Superposed

Aidan Lewis
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Every decision exists in superposition — multiple outcomes, all possible, until you choose. But how do you know which decision to make? Superposed applies quantum cognition — an emerging framework that uses quantum mechanics principles to explain how humans make decisions — to history's most consequential choices. Learn from this deeper perspective on how political, business, and scientific leaders have made the decisions that effect our everyday lives to gain a sharper mental model for the decisions you face today.

  1. قبل يوم واحد

    E12: Is Pain Justified by Hope? – SBF’s $11B Fraud Seen Through Quantum Cognition

    He ran a $32 billion crypto exchange, lived by a philosophy built to justify getting rich in the name of doing good, and in ten days watched it collapse into bankruptcy after stealing $11 billion in customer funds. Sam Bankman-Fried didn't stumble into fraud – he reasoned his way into it. The question isn't whether he knew it was illegal. He did. The question is what shifted the odds so far in favor of crime that it felt, to him, like the only path forward. ================================= Links: 📖Substack: https://superposeddecisions.substack.com/  📺YouTube: @Superposed_Decisions 🤝LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidan-m-lewis/  ================================= Bankman-Fried left Jane Street in 2017 to start Alameda Research, then launched FTX in 2019 after Alameda posted heavy losses – using FTX customer deposits to quietly cover the shortfall. By November 2022, a whistleblower and some fast reporting exposed the hole: billions siphoned to plug Alameda's deficit, fund investments, and make undisclosed political donations, including reported contributions to Chinese officials. SBF was convicted on seven counts of fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy, and sentenced to 25 years. Underneath the mechanics of the collapse sat a philosophy – effective altruism, or "earning to give" – that gave Bankman-Fried a ready-made justification: amass enough wealth and power now, and the good you do later outweighs the harm along the way. ================================= We run SBF's decision through the four pillars of quantum cognition. Superposition holds "commit fraud" and "don't commit fraud" as live options simultaneously, right up until a decision collapses one into reality. Interference explains why that collapse tilted toward fraud: SBF's reported social isolation, his stated desire to be "hugely, hugely politically influential," and a wide gap between his analytical reasoning and his emotional regulation all pushed the same direction. Contextuality shows how external pressure – Alameda's mounting losses versus the very real threat of prison – set the frame those interference effects acted within. And running through all of it is effective altruism itself: not a minor contextual detail, but the interference force strong enough to make stealing customer funds look, to SBF, like the rational move. ================================= What you'll take away: Why "earning to give" can function less as ethics and more as a permission structure for present-day harm How a wide gap between analytical reasoning and emotional regulation can skew which options even register as "on the table" Why a strong, examined moral compass – not just external consequences like legal risk – is often what keeps a decision-frame from collapsing into the worst option ================================= Primary Sources Yoder, K. J., & Decety, J. (2018). The neuroscience of morality and social decision-making. Psychology, Crime & Law, 24(3), 279–295. https://doi.org/10.1080/1068316X.2017.1414817 Kusev, P., Martin, R., van Schaik, P., & Teal, J. (2025). Moral decision-making "on the fly." Psychological Research, 89(3), 98. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00426-025-02126-z Dr. Fiery Cushman’s Lab  ================================= Secondary Sources Psychology of SBF's public apology SBF's flawed decision-making philosophy Deep behavioral lessons from SBF case SBF and effective altruism origins Michael Lewis's portrayal of SBF's character Lewis on SBF vs. Madoff Judge Kaplan's assessment of SBF testimony Alameda Research founding and history FTX funding rounds and valuations FTX Alameda $65 billion backdoor Complete timeline of FTX collapse from court testimony Trial of Sam Bankman-Fried – case record SBF sentencing, Kaplan's political-ambition remarks DOJ press release – SBF sentencing

