Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. قبل ٢٠ ساعة

    The Case That We Are in the Early Stages of an AI Bull Market | Gene Munster and Doug Clinton

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Gene Munster and Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management join Justin and Jack to explore the technological, economic, and investing implications of AI. They discuss why they believe we’re still in the early stages of a multi-year bull market driven by AI, how the technology is reshaping jobs and productivity, and what it means for investors. The conversation also covers how companies like Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Meta fit into this AI cycle, the energy demands of AI, and the future of AI-driven investing through Intelligent Alpha and its GPT ETF. Topics covered: • Why Gene and Doug believe AI represents a once-in-a-generation wealth creation opportunity • How AI may impact corporate profitability and hiring trends • The political and social dynamics slowing AI adoption • Doug’s “detective, people-pleaser, and tastemaker” framework for future human jobs • How Intelligent Alpha uses large language models to manage portfolios • The advantages of AI-driven investment models over humans • Economic and market implications of an AI productivity boom • The hardware-data-application structure of technological cycles • The role of energy, especially nuclear and solar, in supporting AI growth • The competitive race among model providers like OpenAI, Google, and Meta • Apple’s long-term AI positioning and potential comeback • Tesla’s valuation, autonomy vision, and the future of robotics • The inevitability and function of bubbles in breakthrough technologies • The rise of private markets and retail investor access to innovation • Future frontiers in quantum computing and biotechnology Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Deepwater’s AI thesis 03:00 Why AI marks a multi-year bull market opportunity 08:00 Political reality and limits of AI deployment 11:00 The future of human work: detectives, people-pleasers, tastemakers 16:00 Inside Intelligent Alpha and the GPT ETF 19:00 Why AI can outperform human managers 25:00 How AI affects productivity, margins, and employment 26:00 Hardware, data, and application cycle in AI 28:00 The energy constraint: nuclear, gas, and solar 29:30 The model race: OpenAI, Google, Meta 34:00 Apple’s role and long-term AI potential 39:30 Tesla, autonomy, and long-term disruption 44:00 Are bubbles necessary for technological revolutions? 49:00 Private vs. public investing in innovation 51:00 Beyond AI: quantum computing and life extension technologies 54:45 Closing thoughts

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  2. قبل يومين

    Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking | Tobias Carlisle

    Buy Toby's Bookhttps://amzn.to/478SMBfIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from The Art of War apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without conflict to the disciplined avoidance of ruin. The conversation connects Buffett’s real-world decisions—from Apple to General Re to Japan’s trading houses—to broader lessons on temperament, risk, and wisdom in markets. Main topics covered:• The three key ideas from The Art of War that define Buffett’s approach: invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength• Why Buffett’s General Re acquisition was a misunderstood masterstroke in defensive investing• How Buffett achieved “victory without conflict” through his massive Apple investment• The principle of via negativa — succeeding by avoiding mistakes and ruin• Temperament vs. intellect and the psychology of avoiding self-defeat• Circle of competence and why simplicity often beats complexity• Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in investing decisions• How Buffett applies wu wei (effortless action) through patience and alignment with natural forces• Lessons from Buffett’s Japanese trading house investments and moral law in business• The role of reputation, intuition (coup d’œil), and character in long-term investing• Charlie Munger’s blueprint and the strategic architecture of Berkshire Hathaway Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and overview of Tobias Carlisle’s key ideas02:00 Applying Sun Tzu’s “invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength” to Buffett06:00 The General Re acquisition as a defensive masterpiece12:00 Victory without conflict — Buffett’s Apple investment19:00 The principle of via negativa and avoiding ruin22:00 Survival, temperament, and controlling emotion in investing25:00 Circle of competence and the power of simplicity28:00 Sins of omission vs. sins of commission32:00 Temperament, intellect, and avoiding self-defeat40:00 Wu wei and investing with effortless alignment49:00 Position sizing, concentration, and the Kelly Criterion50:00 Buffett’s investments in Japan’s trading houses56:00 Reputation, intuition, and the power of pattern recognition61:00 Charlie Munger’s blueprint and Buffett’s strategic genius64:00 Closing thoughts and where to find Tobias online

