Interviews, ideas and more on stocks.
Buys This Week: NTDOY and NCMI Updates
I bought both Nintendo (NTDOY) and National CineMedia (NCMI) this week and use this podcast to explain my thinking. I preview Nintendo's earnings ahead of its February 1st Q3 release and discuss why I think growth expectations are too low. Next, I react to the Wall Street Journal's recent article on National CineMedia and the revelation they've engaged lawyers to work with senior lenders. Should NCMI equity holders be concerned about the debt?
2020 Review and 2021 Predictions with The Impervious
The Impervious and I review our best and worst trades of 2020 and make bold predictions for 2021.
Phil Andrews: Cathie's Ark and Building Understanding from Data
My guest today is Phil Andrews, the creator of Cathie’s Ark (cathiesark.com). I use Cathie’s Ark almost daily to source investing ideas by looking at trade data from the ARK Invest ETFs. Phil has done an amazing job making this data understandable and actionable.Phil gives the backstory behind Cathie's Ark and the underlying sources of data for the website. He explains the many reasons for changing fund compositions in ARKK, ARKW, ARKG, ARKF, including forced buying and selling of equities due to buys and sells of the ETF shares, potential limits around how much of public companies Cathie Wood and team are willing to own and risk limits ARK observes. Phil overviews the hidden risk in how buying or selling of ARK ETF shares can compound up moves or drawdowns.I ask Phil about recent trends in the ARK ETFs and he reviews increases in TDOC across the funds (250%+ increase in ARKK in 2 months), selling out of ILMN after a questionable acquisition and more. Phil dives deep on genomics and the implications of AlphaFold on Google, which is now an ARKG holding. We review the top holdings in his PA (TSLA, OPEN, Bitcoin) and how it has been influenced by ARK.Phil walks through some of the many features on Cathie’s Ark, including how to review portfolio trends, contributions over specific time periods to ETF returns, tracing a stock’s growth or decline in ARK ETFs, the Trading Floor and more. Importantly, Phil highlights why it’s important to him that Cathie’s Ark will always be free and the benefits of knowledge and transparency being spread on the internet.This conversation was awesome and I’m excited to dig into many of the names Phil talked about. I strongly recommend checking out https://cathiesark.com, the trading floor at http://tradingfloor.cathiesark.com and the Cathie’s Ark Twitter feed at https://twitter.com/cathiesark for more insights on the ARK Investing ETFs.
Sunday Options (12/20/2020): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious
Sean and I talk about the potential implications of the SolarWinds breach and how we are in the early innings of this developing story. We react to the in-podcast announcement of Congress agreeing to a $900 billion stimulus package and debate to what extent the market has priced in fiscal action. The Impervious breaks down friends of the pod $CRWD, $NET, $SDC and the banks. We also reflect on $TSLA's stunning $50 billion market cap move on Friday for a company with a $50 billion market cap only a few years ago.
Chris Seifel: FCF Drivers, CANSLIM, CrowdStrike and the AI Opportunity
Chris Seifel of Seifel Capital Management comes on to talk free cash flow in high growth companies, shortcomings in using P/S multiples, the CANSLIM method, why he is wary of investing in small caps, CrowdStrike’s incredible growth runway and artificial intelligence. Chris’s depth and breadth of knowledge on cyber security and AI - as well as how these opportunities distill down to specific companies and free cash flow growth - made this interview an awesome learning opportunity for me. We go deep on Chris’s process and how he evaluates his holdings during quarterly earnings and drawdowns. Chris overviews his investment thesis for CRWD (including updates on the Preempt acquisition and new Zero Trust initiatives) and a range of opportunities in AI, including ASML, TSM and MU. I highly recommend listening to this whole interview, but Chris’s explanation of ASML and their use of photolithography blew me away. His Twitter and newsletter are incredible resources I keep returning to - check out https://twitter.com/SeifelCapital and https://seifelcapital.com .
Sunday Options (12/13/2020): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious
Are we in a bubble? The Impervious and I debate the question everyone is asking as the market again hovers around all-time highs. We talk about the IPO market and the crazy upward movements from offering prices for Airbnb, DoorDash and C3.ai. In industry specific news, we talk about the consequences of the $FEYE hack and the consequences for $CRWD, $NET and $OKTA. I make the case for two potential Stock Talking long-form recommendations that represent good value - $AZO and $FISV - and discuss what Disney's streaming announcements might mean for the stock. Sean offers two bull cases for mortgage originators ($RKT) and uranium ($UUUU, $CCJ), where prices actually are above 2018 & 19 levels. We take a look at rising expectations for inflation measured via treasuries and what that might mean for the market.