Interviews, ideas and more on stocks.
Poker, that Wayne Gretzky Quote and Movie Theaters
I explain why I think the stock market puck is going to the movie theater industry and how turbo poker tournaments are my mental model for market cycles. I review Cinemark's 2021 quarterly earnings call and why CEO Mark Zoradi's comments demonstrate that 2H 2021 and 2022 are going to be an amazing time for the box office.
- The Biggest Bluff, Maria Konnikova https://www.amazon.com/dp/B082ZQYGSL/
- Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions-ebook/dp/B074DG9LQF
Why Apple's Buyback Strategy Makes Sense
I discuss why I'm a big fan of Apple's buyback strategy and think buybacks are a better use of capital than acquisitions, any capex they could do, debt paydown, keeping the cash or raising the dividend. Based on the company's capital allocation strategy and earnings growth, Apple still is a great buy and one of my top holdings.
Some links I mention in the show:
- Berkshire 2020 letter - https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2020ltr.pdf
- Blog post on capital light compounders by Connor Leonard (thank you Diligent Dollar for recommending) - https://sabercapitalmgt.com/reinvestment-moat-follow-up-capital-light-compounders/
Sunday Options (4/25/2021): Hanging in the Pit with The Impervious
The Impervious returns to swap takes on gold + gold miners, Tesla + FAANG upcoming earnings, inflation v. deflation, the crypto lending market and QQQ's year of outperformance versus Berkshire Hathaway.
Diligent Dollar Part III: Good Companies, Bad Balance Sheets
Diligent Dollar is back to explain how he finds opportunities in levered companies that scare away most equity investors. Diligent talks through several examples including Platform Specialty Products (now Element Solutions) to highlight scenarios where debt to EBITDA multiples don't tell the whole story. We discuss Diligent's Civeo ($CVEO) thesis (lodging and hospitality for mining) and dive into the company's de-leveraging story, potential to produce a 25%+ FCF yield and why CVEO could do well independent of commodity price movement. Diligent shares his experience trying to acquire a marina, his thoughts on the structural disadvantages of REITs, tailwinds for manufactured housing (Cavco - $CVCO, Skyline - $SKY) despite NIMBY concerns and more. I really enjoyed this conversation and highly recommend subscribing to the Diligent Dollar blog (https://diligent-dollar.com).
Phil Andrews: The Role of Cathie's Ark in the ARK Investing Community
Phil Andrews of Cathie's Ark returns for an awesome discussion on ARK and how the Cathie's Ark website and trading floor provide valuable data and commentary to the ARK community. Phil responds to the ARK bears and debunks some popular narratives on ARK’s exposure to a sell-off triggered by illiquidity. We discuss the best ARK portfolio holdings to buy during drawdowns and why Phil believes $ARKG is the ETF most well situated to thrive as ARK AUM grows. I ask Phil about the bull case for $TDOC, $BLI and a number of other names. Phil reviews new and upcoming features for the Cathie's Ark website (filters, timelines and plans for upcoming FDA release data). I get Phil’s reactions to ARK’s new positions in $DKNG and $TWTR. We close with some questions from Twitter and Cathie’s Ark’s Trading Floor, including Phil’s takes on $NNDM, $BNGO, $PACB and dollar-cost averaging.
Cathie's Ark (https://cathiesark.com/) has been an indispensable resource for me as an investor in $ARKK and I highly recommend checking out the website, joining the Trading Floor community and signing up for email notifications (https://cathiesark.com/daily-trade-email).
President's Day Market Overview with The Impervious
The Impervious and I come together to talk about the market’s new all-time highs and the crush in implied volatility. For once, we both agree energy is well positioned to benefit from technical (potential short squeeze, high amount of options traded) and fundamental (supply constrained, demand growing) factors. Sean talks about opportunities in uranium, implied volatility, gold miners and more. I discuss recent changes in my own portfolio where the theme was sell low quality businesses and buy more of high quality businesses.