Markets Unscripted

Markets Unscripted

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2 Traders, 1 Goal - Honest Conversations Markets Unscripted brings together two traders who approach the same world from opposite sides — and still end up finding truth in the same place. Each episode cuts through noise, narrative, and prediction to uncover what’s actually moving markets — the behaviour, psychology, and structure underneath price.

hace 1 día

The Bears Have A Great Story. The Bulls Have The Trend.

Everyone wants to call the AI trade over.But what if this is not the end of the move — just the rotation before the next leg higher?In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the market may be shifting beneath the surface, how small caps, banks, healthcare, housing, and AI leaders are rotating, and why the biggest mistake traders make is letting scary narratives override process.Matt also compares today’s AI buildout to the railroad boom of the 1800s — a massive infrastructure cycle that almost nobody believed in at the time — while Jason lays out the real risk: not that AI disappears, but that leverage, hubris, or credit stress eventually breaks something.They also discuss why bearish arguments always sound smarter, why bull markets are harder to sit through than people think, and how to use market signals instead of social media panic to guide decisions.

54 min
22 jun

This Is the Most Hated Bull Market Ever

Everyone keeps trying to call the top… but the market keeps refusing to agree.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may be one of the most hated bull markets they’ve ever seen — with AI, semiconductors, small caps, and new 52-week highs continuing to push higher while investors stay trapped in bearish narratives.They discuss why fighting the tape can be deadly for traders, how AI could be reshaping entire industries, why relative strength still matters more than opinions, and what signs Jason would actually need to see before calling a real market top.From Micron, NVIDIA, ARM, Intel, Caterpillar, small caps, Fed reactions, positioning data, and the psychology of investors waiting for the “perfect pullback,” this episode digs into the market’s biggest question:Is this a bubble… or are most people still underestimating the AI boom?

56 min
15 jun

BELIEVE IT OR NOT… THE MARKET IS STRENGTHENING

Markets are rallying hard again — and despite the constant bearish arguments, the tape keeps telling a very different story.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the market appears to be broadening beyond the AI trade, with strength showing up in small caps, regional banks, healthcare, industrials, and other areas that many investors are still ignoring.They also dig into the psychology of traders who stay bearish no matter what the data says, why relative strength matters more than opinions, and how the market often reveals the truth long before the explanation becomes obvious.Matt also revisits the 2000 IPO comparison, including how lockup expirations actually played out during the dot-com peak — and why the timing of today’s IPO concerns may be very different from what the bears are arguing.Plus, Jason shares why AI may be a much bigger productivity shift than many people realize, and why the winners and losers from this new era could be massive.Topics covered:Why the bull market may be getting stronger under the surfaceSmall caps and regional banks showing surprising leadershipWhy bearish arguments keep shiftingThe danger of fighting the tapeAI as a productivity superpowerThe 2000 IPO parallel and what people may be missingHow Matt uses a “FOMO indicator” to manage short-term riskWhy relative strength keeps pointing to opportunityThis is not a market to sleep on.

53 min
8 jun

Is Liquidity the Real Risk to the AI Bull Market?

Last Friday, the AI trade finally hit a wall.After months of relentless strength, several high-flying AI-related stocks were hit hard, while a popular 3X South Korea ETF tied to the memory and storage trade collapsed more than 40%. Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may not be “the top,” but could be an important warning sign about leverage, liquidity, and crowded positioning.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt and Jason revisit Jesse Livermore’s famous 1906 liquidity warning, when competing capital raises in the railroad sector helped signal trouble before a major market decline. Today, the question is whether massive funding needs from AI infrastructure, Google, Meta, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could eventually strain market liquidity.They also discuss why bull markets usually do not end in one day, how deleveraging events can reveal the next leadership group, and why traders should be watching which stocks hold up best during market weakness.The conversation also covers possible next-stage AI beneficiaries beyond chips, including healthcare, software, data infrastructure, and select names showing relative strength.Topics covered:The AI trade’s sharp selloffLiquidity risk vs. valuation riskGoogle and Meta’s massive capital raisesSpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPO concernsJesse Livermore’s 1906 warning signalWhy leverage can destroy traders fastHow to spot real leadership during market pullbacksEli Lilly, Snowflake, Twilio, Veeco, and other AI-adjacent setupsBitcoin’s relative weaknessWhy position sizing matters more than most traders thinkThis episode is not about calling a bear market. It is about identifying the warning signs that could matter if liquidity starts to dry up.

