Telltales

by Top Mark Capital
  • 5.0 (6)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED SEMIWEEKLY

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don't mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

  1. Google's Real AI Risk Isn't Just ChatGPT

    1D AGO

    Google's Real AI Risk Isn't Just ChatGPT

    Hunt Lawrence, Mike Nicoletti, and Jason Wallace unpack why the Hormuz panic doesn’t hold, where Google’s real AI risk actually lives, and how the PBM business model is unwinding in real time. Get the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hunt’s oil base case holds at $90 (Brent $108 / WTI $104 today) against consensus $150 calls: Saudi Aramco already posted higher March cash flow routing crude to the Red Sea, ADNOC is twinning the Oman→Fujairah line, Iraq/Kuwait are moving barrels by truck-and-pipe through Syria, and Iran loses leverage over time even without a nuclear deal. * Exhibit A is straining on interest expense (10Y at 4.5% vs. the 3.5% baseline assumption); Mike’s debt/GDP-stabilization-near-100% bet leans on Claude-class AI compressing Medicare/Medicaid spend into flat-to-declining, with defense and interest as the other binding lines. * Google ran from $162 to $400 in 52 weeks: AI Overviews defused the visible ChatGPT threat, but the real risk is agentic search rewiring monetization (Exa just raised $225M at $2B+ from a16z), and Jason posits a chunk of Google’s incremental search revenue is OpenAI paying for web-index grounding. * Gemini Spark (I/O) is Google playing innovator’s-dilemma offense, a 24/7 personal agent running across Gmail/Calendar/Drive that no entrant can replicate without Google’s existing data perimeter; the Google + Meta + Amazon ad-network moat remains durable enough that OpenAI is retreating to Anthropic-style subscription revenue. * PBM pricing power is unwinding in real time: Trump Rx relaunched with Cost Plus Drug + Amazon Fulfillment backends (drugs at ~25% of copay), UNH/OptumRx moving to a transparent flat-fee model and dropping prior auth on 30% of minor procedures, CVS adding biosimilars, and Lilly’s DTC channel proving out, all setting up a healthcare-investment deep dive in two weeks. Show Notes [00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike opens the show and points listeners to this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. [00:18] Disclaimer Standard disclosure. [00:31] Exhibits A, B, C — Oil, Hormuz, and the Federal Deficit Hunt walks through how Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, Iraq, and Kuwait are routing barrels around Hormuz via Red Sea ports, the Fujairah pipeline, and Syrian truck-and-pipe corridors. Why consensus $150 oil is wrong and Hunt’s $90 base case holds. Closes on interest expense and Medicare/Medicaid as the binding lines on Exhibit A. [06:52] More than Moats: Google Hunt frames Alphabet as the latest More than Moats target after Lilly, Nvidia, Goldman, and Microsoft. Mike and Jason work through the antitrust outcome (Chrome retained, web-index data opened to competitors), AI Overviews defending low-intent queries, and the real risk: agentic search and Exa’s $225M raise. [13:04] Google I/O and Gemini Spark Jason walks through I/O announcements including the new content-credentialing system and Gemini Spark, Google’s always-on personal agent running across Gmail, Calendar, and Drive. Why no entrant can replicate this without Google’s existing data perimeter. [15:34] The Advertising Moat Hunt frames Google + Meta + Amazon as a durable ad-network oligopoly. Why OpenAI’s billion-user advertising thesis is failing and the pivot back to Anthropic-style subscription revenue. [19:53] Healthcare: PBMs, Trump Rx, and Lilly DTC Jason walks through Bill Cassidy’s primary loss, Trump Rx’s relaunch on Cost Plus Drug and Amazon Fulfillment rails, CVS adding biosimilars, OptumRx moving to a transparent flat-fee PBM model, UnitedHealth dropping prior auth on 30% of minor procedures, and Eli Lilly’s working DTC channel. [23:50] Fixing the Premium Side Hunt asks how to bring the same rationalization to monthly health insurance premiums. Mike on diagnostic-monitoring opt-in plans with discounted premiums; Hunt on quarterly rebate structures that reward healthier behavior. Why emergency care is the structural hard problem. [29:33] Healthcare Investment Ideas — Two-Week Prep Hunt commits the team to identifying three or four entities running rational healthcare models that could be good investments. Surprise topic next Wednesday; healthcare deep dive in two weeks. [30:38] Sign-Off Stay healthy, back next Wednesday. Subscribe wherever you listen, and grab the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. Cashtags $GOOGL $AMZN $AAPL $MSFT $NVDA $META $CVS $LLY $UNH $GS This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    32 min
  2. Weekend Update - W2620

