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Sentinel Team
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What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out. Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature. Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org

  1. 3H AGO

    ″🟡 US and Israel strike Iran, Iran retaliates against US allies, Anthropic designated a supply chain risk || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #9/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: The US and Israel attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran retaliated by striking US bases and allied countries in the region. Also, an arms sale to Taiwan has been paused by the US to ensure that Trump's April visit to Beijing goes smoothly. Will Iran's regime fall by the end of 2026? Forecasters assign a 45% (32% to 70%) probability thereof. Will there be >50 US fatalities (civilian or uniformed) anywhere in the world linked to the conflict in Iran or attributed to Iran or its proxies by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (35% to 60%) chance. Will there be >100 Israeli fatalities (civilian or uniformed) linked to the conflict in Iran by the end of 2026? The team believes there's a 58% (45% to 70%) probability. Will Israel's airspace reopen before April 2026? With Israeli authorities saying they may very gradually reopen their airspace over the next week, most forecasters are now at >95% here. Will the Houthis seize or sink at least one ship before May 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 42% (20% to 68%) chance. Technology and AI: Anthropic was designated a [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (03:02) Geopolitics (03:04) Middle East (07:36) Asia (08:12) Latin America (08:31) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: March 2nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-israel-strike-iran-iran-retaliates --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    12 min

  2. FEB 23

    ″🟩 US buildup in Middle East continues, Russian vessel en route to Cuba, AI time horizons lengthen | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #8/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continued to move military assets to the Middle East and Europe. A Russian tanker believed to be carrying oil is on its way to Cuba, in potential violation of a US embargo. There is unrest in Mexico after a cartel leader was killed. Will the US strike Iran by March 8, the end of March, or the end of June? Forecasters provide estimates of 38% (25% to 51%), 66% (55% to 75%) and 79% (65% to 90%), respectively. Conditional on this happening by the end of June, will there have been 30 consecutive days without any US strikes on Iran on November 3, 2026 (the date of the midterms)? Forecasters estimate a 78% (60% to 90%) chance. Conditional on a strike by the end of June, will cyberattacks that the team believe were credibly attributed to Iran occur by the end of June and cumulatively lead to more than 10 estimated deaths? Forecasters give a 6.5% (2.0% to 15%) chance. Will the US remove (either partially or completely) sanctions against Cuba by the end of 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 48% (31% to 67%) probability. Will any oil [...] --- Outline: (00:20) Executive summary (02:58) Geopolitics (03:01) Middle East (07:19) Europe (08:13) Asia (08:30) Africa (08:46) Latin America (09:55) Technology and artificial intelligence (09:59) Capabilities (12:13) Governance (17:17) Economy --- First published: February 23rd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-buildup-in-middle-east-continues --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    19 min

  3. FEB 16

    ″🟩 US sends second aircraft carrier to Middle East, European nuclear deterrent discussed, pandemic preparedness deprioritized at NIAID | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #7/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump again expressed support for regime change in Iran and sent a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East, but also said that nuclear talks will continue. Some European leaders are floating the idea of a common European nuclear deterrent, but Spain's PM is opposed to “nuclear rearmament”. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters give a 69% (58% to 90%) probability thereof. Will it strike Iran before July 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (40% to 55%) chance. Will more than 10,000 people take part in protests in Tehran before February 20? Forecasters believe there's a 47% (35% to 58%) probability. Technology and AI: Bernie Sanders reiterated that he plans to introduce federal legislation for a moratorium on data center construction. A Chinese AI startup trained its new model entirely on Huawei chips. Anthropic was valued at almost $380B. Will a federal moratorium on data center construction become law before 2029? Forecasters give a 4% (2% to 7%) probability thereof. Will a Chinese AI model enter the top 3 on Epoch's Capabilities Index by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 12% (10% to 18%) [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:14) Geopolitics (02:17) Middle East (04:39) Europe (06:58) Asia (07:10) United States (09:41) Technology and artificial intelligence (13:07) Economy (13:22) Biorisk (14:15) Nature and climate (14:43) Miscellaneous --- First published: February 16th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-sends-second-aircraft-carrier --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    15 min

