LessWrong posts by zvi

zvi
  • 5.0 (2)
  • TECHNOLOGY
  • UPDATED DAILY

Audio narrations of LessWrong posts by zvi

  1. 10H AGO

    “AI #148: Christmas Break” by Zvi

    Claude Opus 4.5 did so well on the METR task length graph they’re going to need longer tasks, and we still haven’t scored Gemini 3 Pro or GPT-5.2-Codex. Oh, also there's a GPT-5.2-Codex. At week's end we did finally get at least a little of a Christmas break. It was nice. Also nice was that New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed the RAISE Act, giving New York its own version of SB 53. The final version was not what we were hoping it would be, but it still is helpful on the margin. Various people gave their 2026 predictions. Let's put it this way: Buckle up. Table of Contents Language Models Offer Mundane Utility. AI suggests doing the minimum. Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility. Gemini 3 doesn’t believe in itself. Huh, Upgrades. ChatGPT gets some personality knobs to turn. On Your Marks. PostTrainBench shows AIs below human baseline but improving. Claude Opus 4.5 Joins The METR Graph. Expectations were exceeded. Sufficiently Advanced Intelligence. You’re good enough, you’re smart enough. Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon. Don’t worry, the UK PM's got this. Fun With Media Generation. Slop [...] --- Outline: (00:53) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility (02:15) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility (02:55) Huh, Upgrades (03:21) On Your Marks (05:15) Claude Opus 4.5 Joins The METR Graph (12:41) Sufficiently Advanced Intelligence (15:09) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon (18:12) Fun With Media Generation (22:33) You Drive Me Crazy (25:29) They Took Our Jobs (28:45) The Art of the Jailbreak (28:56) Get Involved (29:12) Introducing (32:24) In Other AI News (33:46) Show Me the Money (34:44) Quiet Speculations (38:59) Whistling In The Dark (40:27) Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble (42:20) Americans Really Dislike AI (48:30) The Quest for Sane Regulations (52:32) Chip City (55:55) The Week in Audio (56:45) Rhetorical Innovation (01:00:53) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult (01:02:58) Mom, Owain Evans Is Turning The Models Evil Again (01:06:10) Messages From Janusworld (01:15:22) The Lighter Side --- First published: December 25th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GHW2rhYtnYgEn3tuq/ai-148-christmas-break --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    1h 17m

  2. 1D AGO

    “Zvi’s 2025 In Movies” by Zvi

    Now that I am tracking all the movies I watch via Letterboxd, it seems worthwhile to go over the results at the end of the year, and look for lessons, patterns and highlights. Last year: Zvi's 2024 In Movies. The Ratings Scale You can find all my ratings and reviews on Letterboxd. I do revise from time to time, either on rewatch or changing my mind. I encourage you to follow me there. Letterboxd ratings go from 0.5-5. The scale is trying to measure several things at once. 5: Masterpiece. All-time great film. Will rewatch multiple times. See this film. 4.5: Excellent. Life is meaningfully enriched. Want to rewatch. Probably see this film. 4: Great. Cut above. Very happy I saw. Happy to rewatch. If interested, see this film. 3.5: Very Good. Actively happy I saw. Added value to my life. A worthwhile time. 3: Good. Happy that I saw it, but wouldn’t be a serious mistake to miss it. 2.5: Okay. Watching this was a small mistake. 2: Bad. I immediately regret this decision. Kind of a waste. 1.5: Very bad. If you caused this to [...] --- Outline: (00:24) The Ratings Scale (02:35) The Five Component Model of Movie Ratings (04:10) The Numbers (04:29) Movies Have Decreasing Marginal Returns in Practice (05:24) Very Briefly on the Top Picks and Whether You Should See Them (06:47) Other Notes to Self to Remember (Reprise from 2024) (08:15) The Year of Living Disagreeably (11:05) I Hate Spoilers With the Fire of a Thousand Suns (11:26) You Son Of A Bitch, I'm In (12:36) Theaters Continue To Be Awesome (13:11) Strong Opinions, Strongly Held: I Didn't Like It (19:43) Strong Opinions, Strongly Held: I Did Like It (21:47) Award Show Dreams (22:28) On To 2026 --- First published: December 24th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J4nhntwkoxhk3XJDm/zvi-s-2025-in-movies --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    23 min

