Poly Marks

Andrew, Matt, and Joel
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Poly Marks is a humorous podcast where brothers Andrew, Matt, and moderator Joel explore Polymarket’s markets, share their betting mishaps, and debate trends with sibling flair.

  1. -2 J

    #20. Maple Market Maxxing

    Send a text Episode 20 goes full Canada-maxxing. The boys open on the Liberal Majority by June 30 market. Andrew’s riding the NO, arguing Carney already shot his floor-crosser shot and the only real path left is a snap election. Joel agrees on no majority but doubts Carney risks calling an early vote while comfortably governing with NDP/Green support. The hedge debate kicks in: if you think majority odds hinge on an election, do you double down with a “Yes, election called” position—or just let the clock bleed value into your original bet? From there, Matt drops his favorite play: Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Alberta looks live—signature momentum, Danielle Smith threading the needle, Western alienation simmering. But don’t sleep on Quebec if separatists surge. The trio connect the dots: a surprise Liberal majority could actually increase referendum odds. Small markets, big emotions. They pivot to recession chatter—Canada flirting with contraction while Carney tries to stay ahead of the optics. It’s coin-flippy now, but the boys prefer sharper timelines over year-long macro grinds. Iran check-in: Andrew exits short-term strike bets, reading military buildup as real but likely delayed. Aircraft carriers moving doesn’t mean bombs tomorrow. Olympics optics, midterms, and Gulf-state pressure all muddy the timing. Russia/Ukraine follows: ceasefire probabilities, wartime economies, oil infrastructure hits, and whether Putin ever has incentive to truly stop. Matt sprinkles on a short-term Russian rate decision play—roulette table vibes, but with macro flavor. They close meta: derivative markets on Polymarket, manipulation theories, and the absurdity of betting on whether “Jesus Returns” odds spike above 5%. It’s market structure meets internet degeneracy.

    51 min

  2. -5 J

    #19. Keir Today, Gone Tomorrow

    Send us a text Ep. 19 opens with Epstein spillover markets and Andrew’s spicy angle: betting Keir Starmer resigns (Feb 28 / Jun 30) after Labour’s U.S. ambassador pick Mandelson gets dragged into the newest Epstein-file drop and Starmer looks visibly rattled defending it in Parliament. The boys riff on how everyone lies about Epstein proximity, why the coverup might be the real career-killer, and whether the genie is finally out—public pressure, grandstanding, and “big scalp” fantasies included. Then it’s back to the weekly Iran desk: they debate whether talks in Oman are real progress or just theater, how “Friday strikes” become a tradable pattern, and why timing matters (defense batteries, optics, Olympics, midterms). Cuba gets an update: Diaz-Canel out markets look more plausible with oil/inputs tightening, and they argue whether “invasion” language ever resolves cleanly versus “peacekeeping.” They close on Bitcoin pain & market plumbing: why crypto feels like it’s maturing past the meme era, how institutions may “fractionalize” BTC the way banks do money, and why volatility screams leverage unwinding. Tease for next episode: Canadian separatism referendum market (“not financial advice,” allegedly).

    44 min

  3. 30 JANV.

    #18. Strait Outta Hormuz

    Send us a text In Episode 18, the boys bounce from Middle East war markets to Midwest chaos. Andrew recaps the U.S. military buildup around Iran (tankers, Growlers, F-35s, “nuclear sniffer” vibes) and why the market is pricing a strike as soon-ish, even if Khamenei-out odds aren’t moving much. The crew pivots to an “alpha” angle: instead of betting regime change, they like the cleaner edge on “Khamenei leaves Iran” (cheap odds, multiple plausible endgames). Then it’s Gaza / Board of Peace chatter: Russia/India joining the new “Board of Peace” concept, and a spicy flier on Hamas “disarming” (with loophole-friendly wording). Stateside gets dark and fast: the Minneapolis ICE/Border Patrol protests + shootings spark day-trade opportunities (troops to Minnesota spike that collapses), plus bets on whether federal agents will be charged (likely “no”). They hit the weirdness around the Ilhan Omar vinegar incident and how AI slop instantly poisons the info stream. Finally, the government shutdown market rips (big spike, volatile), the guys briefly roam 2028 candidate lanes, and Andrew flags Cuba as the next pressure point: Mexico cutting oil shipments + Venezuela changes → bullish for Diaz-Canel “out” markets. End with bankroll updates and the usual “we’re so back” energy.

    49 min

  4. 24 JANV.