  2. ٤ أغسطس

    E11: Stocks, Quantum Cognition, & the Great Crash of 1929

    Picture this: the Dow has just fallen 49% in two weeks, three trading days now carry the name "Black" like scars, and a fortune built on borrowed money has evaporated overnight. By the summer of 1932, the Dow sat at 41 – 89% below its 1929 peak. Every dollar in a margin account isn't just gone; it's owed back, with interest. This is the story of how millions of ordinary investors, convinced the market would rise "permanently," built and then detonated the greatest wealth-destruction event in American history – and how the exact same psychological wiring is still firing every time you open a trading app today. Between 1921 and 1929, the Dow climbed an incredible 504%, fueled by unregulated margin trading that let everyday Americans buy stocks the way they'd put a house on a credit card. When the market turned in late October 1929, it didn't correct – it collapsed, wiping out nearly half its value in two weeks across what became known as Black Thursday, Black Monday, and Black Tuesday. Margin debtors who couldn't cover their loans cracked an already fragile banking system; panicked depositors then stormed their local banks in four separate waves through the early 1930s, closing 9,000 banks in the process. Two mass decisions – the crash itself and the runs that followed – helped bring the U.S. economy to its knees, and left a psychological blueprint that resurfaces in the 2020 COVID crash, the 2022 crypto collapse, and the 2025 tariff sell-off. This episode runs the crash through Superposed's four-part lens of quantum cognition. The superposition is the deceptively simple menu every investor from 1929 to today actually faces: buy, hold, or sell. Interference comes from Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky's Prospect Theory – reference points, loss aversion, diminishing sensitivity, and probability weighting all distort that menu before logic ever gets a vote. Contextuality shows how news, earnings, and macro shocks – a tariff announcement, a pandemic, a bank failure – reframe the exact same asset from "buy" to "sell" almost overnight. ================================= Links: 📖Substack: https://superposeddecisions.substack.com/  📺YouTube: @Superposed_Decisions 🤝LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidan-m-lewis/ ================================= What you'll take away: Why the "buy, hold, or sell" decision is never really about the stock – it's about which reference point your brain locked onto, and when. How loss aversion, the same force behind the 1929 margin wipeout, explains modern crashes in GameStop, bitcoin, and the 2025 tariff sell-off. A concrete way to notice when herd behavior, not information, is driving your next trade. ================================= Information in this episode does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. Aidan Lewis is not a financial professional. Investing and trading in the stock market carries inherent risk that needs to be understood by the investor. Invest at your own risk.  ================================= Primary Sources Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185 Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.219228 Kumar, A. (2008). Who Gambles in the Stock Market? Journal of Finance. https://ssrn.com/abstract=686022 Barberis, N., & Thaler, R. (2002). A Survey of Behavioral Finance. NBER Working Paper 9222. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9222 Secondary Sources Fed history: 1929 crash essay Fisher's "permanently high plateau" speech Britannica: causes of the Depression 1920s margin buying, laissez-faire policy Herding behavior review, 1929 crash Britannica: banking panics 1930-33 Bank failures, money supply contraction 1929-33 Smoot-Hawley timeline, banking panics by year

  3. ٢٨ يوليو

    E10: How JFK Leveraged Social Perception to stop the Cuban Missile Crisis

    October 1962. Nine men in a windowless room have mere days to stop a nuclear war neither side actually wants – but neither side can be seen to lose. Two Soviet letters arrive within a day of each other, one conciliatory, one a hardline ultimatum. And with a U.S. pilot being shot dead over Cuba, the clock is now measured in hours, not days. What President Kennedy and his advisors chose to do next reshaped how the U.S. and USSR would communicate for the rest of the Cold War – and almost nobody knew the real deal for decades. ExComm received two Soviet demands to end the standoff – a conciliatory private letter on Friday and a more a public, hardline demand was broadcasted from Radio Moscow on Black Saturday – coinciding with Major Rudolf Anderson's U-2 being shot down over Cuban airspace. Through a quantum cognition lens, four concepts explain how ExComm found a way out. Superposition reframed the decision from a binary blockade-or-invade choice into a richer set of hidden options for which Soviet letter to answer, and how. Interference came from the tension between projecting strength and avoiding cornering the soviets into a worse response – the same interference pattern shaping today's geopolitics. Contextuality mattered because the Bay of Pigs failure, looming midterm elections, and the broader Cold War all pulled the decision in different directions at once. And non-commutative effects – the order in which the two letters and the shootdown arrived – changed how ExComm interpreted Soviet intent. Rather than picking one path, Kennedy combined them: publicly honoring the conciliatory letter, privately trading Turkey-based missiles for Cuba's, giving both superpowers a win at home. ================================= What you'll take away: Why treating a negotiation as more than two options can reveal a de-escalating third path neither side saw at first How the order in which information arrives can change what a decision seems to demand, even when the facts themselves don't change Why visible confidence in a decision shapes whether others resist it or fall in line behind it ================================= Primary Sources: Mojzisch, A., & Krug, K. (2008). Cells, circuits, and choices: social influences on perceptual decision making. Cognitive, Affective & Behavioral Neuroscience, 8(4), 498–508. https://doi.org/10.3758/CABN.8.4.498 Saha Roy, T., Giri, B., Saha Chowdhury, A., Mazumder, S., & Das, K. (2020). How our perception and confidence are altered using decision cues. Frontiers in Neuroscience, 13, 1371. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2019.01371 Thompson, L., & Hastie, R. (1990). Social perception in negotiation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 47(1), 98–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(90)90048-E Secondary Sources: Cuban missile crisis decision-making lessons Cuban missile crisis irrational factors historiography Khrushchev emotional decision-making Oxford Essence of Decision, Graham Allison Nuclear deterrence anomaly scholars lessons Mirroring Risk, Renshon missile estimation Wise leadership Cuban missile crisis case study JFK groupthink origin, Bay of Pigs JFK White House tape recordings Robert Kennedy Cuban missile crisis reinterpretation JFK Library Cuban missile crisis chronology JFK Library October 27 day-by-day State Department Cuban missile crisis milestones Jupiter missiles sealing the deal, Wilson Center How Anderson's death may have prevented nuclear war Thirteen Days on quarantine decision, On The Issues Blockade decision as consequence analysis Kennedy's September 1962 political warning, NSA 1962 October surprise midterm election Episode Tags / Keywords Cuban Missile Crisis, JFK, ExComm, Black Saturday, quantum cognition, decision science, Cold War, Nikita Khrushchev, nuclear deterrence, groupthink, negotiation theory, behavioral psychology, cognitive bias, foreign policy decision-making, Bay of Pigs, social perception