  3. 2D AGO

    “Keeping Up Against the Joneses: Balsa’s 2025 Fundraiser” by Zvi

    Several years ago Zvi Mowshowitz founded Balsa Research, a tiny nonprofit research organization currently focused on quantifying the impact of the Jones Act on the American economy, and working towards viable reform proposals. While changing century-old policy is not going to be easy, we continue to see many places where there is neglected groundwork that we’re well positioned to do, and we are improving at doing it with another year of practice under our belts. We’re looking to raise $200,000 to support our work this giving season, though $50,000 would be sufficient to keep the lights on, and we think we are also well positioned to do more with more funding. Funds raised this round will support Balsa's policy advocacy, either in Jones Act and shipping or potentially in other planned cause areas of housing reform and NEPA reform if there is capacity to significantly expand. Donate here to fund our mainline policy work. One additional possibility for Balsa, that would be funded entirely separately if it did happen, is for Zvi Mowshowitz to use Balsa as a piece of philanthropic infrastructure to help guide new philanthropic money coming online in 2026 if there [...] --- Outline: (01:34) What Balsa Got Up to in 2025 (05:42) A quick glance at our budget (06:24) Balsa in 2026, and Our Ask (07:38) Complete the Jones Act policy binder (08:12) Receive and publicize findings from the two funded economic studies (08:33) Fund at least one high-quality study from the labor RFA (09:09) Continue monitoring Section 301 and SHIPS Act developments, contributing input where it seems high-leverage (09:56) What Additional Funding Enables --- First published: December 23rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cE8B9jDoAq9Agtt2K/keeping-up-against-the-joneses-balsa-s-2025-fundraiser --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    12 min

  4. 3D AGO

    “Keeping Up Against the Joneses: Balsa’s 2025 Fundraising Letter” by jenn, Zvi

    Balsa Research is a tiny nonprofit research organization currently focused on quantifying the impact of the Jones Act on the American economy, and working towards viable reform proposals. While changing century-old policy is not going to be easy, we continue to see many places where there is neglected groundwork that we’re well positioned to do, and we are improving at doing it with another year of practice under our belts. We’re looking to raise $200,000 to support our work this giving season, though $50,000 would be sufficient to keep the lights on, and we think we are also well positioned to do more with more funding. Donations will support Balsa's policy advocacy, either in Jones Act and maritime policy reform or potentially in other planned cause areas (housing reform and NEPA reform) if there is capacity to significantly expand. Donate here to fund our mainline policy work. One additional possibility for Balsa, which would be funded entirely separately if it did happen, is for Zvi Mowshowitz to use Balsa as a piece of philanthropic infrastructure to help guide new philanthropic money coming online in 2026 if there is demand. Contact us (hello@balsaresearch.com) if you would like to be involved [...] --- Outline: (01:34) What Balsa Did in 2025 (05:45) A quick glance at our budget (06:27) Balsa in 2026, and Our Ask (07:41) Complete the Jones Act policy binder (08:16) Receive and publicize findings from the two funded economic studies (08:37) Fund at least one high-quality study from the labor RFA (09:13) Continue monitoring Section 301 and SHIPS Act developments, contributing input where it seems high-leverage (10:00) What Additional Funding Enables --- First published: December 22nd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HyfkJuAqN2WLGKi4E/keeping-up-against-the-joneses-balsa-s-2025-fundraising --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    12 min