    5D AGO

    Weekend Update - W2620

    The Cashflow Memo Earnings Week Is a Split Screen — Nvidia, the Big-Box Gauntlet, and the Retail Read-Across The AI trade and the tariff trade get tested on the same three days. By Friday, the market knows which side delivered. The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler. Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2621. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Opening disclaimer * 0:15 | Cold open & this week’s split screen * 0:45 | Theme — The Big-Box Gauntlet (HD, LOW, TGT, WMT) * 4:45 | Deep dive — Nvidia going into Q1 FY27 * 8:45 | Rapid-fire — EQT, UnitedHealth, Microsoft * 11:45 | Close & Consensus Watch * 12:30 | Closing disclaimer Full transcript Opening disclaimer Ava: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Cold open Ava: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk. Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack. We’re still in the early run of the show — listener feedback is shaping what we do. Ava: This week is a split screen. Nvidia prints Wednesday after the close. The big-box retailers print Tuesday through Thursday — Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, Walmart. The AI trade and the tariff trade get tested on the same three days. By Friday, the market knows which side delivered. Ava: On Wednesday’s main show, Hunt, Jason, and Mike walked through Meta as the most profitable AI application ever built — the answer to whether AI capex actually compounds back into the income statement[^ep-e2620]. This week the test moves to the picks-and-shovels side. Nvidia. And the read-across to whether the tariff regime is showing up at the cash register. Theme — The Big-Box Gauntlet Ava: On page 8 of the memo this week — Home Depot Tuesday morning[^earn-hd], Lowe’s and Target Wednesday before the open[^earn-low][^earn-tgt], Walmart Thursday[^earn-wmt]. Four big-box prints, three days, one customer. Ava: The customer is the same — middle America, mortgage-burdened, tariff-exposed. The wound isn’t. Ava: Home Depot is the only one of the four where the stock has already done the work. 25% off the 52-week high going into the print[^hd-performance-20260513]. Reports Tuesday at 9:00 AM ET, $3.42 consensus on $41.6B[^hd-earnings-20260505]. Truist cut its price target from $424 to $394 three days ago[^hd-truist-20260512]. And management already told everyone they will source no more than 10% of products from any single foreign country — that’s the tariff hedge, on the record, before the print[^hd-tariffs-20260512]. Ava: Lowe’s is the rare print where two top-tier analysts disagree on the same number. Reports Wednesday before the open. $2.96 EPS on $23B[^earn-low]. Citi upgraded to Buy on May 12, $285 target — they cited four straight quarters of positive comps[^low-citi-upgrade-20260512]. BofA downgraded to Neutral on May 5, $260 target — they cited housing turnover at multi-decade lows[^low-bofa-downgrade-20260505]. Same company. Same week. Two completely different setups. Ava: Target is the only one of the four printing into a customer base that left. Reports Wednesday before the open — same morning as Lowe’s. Consensus $1.41 on $24.5B[^tgt-earnings-20260515]. Foot traffic at Target stores is down year-over-year for 25 of the last 27 weeks since the January DEI announcement[^tgt-dei-20260515]. The boycott officially ended in March — with no new diversity commitments. And Ulta Beauty is walking out of the partnership in August after five years[^tgt-ulta-20260515]. Ava: Walmart is the only one of the four restructuring while expanding. New CEO John Furner cut 1,000 corporate roles this week[^wmt-restructuring-20260513]. Prints Thursday. $0.65 on $175B. The ad business is up 50% year-over-year and the U.S. e-commerce business posted its first profitable quarter globally[^wmt-ad-growth-20260323][^wmt-ecom-profit-20260215]. The memo can’t anchor Walmart — trailing-twelve free cash flow is negative because of capex[^memo-wmt-fcf-20260515]. Marcus stays off the name. Ava: Marcus, two of these are pricing differently than they look. The cashflow take. Marcus: Target is the wounded one in the gauntlet, and the memo isn’t pricing it as wounded yet. 24x trailing free cash flow on $3B of TTM FCF, 10-K confirmed[^memo-tgt-evfcf-20260515][^memo-tgt-fcf-20260515]. The market is pricing Target like the foot-traffic hole closes on its own — 25 of the last 27 weeks say it doesn’t[^tgt-dei-20260515]. The gross-margin guide Wednesday morning is what tells you which side is closer to right. Marcus: Home Depot is the cleanest test of the four. 24x trailing free cash flow on $16B of TTM FCF, 10-K confirmed[^memo-hd-evfcf-20260515][^memo-hd-fcf-20260515]. That’s not punitive for the share-leader