  4. ٢١ يوليو

    E9: FIFA's Collapse – How Scandal Delivered the 2026 World Cup

    A perfect case study for decision in uncertainty, and decisions by default. In 2016, Gianni Infantino inherited the presidency of FIFA after watching 41 colleagues get hauled away by Swiss and U.S. authorities in a $150 million bribery scandal. Two years later, his organization had to hand the biggest prize in sports – hosting rights to the 2026 World Cup – to the only nation left in the superposition once the old context had vanished with the police sirens. North America provided the certainty in the uncertain environment FIFA found themselves. From 1990 to 2015, FIFA executives ran a 24-year racket, taking bribes tied to media rights, sponsorships, and World Cup hosting votes going back to France's 1998 win. The scheme unraveled when Chuck Blazer, a FIFA executive committee member facing over a decade of unreported income, agreed to wear an FBI wire instead of prison. His evidence led to the arrest of seven FIFA officials in Zurich in May 2015 – days before Sepp Blatter's re-election bid – and eventually 41 arrests and 14 convictions for racketeering, wire fraud, and money laundering. Blatter resigned days after winning re-election; his chosen successor, Michel Platini, was banned over a mysterious $2 million "delayed consultation fee." That left the field open for Gianni Infantino, who expanded the World Cup to 48 teams and opened the hosting vote to FIFA's full 203-member congress – setting up the exact contextual conditions that handed North America the 2026 bid over Morocco. Run through the quantum cognition framework, this decision is a clean case study in contextuality. The superposition started with two bids – North America and Morocco. Interference came from a congress reeling after watching 41 colleagues arrested, desperate to look clean. But contextuality did the heavy lifting: a scandal exposed by the U.S. itself, a newly expanded 48-team format requiring infrastructure only one bidder actually had, and a congress with every incentive to align with the nation holding leverage over the rest of them. Layer in non-commutative effects – the order these shocks hit FIFA in – and the superposition doesn't just narrow, it collapses to one outcome before the vote is even called. ================================= What you'll take away: Why "decisions by default" emerge when uncertainty spikes – and how certainty-seeking, not merit, decided the 2026 host How contextual collapse works at scale, across a 203-member congressional vote, the same way it works in a single choice Why breaking an old context is terrifying but is also the moment the most options ever enter your own superposition ================================= Primary Sources: Platt, M. L., & Huettel, S. A. (2008). Risky business: the neuroeconomics of decision making under uncertainty. Nature neuroscience, 11(4), 398–403. https://doi.org/10.1038/nn2062  Preuschoff, K., Mohr, P. N., & Hsu, M. (2013). Decision making under uncertainty. Frontiers in neuroscience, 7, 218. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2013.00218  Yu, J., Liu, X., Yu, J. et al. Neural investigation of default effects on decision-making under uncertainty. Sci Rep 16, 10233 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-41206-x  Secondary Sources: List of FIFA World Cup hosts2026 FIFA World Cup overview2026 FIFA World Cup bidding processFIFA World Cup 2026 official site2026 FIFA World Cup bids WikipediaAl Jazeera: why three co-hosts2015 FIFA corruption caseFIFA bidding postponement amid scandal2015 FIFA corruption scandal - BritannicaInfantino's FIFA: ten years of power and politicsForbes – World Cup Revenue Stats2022 World Cup EngagementEpisode Tags / Keywords FIFA corruption scandal, Sepp Blatter, Gianni Infantino, Chuck Blazer, 2026 World Cup, quantum cognition, decision science, contextuality, decision making under uncertainty, behavioral psychology, cognitive bias, North America World Cup bid, FIFA scandal explained, sports corruption, decisions by default, superposition

