[Linkpost] “How well can large language models predict the future?” by Forecasting Research Institute

This is a link post.

When will artificial intelligence (AI) match top human forecasters at predicting the future? In a recent podcast episode, Nate Silver predicted 10–15 years. Tyler Cowen disagreed, expecting a 1–2 year timeline. Who's more likely to be right?

Today, the Forecasting Research Institute is excited to release an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark tracking how well large language models (LLMs) forecast real-world events—with evidence that bears directly on this debate. We’re also opening the benchmark for submissions.

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First published:
October 8th, 2025

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5vB2xGgXf7kAAbsF9/how-well-can-large-language-models-predict-the-future

Linkpost URL:
https://forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-forecasting-model-forecastbench-benchmark

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.