Macro Bytes abrdn

We frequently discuss globalisation, political volatility, geo-political competition, and technological change on this podcast. But how can investors play these trends? Paul Diggle talks to Blair Couper and Jamie Mills-O’Brien, equity fund managers at abrdn, about thematic investing.

The UK general election delivered a large Labour majority, while the French second round vote has resulted in a fragmented parliament and in the US, President Biden’s grip on the Democratic nomination may be slipping. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss what these political developments mean for investors, including whether Labour can boost UK growth, the structural challenges facing France, and what a Trump presidency might mean for markets.

France is heading to the polls in snap election, and markets are concerned about a potential large fiscal expansion. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about why Macron’s gamble doesn’t seem to be paying off, the chances that the next government enacts a large fiscal expansion, questions of France’s membership in the Eurozone, and whether comparisons with the UK’s “Liz Truss moment” are appropriate.

China has become a global EV superpower in very short order, with major macroeconomic repercussions. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith and Robert Gilhooly about how China overtook the US as the world’s pre-eminent manufacturer of electric vehicles, the ways in which this is changing the course of the Chinese economy, and why this is amplifying trade tensions with the US and Europe.

The snap UK general election on July 4th is very likely to result in a Labour government. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith about what this might mean for the economy – from fiscal policy and planning reform, to green industrial policy and the approach to the EU.

The US dollar is different to every other currency. The dollar is the global reserve asset, and its dominant status means dollar strength has important global spillovers. Paul and Luke discuss why the dollar has been appreciating recently, why this matters, how the dollar became so important, the benefits and drawbacks this brings to the US, and why a potential second Trump presidency could drop the US’s long standing commitment to a strong dollar.