  5. ١٤ يوليو

    E8: Deep Dive Into Quantum Cognition – The Irrational Physics of How You Think

    Linda is 31, outspoken, and marched against nuclear weapons in college. Ask people whether she's more likely to be a bank teller, or a bank teller AND a feminist, and almost everyone picks the second option – a statistical impossibility. Classical models of the mind call this an error. Quantum cognition calls it a clue. Today we go deep into the framework that treats the irrational parts of human decision-making not as glitches, but as evidence that the mind runs on the same probabilistic logic as subatomic particles. This isn't a metaphor – it's a modeling framework built directly from the mathematics of quantum mechanics. We trace why classical, Bayesian-based models of cognition – heuristics, biases, the whole toolkit – started running into walls, and how a quantum approach fills the gaps: explaining the Linda problem, the prisoner's dilemma, and decades of decisions that don't follow the rules of classical probability. We break down three of quantum cognition's four core pillars. Superposition, where a mind holds multiple, competing beliefs at once as a single combined state – not yet resolved into a decision. Interference, where those competing beliefs collide, sometimes amplifying each other (constructive interference) and sometimes canceling each other out (destructive interference), reshaping the outcome before a choice is even made. And contextuality, where the surrounding frame of a decision changes both what's being considered and how those competing beliefs interact. We close on the frontier concepts researchers are still working out: entanglement, order effects, measurement effects, and the speculative case for cognitive tunneling. ================================= What you'll take away: - Why the Linda problem and the prisoner's dilemma reveal a consistent, non-random pattern of "irrationality" that classical probability can't account for - How superposition and interference mechanistically explain why the order and framing of information changes the decision itself, not just how it's perceived - Why contextuality means there's no such thing as a decision made in a vacuum – the frame is part of the math ================================= Primary Sources: Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501  Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90(4), 293–315. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.90.4.29  Cervantes, V. H., & Dzhafarov, E. N. (2018). Snow Queen is evil and beautiful: Experimental evidence for probabilistic contextuality in human choices. Decision, 5(3), 193–204. https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000095   Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E. M., Franco, R., & Trueblood, J. S. (2011). A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors. Psychological Review, 118(2), 193–218. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0022542 McKenzie, C.R.M., Lee, S.M. and Chen, K.K. (2002), When negative evidence increases confidence: change in belief after hearing two sides of a dispute. J. Behav. Decis. Making, 15: 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.400  Bergus, G. R., Levin, I. P., & Elstein, A. S. (2002). Presenting risks and benefits to patients. Journal of general internal medicine, 17(8), 612–617. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1525-1497.2002.11001.x  Moore, D. W. (2002). Measuring new types of question-order effects: Additive and subtractive. Public Opinion Quarterly, 66(1), 80–91. https://doi.org/10.1086/338631 ================================= Secondary Sources: Qognitive ================================= Episode Tags / Keywords: quantum cognition, decision science, cognitive bias, Linda problem, conjunction fallacy, prisoner's dilemma, disjunction effect, superposition, interference effects, contextuality, behavioral psychology, Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, Emmanuel Pothos, Jerome Busemeyer, quantum probability