  4. FEB 9

    ″🟩 Anthropic and OpenAI release new models, US-Iran talks continue, illegal biolab in the US, nuclear arms treaty expires | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #6/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: American and Iranian negotiators met for nuclear talks in Oman. No agreement was reached, but both sides said the talks will continue. A nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia expired. Will Iran's current regime and the US reach any agreement around Iran's nuclear program before July 1, 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 17% (5.0% to 32%) probability thereof. What is the chance that any of the US, China or Russia will start any negotiations towards a new nuclear arms treaty by the end of 2026? Forecasters estimate around even odds, 52% (40% to 65%). What is the chance that a new country will acquire nuclear weapons by 2030? Forecasters give a 5.3% (1.0% to 15%) chance to this outcome. Technology and AI: Anthropic and OpenAI released their most powerful models to date. Both companies said that the models were mostly built by AIs, and that some of their benchmarks that were designed to detect dangerous capabilities have been saturated. METR assessed GPT-5.2 (high) to be SOTA on its time horizon task suite. Will METR assess any AI to have a time horizon of 100 hours by the [...] --- Outline: (00:22) Executive summary (02:10) Technology and artificial intelligence (05:46) Geopolitics (05:49) Middle East (06:27) Europe (07:30) Asia (08:12) Biorisk (09:11) Economy (09:48) Nature and Climate --- First published: February 9th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-and-openai-release-new --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    10 min

  5. FEB 2

    ″🟩 AI social network Moltbook grows, US-Iran tensions simmer, Nipah pandemic unlikely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #5/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 31% (17% to 60%). Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be the President of Cuba before April 2026? Forecasters think there is a 22% (10% to 51%) chance. Technology and AI: Moltbook, a new social network for AI agents, has attracted a lot of human attention. A $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal is unlikely to go ahead in its original form. What's the probability that OpenAI and/or Anthropic collapses by the end of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 12% (8.0% to 20%) chance. Biorisk: Airports in Asian countries, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are screening passengers for Nipah virus, following the infection of two nurses in India. Will the World Health Organization declare the spread of Nipah virus [...] --- Outline: (00:19) Executive summary (02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence (09:22) Geopolitics (09:24) Middle East (11:18) Europe (13:18) The Americas (13:21) Latin America (16:06) North America (20:22) Asia (21:22) Africa (21:43) Biorisk (23:07) Economy (25:08) Nature and climate --- First published: February 2nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-social-network-moltbook-grows --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    26 min

  6. JAN 26

    ″🟩 Trump walks back Greenland threats, US sends warships to the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #4/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump backtracked on plans for the US to own Greenland and to impose tariffs on imports from some European countries that opposed an American takeover of Greenland, and he also ruled out using military force to take the territory. The US continued to move military assets into the Middle East, with Trump saying that military action against Iran is possible. The first trilateral peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia took place in the UAE, but they made little progress. Tensions between protesters and ICE remain high in Minneapolis. Will the US carry out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 66% (50% to 78%) probability. Will there be regime change in Iran by then? This would involve the IRGC no longer holding power. Forecasters estimate a 17% (10% to 24%) chance. Will there be a ceasefire of any duration (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 5.1% (4.0% to 7.0%) probability. Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before March 2026? Forecasters estimate a 30% (5% to 65%) chance. Technology and AI: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (02:50) Geopolitics (02:53) Europe (05:38) Middle East (08:33) The Americas (08:36) Latin America (09:09) North America (14:51) Asia (16:26) Africa (16:38) Technology and artificial intelligence (20:12) Economy (22:15) Biorisk (22:43) Nature and climate --- First published: January 26th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-walks-back-greenland-threats --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    23 min

  7. JAN 19

    ″🟨 “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace”, “that’d be pretty morally bankrupt. and he’s really not an idiot” || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #3/2026” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase. Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI. Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention. Forecasters think there's a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026. They also think there's a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (03:11) Geopolitics (03:14) Europe (07:44) Middle East (11:58) The Americas (12:01) Latin America (13:25) United States (15:00) Asia (15:20) Africa (15:47) Technology and artificial intelligence (19:11) Economy The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: January 19th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/i-no-longer-feel-an-obligation-to --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

    21 min

  8. JAN 12

    ″🟩 Trump administration mulls strikes on Iran and says the US will own Greenland, DOJ launches investigation into Fed Chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #2/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

    Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump is seriously considering intervening militarily in Iran to assist anti-government protesters. He says that the US will “own” Greenland and that this can either be done “the easy way” or the “hard way”. And he says that the US will conduct strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil. Forecasters think there's a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high. They think there's a 23% chance (10% to 40%) that the US annexes, acquires or enters into a compact of free association with Greenland in 2026. Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 36.5% for the remainder of Trump's term. They think there's a 2.5% chance (0.5% to 7%) that the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which can remove the sitting President, will be invoked [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Executive summary (03:56) Geopolitics (03:59) Middle East (06:07) Europe (09:42) The Americas (09:45) Latin America (13:33) United States (16:24) Asia (16:56) Africa (17:03) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: January 12th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

    19 min
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About

What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out. Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature. Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org

Information

  • Creator
    Sentinel Team
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    60
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 All rights reserved
  • Show Website
    Sentinel Minutes

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