Oscars Outsider

Oscars Outsider

Oscars Outsider is a podcast where Craig Midwinter and Dylan Ferguson break down the Oscars the way most people break down sports. We follow the awards race week by week — the narratives, the precursors, the surprises, the discourse, and the strategy behind every contender’s campaign. We treat awards season like a competitive ecosystem, tracking momentum, analyzing the politics of voting bodies, and running our own Oscars Fantasy Draft to score nominations, wins, snubs, and everything in between. If you care about movies and the game behind the movies, you’re in the right place.

  1. 1일 전

    These Venice Films Could Take Over the 2027 Oscars? Venice Film Festival Preview!

    Venice 2025 is days away — and awards season is officially on. Dylan and Craig break down the full in-competition lineup, make their Golden Lion predictions, and identify the Oscar sleepers you need to know before the first screenings drop. On the table: Is Wild Horse Nine the safest Golden Lion bet, or can Lee Chang-dong's long-awaited Possible Love pull off a surprise? Why Florian Zeller's Bunker (Penélope Cruz, Paul Dano, Stephen Graham) could be the dark horse Oscar launch of the festival. The shocking stat about South Korean cinema at the Oscars — only ONE nomination ever, and it won Best Picture. Plus: the late-addition NASA documentary from the No Other Land directors (produced by Jonathan Glazer), Maggie Gyllenhaal as jury president and what that signals, Nanni Moretti's return to Venice after 36 years, and a brief history of how Venice went from the Mussolini Cup to Hollywood's favourite awards launchpad. Films discussed: Wild Horse Nine · Possible Love · Ink · Bunker · Primetime · Company · Look Back · Woman Unknown · NASA · All of a Sudden · Minotaur · Nomadland · The Shape of Water · Poor Things · Roma · Joker Categories: Best Picture · Best International Feature Film · Best Documentary · Golden Lion 🎬 Subscribe for Venice reaction episodes and our upcoming deep-dive into Best International Feature Film history. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction & news 8:11 Venice history 15:07 Golden Lion predictions 23:31 Oscar sleepers & dark horses 32:26 Personal picks & wrap-up

    These Venice Films Could Take Over the 2027 Oscars? Venice Film Festival Preview!

  2. 8월 25일

    The Odyssey's Secret Weakness? And Who Actually Wins the Writing Oscars

    Is The Odyssey actually WEAK on screenplay? Dylan and Craig make the bold case that Christopher Nolan's writing could be the one category his ancient-Greece epic trips up on — and back it up with a full slate of way-too-early predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2026 Oscars.This week: Tony Gilroy's Behemoth! picked as the surprise Original Screenplay frontrunner, Quentin Tarantino's Cliff Booth script gets the harsh truth about his cultural stock, La Bola Negra vs. The Invite for Adapted winner, and why neither host put Digger anywhere near their lists. Plus: is Project Hail Mary buzz real, or just pre-festival noise?Films covered: The Odyssey, Behemoth!, Wild Horse Nine, The Debut, Fjord, The Invite, La Bola Negra, Project Hail Mary, Dune Part Three, Ink, Club Kid, The Social Reckoning, Josephine, Toy Story 5, Prime Time, Cliff Booth, Hope, Heart of the Beast. Categories: Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay.Chapters:0:00 News roundup16:27 Screenplay category history18:30 Best Original Screenplay predictions31:40 Best Adapted Screenplay predictions46:12 The Odyssey's Achilles heel

    The Odyssey's Secret Weakness? And Who Actually Wins the Writing Oscars

  3. 8월 18일

    The consensus is.... there is no consensus?

