Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Dave Keller, CMT
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On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

  1. 8H AGO

    Market Turbulence Decoded | A Technical Analyst's Perspective with Chris Vermeulen

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Chris Vermeulen, founder of The Technical Traders and author of Asset Revesting. Recorded 04/21/2026 Chris shares his purely technical approach to navigating the 2026 market, highlighting the recent euphoric run and subsequent correction in precious metals. We dig into his "Asset Revesting" philosophy of never holding an asset in a downtrend, why managing a portfolio is exactly like flying an airplane with a damaged wing, the importance of strict discipline over emotional reactions, and why a breakout in the US Dollar Index could trigger the next major market reset for both equities and metals. 📈 Topics Covered • Navigating early 2026 volatility and the controlled equity sell-off around the Strait of Hormuz • The euphoric blow-off top in gold and silver, and Chris's targets for a precious metals reset (down to $40 silver) before the next massive leg up • How piloting an airplane with a damaged wing mirrors disciplined trading, relying on checklists, and strict risk management • The core philosophy of "Asset Revesting": avoiding assets in downtrends and rotating seamlessly into cash, bonds, or currencies • Why following pure price action and trend momentum is superior to trading fundamental news or earnings • Monitoring the US Dollar Index (DXY) at the 100-101 level as a massive potential warning sign for both stocks and precious metals If you enjoyed this interview and are hungry for more, please check out Chris Vermeulen at: https://thetechnicaltraders.com/ And check out his book, "Asset Revesting: how to xclusively hold assets rising in value, profit during bear markets, and continue building wealth in retirement." 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    38 min

  2. 3D AGO

    Still Focused on Earnings Estimates? Think again | Q1 2026 Earnings Season with Nick Raich

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Nick Raich, founder and CEO of The Earnings Scout. Recorded 4/16/2026.  Nick shares what he’s learned from years of analyzing corporate earnings data and guiding institutional investors. We dig into the crucial difference between a bearish "Alligator Jaw" divergence and a bullish "Rocket Ship" setup, why the smart money focuses on the delta in earnings estimates rather than simple quarterly beats, how to separate consumer sentiment noise from actual spending data, and why robust earnings growth means the Federal Reserve doesn't need to cut interest rates anytime soon. 📈 Topics Covered • Defining the "Alligator Jaw" (a major warning sign) versus a bullish "Rocket Ship" market setup • Why the delta (rate of change) in forward earnings estimates matters far more than simple quarterly beats • How the recent spike in oil prices is—and isn't—impacting corporate earnings guidance • Reconciling weak consumer sentiment surveys with the reality of strong consumer spending • The current state of the AI trade: fears in the software space versus booming semiconductor estimates • How private equity and delayed IPOs have structurally changed the small-cap market • The debate over quarterly earnings reporting and the importance of management transparency • Why the Fed cutting interest rates in the face of above-trend growth would be a massive mistake • The power of combining fundamental earnings data with technical price momentum (1 + 1 = 3) And If you enjoyed our conversation today with Nick, be sure to dive deeper into his insights at: https://www.earningsscout.com/ 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    33 min

  3. APR 16

    Wait, Aren't Bonds a Safe Haven? And What About the new Fed Chair? feat. Thomas Urano

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Thomas Urano, Co-CIO of SAGE Advisory. Recorded 4/14/26. Thomas shares his fixed-income expertise to help us make sense of the bond market's wild ride in early 2026. We dig into how the conflict in the Middle East has shifted the driver of bond yields from macroeconomic data to oil and inflation, what a new Fed Chair means for the future of quantitative easing and rate cuts, and why the Core CPI is actually a better gauge for monetary policy than headline numbers. We also redefine the true role of bonds as a portfolio diversifier and explore where investors should look across the yield curve—from the 0-5 year maturity range to credit risk and mortgage securities—to find stability and yield today. 📈 Topics Covered • How the Middle East conflict shifted the bond market's focus strictly to oil and inflation • Why the market priced out 2026 rate cuts and how to think about the 3% neutral rate (R-star) • The critical difference between Headline and Core CPI, and why the Fed focuses on the latter • Why the unreliability of initial economic data prints requires a broader "mosaic" approach to analysis • The impact of incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and a potential shift toward a more traditionalist monetary policy • Redefining bonds as a diversifier: relying on low return volatility rather than strict negative correlation to equities • Where to allocate in fixed income right now: the 0-5 year maturity range, investment-grade credit risk, and mortgage bonds 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    34 min