    #17. Davos We Go Again

    Send us a text In Episode 17, Andrew hosts Matt and Joel for a whip-around of the week’s biggest prediction-market storylines. The guys debate Iran’s trajectory and whether the current “holding pattern” is just the calm before a wider escalation, with talk of carriers, air assets, and the “nothing ever happens” thesis making a comeback. They shift to Greenland and argue what “acquiring part of Greenland” really means—sovereignty vs. a Guantanamo-style jurisdiction deal—plus how any Denmark/Greenland agreement could spike markets long before final resolution. From Davos, they dig into Mark Carney’s global-order rhetoric and what it might signal for Canadian election timing. Finally, they hit Trump’s Fed-chair chatter and roll into hard-asset vs. crypto: gold/silver ripping, Bitcoin’s “fastest horse” case, and how the money printer narrative shapes the next trades.

    44 min

  5. 16 JANV.

    #16. Marks Make Markets Move More Money

    Send us a text This week on The Poly Marks Podcast, the boys break down one of the wildest market weeks yet — as Iran strike odds explode, collapse, and reward traders on both sides. Matt and Andrew walk through how they both made money betting opposite outcomes, why timing matters more than conviction, and how crowd momentum can create short-lived but massive pricing errors. The conversation then moves to domestic politics, including Tim Walz–related markets, fraud allegations, and whether accountability ever reaches the top. They also look at Texas Democratic primary markets, why parties anoint favorites early, and how narrative often matters more than polling. Finally, they pivot back to Venezuela: Maria Corina Machado, her latest headline-grabbing move (including the “peace prize” optics), and what it signals for the transition — plus the Polymarket angle on whether she actually returns to Venezuela before March 31.  Less predictions, more positioning — and another reminder that gambling on the future is easier than predicting it.

    47 min

  6. 9 JANV.

    #15. Marked Down Dictators

    Send us a text This week on The Poly Marks Podcast, the boys take a victory lap as the Maduro-out market resolves, breaking down what happened, what didn’t resolve, and why market wording matters as much as outcomes. From Venezuela’s future and succession questions to rising tension around Iran, Cuba, and even Greenland, the conversation shifts from celebration to positioning. The crew debates timelines, risk management, and why stretching bets often beats chasing fast resolution. The episode closes with early looks at 2028 Republican nomination markets, including Rubio, Vance, DeSantis, and long-shot plays — plus a broader discussion on how to trade prediction markets like markets, not parlays. As always: this is not financial advice — just a group of brothers trying to price the future better than the headlines.

    57 min

  7. 3 JANV.

    #14. Kinetic Strike Out

    Send us a text This week on The Poly Marks Podcast, Joel hosts Matt and Andrew for a fast-moving recap of the week’s biggest markets: a reported kinetic strike in Venezuela that turns into a rules-and-resolution fight, the Supreme Court tariff case and what the justices’ questions might signal, plus rising tension around Iran and the growing sense that a wider conflict is being priced in. The boys finish north of the border with Canada recession odds, Carney/Parliament math, and what it all means for positioning in 2026.

    47 min

  8. 17/12/2025

    #13. Marking the Future

    Send us a text Welcome back to the Poly Marks Podcast — your weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it. This week we hit three big themes: A wild media-merger market (HBO/Warner + Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL) and why “IP” might be the real prize in the AI eraCanada vs the U.S. recession odds (and whether the numbers can be “juiced”)Early 2028 election positioning: who might announce a presidential run before 2027, and why a “sprinkle” can still be a good tradeWe also detour into China vs U.S. economics, data centers, energy constraints, and whether AI is still early innings… or closer to a dot-com style reckoning. Not financial advice. Entertainment only. Chapters 00:00 Cold open — “Delete this, lawyer”  01:10 HBO/Warner merger market: Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL  12:40 AI + IP licensing (why libraries matter)  20:30 Canada recession bet: how it resolves + why it might hit  31:10 U.S. recession odds + tariffs + supply chain uncertainty  40:20 AI bubble “burst” market: what would need to happen  52:10 Venezuela tanker seizure bet: why another one won’t happen this year  58:30 2028 election odds: Kamala “sprinkle,” Newsom skepticism, who announces early  1:06:30 Wrap + year-end recap teaser

    47 min
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À propos

Poly Marks is a humorous podcast where brothers Andrew, Matt, and moderator Joel explore Polymarket’s markets, share their betting mishaps, and debate trends with sibling flair.

Informations

  • Création
    Andrew, Matt, and Joel
  • Années d’activité
    2025 - 2026
  • Épisodes
    20
  • Classification
    Contenu explicite
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Poly Marks
  • Site web de l’émission
    Poly Marks