LessWrong (30+ Karma)

LessWrong

Audio narrations of LessWrong posts.

  1. 4H AGO

    “The nature of LLM algorithmic progress” by Steven Byrnes

    There's a lot of talk about “algorithmic progress” in LLMs, especially in the context of exponentially-improving algorithmic efficiency. For example: Epoch AI: “[training] compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved approximately every 8 months”. Dario Amodei 2025: “I'd guess the number today is maybe ~4x/year”. Gundlach et al. 2025a “Price of Progress”: “Isolating out open models to control for competition effects and dividing by hardware price declines, we estimate that algorithmic efficiency progress is around 3× per year”. It's nice to see three independent sources reach almost exactly the same conclusion—halving times of 8 months, 6 months, and 7½ months respectively. Surely a sign that the conclusion is solid! …Haha, just kidding! I’ll argue that these three bullet points are hiding three totally different stories. The first two bullets are about training efficiency, and I’ll argue that both are deeply misleading (each for a different reason!). The third is about inference efficiency, which I think is right, and mostly explained by distillation of ever-better frontier models into their “mini” cousins. source Tl;dr / outline §1 is my attempted big-picture take on what “algorithmic progress” has looked like in LLMs. I split it into four categories: [...] --- Outline: (01:48) Tl;dr / outline (04:00) Status of this post (04:12) 1. The big picture of LLM algorithmic progress, as I understand it right now (04:19) 1.1. Stereotypical algorithmic efficiency improvements: there's the Transformer itself, and ... well, actually, not much else to speak of (06:36) 1.2. Optimizations: Let's say up to 20×, but there's a ceiling (07:47) 1.3. Data-related improvements (09:40) 1.4. Algorithmic changes that are not really quantifiable as efficiency (10:25) 2. Explaining away the two training-efficiency exponential claims (10:46) 2.1. The Epoch 8-month halving time claim is a weird artifact of their methodology (12:33) 2.2. The Dario 4x/year claim is I think just confused (17:28) 3. Sanity-check: nanochat (19:43) 4. Optional bonus section: why does this matter? The original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: February 5th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sGNFtWbXiLJg2hLzK/the-nature-of-llm-algorithmic-progress --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    23 min

  2. 4H AGO

    “Preparing for a Warning Shot” by Noah Birnbaum

    Crossposted to the EA Forum and my Substack. Confidence level: moderate uncertainty and not that concrete (yet). Exploratory, but I think this is plausibly important and underexplored. TL;DR Early AI safety arguments often assumed we wouldn’t get meaningful warning shots (a non-existential public display of misalignment) before catastrophic misalignment, meaning things would go from “seems fine” to “we lose” pretty quickly. Given what we now know about AI development (model weight changes, jagged capabilities, slow or fizzled takeoff), that assumption looks weaker than it used to. Some people gesture at “warning shots,” but almost no one is working on what we should do in anticipation. That seems like a mistake. Preparing for warning shots—especially ambiguous ones—could be a high-leverage and neglected area of AI Safety. The classic “no warning shot” picture A common view in early AI safety research—associated especially with Yudkowsky and Bostrom—was roughly: A sufficiently intelligent misaligned system would know that revealing misalignment while weak is bad for it. So if things go wrong, they go wrong suddenly (AKA a sharp left turn). Therefore, we shouldn’t expect intermediate failures that clearly demonstrate large scale risks before we know that it's too late. If this picture is [...] --- Outline: (00:24) TL;DR (01:07) The classic no warning shot picture (01:51) Why this picture now looks less likely (03:50) Warning shots can shift the Overton Window (05:07) Preparedness matters because warning shots could be ambiguous (07:10) Risks and perverse incentives (07:47) A speculative implication for AI safety research (08:25) Conclusion The original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: February 5th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GKtwwqusm4vxqkChc/preparing-for-a-warning-shot --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    9 min