of home improvement. The stock is 25% off the high — most of that move is housing turnover, not Home Depot losing share[^hd-performance-20260513]. The test Tuesday morning is whether the pro-contractor segment is actually offsetting DIY weakness[^hd-contractor-20260224], or whether management has been packaging hope as a thesis. Ava: Two prints, two questions. Whether the foot traffic comes back at Target. Whether the pro contractor is real at Home Depot. Lowe’s settles a disagreement between two analysts. And Walmart has to convince anyone watching that cutting jobs is part of the growth story, not in spite of it. Deep dive — Nvidia Ava: Nvidia. Wednesday after the close. This is the most consequential print of the year. Ava: Consensus is $1.74 EPS on $78B in revenue, plus or minus 2%[^nvda-fy27-guidance-202605][^nvda-earnings-consensus-202605][^earn-nvda]. Blackwell B200 and GB200 are sold out through mid-2026 on a backlog described as, quote, insane — 3.6 million units[^nvda-blackwell-backlog-202605]. Hyperscaler capex for 2026 is guided at $725B, up 77% year over year[^nvda-hyperscaler-capex-202605]. Nvidia takes roughly 90% of the AI accelerator dollar inside that. Ava: Now the China complication. On March 5, Nvidia halted all H200 production for China — about 400,000 units of orders that don’t get filled, roughly $30B of walked-away revenue[^nvda-h200-halt-202605]. Then this week, Jensen Huang rode Air Force One to Beijing. For context — Trump brought 17 CEOs to China; only two got Air Force One seats. Musk and Huang[^nvda-huang-trump-202605]. Huang secured U.S. export approval for H200 sales to 10 Chinese firms — Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com — opening an estimated $50B annual market[^nvda-china-h200-202605]. And then Beijing told its tech companies to pause orders while the government decides on import approval[^nvda-china-h200-pause-202605]. Ava: And one more. The Rubin platform was announced at CES — 5x Blackwell on inference, 3.5x Blackwell on training, 10x reduction in inference token cost[^nvda-rubin-202605][^nvda-rubin-economics-202605]. Production ramps the back half of this year. AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, and Oracle are first in line. Ava: Marcus, the cashflow take. Marcus: Nvidia going into Wednesday night is the only mega-cap in the AI stack where the multiple looks reasonable against the cash. 50x trailing free cash flow on $103B of TTM FCF, fiscal year 2026 10-K confirmed[^memo-nvda-evfcf-20260515][^memo-nvda-fcf-20260515]. Free cash flow grew about 80% year over year[^memo-nvda-fcfgrowth-20260515]. That’s the reasonable end of expensive in the AI stack — and reasonable means the math has to keep compounding. The test Wednesday isn’t the print. It’s whether the Q2 guide carries Rubin pricing. Ava: The China story — net positive or net negative for the next twelve months? Marcus: Net positive. And that’s the contrarian read. The H200 halt walked away from roughly $30B in China revenue, which everyone scored as a loss. But Nvidia carries a $95B supply commitment with TSMC[^nvda-tsmc-supply-202605]. That capacity doesn’t sit idle — it reallocates to Vera Rubin. So the trade is: walk away from H200 China at H200 margins, redirect TSMC capacity to the highest-priced product in the lineup. That’s the better margin trade. The export approval and the China pause net to noise — Nvidia keeps the option, the 10 Chinese firms stay in the queue. The downside case is the policy whiplash recurs and the option goes to zero. Probability-weighted, I take the trade. Ava: And what changes the read after Wednesday? Marcus: The demand side is set. Hyperscaler capex guided up 77% this year[^nvda-hyperscaler-capex-202605], Nvidia at the center of the dollar. The variable is Rubin pricing on the Q2 call. The new platform is 5x Blackwell on inference[^nvda-rubin-202605]. If management talks Rubin pricing on Wednesday, the multiple has room. If they don’t, this is as good as the cycle gets — and the next derate comes in the back half. The print is consensus minus surprise. The guide is the trade. Ava: So the question Wednesday night isn’t whether Nvidia beats. It’s whether Rubin shows up in the language. Rapid-fire Ava: Three quick ones, a forward week sweep, and we’re out. Ava: EQT just printed the best quarter in its history. Q1 free cash flow of $1.8B exceeded the company’s full-year 2022 free cash flow[^eqt-fcf-20260513]. Net debt fell below $5.7B[^eqt-debt-20260513]. Fitch upgraded EQT to investment grade BBB and Citi upgraded to Buy on May 13[^eqt-earnings-20260513][^eqt-citi-20260513]. The company is openly marketing itself as the preferred power partner for Appalachian AI data centers through the 2030s[^eqt-datacenters-202604]. The

