Sentinel Minutes

Sentinel Team
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What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out. Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature. Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org

  1. MAY 18

    ″🟩 US and China discuss AI guardrails, Ebola declared a Public Health Emergency, Trump and Iran trade barbs || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Technology and AI: The US and China discussed AI guardrails to mitigate risks from frontier AI models. Will the US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027 in which both governments state or clearly imply reciprocal expectations, commitments, rules, or norms governing AI development, deployment, security, or military use? Our forecasters believe there's a 21% (15% to 35%) probability. Before 2027, will the US publicly support creating or moving toward an international AI governance body with an IAEA-like role that includes China? Our forecasters think there's a 8.7% (5% to 15%) chance. Biorisk: A new Ebola outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. As of June 13, 2026, what will be the cumulative total number of recorded deaths linked to the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak first confirmed in Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in May 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 50th percentile estimate is 208 (185 to 230). Geopolitics: Donald Trump again warned Iran to agree to a peace deal quickly, and shared an AI-generated image of him pressing a red button with a mushroom cloud in the background. [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (02:51) Geopolitics (02:53) Middle East (03:43) Europe (04:09) The Americas (04:11) Latin America (07:21) The United States (07:48) Asia-Pacific (08:00) Africa (09:06) Technology and artificial intelligence (11:04) Biorisk (12:56) Economy --- First published: May 18th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-guardrails --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    16 min

  2. MAY 11

    ″🟡 US-Iran stalemate continues, Putin says Ukraine war may come to an end, White House considers AI executive order || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #19/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US’ latest peace proposal “totally unacceptable”. Vladimir Putin hinted that the Russia-Ukraine war may be nearing an end. Will Russia and Ukraine end the war with a signed agreement by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 35% (25% to 50%) chance. Technology and AI: The White House is reportedly considering introducing an executive order mandating that the government reviews new AI models before they are released to the public. Will the US Federal Government through executive order or legislation regulate the release of all new AI models from frontier laboratories by November 3rd, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 32% (27% to 40%) probability. Economy: The S&P 500's rebound since late March has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, namely a handful of Big Tech stocks. Will the tech companies Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom, and Apple account for at least 65% of overall growth of the S&P 500 in Q4 of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 33% (15% to 60%) chance. Biorisk: Passengers who were on the cruise ship associated with the hantavirus outbreak are [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:40) Geopolitics (02:43) Middle East (03:35) Europe (04:37) The Americas (04:40) Latin America (05:02) The United States (05:35) Asia-Pacific (06:12) Technology and artificial intelligence (07:46) Economy (09:13) Biorisk (11:44) Nature and climate --- First published: May 11th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-stalemate-continues-putin --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    13 min

  3. MAY 4

    ″🟡 Iran says it will target US naval vessels, GPT-5.5 similar to Mythos on cyber tasks || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2026″ by Nuño Sempere

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran unveiled a fresh peace proposal, but Trump was not satisfied with it and says that Iran has not paid a big enough price for the war to end yet. The US said it would guide stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran warned it could attack US naval vessels in response. Will Congress put any constraints on the war in Iran by June 1, 2026, using the War Powers Act? Our forecasters think there's a 6% (5% to 7%) chance. Will there be a new conflict in Africa that kills over 100 thousand people before May 1, 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 17% (15% to 30%) chance. Technology and AI: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 was found to have a similar level of performance to Anthropic's Mythos model on the UK AISI's suite of cyber tasks. Unlike Mythos, it has been publicly deployed. Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5, making it unavailable to the general public, before 2027 because of its use in cyberattacks? Our forecasters believe there's a 7% (5% to 8%) chance. Economy: Brent crude oil prices reached a new war-related high, as did gas prices in the US. Outgoing [...] --- Outline: (00:18) Executive summary (02:09) Geopolitics (02:12) Middle East (03:07) The Americas (03:48) The United States (04:58) Europe (05:30) Africa (06:03) Technology and artificial intelligence (10:10) Economy (13:08) Biorisk (13:37) Nature and climate --- First published: May 4th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-says-it-will-target-us-naval --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    13 min

  4. APR 27

    ″🟡 US-Iran peace talks called off, unauthorized access to Claude Mythos, shots fired at Trump dinner, El Niño coming || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Another round of peace talks between the US and Iran failed to materialise, with Iran only committing to indirect talks in Islamabad and US negotiators cancelling their trip to Pakistan. Will direct or indirect US-Iran negotiations, with representatives from both nations present in the same country, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's an 80% (75% to 85%) chance. Will the US end its naval blockade of Iranian ports before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 47% (33% to 70%) chance. Will US strikes on Iranian territory, excluding strikes on boats, ships and waterborne drones, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 46% (40% to 55%) probability. Technology and AI: Unauthorized users reportedly gained access to Anthropic's Mythos model. Will Anthropic release a model to the general public that outperforms Mythos Preview on over 50% of examined benchmarks including the words “agentic” and “coding” before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 73% (51% to 90%) chance. Economy: The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Trump's nominee to be Federal Reserve Chair looks set to get a Senate hearing after the Department of Justice dropped its case [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:31) Geopolitics (02:34) Middle East (04:18) Asia (05:26) The Americas (05:29) The United States (06:26) The Rest of the Americas (07:05) Europe (07:17) Economy (08:24) Technology and artificial intelligence (10:59) Nature and climate (12:57) Miscellaneous --- First published: April 27th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-peace-talks-called-off-unauthorized --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    13 min