  3. 6H AGO

    “AI #154: Claw Your Way To The Top” by Zvi

    Remember OpenClaw and Moltbook? One might say they already seem a little quaint. So earlier-this-week. That's the internet having an absurdly short attention span, rather than those events not being important. They were definitely important. They were also early. It is not quite time for AI social networks or fully unleashed autonomous AI agents. The security issues have not been sorted out, and reliability and efficiency aren’t quite there. There's two types of reactions to that. The wrong one is ‘oh it is all hype.’ The right one is ‘we’ll get back to this in a few months.’ Other highlights of the week include reactions to Dario Amodei's essay The Adolescence of Technology. The essay was trying to do many things for many people. In some ways it did a good job. In other ways, especially when discussing existential risks and those more concerned than Dario, it let us down. Everyone excited for the Super Bowl? Table of Contents Language Models Offer Mundane Utility. Piloting on the surface of Mars. Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility. Judgment humans trust. Huh, Upgrades. OpenAI Codex has an app. AI [...] --- Outline: (01:13) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility (03:45) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility (04:20) Huh, Upgrades (06:13) They Got Served, They Served Back, Now It's On (15:15) On Your Marks (18:42) Get My Agent On The Line (19:57) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon (23:14) Copyright Confrontation (23:47) A Young Lady's Illustrated Primer (24:24) Unprompted Attention (24:36) Get Involved (28:12) Introducing (28:40) State of AI Report 2026 (36:18) In Other AI News (40:45) Autonomous Killer Robots (42:11) Show Me the Money (44:46) Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble (47:58) Quiet Speculations (48:54) Seb Krier Says Seb Krier Things (58:07) The Quest for Sane Regulations (58:24) Chip City (01:02:39) The Week in Audio (01:03:00) The Adolescence of Technology (01:03:49) I Won't Stand To Be Disparaged (01:08:31) Constitutional Conversation (01:10:04) Rhetorical Innovation (01:13:51) Don't Panic (01:16:23) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult (01:17:41) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone (01:18:48) The Lighter Side --- First published: February 5th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AMLLKDzjohCNbrA6t/ai-154-claw-your-way-to-the-top --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    1h 21m

  4. 7H AGO

    [Linkpost] “METR have released Time Horizons 1.1” by Sean Herrington

    This is a link post. I just found out that METR released an updated version of their time horizons work with extra tasks and different evaluation infrastructure. This was released on 29th Jan and I think has been overshadowed by the Moltbook stuff. Main points: Similar overall trend since 2021 50% time horizon doubling time went from 165 days with 1.0 to 131 days with 1.1 over the period since 2023 The top model, Claude 4.5 Opus, has gone from a 4h49 time horizon to 5h20 --- First published: February 3rd, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PoXPfSBZXHCRNJhtR/metr-have-released-time-horizons-1-1 Linkpost URL:https://metr.org/blog/2026-1-29-time-horizon-1-1/ --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    1 min

  5. 8H AGO

    “Finding Cruxes: Help Reality Punch You In the Face” by Raemon

    Figuring out "what would actually change your mind?" is among the more important rationality skills. Being able to do change your mind at all is a huge project. But, being able to do it quickly is much more useful than being able to do it at all. Because, then you can interleave the question "what would change my mind?" inside other, more complex planning or thinking. I find this much easier to learn "for real" when I'm thinking specifically about what would change my mind about my decisionmaking. Sure, I could change my belief about abstract philosophy, or physics, or politics... but most of that doesn't actually impact my behavior. There's no way for reality to "push back" if I'm wrong. By contrast, each day, I make a lot of decisions. Some of those decisions are expensive – an hour or more of effort. If I'm spending an hour on something, it's often worth spending a minute or two asking "is this the best way to spend the hour?". I usually have at least one opportunity to practice finding notable cruxes. Previously: "Fluent, Cruxy Predictions" and "Double Crux" While this post stands alone, I wrote it as [...] --- Outline: (01:16) Finding Cruxes (02:15) Helping Reality Punch You In the Face (06:33) Step by Step (06:36) Step 1: Get alternatives (07:29) Step 2: Ask yourself random-ass prompts. (09:24) 3. Try to find scalar units. (10:16) 4. Interpolate between extremes and find the threshold of cruxiness (11:31) 4. Check your intuitive predictions (11:44) 5. Gain more information (11:59) 6. Make a call, but keep an eye out (12:55) Appendix: Doublecrux is not step 1. The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. --- First published: February 5th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wkDdQrBxoGLqPWh2P/finding-cruxes-help-reality-punch-you-in-the-face --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    14 min