  5. 3D AGO

    “The Revolution of Rising Expectations” by Zvi

    Internet arguments like the $140,000 Question incident keep happening. The two sides say: Life sucks, you can’t get ahead, you can’t have a family or own a house. What are you talking about, median wages are up, unemployment is low and so on. The economic data is correct. Real wages are indeed up. Costs for food and clothing are way down while quality is up, housing is more expensive than it should be but is not much more expensive relative to incomes. We really do consume vastly more and better food, clothing, housing, healthcare, entertainment, travel, communications, shipping and logistics, information and intelligence. Most things are higher quality. But that does not tell us that buying a socially and legally acceptable basket of goods for a family has gotten easier, nor that the new basket will make us happier. This post is my attempt to reconcile those perspectives. The culprit is the Revolution of Rising Expectations, together with the Revolution of Rising Requirements. The biggest rising expectations are that we will not have to tolerate unpleasant experiences or even dead time, endure meaningful material shortages or accept various forms [...] --- Outline: (01:34) The Revolutions of Rising Expectations (04:37) The Revolution of Rising Requirements (06:52) Whose Line Is It Anyway? (09:17) Thus In This House We Believe The Following (10:21) Real De Facto Required Expenses Are Rising Higher Than Inflation (12:04) Great Expectations (15:41) We Could Fix It (16:52) Man's Search For Meaning (20:06) How Do You Afford Your Rock And Roll Lifestyle? (22:41) Our Price Cheap (27:34) It Takes Two (1) (30:09) It Takes Two (2) (30:45) If So, Then What Are You Going To Do About It, Punk? (34:29) The Revolution of Rising Expectations Redux --- First published: December 22nd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RN58van9PQBGqPxHf/the-revolution-of-rising-expectations --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    37 min

  6. 6D AGO

    “When Were Things The Best?” by Zvi

    People remember their childhood world too fondly. You adapt to it. You forget the parts that sucked, many of which sucked rather really badly. It resonates with you and sticks with you. You think it was better. This is famously true for music, but also in general, including places it makes no sense like ‘most reliable news reporting.’ Matthew Yglesias: Regardless of how old they are, people tend to think that things were better when they were young. As a result, you’d expect more negativity as the median age goes up and up. Very obviously these views are not objective. As a fun and also useful exercise, as part of the affordability sequence, now that we’ve looked at claims of modern impoverishment and asked when things were cheaper, it's time to ask ourselves: When were various things really at their best? In some aspects, yes, the past was better, and those aspects are an important part of the picture. But in many others today is the day and people are wrong about this. I’ll start with the things on the above graph, in order, include some claims from another source, and [...] --- Outline: (01:38) The Most Close-Knit Communities (03:02) The Most Moral Society (04:57) The Least Political Division (05:31) The Happiest Families (06:31) The Most Reliable News Reporting (08:03) The Best Music (10:07) The Best Radio (11:13) The Best Fashion (11:32) The Best Economy (12:03) The Best Movies (13:23) The Best Television (15:00) Best Sporting Events (17:11) The Best Cuisine (18:10) Bonus: The Best Job Security (18:53) The Best Everything (22:15) The Best Information Sources, Electronics, Medical Care, Dental Care, Medical (and Non-Medical) Drugs, Medical Devices, Home Security Systems, Telephone Services and Mobile Phones, Communication, and Delivery Services of All Kinds (22:51) The Best Air Travel (23:33) The Best Cars (23:59) The Best Roads, Traffic and Infrastructure (24:53) The Best Transportation (25:28) It's Getting Better All The Time (28:41) We Should Be Doing Far Better On All This --- First published: December 19th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K3rzQJh3RhaDkREMA/when-were-things-the-best --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    30 min

