Power Shifts

Joseph Lavoie
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Power Shifts

Power is always in motion—between political actors, within societies, and across boardrooms. In Power Shifts, Joseph Lavoie explores the forces upending the status quo: the rise of populism, the demographic waves reshaping economies and politics, governments asserting new authority, and the technological revolutions redefining how we live and work. Drawing on over 20 years of experience advising G7 leaders, premiers, and executives, Lavoie reveals the patterns driving these shifts—and what it takes to stay ahead in a world where power never stands still.

  1. What Really Happened in the 2025 Election?

    3D AGO · BONUS

    What Really Happened in the 2025 Election?

    With Hunter Knifton This week on Craft Politics, we revisit the 2025 Canadian federal election—not with hot takes, but with hard data. Our guest is Hunter Knifton, the analyst behind the Charting Canada Substack, who’s challenging two of the most commonly accepted narratives about the election. In this episode: 🗳 The myth of the “NDP-to-Conservative switcher”: why it’s not supported by the numbers 📉 Why the collapse of the PPC—not a working-class revolt—may explain Conservative gains in key ridings 👥 Who actually switched votes—and where? A closer look at new voters, older swing voters, and Carney Conservatives 🔄 Why the left didn’t just coalesce around the Liberals—and why the right’s coalition might be more stable than it looks Plus: 🧭 Hunter breaks down his five-part typology of Carney’s voter base—from downtown professionals to rural commuters 🧱 What the suburban and rural wins say about the Liberals’ long-term potential 🔍 Are the Conservatives targeting the wrong voters with their union strategy? And don’t miss: 🔮 Could Carney’s voter coalition outlast the crisis that built it? 🧠 What Pierre Poilievre’s team might need to rethink before the next election 📊 A sneak peek at Hunter’s next analysis: are we entering a permanent two-party system—or was 2025 a one-off? 🔊 Listen now if you want a clearer picture of what actually happened in the last election—and why most of us probably got it wrong.

    34 min
  2. Mark Carney’s First Six Months—Crisis Manager or Political Novice?

    JUL 2 · BONUS

    Mark Carney’s First Six Months—Crisis Manager or Political Novice?

    With Bridget Howe and Sarina Rehal It’s been six months since Mark Carney smashed through the wall of Canadian politics and declared, “This is a crisis.” He’s been elected. He’s governing. And he’s moving fast. But how far can a technocrat push before political gravity kicks in? To take stock of Carney’s first chapter as Prime Minister, we’re joined by Bridget Howe and Sarina Rehal—two Liberal insiders with deep experience in government, campaigns, and caucus dynamics. They give us an unvarnished read on the Carney style, the risks ahead, and what might break first. In this episode: 🧭 How Carney governs—and why it’s a sharp break from Trudeau ⏱ The pace of change: real momentum or just top-down theatrics? 🧠 Why he’s (so far) been a political novice in name only 🤝 Caucus management, cabinet churn, and how long his honeymoon can actually last Plus: 🇺🇸 Can Carney hold the coalition together once Trump fatigue sets in? 💸 From scrapping the carbon tax to cutting the digital services tax—how is Carney going to pay for this? 🧯 Is he raising expectations faster than government can meet them? And don’t miss: 📉 Why Liberals aren’t missing Pierre Poilievre—or Justin Trudeau ⚔️ Can Carney avoid a BC-style fracture over major projects and pipelines? 💬 Why Bridget and Sarina disagree on who the Liberals really want to lead the Conservatives Also in this episode: 📊 What Carney needs to deliver by fall to prove this isn’t just business as usual 🔮 Is he in it for the long haul—or just the crisis?

    43 min
  3. Sam Coates: Starmer’s Tightrope—Trump, Welfare, and the Trouble Inside Labour

    JUN 25 · BONUS

    Sam Coates: Starmer’s Tightrope—Trump, Welfare, and the Trouble Inside Labour

    With Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor, Sky News This week, we’re joined by Sam Coates, co-host of Politics at Sam and Anne's and one of the UK’s sharpest political analysts, to make sense of a government struggling to hold the line—on foreign policy, economic discipline, and party unity. In this episode: 🇮🇷 Why the UK backed the ends but not the means of Trump’s strike on Iran⚖️ How Starmer’s deference to legal advice is reshaping UK foreign policy—and what it reveals about his break from Blairism🇺🇸 What it means when the UK is the only country warned in advance of a US strike📉 And why the transatlantic relationship may be less stable than it seemsThen we go domestic: 💷 Labour’s looming rebellion on welfare reform: • Over 100 Labour MPs openly defying the PM • A government with a 165-seat majority on the verge of losing a key vote • And no clear plan for what comes next 🧨 Starmer’s political gamble: alienating his base to keep markets calm—and failing to please either 🗳 Could this trigger a leadership challenge? And don’t miss: 📈 Reform UK’s surge: is Prime Minister Farage still far-fetched—or suddenly plausible?🗺 The open question: what is the relationship between Reform and the Conservatives heading into 2028?Also on the radar: ⚖️ Assisted dying and abortion: the social policies no one campaigned on—but that may define this Parliament