  6. ٧ يوليو

    E7: Project Titan – How Apple’s Volatile Decisions Killed the iCar

    In February 2024, Apple summoned nearly 2,000 people to a 12 minute meeting to terminate Project Titan, Apple's decade-long, $10 billion attempt to build a car. No one in the room was shocked. They had lived through five leadership changes and just as many versions of what the "Apple Car" was supposed to be. The real question isn't why Apple's car failed to ship. It's why a company this good at decisions couldn't make the same one twice. Through the lens of quantum cognition, Titan's death wasn't one bad call, it was a decade of collapsing and re-expanding the same decision superposition – every leadership change re-opened the range of possible outcomes instead of narrowing it, forcing the next leader to collapse the superposition from scratch. Interference shows up on both sides of the org chart: employees who watched prior directions die grew more guarded each cycle, and leadership, watching cash burn without stabilizing, grew more uncertain, and uncertainty in business tends to get resolved with prejudice. Contextuality did the rest. Tesla's rise likely triggered Titan in 2014, and the generative AI boom of 2022-23 likely helped kill it, but the more consequential context was Titan's own track record: by 2024, five or six pivots and $10 billion in losses had shifted the probability landscape toward cancellation. That's the non-commutative effect worth sitting with: committing to any single version of this decision, in order, could have produced a different car, or no car, but almost certainly not this particular decade of drift. What you'll take away: Why repeated collapsing and re-expanding of the same decision burns more resources than picking the "wrong" option and sticking with it How each pivot doesn't just cost money, it also degrades the context the next decision gets made in, making cancellation more likely with every cycle Why consistency of direction, not the boldness of the vision itself, is often the actual variable separating moonshots that ship from moonshots that don't ================================= Primary Sources: Busemeyer, J. R., & Wang, Z. (2015). What is quantum cognition, and how is it applied to psychology? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 163–169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568663 Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501 Busemeyer, J. R., Wang, Z., & Townsend, J. T. (2006). Quantum dynamics of human decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(3), 220–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2006.01.003 Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). A quantum probability explanation for violations of 'rational' decision theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1665), 2171–2178. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0121 ================================= Secondary Sources:  Bloomberg cancellation announcement The Verge same-day break NYT postmortem feature Bloomberg cost deep-dive Wikipedia project overview TechCrunch project timeline MacRumors comprehensive roundup AppleInsider cancellation report Patently Apple cancellation recap 9to5Mac chip details TechSpot chip details Motor1 cost estimate Benzinga annual spend Hypebeast cancellation summary MacRumors permit cancellation Episode Tags / Keywords Project Titan, Apple Car, Tim Cook, Steve Zadesky, quantum cognition, superposition, interference, contextuality, non-commutative effects, decision science, behavioral economics, cognitive bias, corporate strategy, leadership turnover, autonomous vehicles, Tesla

  7. ٣٠ يونيو

    E6: Infernal Inertia – Was Dropping the Bomb Really Truman's Decision?

    In August 1945, Harry Truman authorized the single most destructive act in the history of warfare – two atomic bombs that killed an estimated 214,000 people. He had been president for fewer than four months. He hadn't even known the Manhattan Project existed until 12 days after taking office. This episode asks the question that decision science was built to answer: was this Truman's decision, or had the outcome already been determined before he ever walked into the Oval Office? Truman inherited a war that had already consumed 400,000 American lives. The Japanese military was distributing bamboo spears to civilians. A land invasion was projected to cost between 250,000 and 1,000,000 Allied casualties. And at every turn, advisors warned Truman against appearing weak. Using the four core concepts of quantum cognition – superposition, interference, contextuality, and non-commutative effects – we map the full decision landscape Truman faced, the internal conflict that may have vexed his choices, and the external pressures that railroaded him to make one of humanity's greatest judgments. What you'll take away from this episode: - Why a decision made under institutional momentum can feel like a free choice even when the realistic option set has already been narrowed to one - How non-commutative effects explain why Truman could not have reversed the bomb decision even if he had wanted to – the sequence of prior commitments had made alternatives politically nonviable - Why "I am here to make decisions" is sometimes the statement of a person exercising agency, and sometimes the statement of a person ratifying a process they didn't design ================================= Primary Sources: Busemeyer, J. R., & Wang, Z. (2015). What is quantum cognition, and how is it applied to psychology? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 163–169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568663 Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501 Busemeyer, J. R., Wang, Z., & Townsend, J. T. (2006). Quantum dynamics of human decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(3), 220–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2006.01.003 Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). A quantum probability explanation for violations of 'rational' decision theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1665), 2171–2178. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0121 ================================= Secondary Sources: Heritage Foundation: bomb averted larger tragedies OSTI: Manhattan Project in retrospect National Archives atomic bomb exhibit ICAN Hiroshima Nagasaki casualties Truman Library biographical sketch Britannica: Truman's decision to use the bomb Bulletin: counting the dead at Hiroshima Miller Center: Truman life in brief Dannen.com: Truman diary and papers Britannica: atomic bombings overview U.S. Naval History: Operation Downfall Japan Focus: Hasegawa on Soviet entry and surrender Truman Library: atomic bomb options 1945 History Learning Site: Operation Downfall casualties History Skills: Operation Downfall planning Sherwin: atomic bomb and Cold War origins Atomic Heritage Foundation: Interim Committee report Atomic Heritage Foundation: the Interim Committee MIT: Truman Potsdam diary primary source Nuclear Museum: Potsdam atomic diplomacy Bulletin: psychology of nuclear restraint National WWII Museum: Japan's surrender part I Veterans Breakfast Club: road to V-J Day Nuclear Secrecy blog: Japanese surrender before Hiroshima ================================= Episode Tags / Keywords: Harry Truman atomic bomb decision, Hiroshima Nagasaki 1945, Manhattan Project, quantum cognition, decision science, Operation Downfall, World War II Pacific theater, behavioral psychology, cognitive bias, institutional momentum, Interim Committee, James Byrnes, FDR legacy, WWII decision making podcast, nuclear history