48 min
1 jun

SpaceX IPO: Former NASA Chief Engineer on Elon’s Launch Dominance

SpaceX could be heading toward one of the biggest IPOs in market history — but is it a bubble, a breakthrough, or something even bigger?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro sit down with Greg Frady, former NASA Chief Engineer for early commercial crew, commercial payloads, and the commercial lunar lander program. With 38 years of experience across major space programs, Greg breaks down what investors need to understand about SpaceX, Starlink, reusable rockets, Blue Origin, space-based data centers, satellite networks, and the commercialization of space.The conversation goes far beyond valuation. They discuss how Elon Musk changed the economics of launch, why Falcon 9 was such a major unlock, whether space data centers are actually possible, how Starlink could reshape global communications, and why companies like Planet Labs and AST SpaceMobile may represent the next wave of space-driven opportunities.They also cover the biggest risks investors may be underestimating — including launch failures, supply chain dependencies, government contracts, regulation, and why space stocks can move violently when things go wrong.Is the SpaceX IPO the top of the market… or the start of something much bigger?Key Timestamps00:00 — SpaceX IPO could be one of the biggest ever01:46 — How commercialization changed the space industry03:57 — Why Falcon 9 and reusable rockets changed the economics06:30 — Starlink, vertical integration, and SpaceX’s satellite advantage09:27 — How much SpaceX reduced launch costs15:45 — Why space is still hard despite SpaceX making it look easy19:28 — Did Blue Origin’s failure make SpaceX even more valuable?23:08 — What investors may be missing in the SpaceX valuation26:37 — Are space-based AI data centers actually possible?51:23 — Planet Labs, agriculture, and real-world space use cases

1 h 20 min
26 may

Is The AI Pullback Just Starting? | Real Simple Ariel Joins

Markets are finally showing selling pressure — and this time, the biggest AI leaders are taking the hit.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro are joined by Ariel Hernandez, known on X as Real Simple Ariel, for a deep discussion on AI stocks, momentum trading, market rotation, short setups, overextended leaders, and why traders need to know where they are wrong before entering a position.The group breaks down whether the AI trade is simply pulling back… or whether this is the first real warning sign that the hottest part of the market is getting crowded.They also discuss NBIS, Micron, ARM, SanDisk, Rocket Lab, software rotation, energy breakouts, IPO froth, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and why the market may be entering a much more fragile phase.Key themes covered:AI stock pullbackMomentum leaders getting extendedWhy trimming into strength mattersHow traders know when to slow downThe danger of buying every dipShorting weak stocks in a strong marketWhether AI is still early — or already priced inThe coming mega IPO waveWhy price action matters more than opinionsKey Timestamps00:00 — AI stocks finally face selling pressure01:26 — Ariel breaks down the historic semiconductor run03:10 — Why strong leaders still need consolidation04:24 — Energy stocks break out while tech pulls back05:18 — The danger of buying every AI dip06:04 — Ariel’s “moving train” trading analogy07:35 — Jason questions where the uptrend breaks09:00 — Why new highs before the market matter10:43 — Jason: momentum works… until the bull market ends12:24 — Ariel explains when his own trades tell him to slow down13:57 — Jason praises listening to the market, not opinions16:19 — Ariel’s two favorite short-selling setups18:48 — Why short trades are usually quick tactical moves21:02 — Cybersecurity finally starts catching a bid22:47 — Bitcoin bros, positioning, and crowd psychology25:48 — “Do you want to be right or make money?”30:56 — Why every trade needs an exit before entry38:14 — How Ariel trims overextended leaders53:17 — Is AI still early, or already priced in?1:22:11 — The mega IPO warning: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic

1 h 25 min
11 may

Don’t Miss the Monster Stock Moves

Saturday May 16th Workshop Register Here: www.marketsunscripted.comEveryone is screaming “AI bubble”… but what if they are looking at the wrong thing?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the red-hot AI rally, why Corning’s move may be more than just hype, and why the comparison to 1999 may be dangerously misleading.Matt walks through why some stocks can actually become more attractive as they rise, while Jason explains why his contrarian process is not flashing the usual warning signs yet. They also discuss positioning, sentiment, passive investing, the next layer of AI infrastructure, and how traders should recover if they missed the move.Plus, Matt and Jason talk about the upcoming Markets Unscripted live workshop and the mindset needed to survive one of the fastest markets we have seen in years.Key Timestamps:00:00 — Is this an AI bubble… or just getting started?00:52 — Corning explodes higher on Nvidia news04:58 — Jason explains why he is taking the AI bull case seriously09:13 — Are AI valuations actually crazy?13:52 — Matt explains how to recognize a rare market environment16:12 — Jason says the dangerous words: “It’s different this time”20:20 — Why being underexposed to AI may feel like being short25:36 — Matt compares today’s rally to the dot-com era30:57 — Jason’s warning from surviving the 1999 bubble49:08 — What to do if you missed the AI move

1 h 5 min
4 may

Google Put AI Bears on Notice — This Isn’t a Bubble

Register for the upcoming workshop on May 16, 2026: www.marketsunscripted.comIs AI really in a bubble — or are traders making the same mistake they’ve made in every major bull market?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the latest Google earnings report may be a major turning point for the AI trade. Matt explains why improving AI monetization, accelerating usage, stronger cloud demand, and better unit economics could crush one of the biggest bearish arguments against AI.Jason pushes back on the bubble narrative and explains why so many traders calling this a “bubble” may actually be a sign the move is not as crowded as people think. The discussion also covers why shorting strength can be so dangerous, what traders can learn from the Big Short, the dot-com bubble, Apple, Nvidia, semiconductors, software, and why the best opportunities often look scary before they become obvious.Plus, Matt and Jason discuss the upcoming Markets Unscripted Live Workshop with live Q&A, where they’ll go deeper into the process, tools, and frameworks behind how they analyze markets in real time.TIMESTAMPS00:00 — Market races higher despite oil and Middle East tensions01:20 — Why Google earnings may be a game changer for AI02:30 — Google’s AI monetization, Gemini growth, and cloud demand05:00 — Matt: the AI bubble argument may be falling apart06:12 — Jason: “A bubble is a bull market I’m not long”09:20 — Why the tape keeps rejecting bad news10:37 — The danger of trying to catch the next “Big Short”16:25 — What positioning data says about Nasdaq traders19:30 — The AI bear case is shifting25:30 — Why underweight managers may be “short by performance”28:58 — Jason: fading price is one of the biggest mistakes traders make32:31 — Matt on why true market leaders take time to play out37:03 — Ride winners, cut losers50:30 — Semiconductors, software, and the AI rotation trade51:45 — How to track semis vs. software with SMH/IGV55:24 — Nvidia, competition, and the next layer of AI winners57:30 — Markets Unscripted live workshop announcement

58 min

2 Traders, 1 Goal - Honest Conversations Markets Unscripted brings together two traders who approach the same world from opposite sides — and still end up finding truth in the same place. Each episode cuts through noise, narrative, and prediction to uncover what’s actually moving markets — the behaviour, psychology, and structure underneath price.

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Markets Unscripted
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30
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