⁠ ⁠https://cluely.com/⁠ ⁠https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/it-was-the-summer-of-25⁠ ⁠https://www.crescendo.ai/⁠ ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/posts/justintropic_slack-just-raised-prices-125-by-forcing-activity-7379132597009870848-XI6N/⁠ ⁠https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/what-a-soviet-era-pole-vaulter-can-teach-us-about-beating-and-raising⁠ ⁠https://www.nytimes.com/1972/05/03/archives/j-edgar-hoover-made-the-fbi-formidable-with-politics-publicity-and.html⁠ ⁠https://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/73vh2j/til_that_the_dutch_government_once_enforced_a_tax/⁠ ⁠https://www.clearspaceliving.com/blog/why-dutch-stairs-are-so-steep/⁠ ⁠https://mjwrightnz.wordpress.com/2012/10/28/amsterdams-taxing-narrow-houses/⁠ ⁠https://www.fyxer.com/ Today’s podcast is brought to you by Metronome You just launched your new AI product. The new pricing page looks great. But behind it? Last-minute glue code, messy spreadsheets, and running ad-hoc queries to figure out what to bill. Customers get invoices they can’t understand. Engineers are chasing billing bugs. Finance can’t close the books. With Metronome, you hand it all off to the real-time billing infrastructure that just works—reliable, flexible, and built to grow with you. We turn raw usage events into accurate invoices, give customers bills they actually understand, and keep every team in sync in real time. Whether you’re launching usage-based pricing, managing enterprise contracts, or rolling out new AI services, Metronome does the heavy lifting so you can focus on your product, not your billing. That’s why some of the fastest-growing companies in the world, like OpenAI and Anthropic, run their billing on Metronome. Visit metronome.com to learn more. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    47 мин.
  5. From Take-Privates to AI: Mapping the New Market Cycle with Scott Voss

    9 ОКТ.

    From Take-Privates to AI: Mapping the New Market Cycle with Scott Voss

    Private markets are swelling, public markets are shrinking, and the line between the two has never been blurrier. In this episode, CJ sits down with Scott Voss, Managing Partner at HarbourVest, to make sense of what’s happening across venture, private equity, credit, and secondaries. Scott explains why companies like SpaceX and OpenAI are now valued alongside public giants, how the surge in take-privates is reshaping corporate strategy, and what happens when the quarterly earnings pressure disappears. They dive into the rise of GP-led deals, the evolving role of private credit as the “third voice in the room,” and why liquidity—not scarcity—will define this cycle. Scott also breaks down the growing appeal of evergreen and permanent capital structures, plus what AI mega-deals signal about the next phase of private investing. — LINKS: Scott Voss on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-voss-b91b94/ HarbourVest Partners: https://www.harbourvest.com CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222 Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com RELATED EPISODES: Secondaries, Continuation Vehicles, and Sidecar Funds: Private Equity with HarbourVest’s Scott Voss - — TIMESTAMPS: (00:00:00) Preview and Intro (00:02:49) Sponsor – Mercury | RightRev | Tipalti (00:06:43) Opening Conversation (00:07:23) The Blurring Line Between Public and Private (00:09:36) The Rise of Mega Venture (00:11:20) The First $10 Trillion Company (00:12:28) The Shrinking Public Markets (00:13:09) Take-Private Playbook (00:14:04) Why Companies Go Private (00:16:00) Sponsor – Aleph | Rillet | Fidelity Private Shares (00:19:21) Efficiency and Exits (00:23:15) Liquidity in Private Markets (00:24:01) Secondaries and GP-Led Deals (00:27:14) Yale and the Secondary Market (00:29:09) Innovation and the Rise of GP-to-GP Trades (00:30:16) Liquidity Cycles and Interest Rates (00:33:18) The Third Voice in the Room – Private Credit (00:34:44) Private Credit and GP-Led Deals (00:36:02) Interest Rates and Deal Spreads (00:37:15) The Major Players in Private Credit (00:38:09) Regulation and Risk (00:39:25) Private Credit vs. Traditional Lending (00:40:33) Evergreen and Permanent Capital (00:45:57) Expanding Access to Private Markets (00:47:03) Understanding the Cap Table (00:47:44) AI Deals and Consolidation (00:50:00) The Evolution of AI and Blockchain (00:53:20) Funding Innovation and Risk (00:55:28) Lessons From Investing (00:55:39) Nostalgia and Life Phases (00:57:06) Nostalgia and the 1990s (00:59:21) Learn, Earn, and Return (01:00:45) Talking Nostalgia at Dinners (01:01:27) Summer Surfing (01:02:25) Wrap-Up and Closing — SPONSORS: Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off. Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo. Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more. Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run Rillet is the AI-native ERP modern finance teams are switching to because it’s faster, simpler, and 100% built for how teams operate today. See how fast your team can move. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/metrics #RunTheNumbersPodcast #PrivateMarkets #VentureCapital #TakePrivate #FinanceLeadership This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    1 ч. 3 мин.
  6. From Credit Karma to Notion: CFO Rama Katkar on Leading Finance Through Every Growth Stage

    6 ОКТ.