  8. ٢٣ يونيو

    E5: The Leak That Sealed It – Dobbs and the Decision to Overturn Roe v. Wade

    In 1973, seven justices built a 50-year precedent on the right to privacy. In 2022, five justices tore it down – and a leaked memo may be the reason none of them could change their mind. This episode breaks down Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, through the lens of quantum cognition. Dobbs began as a 15-week abortion ban in Mississippi, deliberately written to be challenged. By the time it reached the Supreme Court, a Federalist Society-shaped conservative majority was already in place. But the real twist came in May 2022, when Politico published Justice Samuel Alito's draft majority opinion – the first leak of its kind in modern Supreme Court history. We look at how that leak changed the group dynamics of the decision itself. Using the four core concepts of quantum cognition – superposition, interference, contextuality, and non-commutative effects – we map the competing draft opinions on the table (Roberts's narrow ruling, the conservative majority's full overturn, the liberal dissent), the polarization and infighting reported inside the Court, and the unique context conservative justices used to frame Dobbs as correction rather than activism. What you'll take away from this episode: - Why group decisions can't be modeled the same way as individual choices - How a single piece of context – a leaked document – can "collapse" a group's superposed positions into a locked-in outcome - Why textualism and originalism function as a context-dependent decision frame, not a neutral default This is not a debate about abortion. It's a decision-science breakdown of how nine people, under public pressure, reached an irreversible 5-4 ruling.  =================================  Primary Sources: Busemeyer, J. R., & Wang, Z. (2015). What is quantum cognition, and how is it applied to psychology? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 163–169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568663 Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501  Busemeyer, J. R., Wang, Z., & Townsend, J. T. (2006). Quantum dynamics of human decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(3), 220–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2006.01.003 Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). A quantum probability explanation for violations of 'rational' decision theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1665), 2171–2178. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0121 =================================  Secondary Sources: Three observations on the Alito draftAlito's originalist jurisprudence analyzedSunstein on the Alito draftFederalist Society's court influenceFull Dobbs opinion text (Cornell)Dobbs opinion PDF (SCOTUS.gov)Dobbs case overview (Ballotpedia)Dobbs case overview (Constitution Center)Planned Parenthood v. Casey historyRoe v. Wade 1973 to 2022 timelineRoe v. Wade background (History.com)Why Roe was overturnedRoe v. Wade (Britannica)Roe overturned (Planned Parenthood)Majority vs. dissent schism (NPR)Mississippi 15-week test caseJudge rebukes Mississippi's strategyCourt poised to roll back rights (SCOTUSblog)Oral argument coverage (Courthouse News)SCOTUS leak investigation report (CNN)Leaked Dobbs opinion explained (Harvard)Leak investigation fails (SCOTUSblog)Politico: Dobbs draft opinion leakPolitico: Roberts and the Court ================================= Episode Tags / Keywords: Dobbs v Jackson, Roe v Wade overturned, Supreme Court decision making, quantum cognition, decision science, Federalist Society, Samuel Alito leaked opinion, SCOTUS Politico leak, group decision making, cognitive bias, behavioral psychology, constitutional law podcast, originalism textualism, judicial decision making, Mississippi abortion ban

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Every decision exists in superposition — multiple outcomes, all possible, until you choose. But how do you know which decision to make? Superposed applies quantum cognition — an emerging framework that uses quantum mechanics principles to explain how humans make decisions — to history's most consequential choices. Learn from this deeper perspective on how political, business, and scientific leaders have made the decisions that effect our everyday lives to gain a sharper mental model for the decisions you face today.

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    Aidan Lewis
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    © Aidan Lewis
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    Superposed