  7. DEC 18

    “AI #147: Flash Forward” by Zvi

    This week I covered GPT 5.2, which I concluded is a frontier model only for the frontier. OpenAI also gave us Image 1.5 and a new image generation mode inside ChatGPT. Image 1.5 looks comparable to Nana Banana Pro, it's hard to know which is better. They also inked a deal for Disney's characters, then sued Google for copyright infringement on the basis of Google doing all the copyright infringement. As a probable coda to the year's model releases we also got Gemini 3 Flash, which I cover in this post. It is a good model given its speed and price, and likely has a niche. It captures the bulk of Gemini 3 Pro's intelligence quickly, at a low price. The Trump Administration issued a modestly softened version Executive Order on AI, attempting to impose as much of a moratorium banning state AI laws as they can. We may see them in court, on various fronts, or it may amount to little. Their offer, in terms of a ‘federal framework,’ continues to be nothing. a16z issued their ‘federal framework’ proposal, which is also nothing, except also that you should pay them. In non-AI content [...] --- Outline: (01:41) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility (03:44) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility (04:38) Huh, Upgrades (08:21) On Your Marks (10:22) Choose Your Fighter (13:56) Get My Agent On The Line (18:25) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon (21:21) Fun With Media Generation (24:12) Copyright Confrontation (24:39) Overcoming Bias (26:29) Unprompted Attention (27:25) They Took Our Jobs (30:06) Feeling the AGI Take Our Jobs (35:48) The Art of the Jailbreak (36:08) Get Involved (38:08) Introducing (38:57) Gemini Flash 3 (40:58) In Other AI News (41:36) Going Too Meta (46:14) Show Me the Money (46:51) Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble (48:38) Quiet Speculations (50:42) Timelines (51:45) The Quest for Sane Regulations (54:47) My Offer Is Nothing (01:03:03) My Offer Is Nothing, Except Also Pay Me (01:07:26) Chip City (01:14:09) The Week in Audio (01:15:23) Rhetorical Lack Of Innovation (01:25:51) People Really Do Not Like AI (01:29:58) Rhetorical Innovation (01:33:11) Bad Guy With An AI (01:35:33) Misaligned! (01:37:07) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult (01:40:00) Mom, Owain Evans Is Turning The AIs Evil Again (01:46:50) Messages From Janusworld (01:49:55) The Lighter Side --- First published: December 18th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yZ5Aq3iJYMvpZjrqb/ai-147-flash-forward --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    1h 54m

  8. DEC 17

    “The $140K Question: Cost Changes Over Time” by Zvi

    In The $140,000 Question, I went over recent viral claims about poverty in America. The calculations behind the claims were invalid, the central claim (that the ‘true poverty line’ was $140k) was absurd, but the terrible vibes are real. People increasingly feel that financial life is getting harder and that success is out of reach. ‘Real income’ is rising, but costs are rising even more. Before we get to my central explanations for that – the Revolution of Rising Expectations and the Revolution of Rising Requirements – there are calculations and histories to explore, which is what this second post is about. How are costs changing in America, both in absolute terms and compared to real incomes, for key items: Consumer goods, education, health care and housing? That's a huge percentage of where we spend our post-tax money. And how is household wealth actually changing? The economists are right that the basket of goods and services we typically purchase in these areas has greatly increased in both quantity and quality, in spite of various severe supply side problems mostly caused by regulations. That is not what determines whether a person or [...] --- Outline: (01:28) The Debate Continues (03:04) The Cost of Thriving Index Redux (05:05) The Housing Theory Of Everything Remains Undefeated (10:46) Did We Halt the Rise in Healthcare and Education Costs? (15:10) Healthcare Costs (19:53) Higher Education Costs (23:11) Services Productivity is Rising But What Even Is Productivity Measuring (24:58) On Clothing In Particular (25:40) Our Price Free (26:29) By Default Supply Side Is The Problem (29:36) The Kids Are Financially Alright In Historical Terms (33:25) Live Like a Khan (36:15) We Should Be Doing Far Better On All This --- First published: December 17th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HPdQxhQpsXfwLAHp3/the-usd140k-question-cost-changes-over-time --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    38 min
See All (250)

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
2 Ratings

About

Audio narrations of LessWrong posts by zvi

Information

  • Creator
    zvi
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2025
  • Episodes
    250
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2025 All rights reserved
  • Show Website
    LessWrong posts by zvi

You Might Also Like