STRAT

Mutual Broadcasting System LLC
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STRAT – Strategic Risk Assessment Talk, is a forum with a preparedness mindset. Mitigating risks, creating systems of prevention and recovery to deal with potential threats, and understanding the objectives of a Business Continuity Plan. This is the podcast for leaders who are committed to being prepared. The program is hosted by retired Marine Corps intelligence officer and strategic risk assessment professional Hal Kempfer and investment banker Mark Mansfield.

  1. STRAT | 20 FEB 2026 | STRIKING IRAN 2.0

    قبل يومين

    STRAT | 20 FEB 2026 | STRIKING IRAN 2.0

    In this episode of STRAT with Hal Kempfer, we examine the growing likelihood of direct U.S. military action against Iran and what such a move would legally and strategically mean. The discussion explains why air or missile strikes would constitute an act of war under international law and reviews the historical context driving current tensions. We analyze the significant U.S. force buildup across the Middle East, including carrier strike groups, stealth aircraft, and AWACS deployments, and what these indicators suggest about operational intent. The episode also explores the strategic complications surrounding basing rights, particularly the role of Diego Garcia and allied political constraints. Finally, we assess Iran’s retaliatory capabilities, the risks of escalation, and the broader geopolitical consequences for Russia, China, and regional proxy networks. The central question: is striking Iran a necessary strategic move—or a high-risk gamble with global implications? Takeaways: U.S. strikes on Iran would legally constitute an act of warMajor U.S. force buildup signals serious operational preparationCarrier groups and stealth assets indicate potential escalationDiego Garcia access could complicate strike planningIran retains significant retaliatory capabilities across the regionProxy networks raise the risk of a wider regional conflictFailure to act carries its own long-term strategic risksPreventing Iranian nuclear capability remains a central concern #STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #USIranTensions #MiddleEastSecurity #Geopolitics #MilitaryStrategy #NationalSecurity #IranNuclearThreat #GlobalRisk #DefenseAnalysis #CarrierStrikeGroup #B2Bomber #AWACS #ProxyWarfare #HormuzStrait #StrategicForces #WorldAffairs #SecurityBrief

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  2. STRAT | 12 FEB 26 | How Oil Prices Are Reshaping Global Power Politics

    ١٣ فبراير

    STRAT | 12 FEB 26 | How Oil Prices Are Reshaping Global Power Politics

    Global oil markets are no longer just about supply and demand—they are reshaping geopolitics in real time. In this episode of the STRAT podcast, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer breaks down how oil pricing and access are being used as strategic tools with far-reaching consequences. From pressure on Russia’s war economy to Iran’s vulnerability around the Strait of Hormuz, the ripple effects are global. The discussion explores how sanctions, tariffs, tanker seizures, and discounted crude are squeezing Russia’s revenues, pushing Cuba toward a full-blown energy crisis, and placing China in an increasingly precarious position due to its dependence on cheap oil from sanctioned states. Kempfer also explains key oil benchmarks like Brent and WTI, the importance of U.S. shale production, and why today’s environment differs fundamentally from past oil shocks. The result is a sober look at how energy strategy is quietly reshaping alliances, economies, and global stability. Takeaways: Oil prices are being actively shaped by U.S.-led strategyBrent and WTI benchmarks reveal critical geopolitical signalsRussia’s oil revenues are collapsing under sanctions pressureTanker seizures are disrupting sanctioned oil supply chainsThe Strait of Hormuz remains a major global choke pointCuba faces an unprecedented fuel collapse and instabilityChina’s reliance on discounted crude is becoming a liabilityEnergy pressure may accelerate regime change scenarios #STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #GlobalEnergy #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity #RussiaUkraine #IranOil #ChinaEnergy #CubaCrisis #SanctionsPolicy #OilPrices #StrategicCompetition #NationalSecurity #EconomicWarfare #EnergyGeopolitics #GlobalStability #RiskAssessment

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  3. STRAT | 02 FEB 2026 | What Does Regime Change In Iran Mean?

    ٢ فبراير

    STRAT | 02 FEB 2026 | What Does Regime Change In Iran Mean?

    What would regime change in Iran actually look like—and what would it mean for the United States, Europe, and global stability? In this episode of STRAT with Hal Kempfer, we examine why many analysts believe the Islamic Republic is facing its most precarious moment since 1979. From reformist calls for constitutional change and unprecedented criticism in state-controlled media to debates over exiled versus domestic leadership, the cracks are becoming harder to ignore. We explore the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a dominant political and economic force, the risks of military escalation, and how foreign intervention could backfire by strengthening regime narratives. The discussion also addresses succession scenarios, the dangers of fragmentation or civil war, and why the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical pressure point for the global economy. Regime change, as this episode makes clear, is rarely clean or predictable—and what follows may be just as consequential as the fall itself. Takeaways: Iran faces its most unstable moment since the 1979 revolutionReformist figures are openly calling for political transitionState-controlled media criticism signals internal regime fracturesNo clear, unified leadership has emerged from the protest movementThe IRGC has evolved into Iran’s most powerful political actorMilitary strikes could unintentionally strengthen regime legitimacyControl of the Strait of Hormuz remains a global economic riskRegime collapse could lead to fragmentation or prolonged civil conflict #STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #IranRegimeChange #IranProtests #MiddleEastSecurity #IRGC #GeopoliticalRisk #USForeignPolicy #IsraelIran #GlobalOilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #PoliticalTransitions #NationalSecurity #IntelligenceAnalysis #AuthoritarianCollapse #RegionalStability #StrategicForecasting #GlobalSecurity