  5. APR 20

    ″🟡 US seizes Iranian cargo ship, Iran-US peace talks uncertain, cyberattack estimates || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2026″ by Nuño Sempere

    Executive summary Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends. Will there still be ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran on November 3, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 20% (5% to 40%) chance. Will the Democrats take the Senate in the US midterms? Our forecasters believe there's a 41% (10% to 63%) probability. Will enough US states join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact for it to reach 270 Electoral College votes by November 7, 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 12.5% (10% to 20%) chance. If so, and conditional on the Supreme Court ruling on its constitutionality, will the Supreme Court rule in favour of the Compact? Our forecasters believe there's a 35% (10% to 57%) probability. If the Compact gets to the 270 threshold and stands before November 7, 2028, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? Our forecasters provide a 2% (0.5% to 7%) estimate. If it does not, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? [...] --- Outline: (00:17) Executive summary (03:50) Geopolitics (03:53) Middle East (06:34) The Americas (06:37) The United States (08:55) The Rest of the Americas (09:33) Asia (10:08) Africa (10:23) Economy (12:01) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: April 20th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-iran --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    16 min

  6. APR 13

    ″🟡 US to blockade Iranian ports, Iran peace talks end without agreement, Anthropic Mythos released to tech and cyber firms || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and the US failed to reach an agreement, and the US is now effectively blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries officially remains in place. What is the chance that the US will still be conducting a naval blockade of Iran on June 1 2026? Forecasters think there's a 28% (15% to 55%) chance. What is the chance that the IRGC will attack a US Navy vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf before June 1 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 50% (40% to 60%) probability. What is the chance that Trump will no longer be in office (permanently) before December 2026? Forecasters think there's a 6.7% (4% to 16%) chance. Will Israel conduct fewer than 30 airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon during the month of June? Forecasters assign a 65% (45% to 80%) probability to this outcome. Technology and AI: Anthropic announced that it has developed a new model, Claude Mythos, but it considers the model to be sufficiently dangerous that it has limited access to the model to large tech and [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:45) Geopolitics (02:48) Middle East (06:18) Europe (07:45) The Americas (07:48) The United States (09:42) The Rest of the Americas (10:01) Asia (10:14) Economy (11:17) Technology and artificial intelligence (13:54) Nature and climate --- First published: April 13th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-to-blockade-iranian-ports-iran --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    15 min

  7. APR 6

    ″🟡 Trump threatens Iranian power and desalination plants, aviators from downed F-15E rescued, Claude Code leak, updated ASI timelines || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump threatened to bomb power and desalination plants in Iran if they do not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after indicating that he’d be willing to walk away from the war without its reopening earlier in the week. Pakistan submitted a fresh ceasefire proposal to both parties. Will the US and Israel end hostilities against Iran by April 21, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 20% (8% to 42%) probability. Will the US place more than 1,000 troops on the ground in Iran before July 2026? We think there's a 39% (20% to 55%) chance. If so, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate estimate is August 12 2026 (80% CI: May 24 2026 - June 3 2030). If not, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate is May 30 2026 (80% CI: April 20 2026 - Sept 13 2027). Will Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party win the Hungarian parliamentary election? We think there's a 44% (35% to 60%) chance. Technology and AI: The authors of AI 2027 updated their forecasts. Anthropic accidentally leaked the source code to Claude Code. [...] --- Outline: (00:24) Executive summary (03:36) Geopolitics (03:39) Middle East (08:22) Europe (09:52) The Americas (10:41) Asia (10:55) Economy (11:56) Technology and artificial intelligence (14:26) Biorisk --- First published: April 6th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-iranian-power-and --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    15 min

  8. MAR 30

    ″🟡 Iranian steel and nuclear plants bombed, Houthi attacks begin, AI solves open problem in mathematics || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #13/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Israel attacked a number of steel and nuclear sites in Iran. The Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the beginning of the Iran War. US Marines and Special Operations Forces have arrived in the Middle East, amid increasing discussion of the potential deployment of US combat forces in Iran. Will the Houthis attack or seize at least one ship before May 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 64% (50% to 77%) chance. Will the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 25% (18% to 30%) probability of a government being in power that does not include the IRGC. Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 66% (55% to 80%) chance. Technology and AI: Epoch announced that one of its FrontierMath open problems was solved for the first time, by GPT-5.4 Pro. A federal judge temporarily halted the Pentagon's designation of Anthropic as a supply-chain risk. Will AI have solved at least 1 problem that qualifies as a “solid result” in Epoch's FrontierMath: Open Problems collection [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (02:50) Geopolitics (02:53) Middle East (08:03) Europe (09:05) Asia (09:55) The Americas (10:21) Economy (14:11) Technology and artificial intelligence (16:19) Biorisk --- First published: March 30th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iranian-steel-and-nuclear-plants --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    18 min
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About

What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out. Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature. Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org

Information

  • Creator
    Sentinel Team
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    71
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 All rights reserved
  • Show Website
    Sentinel Minutes

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