    12 min
  3. "Senator, We Run Ads": Inside Meta's AI Cash Machine

    MAY 13

    "Senator, We Run Ads": Inside Meta's AI Cash Machine

    This week on Telltales: Hunt, Jason, and Mike pressure-test Meta’s position as an AI cash machine, walk through the Iran-driven oil setup, and unpack the FDA shake-up and a second consecutive Harrow miss. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Meta is the most profitable AI application ever built: revenue doubled from ~$110B in 2021 to a $220B run rate today, with current growth still ~30% YoY on a $200B base — AI rebuilt the attribution layer Apple’s ATT broke in 2021. * Meta’s capex bet is uniquely uncomfortable: on the last call management told analysts they have no idea what ROIC will be on AI infrastructure spend because, unlike Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle, Meta isn’t renting the servers — it’s defensive spend against what Zuckerberg called an existential paradigm shift. * Oil setup remains manageable despite the Iran standoff and Strait of Hormuz closure: near-month crude is in the $90s, full-year 2026 futures price in at ~$79, 2027 at ~$73, against a ~2M bbl/day inventory draw absorbable by ~1B bbls of US crude inventory plus China’s reserve. * Trump administration’s $1.5T defense ask for fiscal 2027 won’t fully land, but the equipment refresh is happening — bigger concern is US public debt >100% of GNP with no clear capital-markets trigger date, only inevitability. * Harrow/Vevye second consecutive miss: CVS formulary win pulled high-deductible Q1 patients into the $59 Access-for-All program, forcing rebate outflows of $200–$300 per patient back to the PBM — thesis intact but a 5-year payout, not 2–3 years. Show Notes [00:18] Iran Standoff & Crude Inventory Math Hunt frames the Strait of Hormuz closure and the inventory math: a 2M bbl/day draw is absorbable against ~1B bbls of US crude inventory plus China’s reserve. [04:00] Oil Futures Curve & Gasoline Politics Near-month crude in the $90s, 2026 futures price in at ~$79, 2027 at ~$73 — manageable prices, with a path to ~$3.50 gasoline rather than $4.50. [05:36] Defense Budget & US Deficit Trump’s $1.5T fiscal 2027 ask won’t fully land, but the equipment refresh is happening. The real concern is public debt >100% of GNP and an uncertain capital-markets trigger. [07:12] Meta Deep Dive: The Attention Machine Why Meta is unlike other Mag-7 stories — Facebook and Instagram as discovery-to-purchase advertising machines, not search-intent platforms. [13:04] Meta as the Most Profitable AI Application Ever Built ML in ad ranking since 2007, PyTorch’s origin story, and why Meta has been quietly compounding AI dollars longer than any of the LLM darlings. [16:56] Apple ATT, Revenue Doubling, and the CapEx Question The 2021–2022 flat-revenue year that forced Meta to rebuild attribution with AI — and the open question of ROIC on today’s infrastructure spend. [23:29] News: Amazon Supply Chain Services, OpenAI Ads, Nvidia, Tesla, TSMC Amazon stands up a UPS/FedEx competitor, OpenAI launches a self-service ad platform aimed at Google, Nvidia’s earnings cadence, and Musk’s Terra Fab ambitions. [25:49] FDA Shake-Up: Makary Out, Real-Time Reviews In Marty Makary resigns under pressure after the Replimune denial — but the real story is two new real-time review studies with Amgen and AstraZeneca that could compress drug-approval timelines. [30:26] Harrow Earnings: The PBM Rebate Trap on CVS Formulary Second consecutive miss. Winning CVS formulary placement pulled high-deductible patients into the $59 Access-for-All program, forcing rebate outflows that wiped out Q1 economics. Thesis intact, payout extended. Subscribe and get the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us — financials on ~80 companies plus the oil, natural gas, and US deficit exhibits referenced in every episode. Cashtags $META $AAPL $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $ORCL $NVDA $TSLA $TSM $CVS $LLY $REPL $AMGN $AZN This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    35 min

