NGMI

Tom Mitchelhill
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terminally online money podcast

  1. Aug 26

    The End of The House: Former Quant Trader's Plan to Fix Gambling Forever - Finn Hulse - #55

    Ex-Quant Trader Finn Hulse introduces Gambling 2.0: next-generation casino infrastructure that wins when its players do.In this episode, Finn introduces the Gambling 2.0 Initiative and breaks down how replacing the house’s bankroll with a huge player pool inverts predatory incentives and democratizes positive EV in exchange for variance. Gambling 2.0 refers broadly to a self-custodial, permissionless, and unfuckwithable system for provably fair gambling where the “house” always wants its players to win. Finn explains how he has created a permissionless, fair gambling system that doesn’t exploit its own users and breaks down the predatory incentives, practices, and misalignment at the core of “Gambling 1.0” as it exists today.Additionally, Finn explains how gambling can be understood as a “good” thing at a social level, and the problems that come from the rapid increase in chronic youth gambling, much of which is driven by a fear of escaping the "permanent underclass."Finn shows how Gambling 2.0 removes the house and re-aligns incentives in favor of users, how Variance Vault acts as a HIP-3/Shopify layer for building fair gambling at scale, and details the mechanics of limiting user downside while maintaining high variance upside.He shares why he thinks it's a good idea to pitch Gambling 2.0 to governments first and shares exactly what it would look like to build and deploy Gambling 2.0 at scale.Timestamps0:00 Freeroll & Gambling 2.004:30 Predatory gambling mechanics 09:00 Gambling: declining with boomers, increasing with youth11:30 Labor and capital12:50 Clavicular, influencers & deceptive (probably illegal) advertising13:46 The 3 Tenets of Gambling 2.019:41 Variance Vault: democratizing upside 23:07 Provably fair house mechanics 27:40 Randomness & decentralization 29:17 The HIP-3/Shopify of gambling 36:52 GTM strategy for Freeroll40:20 Pitching Freeroll to governments42:17 Shutdown Las Vegas, rewire into Gambling 2.046:00 How to create a fair high variance reward system51:30 A permissionless gambling layer53:50 Removing predatory inefficiency from markets58:10 Self-funding variance1:02:05 Build a game on Freeroll

  2. Aug 22

    Quant Trader Says The Crypto Bull Market Just Started - Scott Phillips - #54

    Quantitative Trader Scott Phillips explains why Aug. 19 is almost certainly the first day of the next bull market for crypto. In this episode, Scott breaks down the mechanical difference in the crypto markets' most recent move & explains how this market-wide upswing is a reliable signal for continued outperformance Scott also explains why Bitcoin's (BTC) most recent move is almost certainly the beginning of the bull market, how to trade effectively in 'the trenches' and the systemic differences between shitcoining and quant analysis, how you can maintain a constant Sharpe 2.5+ system in crypto even when the edge is well-known, simple heuristics for identifying outlier (good) teams in crypto and betting heavily on them, how to build a list of predictably terrible projects and short them in perpetuity, a brief history of financial derivatives and some fundamentals to go with them, the curse of coming into a large sum of unearned capital you are ill-equipped to manage and why Ethereum (ETH) remains the most cursed major asset in crypto Timestamps: 0:00 Obligatory BJJ intro 4:30 Trump, Hype & constructive PA 7:30 Mapping sentiment on tops and bottoms 9:00 Persistent edges in crypto 11:20 Farming copytraders 13:10 Trenching vs trading 15:00 The danger of unearned gains 17:00 August 20: the first day of the bull market 21:00 Shorting dogshit: indicators for bad projects 27:30 Crypto vs equities: finding edge on predictors 33:10 The 2 types of edge in crypto 36:00 Why known edge persists 44:00 The unfortunate “crypto” risk premia 48:00 Cursed Ethereum performance 51:30 Teams that look like hyperliquid 55:00 Why hyperliquid 57:45 Binance 1:00:00 Perp dex euthanasia rollercoaster 1:03:00 Small traders should trench on Robinhood 1:05:19 Check out Hypertrend

  3. Jul 2

    Cap's DeFi Stablecoin Strategy Is Ushering in a New Era of Crypto - DeFi Dave #53

    DeFi Dave is the Head of Growth at Cap, a decentralized financial (DeFi) credit protocol. As the name suggests, Dave is a seasoned DeFi expert, dedicating most of his daily life to projects in the industry since 2017. In this episode, Dave and I got stuck into the function of credit in the broader economy, what the word 'credit' actually means, the philosophical underpinnings of Cap, and how the protocol adds value and introduces a novel mechanism for the creation of credit in both digital and traditional finance. We also went into great detail on the how and why of stablecoins, what they actually are as an asset, and the function they serve in the global economy. We did a little defending of central banks and discussed the importance of the US Dollar in the global market and why it's unlikely that US Dollar dominance will be shrinking anytime soon. I also asked Dave for the genesis story of how he first discovered crypto and why he decided to stick around, especially with him running meta-ironic events like Cigs Inside and ETH Bushwick, which started out as jokes on the internet but eventually became legitimate events in the real world.