    The Oscar race just reshuffled — and we've got receipts. Dylan and Craig dig into the latest Best Picture prediction lists from Variety's Clayton Davis and the full Next Best Picture team, then argue about which hyped contenders are going to quietly vanish by November.On the docket: Project Hail Mary goes from "fake contender" to consensus pick, Digger keeps sliding after that trailer whiff, and Behemoth! emerges as the serious adult drama the race desperately needs. Plus: both hosts just watched The Invite and loved it — so where does Olivia Wilde's chamber comedy actually land among Best Picture, Best Director, and the acting categories? And does Penelope Cruz's clearest path run through The Invite or La Bola Negra?Also in this episode: Austria officially submits Rose (starring Sandra Hüller) for International Feature, Ryan Gosling's Ghost Rider deal and the sad Marvel gravitational pull on prestige actors, Barbie 2's salary standoff, and a quick audit of Best Actress, Actor, and Supporting races.Films discussed: The Invite, The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, Wild Horse Nine, Project Hail Mary, Dune Part 3, Digger, Behemoth!, The Debut, Fjord, Rose, Fatherland, Obsession, Paper Tiger, The Social Reckoning, Being Human, Prime Time, and more.🎬 Subscribe for weekly Oscar race coverage every step of the way to the ceremony.Chapters:0:00 News and headlines11:46 The Invite review26:35 Variety and Next Best Picture lists41:44 Risers, fallers, and wildcards48:54 Acting category predictions

    The consensus is.... there is no consensus?

  4. 8월 5일

    Nolan Gets Roasted by His Own Scholar (Plus: Our Way-Too-Early Best Cinematography Predictions)

    Emily Wilson — the scholar whose Odyssey translation Christopher Nolan called his primary source — just published a scathing review in the London Review of Books, and the hosts dig into whether she's right. Then Dylan and Craig go way too early on their Best Cinematography predictions: who makes the five-nominee shortlist, who gets snubbed, and which pick causes the first real disagreement of the episode.Covered this week: The Odyssey (Hoyte van Hoytema), Digger (Emmanuel Lubezki), Dune Part Three (Linus Sandgren — not Greig Fraser, as one host embarrassingly assumed), Fatherland (Laszlo Lukazal), Werewolf (Jarin Blaschke), Hope (Hong Kyung-pyo, never nominated despite shooting Parasite and Burning), and The Black Ball (La Bola Negra). Plus: a live trailer reaction to Martin McDonagh's Wild Horse Nine, the full New York Film Festival lineup (Paper Tiger, Behemoth, The 14th), and why filming in Western Sahara might become the Odyssey's next Oscar-season headache.Films discussed: The Odyssey · Digger · Dune Part Three · Fatherland · Werewolf · Hope · Wild Horse Nine · Behemoth · Project Hail Mary · The Black BallCategories: Best Cinematography · Best PictureChapters:0:00 Intro and news1:27 New York Film Festival lineup10:35 Emily Wilson vs. Christopher Nolan25:19 Wild Horse Nine trailer reaction30:46 Best Cinematography predictions

    Nolan Gets Roasted by His Own Scholar (Plus: Our Way-Too-Early Best Cinematography Predictions)

  5. 7월 28일

    The Odyssey Could BREAK the All-Time Oscar Record?

    Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is a genuine cultural moment — but could it become the most-nominated film in Oscar history? Dylan and Craig break down the full awards race case for The Odyssey, including whether it can beat Sinners' all-time record of 16 nominations, how the Anne Hathaway lead-vs-supporting decision could push the count to 17, and what history says about Ben-Hur's blueprint for blockbuster Oscar dominance.They also debate every major performance — Robert Pattinson vs. John Leguizamo for Best Supporting Actor, why Tom Holland is the weak link, and the one category (costume design?) where The Odyssey might shockingly miss. Plus: fall festival lineups for Venice, TIFF, and NYFF — what Paper Tiger, Wild Horse Nine, and Dune III mean for the race.Films discussed: The Odyssey, Sinners, Oppenheimer, Ben-Hur, Dune III, Digger, Paper Tiger, Cliff Booth, I Am Rocky, Bucking Faster, Prime Time, Ink. Categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Anne Hathaway), Best Supporting Actor (Pattinson/Leguizamo), Best Supporting Actress (Samantha Morton), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Costume Design.Chapters:0:00 Intro2:00 Festival news: Venice, TIFF & NYFF13:35 The Odyssey: the film & its moment25:54 Cast & performances32:54 Oscar prospects: nominations record & category odds50:51 Dune III threat & final thoughts

    The Odyssey Could BREAK the All-Time Oscar Record?