  4. MAY 11

    Weekend Update - W2619

    The Cashflow Memo AI Is Finally Paying. The Question This Week Was How The Suppliers Got Paid. Micron’s 2026 memory is sold out, with customers writing prepayment checks for chips that don’t exist. AMD’s Q1 data center revenue was up 57% — but the strength was EPYC CPUs, not the OpenAI GPU deal, which contributed zero dollars to the quarter. Palantir printed an 85% revenue quarter at a Rule of 40 score of 145. And Disney’s first full quarter under D’Amaro printed streaming income up 88%. The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler. Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2620. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Opening disclaimer * 0:15 | Cold open — throughline + E2619 callback + Mother’s Day * 1:30 | Theme — How the suppliers got paid (MU vs AMD compare/contrast) * 5:30 | Deep dive — Palantir * 9:30 | Rapid-fire — CRCL / DIS / UBER / ABNB + forward-week earnings * 13:00 | Close — Consensus Watch + Wednesday tease * 13:30 | Closing disclaimer Full transcript Opening disclaimer Ava: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Cold open Ava: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk. Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack. Ava: And before we get into it, happy Mother’s Day to all the moms in the audience. Thank you for spending part of today with us. Ava: Here’s the throughline for this week. AI is finally paying — but the unit economics of how suppliers capture that demand vary wildly. On Wednesday’s show, Hunt, Jason, and Mike walked the hyperscaler stack from the bottom up — Hunt made the case that Amazon’s networking edge may matter more than Nvidia’s chips[^ep-e2619]. That was the architecture conversation. Today is the unit-economics conversation, supplier side. Micron printed the cleanest version. Customers writing prepayment checks for memory that doesn’t exist yet[^news-mu-hbm-booked-20260507] — pricing power so strong it’s hitting cash this quarter. AMD printed the messier version. Data center revenue up 57%[^news-amd-datacenter-20260505], but the strength was in EPYC server CPUs and existing Instinct GPU shipments[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505], not the OpenAI deal everyone is anchoring on. That deal — signed last October[^news-amd-openai-20251006], OpenAI got warrants for up to 10% of AMD[^news-amd-openai-warrant-20251006] — contributed zero dollars to Q1[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505]. Shipments don’t start until the second half of this year[^news-amd-openai-20251006]. The CPU side of AMD’s print connects back to Intel two weeks ago — same demand signal, different name on the box[^news-intc-q1-20260423][^news-intc-cpu-ai-20260423]. That’s the show. Theme — How the suppliers got paid Ava: Two supplier prints this week, both validating AI demand, very different evidence about pricing power. Micron is charging customers in advance. AMD’s strength came from CPUs, not GPUs — same story Intel told the market two weeks ago[^news-intc-q1-20260423]. Ava: Page 8 — Micron. Micron’s 2026 high-bandwidth memory is fully booked, with customers signing multi-year prepayment agreements for supply that doesn’t exist yet[^news-mu-hbm-booked-20260507]. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron can only meet between 50 and 67% of demand from key customers[^news-mu-demand-constrained-20260507]. The four largest spenders on AI — Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple — all publicly cited memory cost and availability constraints. Stock hit an all-time high of $683 on May 7[^news-mu-ath-20260507]. Mizuho took the price target from $545 to $740[^news-mu-mizuho-20260509]. And Micron raised fiscal 2026 capex to $25B from $20B, a 25% step up[^news-mu-capex-raise-20260507]. Ava: And AMD. After the close on May 5 — Q1 revenue $10.3B, data center revenue up 57% to $5.8B[^news-amd-q1-20260505][^news-amd-datacenter-20260505], Q2 guidance $11.2B[^news-amd-q2-guidance-20260505], stock up 16% the next day[^news-amd-stock-20260505]. Important read on that data center number. The growth came from EPYC server CPUs and the existing Instinct GPU ramp[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505], not from the OpenAI deal. Per the 10-Q, the OpenAI warrants haven’t vested[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505]. Shipments don’t start until the second half of this year[^news-amd-openai-20251006]. The deal contributed zero dollars to Q1[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505]. Which connects directly to Intel two weeks ago. Intel printed Q1 revenue up 7% YoY to $13.6B[^news-intc-q1-20260423], with management telling the Street that the CPU-to-GPU ratio in AI deployments is shifting from 1:8 toward 1:4, and trending toward parity as multi-agent workloads scale[^news-intc-cpu-ai-20260423]. That’s the read across both prints. AI demand isn’t just GPUs. Hyperscalers are buying head-node CPUs alongside their accelerator clusters. CPU demand is having a renaissance after two flat years, and AMD just confirmed what Intel told the market. Marcus, the cashflow take. Marcus: The Q1 print is good news about the business AMD already has — EPYC share, current Instinct shipments — not about the business AMD bought with equity last October. The OpenAI warrant is a future customer-acquisition cost that doesn’t hit the P&L until the second half of this year[^news-amd-openai-20251006]. When it does, it shows up in two places. As data center revenue ramping into 2027. And as up to 160 million shares of dilution if MI450 hits its deployment milestones[^news-amd-openai-warrant-20251006]. The memo had AMD at 167× trailing free cash flow on $4.4B of TTM FCF[^memo-amd-evfcf-20260328][^memo-amd-fcf-20260328] — that multiple is being defended by the forward book, not by what just printed. Q1 didn’t move the actual question. The actual question is whether the OpenAI relationship — paid for in October at a penny a share — produces enough revenue to justify the dilution. We don’t get a read on that until late 2026 at the earliest. Marcus: The compare to Micron sharpens the point. Both names trade at multiples that need a story. Micron at 209× free cash flow has the leverage of a structural shortage[^memo-mu-evfcf-20260226][^memo-mu-fcf-20260226] — they’re charging in advance because they can, and the cash is hitting the bank this quarter. AMD at 167× paid customers in equity last October to lock in revenue that hasn’t started yet, while the current quarter prints fine on CPU demand and legacy GPU shipments. Both stocks are pricing forward stories. Only one of those stories has cash hitting the bank right now. Ava: Two suppliers, two prints. Same end-market. Pick your fighter. Deep dive — Palantir Ava: Page 17 — Palantir. The cleanest AI is actually paying print of the cycle so far. After the close on May 4. Q1 revenue $1.63B, up 85% year-over-year — the fastest growth rate since the company went public in 2020[^news-pltr-q1-20260504]. Beat consensus by $90M. U.S. revenue alone hit $1.28B, up 104% — the first time U.S. growth has crossed 100%[^news-pltr-us-growth-20260504]. U.S. commercial revenue up 133%. Net income quadrupled to $870M, EPS $0.34[^news-pltr-netincome-20260504]. Adjusted free cash flow $925M on a 57% margin[^news-pltr-fcf-20260504]. Rule of 40 score: 145[^news-pltr-rule40-20260504]. Quick aside for readers who don’t follow software — Rule of 40 is the standard efficiency benchmark in SaaS. You add a company’s revenue growth and its profit margin. 40 is the bar for a healthy software company. Palantir is at 145. Roughly four times the bar. Back to the print — full-year guidance raised from $7.2B to $7.65B[^news-pltr-fy-guidance-20260504]. Marcus, the cashflow take. Marcus: Palantir is the proof point that the rest of enterprise software has been promising and not delivering. The memo has Palantir at 160× trailing free cash flow on $1.9B of TTM FCF[^memo-pltr-evfcf-20260331][^memo-pltr-fcf-20260331]. We re-anchor when the Q1 10-Q files. The number that actually matters from this print is the U.S. commercial line — that’s a customer set that didn’t exist 18 months ago paying real money for AI deployment, not pilots. Ava: 160× free cash flow. Rule of 40 at 145. Marcus: 160× is not defensible on a static comp. It’s defensible only if you believe the U.S. commercial growth rate doesn’t normalize for another four to six quarters. So weight the outcomes. Bull case at 30% — government and commercial both compound from here. Base case at 50% — commercial decelerates and the multiple compresses by half on a stock that still works. Bear case at 20% — the multiple does what 160× multiples always do. Ava: So the question is whether the customer set that just appeared keeps appearing. Marcus: That’s the entire question. Argus upgraded to Buy on May 7, Citi took the target to $225[^news-pltr-argus-20260507][^news-pltr-citi-20260507]. The Street is pricing the bull. Watch the Q2 print for whether U.S. commercial holds north of 100% year-over-year, or steps down to 70. 70 is still a great number. It is also a different multiple. Ava: 145 Rule of 40. That number alone is the whole story. Rapid-fire Ava: Five to close out — one pre-print catalyst, three prints already on the tape, and the forward week. Ava: First — Circle. Reports Monday morning[^earn-crcl]. Wall Street consensus $717M revenue, $0.18 EPS[^news-crcl-q1-20260510]. The setup matters more than the number. The CLARITY Act compromise cleared Congress, banning passive deposit-style yield on stablecoins while explicit

