Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore
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  • استثمار
  • يتم التحديث أسبوعيًا

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

  1. قبل ساعتين

    Recession Indicators | Gold Oil Ratio | Fed Cut Probabilities Jump | Net Profit Margins By Decade

    Derek Moore and Shane Skinner talk about the rally in gold no one seems to care about and the gold oil ratio. Then, they go through the indicators used to determine recessions and note they don’t seem that bad, although nonfarm payrolls did disappoint. But private sector jobs are growing while the government jobs are falling, so are fed cuts greenlit? Later, looking at S&P 500 net income margin percentage average per decade. Yup, they’ve been rising each decade.  Finally, looking at forward PE ratios against forward EPS and how some stocks like Broadcom got cheaper after last earnings. All this and much more!   Next companies that are likely to join the S&P 500 Index Employment rate and non-farm payrolls Government vs Private Sector jobs Gold Oil ratio and what it means at these levels The rally in Gold over the past couple of years Central Banks buying gold AVGO Broadcom earnings and forward PE ratio and forward EPS estimates Recession indicators S&P 500 Index net profit margins by decade (they are rising) Why margins may not revert to the mean Fed rate cut probabilities jump after employment report       Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    ٥٨ من الدقائق

  2. ٣١ أغسطس

    Is Nvidia Getting Cheaper? | No Inflation | New Entrants to S&P 500 Index | Flows Into Ethereum ETFs

    Derek Moore and Michael Snyder touch on Nvidia post earnings to see whether the options market go the expected moves right or not. Then, they explore Interactive Brokers replacing Walgreens in the S&P 500 Index and how new entrants are often a big, overlooked aspect of S&P earnings growth. Then, they once again check in on the Fed and PCE Inflation which while not dropping isn’t rising either. Later they look at how the Atlanta GDP Now model shows increasing growth while personal income is rising as well, so what could go wrong?   Nvida post earnings options moves Why Nvidia long straddles before earnings didn’t’ work Personal Income is rising PCE Personal Consumption Index is flat Cumulative flows into Ethereum are driving price New entrants and drops from the S&P 500 Index Interactive Brokers replaces Walgreens in S&P 500 Index Vanguard VXF ETF Extended Markets Gives Potential S&P 500 Candidates The Fed and the interest rate probabilities for a cut through end of 2025 Atlanta Fed GDP Now Nvidia Forward PE Ratio vs Forward EPS Estimates vs Price   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    ٤٨ من الدقائق

  3. ٢٥ أغسطس

    Fed Gets Dovish? | Post Election Year Cycle | Option Vanna Rally? | In the End its Earnings

    Derek Moore and Shane Skinner geek out on the second derivative option Greek Vanna to understand how implied volatility changes cause buying or selling in markets. Plus, does Powell and the Fed not care about inflation anymore? Later, examine the post-election year seasonality to see if we are entering a historically weak period. All that plus what happens historically in markets when the fed has long period between rate cuts, interest rate probabilities, how to understand why stocks go up or down (return attribution).    What is Options Vanna? Why do implied volatility changes cause buying and selling in markets? How do option market makers hedge or offset option orders? Understanding how price to forward earnings (the multiple) and EPS estimates drive price What type of environment are we in currently? The Fed’s Jerome Powell Jackson Hole speech hints at dropping 2% inflation target Did the Federal Reserve just give the ‘all clear’ for a rate cut turning dovish? Why earnings estimates drive price in the S&P 500 index How implied volatility changes affect an option’s Delta How VIX Spikes and subsequent drop causes additional buyers to come in What historically happens August to October from a post-election seasonal standpoint? Data shows that when the Fed has time between interest rate cuts historically markets do well   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    ٥٣ من الدقائق

  4. ١٨ أغسطس

    MSTR vs Bitcoin (IBIT) | VIX Seasonality | No Tarif Inflation Yet | Stock Buyback Seasonality | Confusing PPI Report

    Derek Moore reviews the relative valuation between MSTR MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin ETF IBIT, plus deconstructing the recent PPI report which may not be the inflation problem many people initially thought. The VIX Index has seasonal patterns, and we are going into the season for increased historical VIX levels, but will history repeat itself?  What about corporate buybacks seasonality and what it means for the stock market over the next two months. Derek also reviews how railroad stocks were once a way bigger percentage of the US stock market than the top stocks in the index are today. It might surprise you just how much higher! Shipping container rates, mentions of stagflation, and some critiques of the Fed’s data dependence.    US Corporate Buybacks at Records Buyback seasonality Seasonality of VIX Index prices Mentions of Stagflation PPI vs CPI numbers Comparing CPI month over month (MoM%) when the Fed last cut vs now Tariffs are not showing up yet in the inflation data Import Prices down -0.2% month over month US Export prices 2.2% month over month Spot shipping container rates WCI Shanghai to Los Angeles Container Freight Benchmark Index     Mentioned in this Episode   Trade PPI explanation from Richmond Fed https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2023/mm_09_05_23   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    ٣٤ من الدقائق

  5. ١٠ أغسطس

    Comparing Bull Markets | Employment Revisions | Nvidia Options Implied Moves | Wall Street Targets Get Bullish

