On My Mind: LNG and Gas Industry Musings by Vivek Chandra

Vivek Chandra
  • 0.0 (0)
  • NEWS COMMENTARY
  • UPDATED BIWEEKLY

Listen to LNG industry expert and entrepreneur Vivek Chandra discuss developments and trends in the international gas industry. Expect unfiltered, unrehearsed, and opinionated straight talk that is not afraid to say whatever is on his mind!

Episodes

  1. 3D AGO

    On My Mind: Episode 46: October 13 2025

    In this episode, I pick up on last month’s conversationabout irrational optimism around LNG projects reaching FID.  I focus first on the US, which has seen five FIDs so farthis year —and another five could follow soon. Big projects are also being announced in Argentina, Canada, and possibly Mozambique, among other places. I'm sceptical that the market can easily absorb such large volumes of new LNG; we’re already witnessing softer prices in major markets, partly because low oil prices are weakening LNG prices further. China, once viewed as a limitless source of LNG demand, hasslowed its demand growth by boosting domestic gas production, expanding renewables, and increasing pipeline imports. Now, China mostly buys Russian LNGdirectly. A major concern is that 90% of the new US LNG salescontracts go to portfolio players and traders—the so-called 'middlemen'—who have no intention to consume the LNG themselves. For example, Sempra’s Port Arthur Phase 2 is selling just 1.5 MTPA out of 13 MTPA to an actual end-user(JERA); the rest is contracted to parties who must resell it for more than they paid. Notably, 5 MTPA is sold back to Sempra, meaning 40% of the facility's output is bought by its own subsidiary. If the price gap between US LNG and global markets narrows, this setup could spell trouble.  As I said in the last episode, this is a good time to be inthe permitting process in the US and elsewhere (such as Canada)… but may not be a good time to be committing to add yet more volumes into a saturated market.  Gulfstream LNG is taking this prudent approach. To wrap up, I comment briefly on the recent Venture Global vBP arbitration settlement, and compare it to the Venture Global v Shell case from a few months back.    Comments always welcome!   @onmymind @vivekchandra @gulfstreamlng

    18 min

  2. SEP 15

    On My Mind : September 15 2025

    On My Mind: Episode 45: September 15 2025 In this episode, I take a more somber view of the industry than my normal optimistic view. I have recently returned from Gastech, the giant industry gathering that was held in Milan, Italy last week. Instead of positive thoughts, I left with a feeling of concern which can be summed up as 'Irrational Exuberance.' Much like the crazy dotcom era twenty years ago when this term was first used, we are in danger of losing the plot. The gas /LNG industry needs incremental growth to meet incremental energy demand. As I have argued in past episodes, we live in a world of Energy Addition, not Energy Transition. If we grow too fast, and bring too much supply to the market too quickly, we are in danger of upsetting the delicate balance of supply vs demand. At Gastech, there were countless projects and expansion projects tripping over themselves try to get to Final Investment Decision…many of them on the back of offtake agreements with traders and aggregators – not end users. All of this in an environment of low LNG prices which are likely to persist in the near term. And, on the other side of the ledger, we have high capex, high steel prices, high interest rates and high uncertainty of tariffs and other trade barriers. This could get ugly before it gets better. The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) that is driving projects all over the world to FID may not match the steady incremental demand growth expected. A lot of project developers and equity investors could be impacted if project economics don't live up to optimistic forecasts. This is a good time to be in the permitting process in the US and elsewhere (such as Canada)… but may not be a good time to be committing to add yet more volumes into a saturated market. Gulfstream LNG is taking this prudent approach. For others, I suggest slowing down the mad rush to FID!

    13 min
  • 2 Episodes

About

Listen to LNG industry expert and entrepreneur Vivek Chandra discuss developments and trends in the international gas industry. Expect unfiltered, unrehearsed, and opinionated straight talk that is not afraid to say whatever is on his mind!

Information