    15 min
  5. Hyperscaler Stack Decoded (e2619)

    MAY 6

    Hyperscaler Stack Decoded (e2619)

    This week we walk through the post-Hormuz oil setup, the Intel stake math, and a layer-by-layer review of the hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and Meta — as they navigate the AI buildout. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Iran ceasefire path holds — Project Freedom (defended Hormuz corridor) is suspended in favor of a one-page 14-point memo brokered via Pakistan; Hunt models ’26 oil at ~$80 and ’27 at ~$72-73, with the $25B war cost absorbable inside the existing $900B defense budget. * Intel stake now worth ~$56B against a $9B cost basis — Mike argues the administration should sell to fund war spending; UAE exiting OPEC+ adds another structural shift but limited ’27 price impact. * Hyperscaler stack defined as five layers (infrastructure → platform → model → harness → application); Amazon leads on platform breadth and faces fewer internal-vs-customer capacity conflicts than Microsoft or Google because AWS scale dwarfs internal compute needs. * Networking has become the strategic differentiator — post-Mellanox, Nvidia prioritizes customers buying bundled compute and networking, which de-prioritized Amazon and forced Trainium; Anthropic running on Trainium signals inference workloads splitting from Nvidia-dominated training. * Meta got beat up unfairly on CapEx ROIC questions — the same AI infrastructure that rebuilt ad attribution post-Apple ATT is what analysts criticize; Zuckerberg pushed back that ROIC isn’t the right lens for application-layer businesses where you build user experience first and monetize later. Show Notes [00:00] Cold Open & Disclaimer Mike opens the show. Standard disclaimer. [00:26] Iran, Hormuz, and Project Freedom Hunt’s six minutes on Iran. Project Freedom (defended-corridor through the strait) is suspended for a one-page memo brokered via Pakistan. Modeling ’26 oil at ~$80 and ’27 at ~$72-73. [06:56] The $56 Billion Intel Stake The Trump administration’s 10% Intel position bought for $9B is now worth ~$56B. Mike’s view: sell it. Plus JP Morgan’s bearish 50s oil call and UAE leaving OPEC+. [09:27] Hyperscaling: Who’s In and How They Got Here Setting up the hyperscaler review. Hunt on Amazon’s accidental cloud head start and the AWS vs. Azure share question. [11:45] The Five Layers of the Stack Mike defines the stack: infrastructure → platform → model → harness → application. Where CoreWeave fits, where Bedrock fits, why platform-as-a-service is the moat. [16:06] Amazon, Trainium, and the Nvidia Networking Story Why Amazon was slow on Nvidia, what changed after Mellanox, and how Anthropic running on Trainium signals the training-vs-inference split. [18:26] Google and Microsoft’s Capacity Conflict Both face the same problem: allocate compute to customers or to internal AI products. Google opening up TPUs. Microsoft’s Copilot and GitHub agent-driven usage explosion. [21:52] Meta’s Already-Built AI Infrastructure Meta rebuilt ad attribution after Apple’s ATT changes by pouring CapEx into AI infra — the spending analysts now punish them for is what powers the ad-business growth. [23:10] Earnings Calls and the ROIC Debate Every analyst question this earnings season was about return on invested capital. Zuckerberg’s pushback: that’s not how application-layer businesses are built. [24:45] The Five-Year CapEx Amortization Question Hunt presses on whether $700M-per-build economics actually pencil with five-year chip obsolescence. Jason on AI displacing labor, Mike on Rentahuman.ai. [27:28] Healthcare Cost Disruption Off-patent generics, GP-as-AI-agent, Amazon One Medical, and the Obamacare 15% profit cap that incentivizes insurers to grow costs. [32:09] Closing & Next Week Next episode: Meta and its digital advertising competitors, plus more on flatlining federal healthcare spending. Subscribe and download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. Cashtags $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $GOOGL $META $NVDA $ORCL $CRWV $INTC $AAPL $JPM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    34 min
  6. Weekend Update — W2618