    From Credit Karma to Notion: CFO Rama Katkar on Leading Finance Through Every Growth Stage

    Rama Katkar has helped steer some of the most iconic companies in tech through moments of scale and transformation. Now CFO at Notion and formerly a finance leader at Instacart and Credit Karma, she joins CJ to unpack what it means to build a modern finance function inside a product-led growth company. They discuss how to design finance for velocity without losing discipline, the art of forecasting when virality drives your business, and why Notion’s path to profitability looks different from its peers. Rama also shares lessons from scaling Credit Karma through its $8.1B acquisition by Intuit, what she learned about IPO readiness at Instacart, and how finance leaders can balance ambition with realism in uncertain markets. — LINKS: Rama Katkar on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ramakatkar/ Notion: https://www.notion.so/ CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222 Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com RELATED EPISODES: “Let’s Just See What Breaks” — Intuit’s CFO on Being a Disruptor When You’re Already the Incumbent— — TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Preview – Credit Karma, Instacart, and the Road to Notion (00:01:14) Welcome & Episode Overview – Rama Katkar, CFO of Notion (00:02:22) Sponsor – Fidelity Private Shares | Mercury | RightRev (00:06:10) Interview Begins – From Dinner Conversations to Notion’s Pricing Evolution (00:09:20) Early Launch of Notion AI and Add-On Pricing (00:12:40) Community-Led Growth and Notion’s Viral Flywheel (00:14:38) Sponsor – Tipalti | Aleph | Rillet (00:18:39) Who Adopts Notion First? Product, Design, and Engineering (00:20:32) Turning Free Users Into Paid Teams (00:22:09) Why Notion Added an Enterprise Sales Motion (00:26:29) The CFO’s Long Game: Balancing Free Users and Cost (00:30:44) How Notion Experiments With AI Pricing (00:32:42) Rama’s Three-Part Framework for Forecasting (00:36:38) Why Notion Plans on a Six-Month Cadence (00:40:56) Transition – From Forecasting to M&A: Credit Karma’s Wild Ride (00:41:31) Selling Credit Karma During the Pandemic and DOJ Review (00:44:04) Closing the Deal With Intuit (00:49:47) Why the Org Chart Is the Most Important M&A Slide (00:52:08) The Long-Ass Lightning Round (00:56:45) Career Advice to Her Younger Self – Context Over Calculation — SPONSORS: Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off. Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo. Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more. Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run Rillet is the AI-native ERP modern finance teams are switching to because it’s faster, simpler, and 100% built for how teams operate today. See how fast your team can move. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/metrics #CFOInsights #StartupFinance #NotionHQ #ProductLedGrowth #RunTheNumbersPodcast This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    58 мин.
  7. SEO’s Collapse, Job Hunt Grind & Cone King Bob

    4 ОКТ.

    SEO’s Collapse, Job Hunt Grind & Cone King Bob

    Check out Mostly Growth and get episodes early. Available on all platforms. * YouTube * Spotify * Apple AI may be rewriting the playbook for growth, but it’s also leaving behind some of the old startup gospel. CJ and Kyle (with Ben jumping in) dig into what happens when the “rules” no longer fit — from dead frameworks and disappearing SEO traffic to board members quietly checking out. Is T2D3 Dead? Did AI Kill It? The “triple-triple-double-double-double” path to $100M ARR worked in the old SaaS world. But what happens when AI companies blow past $100M in less than a year — often with questionable margins and pass-through revenue? SEO Down 20–40%: Is AEO the Savior? Google traffic is tanking. ChatGPT is rewriting recommendations. Is “AI Engine Optimization” the new growth channel, or just SEO with a different wrapper? The Brutal Tech Job Market CS grads face unemployment rates double those of art history majors. With 5,000+ applications going nowhere, does anyone get hired without networking or Loom videos anymore? Is Your Board Quiet Quitting? When growth slows and AI isn’t your story, some VCs go ghost. From missing intros to pushing for M&A, boards are quietly exiting stage left. Business Blunders * Hospital Bed LinkedIn Photos: Hustle so hard you end up in the ER (and still post about it). * The @Company Non-Tag: Execs copy-paste updates but forget to actually tag anyone. Peak passive-aggressive LinkedIn. * Ramp’s Y-Axis Crime: A 0.4% bump in weekend meals turned into a chart that looked like the apocalypse. Two burritos never looked so big. Pricing in the Real World: Bob’s Barricades It’s not Bob, it’s Happy — and he’s quietly running a barricade rental empire. Fifty cents per cone, thousands per site, tens of millions a year. The most Florida business model you’ve ever heard. Something We Tried This Week Kyle runs a test with Typeform — what worked, what didn’t, and what it says about the state of survey tools today. Today’s podcast is brought to you by Metronome You just launched your new AI product. The new pricing page looks great. But behind it? Last-minute glue code, messy spreadsheets, and running ad-hoc queries to figure out what to bill. Customers get invoices they can’t understand. Engineers are chasing billing bugs. Finance can’t close the books. With Metronome, you hand it all off to the real-time billing infrastructure that just works—reliable, flexible, and built to grow with you. We turn raw usage events into accurate invoices, give customers bills they actually understand, and keep every team in sync in real time. Whether you’re launching usage-based pricing, managing enterprise contracts, or rolling out new AI services, Metronome does the heavy lifting so you can focus on your product, not your billing. That’s why some of the fastest-growing companies in the world, like OpenAI and Anthropic, run their billing on Metronome. Visit metronome.com to learn more. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    57 мин.
  8. Running a Company Like It Could Go Public Tomorrow with CFO Chad Gold