    32 min
  4. Israel, Iran, and the moral clarity we need

    JUN 18 · BONUS

    Israel, Iran, and the moral clarity we need

    With Shuvaloy Majumdar, MP for Calgary Heritage This week, Israel launched one of the most significant military operations of our time—decimating Iranian nuclear infrastructure, IRGC command, and ballistic capabilities. The West? Mostly quiet. We go deep with Shuvaloy Majumdar, MP, former advisor at Foreign Affairs, and one of the sharpest, clearest voices on Middle East geopolitics today. In this episode: 🔥 What Operation Rising Lion tells us about the new era of warfare 🧠 Why Iran isn’t just a regional threat—but a global one 🇮🇱 Why we should be thanking Israel 🛰 How Israel’s campaign could reshape the Middle East—and what it means for Iranian dissidents 🛑 And why “de-escalation” may be the most dangerous word in Western diplomacy right now Plus: 🌍 Canada, the UK, and France: how the West is failing to lead 🎯 Why China and Russia are (for now) staying quiet 💡 The power vacuum inside Iran—and the once-in-a-generation opportunity it presents And don’t miss: 🇨🇦 Our domestic lens:  • How Iran’s reach extends into Canada’s real estate and political networks  • Why we should prepare for increased domestic extremism  • And why the response from Canada’s government has been morally bankrupt Also in this episode: 📉 UK economy contracts 0.3%—we talk tax, talent, and the politics of non-doms 🚨 G7 trade wins: UK car tariffs down, UK-Canada security pact brewing, and a possible Carney–Trump deal in 30 days 🎖 Canada’s $9B defence announcement: long overdue, or spending set to burn? 🇺🇸 Trump’s departure from the G7 and ominous remarks on Iran: “It’s much bigger than a ceasefire…” 🔊 Listen now for the clearest, most sobering breakdown of the Israel–Iran conflict—and why it’s a hinge moment for the future of the West.

    58 min

  5. JUN 11 · BONUS

    Can You Spend $9 Billion on Defense Without Lighting It on Fire?

    This week, we crack open a UK import—Hawkstone Lager from Jeremy Clarkson’s farm—and break down Canada’s biggest defence spending announcement in decades. PM Mark Carney has committed to meeting NATO’s 2% target this year, nearly a decade ahead of Trudeau’s original pledge. That’s over $9 billion in new spending—including raises for CAF members, $2B in military aid to Ukraine, and major procurement commitments. But can it all be spent wisely? In this episode: 🇨🇦 Why this announcement matters—and why it hits close to home for Joseph 💸 The risks of rushing defence procurement (and why it’s rarely done well) 🇬🇧 What the UK’s new Strategic Defence Review signals for joint defence priorities 🤝 Why now might be the right time for a Canada–UK security compact Plus: 🧨 Labour’s massive U-turn on winter fuel benefits: smart politics or panic move? 🎯 Is there still room in politics for a sensible, fiscally responsible conservative party? 🇺🇸 Trump sends the Marines to California—why it may be a turning point. Or not. 📉 Canada’s jobless rate rises—are we seeing the limits of the Carney honeymoon? And don’t miss: 🍺 Beer of the week: Hawkstone Lager  • Andrew tastes a biscuit-forward Italian Pilsner with a crisp finish  • Joseph declares it “a Helles lager met an Italian Pilsner and the two had a baby”

    43 min
  6. Why Can’t We Build? The Real Villain Behind Canada’s Housing Crisis

    JUN 4 · BONUS

    Why Can’t We Build? The Real Villain Behind Canada’s Housing Crisis

    With Chris Spoke, developer and host of the Hogtown podcast Every party says they want to fix the housing crisis. But on the ground, very little changes. Why? This week on Craft Politics, we go deep with Chris Spoke—Toronto-based developer, housing policy advocate, and host of the ⁠Hogtown ⁠podcast. Chris isn’t just talking about the housing crisis. He’s trying to build through it. In this episode: 🏘 Why zoning—not greed or foreign buyers—is the real problem 📉 Why the incentives in municipal politics make it nearly impossible to build 🗳 Why “local democracy” might be the biggest obstacle to affordability 📊 What a well-designed federal housing policy should look like—and why Trudeau’s version was better (in theory) than Poilievre’s 🧠 How to bring communities onside (hint: it’s not by yelling “YIMBY”) Plus: 🌇 Why Canada’s post-WWII housing model doesn’t apply in 2025 🏗 The case for radical deregulation—and how Japan and New Zealand did it 📉 The wild stat about how few people it actually takes to block development 💥 The rise of “BANANAs” (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything) And don’t miss: 🚫 Chris’s worst NIMBY moment 🧠 Rapid fire round: worst myth, best policy idea, and his favourite urbanist thinker 🧱 Why landlords aren’t to blame for high rents (but policy might be) We wrap with: 🍺 This week’s tasting notes: Percy drinks a Christmas tree in a can, and Joseph finds his go-to BBQ lager. 🔊 Listen now if you want to understand why the system isn’t working—and what a serious housing fix actually looks like.

