Monetary Blog | FOMC Insight Engine

Konstantin Milevskiy
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Investigations into Federal Reserve policy, tested against 90 years of archival documents.

Episodes

  1. 4D AGO

    The Compound: What the Fed already knew about the remedies its most celebrated investor prescribes

    Buffett names Powell and Volcker as his two Fed heroes and proposes two remedies — zero inflation, stability paramount — that the archive shows are mutually incompatible with the heroes'...

  2. 4D AGO

    The Privilege: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the risks Warren Buffett identifies — and the cure he prescribes

    Buffett identifies four features of the monetary landscape — reserve currency vulnerability, banking fragility, contagion speed, and crisis response adequacy — and the archive validates his...

  3. APR 1

    The Precedent: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the history a dissenting governor invokes

    Miran constructs his dissent from five historical precedents: the Greenspan productivity bet, the 'classic reasoning' of looking through supply shocks, the disinflationary power of deregulation,...

  4. MAR 26

    The Guide: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the balance sheet reduction its Governor proposes

    Miran proposes shrinking the Fed's balance sheet by $1–2 trillion through destigmatizing the discount window, easing LCR requirements, and normalizing MBS holdings — a comprehensive reform...

  5. MAR 25

    The Unanimity: Five decades of unanimous votes. Five mechanisms of collective failure. The architecture of agreement at the Federal Reserve.

    The FOMC's most consequential failures share a common architecture: unanimous votes masking unresolved analytical disagreement. The transcripts reveal what the votes concealed.

  6. MAR 18

    The Retreat: The March 2026 FOMC statement made four changes from January. Markets barely noticed. We decoded each change against 90 years of documents.

    Four changes across 240 words. Every one performs a function the statement cannot name. The Fed is narrowing what it claims to know — while preserving every element of the architecture that will authorize the next cut.

  7. MAR 14

    The Insulation: What seven decades of closed-door deliberations reveal about Federal Reserve independence

    The public narrative of Federal Reserve independence rests on institutional architecture — the 1951 Accord, fourteen-year terms, transparency norms, explicit inflation targets — presented as...

  8. MAR 7

    The Circuit: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the path from energy shock to bond market

    An analyst submits a five-link causal hypothesis tracing transmission from a Qatar LNG disruption through Japan's balance-of-payments stress into US Treasury markets and financial conditions.

  9. MAR 5

    The Reserve: What the Fed's own archive reveals about the framework the Treasury Secretary calls a mistake

    Bessent proposes dismantling the post-crisis liquidity framework, calling the self-insurance mandate a fundamental mistake born of crisis trauma, blaming the LCR for entrenching discount window...

  10. FEB 22

    The Aggregate: Twenty Percent of the Economy Drives One Hundred Percent of Recessions. The Federal Reserve Tracks Those Sectors — and the Credit Conditions That Drive Them.

    Business-cycle research holds that recessions originate in a small number of interest-rate-sensitive sectors. The FOMC Insight Engine tests whether the Fed tracks them — and what happens to two layers of warning inside the committee's consensus process.

  11. JAN 14

    The Confession: When a Fed Governor Said the Quiet Part Out Loud

    On January 14, 2026, a Federal Reserve Governor said publicly what the institution had hidden for forty years. We have the documents to prove it.

  • 11 Episodes

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Investigations into Federal Reserve policy, tested against 90 years of archival documents.

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