EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

EA Forum Team
  • 0,0 (0)
  • TECNOLOGIA
  • DIÁRIO

Audio narrations from the Effective Altruism Forum, including curated posts, posts with 30 karma, and other great writing. If you'd like fewer episodes, subscribe to the "EA Forum (Curated & Popular)" podcast instead.

  1. HÁ 6 H

    “Is the AI Industry in a Bubble?” by Yarrow Bouchard 🔸

    This post has two parts: first, a (non-exhaustive) survey of some indications that the AI industry might be in a financial bubble. Second, an analysis that combines these indications with technical considerations relevant to whether the AI industry is in a bubble. Definition of a "bubble" Here's the Wikipedia definition of a bubble: An economic bubble (also called a speculative bubble or a financial bubble) is a period when current asset prices greatly exceed their intrinsic valuation, being the valuation that the underlying long-term fundamentals justify. Bubbles can be caused by overly optimistic projections about the scale and sustainability of growth (e.g. dot-com bubble), and/or by the belief that intrinsic valuation is no longer relevant when making an investment (e.g. Tulip mania). They have appeared in most asset classes, including equities (e.g. Roaring Twenties), commodities (e.g. Uranium bubble), real estate (e.g. 2000s US housing bubble), and even esoteric assets (e.g. Cryptocurrency bubble). Bubbles usually form as a result of either excess liquidity in markets, and/or changed investor psychology. If we were to operationalize the concept of an AI bubble and whether such a bubble has popped, we could look at several financial measures, including investment in datacentre construction. [...] --- Outline: (00:27) Definition of a bubble (02:13) Opinions on a potential AI bubble (10:47) Suggestive evidence: circular financing (12:16) Direct evidence: small effects on productivity and profitability (18:51) Analysis: can AI companies catch up to expectations? (30:05) Conclusion --- First published: November 16th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/im59y2Au7zC5ofuKe/is-the-ai-industry-in-a-bubble --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    31min

  2. HÁ 10 H

    “Wild Animal Initiative: When does research become impact?” by SiobhanBall

    Wild animal suffering is vast, neglected, and morally urgent. I’m strongly in favour of building a field that can eventually deliver safe, scalable welfare improvements for free-living animals. I also recognise that this area is technically complex and requires foundational research. But after reading WAI's latest annual report, I simply have to ask: When does any of this work actually reduce wild animal suffering? WAI themselves say that ‘it's reasonable to ask whether this will all be worth it’ on p. 28 of their most recent annual report. What then follows is an illustrative case study regarding rabies vaccination, with figures they describe as ‘back of the envelope’ and ‘intentionally crude.’ After 4-5 years and several millions in funding, I can’t find evidence in this report of an intervention, policy change, or measurable welfare improvement driven by WAI's research. What's more concerning is that the report doesn’t spell out a concrete timeline or milestones for when their research is expected to translate into specific welfare interventions or policy changes. Beyond vague phrases like ‘interventions relatively soon’ and a five-year plan to build presence in ecology, there's no clear indication of when wild animals might benefit. [...] --- First published: November 14th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kizAAxyNkDtwShEJ2/wild-animal-initiative-when-does-research-become-impact --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    4min

  3. HÁ 1 DIA

    “EAGxIndia 2025: A Call for Safety/Caution” by Nishit

    As members of the EA community in India, we feel compelled to register our concern about the timing & location of EAGxIndia 2025, scheduled for 13–14 December in New Delhi [1]. December is peak smog season in Delhi—a time when the city's air quality predictably descends into hazardous territory. The average reading breaches 400 (‘Severe' category per the CPCB), with ambient PM2.5 concentration up to 30 times higher than the WHO's recommended safety threshold. As of this drafting, the National Capital Region has logged three consecutive days of sustained "Severe" air quality: with the overall AQI readings of 428 on Nov 11, 418 on Nov 12, and 404 on Nov 13,2025. The decision to convene a major conference during this peak pollution period necessitates at least some direct exposure of participants to ambient PM2.5 levels that constitute a Class 1 carcinogen, inherently elevating the health-risk profile for all attendees. Detailed Notes on Delhi's Winter Air-Quality Crisis: 15 November 2024. People in New Delhi commute through thick winter smog as air quality reaches the “severe” category (AQI ≈ 424) according to the CPCB.  Photo: EPA/Rajat Gupta Every winter—especially after the late‑October Diwali festival—Delhi's Air Quality Index (AQI) drops from “moderate” or [...] --- Outline: (01:18) Detailed Notes on Delhi's Winter Air-Quality Crisis: (04:37) EAGxIndia 2025: Information Gap and Contradictory Protocols (06:34) Sources --- First published: November 15th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7qGHbvbMpCbfJ5gbS/eagxindia-2025-a-call-for-safety-caution --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    9min