  4. APR 3

    Don't Get Too Defensive Yet | 2026 Market Volatility with Ross Mayfield

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Ross Mayfield, an Investment Strategist for Baird Private Wealth Management. Recorded 3/31/26. Ross shares his macro perspective on navigating a highly volatile and shifting 2026 market. We dig into why corporate earnings are the ultimate line in the sand for maintaining the bull market, the shifting landscape of AI valuations, and why energy has become an essential geopolitical portfolio hedge. We also discuss the "meme-stock-ification" of silver, how to spot a market bottom using the discretionary-versus-staples ratio, and why the biggest risk to equities right now would be the Fed hiking rates into a commodity-driven energy shock. 📈 Topics Covered • Transitioning into a high-volatility, high-dispersion market regime • Why earnings stability and guidance dictate the difference between a correction and a bear market • Evaluating the AI sector: Attractive forward multiples versus broken technical charts • The self-correcting nature of crude oil demand and energy as a mandatory portfolio hedge • Gold's "sell the news" reaction and the sudden meme-stock-ification of silver • The necessity of evolving the traditional 60/40 portfolio with alternative assets • Using the equal-weight Discretionary vs. Staples ratio ("the best economist on Wall Street") to spot risk-on market bottoms • The danger of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates into an energy supply shock 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    31 min

  5. APR 2

    Market Breadth and Moving Averages: Navigating a Sideways Market feat. Stephen Suttmeier

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Stephen Suttmeier, founder of Suttmeier Technical Strategies. Recorded 3/18/26.  Steve shares what he’s learned from his extensive career on Wall Street, including his time working alongside legendary technicians like Bob Farrell and Mary Ann Bartels. We dig into his daily progression process for evaluating macro markets, the critical role of absolute versus relative price charts, and his strategic use of specific weekly moving averages. The conversation also explores current market breadth, the recent struggles of mega-cap growth stocks, his four-bucket framework for sector rotation, and how financial advisors can seamlessly translate complex technical analysis into actionable insights for their clients. 📈 Topics Covered • The legacy of technical analysis at Merrill Lynch and learning from industry legends • Defining secular and cyclical trends using 13, 26, 40, and 200-week moving averages • Analyzing market breadth via advance/decline lines and the new highs versus new lows spread • Evaluating the current market dynamic of equal-weight outperformance versus mega-cap weakness • The "four-bucket" methodology for categorizing absolute and relative stock performance to find leadership • Identifying sector rotations, including the recent strength in Technology versus Staples • Practical ways financial advisors can integrate technical nuggets and risk management into client communications 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    39 min

  6. MAR 26

    AI, Natural Gas, and the Middle East: Navigating Energy Supply Shocks feat. Rob Hummel

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Rob Thummel, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager at Tortoise Capital. Recorded 3/17/26. Rob shares what he’s learned from 30 years of investing in the energy sector, including his perspective on navigating unprecedented global supply shocks. We dig into the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, the critical differences between WTI and Brent crude, the mechanics of Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), how the AI boom is supercharging natural gas demand, and why high free cash flow and dividend yields matter so much in a tricky 2026 environment. 📈 Topics Covered • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its immediate impact on global oil supply • Key differences between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil benchmarks • The role of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during supply disruptions • How US energy independence and shale technology buffer against hyper-inflationary oil prices • The fundamental shift in energy sector balance sheets toward high free cash flow and dividend yields • Understanding Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and their unique structure • How the massive electricity demand required for AI data centers is driving the long-term bull case for natural gas 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    29 min

  7. MAR 19

    Price Follows Expectations: Navigating Earnings Gaps and Market Momentum feat. Alex Carteau

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Alex Carteau, president and co-founder of EPSMomentum. Recorded 3/12/26. Alex shares what he’s learned from years of analyzing stock performance, including his firsthand experience working with institutional investors and analysts during his time at Bloomberg. We dig into the true relationship between price and earnings, the critical difference between raw earnings and earnings acceleration, how to navigate the intense volatility of earnings gaps, and why understanding post-earnings drift and technical indicators like Average True Range matters so much in a tricky 2026 macro environment. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    38 min

  8. MAR 12

    CANSLIM in a Sideways Market: What Changes and What Doesn't feat. Justin Nielsen

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Justin Nielsen, Market Research Director at Investor’s Business Daily. Recorded 3/10/26. Justin shares what he’s learned from years of applying the William O’Neil methodology, including his firsthand experience working with Bill O’Neil himself. We dig into market awareness, idea generation, the challenge of sideways markets, how CANSMLinvestors think about market direction, and why flexibility, humility, and disciplined risk management matter so much in a tricky 2026 environment. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

    42 min
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Ratings & Reviews

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About

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

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