    MAY 2

    Weekend Update — W2618

    The Cashflow Memo Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all printed in 48 hours. Same capex cycle, three different cloud margin stories — and Apple and Meta both quietly repositioned the balance sheet. The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler. Download the memo at telltales.us. Mike, Jason, and Hunt are back Wednesday on episode 2619. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Opening disclaimer * 0:15 | Cold open * 0:45 | Theme — capital cycle resets (AAPL, META) * 4:45 | Deep dive — hyperscaler cloud face-off (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL) * 8:45 | Rapid-fire (OXY, DIS, PLTR, CVS, MCD) * 11:45 | Close * 12:30 | Closing disclaimer Full transcript Opening disclaimer Ava: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Cold open Ava: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham, the analyst on the show. Every beat you hear from me is anchored in a number from the Cash Flow Memo. If the multiple doesn’t make sense against the cash the company actually generates, I’ll say so. Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. We’re still in the pilot window, so feedback is welcome through the Substack at telltales.us. Ava: This was the heaviest hyperscaler print week of the year. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all reported within a 36-hour window. Apple printed Thursday after the close. Meta printed Wednesday. Roughly $9 trillion of market cap reset its capex framing in the same 48 hours. On Wednesday’s episode 2618, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walked through the big-retail valuation convergence and Hunt’s revised oil thesis, and they teed up a dedicated hyperscaler episode for this week.[^ep-e2618] We did the work for them. The theme first. Theme — capital cycle resets Ava: Two prints this week did something the headline numbers don’t capture. Apple and Meta sit on opposite ends of the universe — different businesses, different buyers, different growth profiles. Both used this print to reposition the balance sheet for an AI capex cycle bigger than what’s been committed to publicly. That’s the theme. Ava: Apple, page 1 of the memo, after the close Thursday. Q2 revenue ~$111B, up 17% YoY, beating consensus.[^news-aapl-q2-print-20260430] Gross margin 49.3% — an all-time record.[^news-aapl-margin-record-20260430] iPhone up 22%. Greater China up 28% on top of December’s 38%.[^news-aapl-china-beat-20260430] Apple authorized an additional $100B in buybacks and raised the dividend 4%.[^news-aapl-buyback-dividend-20260501] Incoming CEO John Ternus made his first public appearance on the call, taking the chair September 1.[^news-aapl-ternus-debut-20260430] But three structural changes hit at once. Apple guided June gross margin to 47.5–48.5% — the first explicit step-down in 8 quarters.[^news-aapl-guidance-strong-20260501] CFO Parekh said Apple is no longer providing net cash neutral as a formal target.[^news-aapl-cash-framework-20260430] And the buyback was halved during the transition window — 93M shares in Q1 to 42M in Q2.[^news-aapl-buyback-halved-20260430] Marcus, the cashflow read. Marcus: Going into this print, the memo had Apple at 37x trailing free cash flow at a 2.6% yield, on ~$106B of trailing free cash flow.[^memo-aapl-priorqtr-20260424] Buyback over that window, ~$92B.[^memo-aapl-buyback-priorqtr-20260424] Those are Q1 10-Q confirmed; we re-anchor when the Q2 10-Q files later this month. The operating print is the best in Apple’s history — that’s not the question. The capital structure read is what matters here. Net cash went from $54B to $62B despite $15B of returns this quarter. The most plausible read on retiring the net-cash-neutral framework is Apple is creating room to issue debt against an AI capex step-up without an offsetting drawdown obligation. Halving the buyback during the transition window gives Ternus operating room to redirect capital differently than Cook. The 37x multiple is being asked to hold at peak gross margin right before a confirmed step-down. The memory cost language has now escalated three calls running — minimal, then a bit more, now significantly higher in June with an increasing impact beyond June. Action: hold; do not add at this price. Ava: Meta, page 1. Q1 revenue ~$56B, up 33% YoY, beating consensus.[^news-meta-q1-earnings-20260429] Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125–145B, $10B higher at both ends of the range.[^news-meta-capex-raise-20260429] JPMorgan downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight; the stock fell about 9% after-hours.[^news-meta-jpmorgan-downgrade-20260430] Mark Zuckerberg announced 8,000 layoffs effective immediately, citing AI infrastructure costs.[^news-meta-layoffs-20260501] Marcus. Marcus: Meta is mid-AI-capex cycle. Capex was running ~$70B trailing twelve going into this print, and the company just guided this year up to $125–145B.[^memo-meta-capex-priorqtr-20260424] When you spend that much faster than you generate operating cash, free cash flow goes negative — that’s the cost of the build, not a flag. So the multiple isn’t the right frame on this name. What actually prices Meta right now is the revenue acceleration. Price-per-ad doubled growth rate Q-over-Q from +6% to +12% — single most important number on the print.[^news-meta-price-per-ad-20260429] The bigger number behind the capex raise is what Susan flagged separately on the call — Meta booked $107B of new contractual commitments in this quarter alone. A single-quarter increment larger than Meta’s entire 2026 capex range.