  4. HÁ 1 DIA

    “Everyday Clean Air” by Jeff Kaufman 🔸

    When the next pandemic hits our ability to stop it will depend on the infrastructure we already have in place. A key missing piece is clean indoor air. An airborne pathogen can be very hard to contain, and we would want to move fast to limit spread. But how quickly we can get measures in place, and how thoroughly they would work, depends critically on the base we have to build up from. Indoor air today is dirty by default. The air you breathe in is air others have breathed out, complete with a wide range of viruses and bacteria. It's a little gross if you think about it, and people do get sick a lot, but most of the time we just accept the downsides. If something really serious were going around, though, this isn't a risk we'd accept. We'd need clean air: some combination of replacing infected air with outside air (ventilation), physically removing pathogens (purifiers, masks), or inactivating pathogens (far-UVC, glycol vapors). I hear a lot about stockpiling as a way to set us up for clean air when we most need it. Get a lot of masks, air purifiers, far-UVC [...] --- First published: November 15th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2Gv9Ki4KH2ywGhcs5/everyday-clean-air --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    4min

  5. HÁ 1 DIA

    “Prioritise soil animals over farmed invertebrates?” by Vasco Grilo🔸

    Summary I would say the total welfare of soil animals is overdetermined to be much larger than that of farmed invertebrates in absolute terms. The individual welfare per animal-year of soil ants and termites should not differ much from that of farmed invertebrates, and I calculate the population of soil ants and termites is 3.93 M times that of farmed black soldier fly (BSF) larvae and mealworms, and 652 k times that of farmed shrimps. Projects targeting soil animals receive way less funding than ones targeting farmed invertebrates. The Wild Animal Initiative (WAI) granted 460 k$ to projects targeting invertebrates until 7 November 2025. In contrast, the Shrimp Welfare Project (SWP) received 2.9 M$ in 2024. I believe interventions changing land use can increase welfare much more cost-effectively than ones targeting farmed invertebrates. I estimate funding the Centre for Exploratory Altruism Research's (CEARCH's) High Impact Philanthropy Fund (HIPF), which I calculate increases agricultural land by 1.29 k m2-years per $, changes the welfare of soil ants, termites, springtails, mites, and nematodes 3.43 k times as cost-effectively as SWP's Humane Slaughter Initiative (HSI) increases the welfare of shrimps. I recommend research on the welfare of soil animals in different biomes over pursuing whatever land use change interventions naively look the most cost-effective. I have little [...] --- Outline: (00:11) Summary (03:04) The total welfare of soil animals is much larger in absolute terms (08:37) Projects targeting soil animals receive way less funding (09:23) Interventions changing land use can increase welfare much more cost-effectively than ones targeting farmed invertebrates (10:29) I recommend research informing how to increase the welfare of soil animals (11:20) There is no escape from the uncertainty of the effects on soil animals (14:27) Interested in funding research informing how to increase the welfare of soil animals? (14:54) Acknowledgements --- First published: November 15th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7pwjTpiaD4ytj4W9Y/prioritise-soil-animals-over-farmed-invertebrates --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    15min

  6. HÁ 1 DIA

    [Linkpost] “Request for Proposals: AI for Forecasting and Sound Reasoning” by Open Philanthropy

    This is a link post. Our Forecasting team just launched a new RFP focused on using AI to improve human reasoning in a structured and quantified way. The team plans to make grants in the $100k-$1M range for projects lasting between 6 months and 2 years; proposals will be accepted until at least January 30, 2026. The RFP includes two areas of interest: AI for forecasting: We are looking for proposals for AI models that help to make forecasts more accurate or more relevant. We are primarily interested in probabilistic, judgmental forecasting, i.e. quantitative forecasts that cannot be based fully on large sets of structured data. Aside from models that directly produce forecasts, ideally approaching or exceeding human performance on forecasting tasks, we’re also looking to fund work on models that perform one or more of the subtasks involved in using forecasts for decision-making, such as explaining the reasoning behind forecasts or building forecasting models. AI for sound reasoning: Modern AI models are being adopted at a rapid pace throughout society, including for high-stakes decisions in law, academia and policy. We expect this trend to continue over the coming years, and possibly accelerate. It seems crucial to us that models [...] --- First published: November 13th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/odjxgRHGqKAGin8aR/request-for-proposals-ai-for-forecasting-and-sound-reasoning Linkpost URL:https://www.openphilanthropy.org/request-for-proposals-ai-for-forecasting-and-sound-reasoning/ --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    3min