  4. Jun 24

    #52 - Prediction Markets Are a New Asset Class - Lauris

    Lauris is a financial economist, forward deployed philospher, a top graduate of the London School of Economics and a serial founder in the world of open-source finance. In this episode, Lauris and I discussed market and financial economics, specifically focused on his previous academic research on Arrow-Debreu securities, swaps, and event contracts outcomes, including the use of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to create fast-feedback, information-dense "perfect" markets. We went into extensive detail on both the theory and praxis of these frameworks in the crypto industry today, focusing largely on the toxic effect of memecoins on the retail market in cryptocurrency, the case for prediction markets as a new asset class (not just sportsbook gambling), why blockchain-based perpetual futures venues like Hyperliquid and Tradexyz transcend the realm of pure crypto, why "web3" was always doomed to fail, Lucretius and evolutionary theoretical frameworks for financial and social applications, his new project 'Hedgebook', modern dating dynamics, media ecology, christianity , hypergamy, RWA's and the re-industrialization of the United States with artificial intelligence.

  5. Jun 14

    #51 - 15 Critical Lessons For Trading Crypto & AI - Big Trout

    Big Trout is one of the sharpest small follower count traders to appear on X (formerly known as Twitter) in the last few 12 months. He has an incredibly in-depth technical and macro knowledge of markets that he turns into actionable trades, funny tweets, and incredible trading content here on YouTube. In this episode, Trout and I conduct an in-depth technical overview of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Hyperliquid (HYPE) in terms of short-term price action and longer-term macro outlook for each asset.Trout and I also discuss what really happened on October 10, the damage that Donald Trump has caused crypto as an industry, the looming legal and technical threats to Solana, why Ethereum actually looks better than ever as a long-term investment, how he interprets at the AI boom in equities, the SpaceX IPO & why the four-year cycle still holds, and much, much more.

  6. Jun 5

    #50 - The Bull Case for Ethereum in 2026 - Clouted

    Clouted is the founder of ETH Strategy, an onchain digital asset treasury for Ethereum (ETH). It is a protocol for "generational unliquidatable giga long ETH exposure" and currently holds $21 million in ETH in it's treasury. In this episode, Clouted and I discuss the failings of Ethereum to successfully capture value and reward the developers on its network with price appreciation to the native ETH token. Additionally, we go into depth on why Hyperliquid has been so successful in solving specialized financial problems where Ethereum could not, why Ethereum is fundamentally about sovereignty, security, and programability and why those features make it inherently valuable on a long-term time horizon. Clouted is one of the original visionaries who believes in the cypherpunk roots of cryptography, cryptocurrency, and permissionless digital assets. In a world of ever-increasing surveillance, control, and censorship, Clouted believes that Ethereum is one of the best technologies for safeguarding one's personal, financial & economic freedom.

  7. May 26

    #49 - AI Is a Bubble but It’s Bullish for Bitcoin - Adrian Morris

    Adrian Morris is a founding partner of Bitcoin investment group True North and one of the foremost experts on Bitcoin & Strategy (formerly Microstrategy). It was a pleasure to welcome Adrian back to the show to break down the Strategy ecosystem as it stands today, including an in-depth explanation of STRC (Stretch) and how Strategy's financial product offerings function within the broader ecosystem.Adrian explains why Saylor recently sharing that he would sell Bitcoin should not come as groundbreaking news, and details how & why Saylor has sold Bitcoin in the past in order to service Strategy debt in 2022. Adrian and I also discussed the Cambrian explosion of AI, why AI is in a "bubble-like" state, the future of labour in an increasingly AI-integrated economy, why many of these effects feed positively into a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, and much more.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------SOCIALSAdrian Morris: https://x.com/_AdrianTrue North: https://x.com/TNorthTom Mitchelhill - https://x.com/ideacasinoNGMI: https://x.com/ngmi_xyz------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------TIMESTAMPS00:00 - October 10th10:45 - Strategy Ecosystem Update15:30 - STRC Explained + Critiques19:25 - Risk: Strategy Owns 4% of Bitcoin 22:55 Saylor: “Never Sell BTC” - Then Sells BTC 27:05 - Adrian’s Mid-Term $BTC Thesis30:00 - The Bull Scenario: BTC to $250k33:10 - Bitcoin’s Function as an Asset 39:52 - AI Bubble & Dispersion of Capital Back To Bitcoin45:00 - Agentic Use of Crypto: Bearish Alts 47:45 - Tokengooning 52:00 - K-Shaped Labour Scaling Economics1:00:00 - Learn To Code 2.01:05:00 - Behavior Bottlenecks

  8. 12/10/2025

    #48 - DoubleZero: The New Internet Layer For Crypto - Austin Federa

    Austin Federa is the co-founder of Double Zero, a new infrastructure project that’s creating a new, high-speed layer of the internet for crypto. Previously, Austin served as the Head of Strategy at the Solana Foundation for 3 years.In this episode of The NGMI Podcast, Austin breaks down what DoubleZero is, how it all works, why he left the Solana Foundation to pursue a new project, why crypto needs a new infra layer for speed and throughput, and much more.Additionally, Austin explains the thinking and decisions that went into the 2Z token’s launch, he discusses its price action following launch, and describes the specific tokenomics and infrastructure elements of the project in great detail.

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About

terminally online money podcast

Information

  • Creator
    Tom Mitchelhill
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    54
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Tom Mitchelhill
  • Show Website
    NGMI

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