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  4. STRAT | 26 JAN 26 | Three Fronts of Conflict Shaping America’s Strategic Future

    ٢٦ يناير

    STRAT | 26 JAN 26 | Three Fronts of Conflict Shaping America’s Strategic Future

    From America’s heartland to the Pacific coast and the Middle East, this episode of STRAT examines three arenas where pressure is building—and consequences may be closer than many realize. Retired Marine Intelligence Officer Hal Kempfer begins in Minnesota, where aggressive federal immigration enforcement, violent street protests, and political resistance raise serious constitutional and legal questions, including the potential invocation of the Insurrection Act. The focus then shifts to California, where alleged large-scale fraud, sanctuary policies, and long-standing legal barriers to administering federal funds could place the state on a path toward fiscal insolvency and a showdown with Washington. Finally, attention turns to Iran, where reports of mass killings of protesters, societal collapse, and the movement of major U.S. naval assets raise the possibility of imminent military action. Together, these cases reveal how domestic unrest, financial integrity, and foreign conflict are increasingly interconnected—and why strategic risk is accelerating across the spectrum. Takeaways: Immigration enforcement is a core federal authority, not a novel policyMinnesota’s resistance mirrors past insurrection-era precedentsFederal agents are trained, but not optimized for mass civil unrestThe Insurrection Act remains a real, actionable optionFraud allegations may drive federal pressure on multiple statesCalifornia’s reliance on federal funding creates strategic vulnerabilityLongstanding legal rulings could jeopardize trillions in federal programsIran’s internal collapse may trigger rapid external military escalation #STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #ImmigrationEnforcement #InsurrectionAct #FederalAuthority #CivilUnrest #NationalSecurity #StateDefiance #CaliforniaCrisis #GovernmentFraud #FederalFunding #IranProtests #MiddleEastConflict #USMilitary #ConstitutionalLaw #Geopolitics #StrategicForecast #RiskAssessment

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  5. STRAT | 19 JAN 26 | Minneapolis, ICE, and a Nation on Edge

    ١٩ يناير

    STRAT | 19 JAN 26 | Minneapolis, ICE, and a Nation on Edge

    Protests and federal operations collide in Minneapolis after a fatal encounter between an ICE agent and a local resident. This episode of STRAT with retired Marine Intelligence Officer Hal Kempfer examines the surge of federal officers, the Minnesota National Guard’s mobilization, and warnings of possible troop deployments. We explore Governor and mayoral responses, crowd tensions, and how state and federal authority can clash in moments of crisis. STRAT’s insight frames the debate around immigration enforcement, public safety, and civil liberties. The show breaks down the Justice Department’s decision not to open a civil rights investigation and the DOJ resignations that followed. Listeners will hear historical comparisons to past uses of the Insurrection Act and what it could mean if invoked again. From law enforcement tactics to constitutional authority, this episode delivers context, analysis, and strategic perspective on one of the volatile stories in America today. Takeaways: Federal ICE operations in Minneapolis sparked large-scale protests.Minnesota National Guard was mobilized but not deployed to streets.Federal troops may be staged if unrest escalates further.Insurrection Act could allow military law enforcement roles.Local leaders criticize federal presence as an “occupying force.”DOJ declined a civil rights probe into a fatal ICE shooting.Multiple federal prosecutors resigned in protest. #STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #ICE #Minneapolis #Protests #NationalGuard #InsurrectionAct #Immigration #Federalism #CivilUnrest #LawEnforcement #DOJ #CivilRights #CrowdControl #NationalSecurity #BorderPolicy #FederalTroops #PublicSafety

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  6. STRAT | 14 Jan 26 | Iran on the Brink: Protests, Power, Global Shockwaves