  6. 7월 14일

    The Digger Trailer Is a Disaster (And Our Full Best Director Predictions)

    The Digger trailer finally dropped — and we are NOT impressed. Dylan and Craig break down why Tom Cruise's long-awaited political satire from Alejandro González Iñárritu feels more like Scary Movie than Dr. Strangelove, and what it means for the Oscar race. Then: our way-too-early Best Director predictions for the 2027 Academy Awards. Who makes the cut? Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey), Denis Villeneuve (Dune 3), Iñárritu himself, Pavel Pawlikowski (Fatherland), Jesse Eisenberg, Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine), and a bold Olivia Wilde pick that Dylan and Craig disagree on. Plus: Penélope Cruz could run Oscar campaigns for THREE films this year, the Michael biopic's jaw-dropping critic/audience score gulf, and why Luca Guadagnino's Sam Altman biopic Artificial may never get a wide release. Films discussed: Digger, The Odyssey, Dune 3, Fatherland, Wild Horse Nine, The Black Ball, Artificial, Michael, Being Human, Prima Facie, Bunker, The Social Reckoning, Cold War, Roma, Birdman, The Revenant, Eyes Wide Shut, Tropic Thunder.#Oscars #BestDirector #TomCruise #Digger #OscarsOutsider

    The Digger Trailer Is a Disaster (And Our Full Best Director Predictions)

  7. 7월 7일

    Our Way-Too-Early 2027 Best Actor/Actress Oscar Predictions

    Who is the most overdue actor in Hollywood? According to a Nate Silver model from 2012, it isn't Leonardo DiCaprio — it's Matt Damon. And he still hasn't won. Now Damon (The Odyssey) and Tom Cruise (Digger) are both heading into the 2027 Oscar race with massive 'he's finally due' narratives — and Dylan and Craig are making their way-too-early calls on who gets in and who takes home the statue. This week: full five-nominee slates for Best Actor and Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, predicted winners, and dark horses nobody else is talking about yet. On the Best Actor side: why the Cruise vs. Damon clash mirrors one of the great rivalries in Oscar history, whether Jeremy Strong (The Social Reckoning) runs as lead or supporting, and why Timothée Chalamet might quietly accumulate his way into the race via Dune 3. On the Best Actress side: why both hosts pick Sandra Hüller but for different movies — and why a new Academy rule could make her the first performer nominated twice in the same category since the 1930s. Plus: the Al Pacino / Scent of a Woman parallel that makes Tom Cruise the 2027 frontrunner, the Ingrid Bergman / Gaslight parallel pointing toward a Hüller win, Craig's case for Julianne Moore (The Debut), and why Elon Musk promoting the new Uwe Boll film as the antidote to The Odyssey might be the funniest thing to happen in Hollywood this year. Films discussed: Digger, The Odyssey, Fjord, The Debut, The Social Reckoning, Michael, Wild Horse Nine, Obsession, Rose, Fatherland, A Place in Hell, Gentle Monster, Project Hail Mary, I Swear, The Invite, Jack of Spades, All of a Sudden 🎬 Subscribe for weekly Oscars race coverage | New episodes every week

  8. 6월 30일

    Our First 2026 Oscar Predictions Are Already a Mess

    It’s way too early… so naturally we’re making our first Oscar predictions. This week on Oscars Outsider, we start building the 2026 Best Picture race from scratch: what already feels like a lock, what feels wildly overhyped, and which movies we’re reluctantly admitting might be stronger than we want them to be. We get into The Odyssey, Digger, Project Hail Mary, Michael, Fjord, Dune: Part Three, Fatherland, Wild Horse Nine, The Social Reckoning, and more. Are Project Hail Mary and Michael already undeniable? Is The Odyssey the obvious frontrunner, or could backlash open the door for Dune: Part Three? And which early contenders are we already ready to drop? Plus: Nolan’s unusual rollout for The Odyssey, the problem with influencer screenings, and why this Oscar race already feels like a mess.

    Our First 2026 Oscar Predictions Are Already a Mess
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Oscars Outsider is a podcast where Craig Midwinter and Dylan Ferguson break down the Oscars the way most people break down sports. We follow the awards race week by week — the narratives, the precursors, the surprises, the discourse, and the strategy behind every contender’s campaign. We treat awards season like a competitive ecosystem, tracking momentum, analyzing the politics of voting bodies, and running our own Oscars Fantasy Draft to score nominations, wins, snubs, and everything in between. If you care about movies and the game behind the movies, you’re in the right place.

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    Oscars Outsider
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    2023년 - 2026년
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