  7. HÁ 1 DIA

    “How to network: lessons from 80,000 Hours’ advising team” by 80000_Hours, Zershaaneh Qureshi

    This post was originally published as a blog post on the 80,000 Hours website. Everyone talks about the importance of networking for a successful career. And they’re right — the people you connect with will shape your habits, the ideas you’re exposed to, and your job opportunities. But how do you actually network well? I (Zershaaneh) asked this question to 80,000 Hours' career advisors, who have helped thousands of people break into high-impact roles. Here's what they recommended. How to network The basics are simple: find people who can help you learn or move forward with your career, or who you can help. Increase your opportunities to connect with them, and try to build genuine relationships with the people you meet. Find the right people  Attend conferences, courses, and social events in your professional community, or one you'd like to be a part of. There are many opportunities to meet like-minded people in person and virtually — we have lots of recommendations to get you started on our community page. Get involved in online discourse. People often use social media, forums, and other online platforms to connect with others and discuss ideas. Whatever your interests are, there's probably an online [...] --- Outline: (00:45) How to network (01:02) Find the right people (02:47) Multiply your opportunities to network (03:47) Have great conversations and build relationships (05:03) Reaching out to people you don't know (06:07) More resources --- First published: November 14th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/M9bpDP79x2GcRPsmv/how-to-network-lessons-from-80-000-hours-advising-team --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    7min

  8. HÁ 2 DIAS

    “If wild animal welfare is intractable, everything is intractable.” by mal_graham🔸

    Author's note: This is an adapted version of my recent talk at EA Global NYC (I’ll add a link when it's available). The content has been adjusted to reflect things I learned from talking to people after my talk. If you saw the talk, you might still be interested in the “some objections” section at the end. Summary Wild animal welfare faces frequent tractability concerns, amounting to the idea that ecosystems are too complex to intervene in without causing harm. However, I suspect these concerns reflect inconsistent justification standards rather than unique intractability. To explore this idea: I provide some context about why people sometimes have tractability concerns about wild animal welfare, providing a concrete example using bird-window collisions. I then describe four approaches to handling uncertainty about indirect effects: spotlighting (focusing on target beneficiaries while ignoring broader impacts), ignoring cluelessness (acting on knowable effects only), assigning precise probabilities to all outcomes, and seeking ecologically inert interventions. I argue that, when applied consistently across cause areas, none of these approaches suggest wild animal welfare is distinctively intractable compared to global health or AI safety. Rather, the apparent difference most commonly stems from arbitrarily wide "spotlights" applied to [...] --- Outline: (00:31) Summary (02:15) Consequentialism + impartial altruism → hard to do good (03:43) The challenge: Deep uncertainty and backfire risk (04:41) Example: Bird-window collisions (05:22) We don't actually understand the welfare consequences of bird-window collisions on birds (06:08) We don't know how birds would die otherwise (07:06) The effects on other animals are even more uncertain (09:16) Four approaches to handling uncertainty (10:08) Spotlighting (15:31) Set aside that which you are clueless about (18:31) Assign precise probabilities (20:06) Seek ecologically inert interventions (22:04) Some objections & questions (22:17) The global health comparison: Spotlighting hasnt backfired (for humans) (23:22) Action-inaction distinctions (25:01) Why should justification standards be the same? (26:53) Conclusion --- First published: November 14th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2YjqfYktNGcx6YNRy/if-wild-animal-welfare-is-intractable-everything-is --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    29min
Ver tudo (250)

Sobre

Audio narrations from the Effective Altruism Forum, including curated posts, posts with 30 karma, and other great writing. If you'd like fewer episodes, subscribe to the "EA Forum (Curated & Popular)" podcast instead.

Informações

  • Criado por
    EA Forum Team
  • Anos de atividade
    2023 - 2025
  • Episódios
    250
  • Classificação
    Livre
  • Copyright
    © 2025 All rights reserved
  • Site do podcast
    EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

Você também pode gostar de