  6. 23H AGO

    “Solemn Courage” by aysja

    Every so often it slips. It seems I am writing a book, but I can’t remember why. Somehow, the sentences are supposed to perform that impossible, intimate task: to translate my inner world into another. Yet they sit there so quiescent and small. How could an arrangement of words do anything, let alone reduce that ultimate threat to which it is all supposedly connected: the looming god machines? I look again at the monitor in which the words are contained and suddenly what once felt so raw and powerful deflates into limpness. Why would anyone listen to me, anyway? Have I said anything new? Or is too weird—the strangeness in my head failing to find handholds in other minds? And it floods, these pieces of doubt. Each one flitting by almost unnoticeably, but in the background they build. Then sometimes the flood abates as quickly as it came. The world is made of scary stuff: we really may all die, and I really might not be capable of reducing or even much affecting that terrifying threat. Yet somehow this has little to do with the words on the page. The outcomes matter—they do—but that isn’t where the motivation [...] --- First published: February 4th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fnRqyuceyLuZRFFbZ/solemn-courage-1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    10 min

  7. 1D AGO

    “Post-AGI Economics As If Nothing Ever Happens” by Jan_Kulveit

    When economists think and write about the post-AGI world, they often rely on the implicit assumption that parameters may change, but fundamentally, structurally, not much happens. And if it does, it's maybe one or two empirical facts, but nothing too fundamental. This mostly worked for all sorts of other technologies, where technologists would predict society to be radically transformed e.g. by everyone having most of humanity's knowledge available for free all the time, or everyone having an ability to instantly communicate with almost anyone else. [1] But it will not work for AGI, and as a result, most of the econ modelling of the post-AGI world is irrelevant or actively misleading [2], making people who rely on it more confused than if they just thought “this is hard to think about so I don’t know”. Econ reasoning from high level perspective Econ reasoning is trying to do something like projecting the extremely high dimensional reality into something like 10 real numbers and a few differential equations. All the hard cognitive work is in the projection. Solving a bunch of differential equations impresses the general audience, and historically may have worked as some sort of proof of [...] --- Outline: (00:57) Econ reasoning from high level perspective (02:51) Econ reasoning applied to post-AGI situations The original text contained 10 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: February 4th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fL7g3fuMQLssbHd6Y/post-agi-economics-as-if-nothing-ever-happens --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    17 min

  8. 1D AGO

    “New AI safety funding newsletter” by Bryce Robertson

    We’ve had feedback from several people running AI safety projects that it can be a pain tracking various funding sources and their application windows. To help make it easier, AISafety.com has launched the AI Safety Funding newsletter (which you can subscribe to here). It lists all newly announced funding opportunities relevant to individuals and orgs working on AI x-risk, and any opportunities which are closing soon. We expect posts to be about 2x/month. Opportunities will be sourced from the database at AISafety.com/funding, which displays all funders, whether they are currently accepting applications or not. If you want to add yourself as a funder you can do so here. The newsletter will likely evolve as we gather feedback – please feel free to share any thoughts in the comments or via our anonymous feedback form. AISafety.com is operated through a public Discord server with the help of many volunteers, so if you’re interested in contributing or just seeing what we’re up to then feel free to join. Beyond the funding page, the site has 9 other resource pages like upcoming events & training programs, local and online communities, the field map, etc. --- First published: February 3rd, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5wMNcn8sCginw2s9D/new-ai-safety-funding-newsletter --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    2 min
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About

Audio narrations of LessWrong posts.

Information

  • Creator
    LessWrong
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    250
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 All rights reserved
  • Show Website
    LessWrong (30+ Karma)

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