    Derek Moore and Mike Snyder compare the 2009 bull market to today plus Wall Street year end estimates get bullish again. Plus, What Nvidia’s options market is forecasting for implied moves around earnings. Later, explaining (or trying to) the revisions to the employment data, historical perspective, and the low response rates. All that and more as markets try to make another all-time high.    2009 Bull Market vs 2022 Non-Farm Payroll Downward Revisions Average Differential Between Final Estimate and Initial Estimates 30 Consecutive Downward Revisions Market Cycles and Market Breadth Wall Street Forecasts Revert to Pre Tariff Turmoil Levels CPI Rent New Tenants collapses so what does it mean? Nvidia (NVDA) option implied volatility implied move through earning    Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    ٥٩ من الدقائق

  6. ٤ أغسطس

    Can You Really Retire on High Dividend Paying ETFs? |What Investors Get Wrong on Premium Selling High Dividend ETFs and Income | Are Assets More Correlated Today? | Index Weighting Concentration Over the Years

    Derek Moore and Shane Skinner get into how investors are looking at high dividend ETFs the wrong way as total return vs distribution yield is what matters. Plus, how to think about how much in dividends you can take out knowing its total return that drives the probability of assets lasting during distribution phase. Later, they look at correlations between different asset classes over the years and ask whether today they are way more positively correlated. They then delve into concentration today in stock indexes vs prior periods. You might be surprised by who were the highest waited stocks throughout the years.    Dividend Yield vs Total Return Implied volatility in the options for Opendoor Sequence of return risks during withdrawals Tradeoff between premium selling and upside capture Ordinary income vs capital gains and losses Can investors really live off dividends? Understanding the risks of concentration in asset deployment Cross asset correlation Comparing correlations over different periods in history Have stocks and bonds become more correlated? Nvidia and Microsoft are the highest 2 stock concentration in the Dow Jones Index? Surprising companies that have been the highest weighted in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Indexes   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    ١ س ٣ د

  7. ٢٧ يوليو

    Opendoor Meme Stock Mania Gamma Squeeze? | Bull Market Has Legs? | FOMC Fed Dissents Coming? | Options and Mag 7 Earnings

    Derek Moore and Mike Snyder get into why anyone was short Opendoor and how the options market is flashing crazy implied volatility. Plus, how volatility and price movement may cause market makers to buy shares known as a “Gamma Squeeze”. Later, they get into how the signs are there that this bull market might have more to run (or not). Oh, and let’s not forget to look at what the options market is forecasting for expected moves on Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple earnings next week. All this plus some recommendations this week.    Short Interest on Opendoor Implied volatility in the options for Opendoor What is a gamma squeeze? Why market makers might be forced to buy more shares to hedge when people buy calls How implied volatility, price, and time impact how many shares market makers buy Looking at a monthly breakdown of when all-time highs are reached by month Analysts are forecasting the most dissents by FOMC members at a meeting in 30 years Looking at market breadth widening Comparing the RSP equal weight ETF vs the SPY ETF performance lately Median single family home prices are holding up Why Are Stocks Up? Nobody Knows WSJ article Median S&P 500 Index Performance after 60 days above the 20-day moving average   Mentioned in this Episode   WSJ Article Why are Stocks Up? Nobody Knows https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-are-stocks-up-nobody-knows-e40e5f42?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgNaz0DDWFH6gDHn6aERrjSRwPmYAW_gghkSG_vodoYjhptA0P1MDkxjbWf_I8%3D&gaa_ts=6884571e&gaa_sig=yozSyPX1hqhHz6UAZ2l-hgP3YdDvVJAHPTMiUXl-RbQszZ0B_F6nf5MoO9DjUl2uwotmVVavxIG3wmp2BPUwOg%3D%3D   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

    ٥٩ من الدقائق

  8. ٢١ يوليو

    Powell vs. Trump | Crazy Inflation Survey Expectations | US Stocks Overseas Revenue | Options and Tesla Earnings

    Derek Moore and Shane Skinner give their thoughts on the Fed, interest rates, and the Trump vs. Powell situation. Plus, looking at new data on how much revenue US companies derive from overseas markets. Later the talk about what many get wrong about where their stock market returns come from year over year plus those crazy surveys and inflation expectations. Finally, they talk about what the option market is expecting around TSLA earnings   How long are Fed Governor terms? How long is the term of the Federal Reserve Chair? Where returns come from changes in revenues, margins, EPS, buybacks, and dividends Q2 Earnings Season kicks off  Will earnings beat by more than people expect? What percentage do S&P 500 Index companies revenues come from overseas? What about the Mag 7 percentage of foreign earnings? U of Michigan inflation survey still shows crazy disparity between democrats and republicans Trump vs Powell debate Fed interest rate probabilities Will the Fed lower interest rates in July? What the options market says about the TSLA earnings move this week TSLA implied volatility   Mentioned in this Episode   Semper Augustus 2021 letter talking about where returns come from over longer periods https://static.fmgsuite.com/media/documents/db64b928-53d6-43a9-a4d0-a9d2f69f76ba.pdf   Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

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The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

المعلومات

  • صناع العمل
    Derek Moore
  • سنوات النشاط
    ٢٠١٨ - ٢٠٢٥
  • الحلقات
    ٣٤١
  • التقييم
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  • موقع البرنامج على الويب
    Broken Pie Chart

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