Oscars Outsider

Oscars Outsider

Oscars Outsider is a podcast where Craig Midwinter and Dylan Ferguson break down the Oscars the way most people break down sports. We follow the awards race week by week — the narratives, the precursors, the surprises, the discourse, and the strategy behind every contender’s campaign. We treat awards season like a competitive ecosystem, tracking momentum, analyzing the politics of voting bodies, and running our own Oscars Fantasy Draft to score nominations, wins, snubs, and everything in between. If you care about movies and the game behind the movies, you’re in the right place.

  1. 1시간 전

    Our Way-Too-Early 2027 Best Actor/Actress Oscar Predictions

    Who is the most overdue actor in Hollywood? According to a Nate Silver model from 2012, it isn't Leonardo DiCaprio — it's Matt Damon. And he still hasn't won. Now Damon (The Odyssey) and Tom Cruise (Digger) are both heading into the 2027 Oscar race with massive 'he's finally due' narratives — and Dylan and Craig are making their way-too-early calls on who gets in and who takes home the statue. This week: full five-nominee slates for Best Actor and Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, predicted winners, and dark horses nobody else is talking about yet. On the Best Actor side: why the Cruise vs. Damon clash mirrors one of the great rivalries in Oscar history, whether Jeremy Strong (The Social Reckoning) runs as lead or supporting, and why Timothée Chalamet might quietly accumulate his way into the race via Dune 3. On the Best Actress side: why both hosts pick Sandra Hüller but for different movies — and why a new Academy rule could make her the first performer nominated twice in the same category since the 1930s. Plus: the Al Pacino / Scent of a Woman parallel that makes Tom Cruise the 2027 frontrunner, the Ingrid Bergman / Gaslight parallel pointing toward a Hüller win, Craig's case for Julianne Moore (The Debut), and why Elon Musk promoting the new Uwe Boll film as the antidote to The Odyssey might be the funniest thing to happen in Hollywood this year. Films discussed: Digger, The Odyssey, Fjord, The Debut, The Social Reckoning, Michael, Wild Horse Nine, Obsession, Rose, Fatherland, A Place in Hell, Gentle Monster, Project Hail Mary, I Swear, The Invite, Jack of Spades, All of a Sudden 🎬 Subscribe for weekly Oscars race coverage | New episodes every week

    1시간 9분
  2. Our First 2026 Oscar Predictions Are Already a Mess

    6일 전

    Our First 2026 Oscar Predictions Are Already a Mess

    It’s way too early… so naturally we’re making our first Oscar predictions. This week on Oscars Outsider, we start building the 2026 Best Picture race from scratch: what already feels like a lock, what feels wildly overhyped, and which movies we’re reluctantly admitting might be stronger than we want them to be. We get into The Odyssey, Digger, Project Hail Mary, Michael, Fjord, Dune: Part Three, Fatherland, Wild Horse Nine, The Social Reckoning, and more. Are Project Hail Mary and Michael already undeniable? Is The Odyssey the obvious frontrunner, or could backlash open the door for Dune: Part Three? And which early contenders are we already ready to drop? Plus: Nolan’s unusual rollout for The Odyssey, the problem with influencer screenings, and why this Oscar race already feels like a mess.

    56분
  3. The Oscars Have No Idea What a Score Is

    6월 18일

    The Oscars Have No Idea What a Score Is

    This week on Oscars Outsider, we dive into one of the Academy’s strangest and most confusing categories: Best Original Score.From the early days of studio music departments to decades of split categories, reunited categories, musical exceptions, adaptations, and shifting definitions of what “original” even means, the Oscar for film music has had one of the messiest histories of any Academy Award. We trace how the category changed over time, why musicals caused so many problems, and how the Academy ended up rewarding — and ignoring — some of the most famous scores in movie history.Along the way, we talk Bernard Herrmann, Henry Mancini, Duke Ellington, West Side Story, John Williams, Schindler’s List, Jurassic Park, Hans Zimmer, The Lion King, and why Oscar voters keep struggling to separate great movie music from great scores.