    ١٤ يناير

    STRAT | 14 Jan 26 | Iran on the Brink: Protests, Power, Global Shockwaves

    This STRAT episode examines a rapidly escalating crisis in Iran and why it matters far beyond the Middle East. With protests spreading across more than 100 cities, a collapsing currency, and brutal crackdowns by the regime, Iran appears to be approaching a historic breaking point. The discussion with retired Marine Intelligence Officer Hal Kempfer explores how economic failure, mass arrests, and shocking levels of violence have shattered the long-standing social contract between the Iranian people and their rulers. The episode also looks at how recent military confrontations with Israel exposed major weaknesses inside Iran, fueling public anger and undermining regime legitimacy. Attention then turns to possible U.S. responses, the risks of military action, and the strategic dangers of retaliation across the Persian Gulf. Finally, the conversation explains why a potential regime collapse could reshape global energy markets, weaken Russia and China, and alter the world’s security balance—possibly becoming one of the most consequential geopolitical events of this century. Takeaways: Iran is facing its largest and deadliest protest movement ever.Currency collapse and economic shutdown triggered mass unrest.Israeli strikes exposed regime vulnerability and intelligence failures.The government responded with mass arrests and lethal force.Internet blackouts failed to fully hide the violence.U.S. action could help—or unintentionally strengthen the regime.Iranian retaliation would threaten U.S. and Gulf allies.Regime collapse could reshape global energy and power politics. #STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #IranCrisis #MiddleEastConflict #GlobalSecurity #EnergyPolitics #RegimeChange #Geopolitics #ProtestMovement #USForeignPolicy #ChinaEnergy #RussiaOil #PersianGulf #MilitaryStrategy #WorldAffairs #RiskAssessment #InternationalRelations #SecurityStudies

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  7. STRAT | 06 January 2026 | Night Raid Reshapes Venezuela and Global Power Dynamics

    ٦ يناير

    STRAT | 06 January 2026 | Night Raid Reshapes Venezuela and Global Power Dynamics

    In this episode, retired Marine intelligence officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer analyzes the stunning overnight U.S. operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The mission—months in planning and executed with overwhelming air, cyber, space, and intelligence coordination—has sent shockwaves through Latin America and beyond. Kempfer breaks down what Operation Absolute Resolve reveals about modern U.S. military reach, strategic messaging, and escalation control. He explores the legal and moral implications of regime decapitation, the risks of attempting to “run” Venezuela, and the challenges posed by militias, rival governments, and global power competition. The conversation examines international reactions, the emergence of Delcy Rodríguez as acting president, and what this upheaval could mean for oil markets, refugees, Cuba, and regional stability. Finally, Kempfer assesses where this crisis may lead—and what Washington can realistically achieve next. Takeaways: The Maduro capture showcased integrated U.S. military, cyber, and intelligence powerOperation Absolute Resolve was designed for speed, shock, and strategic surpriseRemoving a regime is far easier than governing a fractured nation afterwardVenezuela’s military and militias pose major stabilization challengesGlobal reactions reveal shifting alliances and realpolitik calculationsOil access and sanctions remain central U.S. leverage pointsLegal justifications matter less than strategic consequencesThe crisis could trigger refugees, civil conflict, or regional escalation #STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #VenezuelaCrisis #MaduroCaptured #OperationAbsoluteResolve #USMilitary #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #LatinAmerica #GlobalStability #EnergySecurity #RegimeChange #ForeignPolicy #IntelligenceAnalysis #TrumpDoctrine #CubaCrisis #StrategicStudies #WorldAffairs

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  8. STRAT | Ukraine Peace Proposals, Power Politics, and Global Strategic Fallout

    ٣٠‏/١٢‏/٢٠٢٥

    STRAT | Ukraine Peace Proposals, Power Politics, and Global Strategic Fallout

    In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer breaks down the competing peace proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine and explains why each carries major strategic risks. The discussion examines a U.S.-backed 28-point plan that largely accommodates Russian territorial demands, Ukraine’s alternative 20-point framework emphasizing demilitarized zones and reconstruction, and Europe’s growing role as Washington signals limits to its long-term involvement. Beyond the battlefield, the episode explores Russia’s mounting economic strain, its struggle to sustain a war economy, and Ukraine’s increasingly effective deep-strike campaign against Russian infrastructure. The conversation widens to assess ripple effects across Europe and Asia, where allies like Japan and South Korea are rethinking defense self-reliance amid uncertainty over U.S. commitments. Ultimately, the episode asks whether peace is realistic. Takeaways: Proposed peace plans risk legitimizing territorial conquestUkraine rejects any deal surrendering sovereign landDemilitarized zones would require risky international enforcementEurope is accelerating defense independence from the U.S.Russian military faces equipment shortages and manpower strainUkrainian deep strikes are degrading Russia’s war economyGlobal allies are reassessing reliance on U.S. security guarantees #STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #Geopolitics #GlobalSecurity #DefensePolicy #PeaceNegotiations #NATOSecurity #EuropeanDefense #WarEconomy #MilitaryIntelligence #InternationalRelations #AsiaPacificSecurity #StrategicStudies #RiskAssessment #ForeignPolicy #ModernWarfare

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STRAT – Strategic Risk Assessment Talk, is a forum with a preparedness mindset. Mitigating risks, creating systems of prevention and recovery to deal with potential threats, and understanding the objectives of a Business Continuity Plan. This is the podcast for leaders who are committed to being prepared. The program is hosted by retired Marine Corps intelligence officer and strategic risk assessment professional Hal Kempfer and investment banker Mark Mansfield.

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    Mutual Broadcasting System LLC
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    STRAT

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