    49 min
  7. What Will It Take for Conservatives to Win Urban Canada?

    MAY 28 · BONUS

    What Will It Take for Conservatives to Win Urban Canada?

    With Karen Stintz, former Toronto city councillor and 2025 federal candidate What happens when Conservatives run a strong urban campaign, knock on thousands of doors, and still fall short by 1.4%? This week on Craft Politics, we sit down with Karen Stintz, a political veteran who nearly flipped Eglinton–Lawrence, one of the toughest ridings in the country for Conservatives to crack. She brings the hard-earned lessons from the 2025 campaign trail—and they’re ones the entire movement needs to hear. In this episode: 🗳 What Karen’s close race reveals about urban voters’ shifting priorities 📉 Why the collapse of the NDP didn’t lead to a Conservative win 🏙 The myth that urban voters “just don’t get” conservatism—and how to break it 📺 The power of legacy media in big cities (and why it still shapes the ballot question) 🤝 Why it’s time for Conservatives to stop fighting and start making friends and allies Plus: 🚨 We debate the missed opportunity for compassionate conservatism on homelessness and addiction 🇨🇦 Karen delivers a stinging critique: “How did we let patriotism slip away from us?” 🧱 Should the rebuilding of urban conservatism start at the municipal level? And don’t miss: 🎤 A surprise drop-in from Andrew Percy, live from being eaten alive by Ottawa’s mosquitoes after attending the King’s Speech 🦝 Joseph’s failed political dreams of running a raccoon-free campaign for Mayor of Toronto 📰 An issue scan covering:  • Charles III’s parliamentary visit  • Carney’s single mandate letter  • Reform UK’s lurch leftward to challenge Labour  • And why CEO turnover is the sleeper political story of the year 🔊 Listen now if you want to understand why urban ridings are still so hard to win—and what it’s going to take to change that.

    38 min
  8. Craft Politics: Did Brexit Just Make Britain More European?

    MAY 22 · BONUS

    Craft Politics: Did Brexit Just Make Britain More European?

    With Christine Quigley This week on Craft Politics, we untangle the landmark UK–EU trade and defense deal that’s being hyped as the biggest reset since Brexit. But is it a meaningful shift—or just another half-step wrapped in headlines? To sort it all out, we’re joined by our colleague Christine Quigley, a seasoned political strategist and proud Remainer, who brings sharp insight and sharper opinions. Together with Andrew Percy (our resident Brexiteer) and Joseph Lavoie (your foreigner), we dive into: 🇬🇧 What this new agreement actually includes (yes, British sausages are back on the EU menu) ⚖️ The political balancing act Keir Starmer must pull off between urban Europhiles and working-class Brexit voters 🌍 Why this deal matters for Canada—and how it might complicate future trade with the UK 🎯 The growing Reform Party threat and what it says about voter trust in mainstream politics 🧠 And a spicy take: Has Brexit ironically made Britain more European? Plus: 🥊 Christine and Andrew trade polite jabs across the Brexit divide 🇨🇦 Joseph explains why Canadians love the idea of being European—but not the trade-offs 🧀 And we ask: What is Canada willing to give up to strike new trade deals? Spoiler: probably not dairy. 🔊 Listen now if you’re curious about where Britain fits into the world post-Brexit, what lessons it holds for Canada, and why every serious trade deal comes down to the same question: What are you willing to give up to get what you want?

    38 min
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About

Power is always in motion—between political actors, within societies, and across boardrooms. In Power Shifts, Joseph Lavoie explores the forces upending the status quo: the rise of populism, the demographic waves reshaping economies and politics, governments asserting new authority, and the technological revolutions redefining how we live and work. Drawing on over 20 years of experience advising G7 leaders, premiers, and executives, Lavoie reveals the patterns driving these shifts—and what it takes to stay ahead in a world where power never stands still.

Information

  • Creator
    Joseph Lavoie
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2025
  • Episodes
    109
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Joseph Lavoie
  • Show Website
    Power Shifts

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