    1시간 5분
  4. Can Spielberg’s Alien Movie Actually Win Oscars?

    6월 12일

    Can Spielberg’s Alien Movie Actually Win Oscars?

    Spielberg is back with aliens — but is that enough to make Disclosure Day a real Oscar contender? This week on Oscars Outsider, we close the book on Cannes, revisit whether the Palme d’Or winner Fjord is now a serious awards player, and dig into the strange politics already forming around its Oscar narrative. Then we turn to the summer movie season: Scorsese’s AI storyboarding controversy, Taylor Swift entering the Best Original Song race with Toy Story 5, whether Project Hail Mary could follow the Sinners path, and the big question behind our thumbnail: can Spielberg turn aliens into Oscar gold one more time? We also talk Netflix’s shifting awards strategy, YouTuber-to-filmmaker anxiety, horror’s box office boom, Obsession, The Backrooms, and why nostalgia for the 1980s may finally be losing to internet-era nostalgia. Chapters: 0:00 Cold Open 0:27 Welcome 0:54 Cannes Capstone: Fjord Wins the Palme d'Or 2:01 The Black Ball & Netflix's Awards Retreat 6:53 Is Fjord the Conservatives' Oscar Movie? 12:52 Scorsese Endorses an AI Company 16:30 Taylor Swift's Toy Story 5 Song 18:14 Project Hail Mary & the Sinners Playbook 19:45 Spielberg's Disclosure Day: Best Picture Player? 25:31 Obsession: The $1M Box Office Monster 28:22 The YouTuber-to-Filmmaker Debate 31:12 Backrooms Review 34:19 The Future of Nostalgia (RIP Masters of the Universe) 36:05 Tribeca & the Holding Pattern 37:33 Honorary Oscars + Outro

    39분
  5. Cannes Winners Reaction: Did the Palme d’Or Just Break the Oscar Race?

    5월 26일

    Cannes Winners Reaction: Did the Palme d’Or Just Break the Oscar Race?

    The Cannes awards are here, and somehow the Oscar race feels less clear than it did before. In this episode of The Oscars Outsider Podcast, we react to the major winners from the Cannes Film Festival, including the Palme d’Or win for Fjord, and try to figure out what any of it means for the Oscar race. The big question: did Cannes give us a new frontrunner, or did it make the whole season even messier? We dig into the Screen Cannes jury grid, where Fjord landed at 2.5 while several other contenders, including Fatherland, Minotaur, and All of a Sudden, scored higher. We also talk through the mismatch between critical consensus and jury awards, which films feel stronger after Cannes, which ones suddenly look shakier, and whether the Palme winner is actually positioned for Oscar attention. If you follow Cannes, Oscar season, festival buzz, or the strange gap between critics’ favorites and awards bodies, this episode is for you. Subscribe for more Oscar race analysis, festival reactions, and awards season chaos.