    2 ОКТ.

    Running a Company Like It Could Go Public Tomorrow with CFO Chad Gold

    The IPO market may be slowing down, but the discipline of operating like a public company has never been more important. In this episode, CJ is joined by Chad Gold, CFO of FullStory and veteran operator with previous stints at G2, SalesLoft, and Rubicon, to discuss how capital markets and financing strategies are shifting in real time. Chad explains why more companies are staying private longer, how the rise of private credit is changing the CFO toolkit, and why building IPO-ready discipline matters even if you never go public. The conversation also dives into one of his specialties—pricing models and sales incentives—covering how seat-based, usage, and blended structures influence rep behavior, comp plans, and long-term revenue quality, as well as how the wrong incentives can quietly derail a business. Finally, Chad reflects on lessons from his early career at Home Depot and how fundamentals from retail operations still inform his instincts in SaaS today. — LINKS: Chad Gold on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chadgold/ Fullstory: https://www.fullstory.com/ CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222 Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com RELATED EPISODES: G2 CFO Chad Gold on Building A Durable Career as a Venture Backed Exec: Big Systems Thinking for Building a Finance Org: Advice From a Zoom Hypergrowth Survivor: — TIMESTAMPS: (02:14) Sponsors – Mercury | RightRev | Tipalti (06:10) What’s New at FullStory (09:22) Hypotheses, Data, and Unlocking Use Cases (10:13) Early CFO Career and the Evolution of Data (11:09) From Deterministic Models to Analytics-Driven Forecasting (12:17) Cohorts, Segmentation, and Revenue Quality (13:17) Why Companies Stay Private Longer (15:28) Sponsors – Aleph | Rillet | Fidelity P.S. (19:01) Capital Flows Into Hot Sectors Like AI and Cybersecurity (20:20) More Companies Going Private Than Public (21:41) Costs and Tradeoffs of Being Public (22:46) Secondary Markets and Access to Top Companies (24:14) Staying Private Longer and CFO Planning (25:29) Keeping the Org Exit-Ready (26:10) The Rise of Private Credit (27:37) Banks vs. Venture Debt After SVB (30:47) Pricing Models Across Chad’s CFO Roles (35:47) How to Incentivize Sales Reps Across Pricing Models (43:26) Lessons From Home Depot + Lightning Round — SPONSORS: Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo. Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more. Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run Rillet is the AI-native ERP modern finance teams are switching to because it’s faster, simpler, and 100% built for how teams operate today. See how fast your team can move. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/metrics Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off. #CFOInsights #SaaSFinance #CapitalMarkets #IPOReady #RevenueStrategy #GrowthStageCFO This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com

    57 мин.
См. все (240)

5
из 5
Оценок: 54

Об этом подкасте

Run the Numbers is a twice-weekly podcast about financial metrics and business models, designed for ambitious people operating tech startups. It's a collection of things host CJ Gustafson (CFO at Partstech and writer of Mostly Metrics) has learned and thought about in the trenches as a tech CFO. This show is meant to serve as a playbook of sorts for the stuff CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, both from experience and from copying people smarter than himself. Topics frequently touch upon Startup SaaS Metrics, Annual Budgeting, Financial Forecasting, Headcount, Equity, Dilution, and Fundraising – and how all of these drive business performance and growth. cjgustafson.substack.com

Информация

  • Автор
    CJ Gustafson
  • Годы выхода
    2024 - 2025
  • Выпуски
    240
  • Ограничения
    Без ненормативной лексики
  • Авторские права
    © Mostly LLC
  • Сайт подкаста
    Run the Numbers

Вам может также понравиться