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  3. قبل ٣ أيام

    Timeless Lessons from a Trend Following Legend | Jerry Parker

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Jerry Parker joins us for a deep dive into the philosophy and practice of trend following. As one of the original Turtle Traders, Jerry shares lessons from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, explores how trend following has evolved over the decades, and offers timeless wisdom on markets, psychology, and risk management. From his early days in the Turtle Trading program to running Chesapeake Capital today, Jerry explains what it takes to survive and thrive as a systematic trader in an uncertain world. Topics covered: • The origins of the Turtle Trading program and what Jerry learned from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt • How trend following has evolved from short-term to longer-term systems • Why trading psychology is harder than following the rules • The role of discomfort and doing “hard things” in successful investing • The design and diversification of a robust trading universe • Risk management, drawdowns, and letting profits run • Why trend following belongs alongside a 60/40 portfolio • How ETFs are expanding access to managed futures strategies • Incorporating crypto and new markets into trend following systems • The internal truths of trend following and why smooth returns can be dangerous Timestamps: 00:00 Trading should be hard 02:00 The origins of the Turtle Trading program 08:00 Evolution of trend following systems 12:00 The psychology of following rules 16:00 The famous Turtle Trader true/false test 20:00 Could the Turtle program work today? 23:00 Building a diversified trading universe 28:00 Risk management and position sizing 32:00 How trend following complements 60/40 portfolios 38:00 Managed futures, stocks, and diversification 41:00 The rise of trend-following ETFs 45:00 Incorporating crypto and futures 48:00 Where the strongest trends are now 52:00 AI and systematic investing 53:30 The internal truths of trend following 56:00 The belief Jerry holds that most investors would disagree with

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  4. قبل ٤ أيام

    The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Finding the Next Great Compounders

    Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife Subscribe on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003 Subscribe on YouTube https://youtube.com/@excessreturns

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  5. قبل ٦ أيام

    Investing in a Debasement Regime | Warren Pies

    Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal. Main topics covered • The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime • Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal • Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic • The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today • Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis” • How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again • Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further • Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend • Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world • AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation • What could ultimately break the debasement regime Timestamps 00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset 07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel 10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook 16:42 The labor market’s “malignant stasis” and what it signals 21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment 29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt 34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,000 38:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps 41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations 45:08 Gold’s breakout and how to manage the position 50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era 54:32 AI’s potential to reshape productivity and demographics 57:13 What could end the debasement regime 59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals

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  6. ٩ أكتوبر

    The Four Pillars of Macro - And What They Say About This Market | Andy Constan

    Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction. Topics covered: Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing Andy’s Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows How AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stops Tariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growth The Fed’s independence and what it means for markets Risk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environments How major flows and corporate buybacks shape market direction Why Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomes Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and setup 02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing 14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained 22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom 33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy 39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios 40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment 47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty 48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation 56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt 01:00:00 What Andy’s watching next 01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital

    ١ س ٨ د

  7. ٩ أكتوبر

    What a Global Regime Change Means for Investors | Julian Brigden

    In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything not tied to the U.S. Topics covered: The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottoms Why this may be the best macro environment in 40 years The policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollar Positioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assets How Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his process The dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadership Inflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenon Why AI’s economic impact will take longer than expected The probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenarios Fiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repression Why bonds are “a crap place to have your cash” The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equities Lessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders” Timestamps: 00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk 02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets 06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity 08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump 12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline 15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation 20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility 26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation 36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities 42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance 47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook 51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity 56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy 01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment 01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking

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  8. ٨ أكتوبر

    Big Rally. First Sell Signal Since April | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Say Could Come Next

    Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end. Main topics covered: • The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum • The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process • Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction • Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase • Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples • Trends in financials and what’s driving sector rotations • Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning • The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration • Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar • How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving • Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-end Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup 04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators 07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages 10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals 12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market 15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq 18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade 20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation 23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy 25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups 27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning 29:00 Financials and recent weakness 31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy 34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration 37:00 Gold’s breakout and sell discipline using technicals 41:00 Oil’s setup and resistance levels 43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis 46:20 The dollar index and its key levels 48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds 51:10 Final takeaways and closing

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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  • صناع العمل
    Excess Returns
  • سنوات النشاط
    ٢٠١٩ - ٢٠٢٥
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  • التقييم
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  • حقوق النشر
    © 905628
  • موقع البرنامج على الويب
    Excess Returns

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