    28분
  6. Who Wins Cannes? Our Palme d’Or Predictions

    5월 22일

    Who Wins Cannes? Our Palme d’Or Predictions

    Cannes is almost over, which means it is time to make our Palme d’Or predictions. In this episode, we break down the Cannes competition, make our picks for who we think could win the Palme d’Or, and talk through which films might carry momentum into the Oscar race. We get into the strange energy of this year’s festival, the movies that seem built for jury attention, the ones that could break out later, and whether Cannes still feels like the launchpad it used to be. Along the way, we also talk John Travolta’s honorary Palme d’Or, Paul Schrader’s Cannes grumpiness, Jacob Elordi’s jury absence, and the general chaos of trying to read festival buzz from afar. The episode sets up the Palme prediction segment directly in the intro, so this title and thumbnail are aligned with what the show actually promises. Chapters:0:00 Intro0:42 John Travolta's honorary Palme d'Or & Paul Schrader4:24 Setting the stage: Cannes wraps up5:06 Top storylines & the Screen jury grid (Fatherland, Minotaur)9:43 Standing ovations & the clapping arms race12:08 Polarizing films & Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)14:01 Where's Hollywood? Do the studios still need Cannes?20:14 The Bolloré / Canal D scandal22:29 A quiet market & the subtitle problem24:05 Big deals: A24 bidding war & Park Chan-wook's western26:45 Hollywood no-shows: Johansson & Adam Driver27:42 The anti-AI backlash (Soderbergh, del Toro, Radu Jude)32:33 Hope by Na Hong-jin34:59 Jury dynamics & Palme d'Or predictions38:26 Parallel Tales (Asghar Farhadi) flops40:34 Was this a disappointing Cannes?43:04 Golden Globes expands its voting body45:13 Nolan's Odyssey & the casting backlash47:16 Oscar eligibility & the diversity-rule conspiracy56:05 The Daniels cast Matt Damon59:03 Wrap-up & sign-off

    1시간 1분
  7. Which Cannes Movies Could Crash the Oscars?

    5월 13일

    Which Cannes Movies Could Crash the Oscars?

    This week on Oscars Outsider, Cannes is open, but Hollywood might have left the group chat. We dig into a strange Cannes lineup where the big American studio titles mostly stayed home, while European, East Asian, and international festival heavyweights take center stage. What does that mean for the Oscar race? Is Hollywood avoiding the risk of an early festival reaction, or is Cannes simply becoming less dependent on Hollywood glamour? We also look at the films that could emerge from Cannes as real awards contenders, including potential international players, major auteurs returning to the Croisette, and the movies that might shape the Best Picture conversation months from now. It’s Cannes season, which means it’s time to overreact responsibly. Subscribe to Oscars Outsider for awards race analysis, Oscar history, festival coverage, and movie conversations from outside the usual pundit bubble. #Oscars #Cannes #CannesFilmFestival #OscarRace #BestPicture #Movies #AwardsSeason #FilmFestival

    46분
  8. Oscar rule changes: Is Sandra Hüller UNSTOPPABLE?

    5월 5일

    Oscar rule changes: Is Sandra Hüller UNSTOPPABLE?

    The Academy just killed a rule that's been in place since 1931 — and Sandra Hüller might be the first actor in nearly a century to benefit. We get into all three big Oscar rule changes for the 99th Academy Awards: the double-nomination rule, the new path to International Feature, and the AI ban. Plus the quiet Best Original Song tweak that might actually matter most. Then we look at what's already sticky for next year — Project Hail Mary (and why Ryan Gosling's Adam Sandler era needs to end), Michael, Devil Wears Prada 2 — and the early frame of the Best Actor race shaping up around Tom Cruise's Digger and Matt Damon's Odyssey. Greta Gerwig's Narnia just got pushed to 2027. So what's Netflix backing now? 👇 Which actor in Oscars history would have benefited most from being able to get two nominations in one year? Find Dylan on Substack: https://dylanferguson.substack.com/Find Craig at Bravo Outsider: https://www.instagram.com/bravooutsider/ #Oscars #SandraHüller #AcademyAwards

    57분
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소개

Oscars Outsider is a podcast where Craig Midwinter and Dylan Ferguson break down the Oscars the way most people break down sports. We follow the awards race week by week — the narratives, the precursors, the surprises, the discourse, and the strategy behind every contender’s campaign. We treat awards season like a competitive ecosystem, tracking momentum, analyzing the politics of voting bodies, and running our own Oscars Fantasy Draft to score nominations, wins, snubs, and everything in between. If you care about movies and the game behind the movies, you’re in the right place.

정보

  • 제작진
    Oscars Outsider
  • 방송 연도
    2023년 - 2026년
  • 에피소드
    123
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    무삭제판
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    © Oscars Outsider
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