109 episodes

Macro Bytes

Macro Bytes abrdn

    • Business

Macro Bytes

    America’s dollar, the world’s problem?

    America’s dollar, the world’s problem?

    The US dollar is different to every other currency. The dollar is the global reserve asset, and its dominant status means dollar strength has important global spillovers. Paul and Luke discuss why the dollar has been appreciating recently, why this matters, how the dollar became so important, the benefits and drawbacks this brings to the US, and why a potential second Trump presidency could drop the US’s long standing commitment to a strong dollar.

    • 24 min
    Is globalisation going into reverse, or just changing?

    Is globalisation going into reverse, or just changing?

    The traditional trade engine of globalisation has stalled or is even heading into reverse. But the globalisation of information, capital and people is still powering on. Nevertheless, even these aspects of globalisation are facing an increasingly hostile political and policy environment, including a potential Trump Presidency and ongoing US-China tensions. Paul Diggle speaks to James McCann about the nature of “globalisation 3.0”, and what it means for the economic outlook and financial marke...

    • 33 min
    How should investors navigate economic and political uncertainty?

    How should investors navigate economic and political uncertainty?

    The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss how scenario analysis can help investors to navigate uncertainty. They also consider the Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting process, which includes a recommendation to make greater use of scenarios.

    • 25 min
    Will the Bank of Japan hike interest rates again before the Federal Reserve cuts?

    Will the Bank of Japan hike interest rates again before the Federal Reserve cuts?

    The Bank of Japan has taken the historic step of ending negative interest rates and may hike further. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be approaching rate cuts, but an economic “no landing” could delay this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Sree Kochugovindan and James McCann about the outlook for monetary policy in Japan and the US.

    • 34 min
    Are we in a more volatile world for inflation?

    Are we in a more volatile world for inflation?

    The ‘great inflation’ saw not only price growth, but also inflation volatility, spike higher. And even as inflation itself has fallen back more recently, inflation volatility has remained elevated. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss why structural changes in the global economy, stalling globalisation, geopolitical fragmentation, and climate change may all mean that higher inflation volatility is here to stay – and why this would have significant implications for financial markets and po...

    • 24 min
    Will China hit its new growth target?

    Will China hit its new growth target?

    China has just announced a GDP target of “around 5%” for 2024. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging market economist at abrdn, about the challenges and opportunities facing the Chinese economy.

    • 27 min

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