[^news-meta-contractual-commitments-20260429] Off-balance-sheet commitment is now the figure to track. Same pattern as Apple — the headline is operating, the actionable is capital structure. Deep dive — hyperscaler cloud face-off Ava: All three hyperscalers reported within 36 hours. All three guided capex up. All three said AI demand exceeds supply. The margin print is wildly different — and the divergence tells you where each cloud sits on the AI maturity curve. Ava: Amazon, page 1. AWS revenue ~$38B, up 28% YoY — the fastest AWS growth in 15 quarters.[^news-amzn-aws-q1-20260429] Total Q1 revenue beat at ~$182B against consensus of ~$177B.[^news-amzn-q1-earnings-20260429] AWS operating margin stepped from 35.0% in Q4 to 37.8% in Q1 — +280bp sequentially, on $14B of segment operating income.[^news-amzn-aws-margin-20260429] Custom silicon run rate $20B; Trainium-specific revenue commitments now $225B, the first ever disclosure.[^news-amzn-trainium-20260429] Andy Jassy said selling Trainium racks externally is a good chance over the next couple of years.[^news-amzn-trainium-20260429] Q2 revenue guide $194–199B, well above estimates.[^news-amzn-q2-guidance-20260429] Marcus. Marcus: AWS is the cleanest single-number story of the week. The +280bp sequential step-up in segment margin lands directly inside Andy Jassy’s several hundred basis points claim from the shareholder letter. Management did not attribute the lift explicitly to Trainium — leaving headroom on later calls. Going into the print, the memo had Amazon at ~63x trailing free cash flow at a ~1.5% yield, on ~$43B of trailing free cash flow. That’s Q4 10-K confirmed.[^memo-amzn-priorqtr-20260424] The Q1 print just absorbed even more operating cash into capex — Amazon’s free cash flow collapsed ~95% on a TTM basis.[^news-amzn-fcf-20260429] So the consolidated multiple is even less informative; we re-anchor when the Q1 10-Q files. The anchor is the segment margin, not the consolidated multiple. Action: the obvious sub-$200 entry window has closed; hold or add modestly into the Q2 print, where the test is whether 37.8% holds or compounds. Ava: Microsoft, page 1. Q3 revenue ~$83B, up 18% YoY. Azure growth +40% cc.[^news-msft-q3-earnings-20260429] Microsoft guided 2026 capital spending to $190B, well above Wall Street estimates.[^news-msft-capex-190b-20260429] Microsoft 365 Copilot crossed 20M paid enterprise users — up 250% YoY, with Accenture taking 740K seats in the largest-ever single deal.[^news-msft-copilot-20m-users-20260430] And the OpenAI partnership was restructured. The exclusive Azure arrangement ended; OpenAI can now deploy on competing clouds. Microsoft retains royalty-free IP through 2032 and a capped revenue share through 2030.[^news-msft-openai-nonexclusive-20260427][^news-msft-openai-revised-terms-20260427] Stock fell ~6% post-earnings.[^news-msft-stock-decline-earnings-20260430] Marcus. Marcus: Going into this print, the memo had Microsoft at ~97x trailing free cash flow at a 1% yield, on ~$32B of trailing-twelve free cash flow. That’s Q2 10-Q confirmed.[^memo-msft-priorqtr-20260424] Q3 pushes the multiple higher and the yield lower — peak multiple on peak narrative. We re-anchor when the Q3 10-Q files. The Copilot inflection at 20M seats with Outlook-level usage intensity is the single most important data point on the print. The buried quality concern — all-in commercial bookings −6% cc, +7% ex-OpenAI.[^news-msft-bookings-20260429] Mostly comp lap and OpenAI restructure timing, not core enterprise weakness, but the kind of number that would headline a different stock. The OpenAI restructure is the swap of exclusivity premium for predictability — Microsoft now collects a capped annuity through 2030 off a counterparty that just recapped. Lower upside, higher floor. Action: hold; do not add unless Maia and Cobalt margin compounds faster than guided. Ava: Alphabet, page 1. Q1 revenue ~$110B, up 22% YoY.[^news-googl-q1-earnings-20260429] Google Cloud revenue $20B, up 63% — the first time crossing the $20B threshold and the stron

    18 min
  7. Why Costco Is the Most Challenged Big Retailer at 47x Earnings

    APR 29

    Why Costco Is the Most Challenged Big Retailer at 47x Earnings

    Mike, Hunt, and Jason work through a revised oil thesis, the converging big-retail battle between Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, a hyperscaler preview, and the most-favored-nations finish line in pharma. The Cashflow Memo Key Takeaways * Hunt revised his oil thesis: the Strait of Hormuz impasse with Iran now looks structural after the US rejected Iran’s offer of a 5-year enrichment pause, pushing near-month oil from a ~$90 anchor toward a $110–$120 range with downstream pressure on natural gas as Permian associated gas keeps Waha hub pricing in negative territory. * Big retail is converging on the same customer: Walmart’s PE ran from low-20s to mid-40s, Costco trades at 47x with a $440B market cap and no debt, and Amazon’s 12-month PE has fallen below Walmart’s for the first time despite running zero-margin retail monetized through advertising and a logistics network now larger than UPS. * The hosts singled out Costco as the most challenged of the three on valuation alone — 47x for a retailer with an unclear growth runway leaves no margin of safety, while Amazon retail looks structurally underpriced if AWS is roughly two-thirds of the $2.8T EV (implying ~$1.2T for everything else, vs. Walmart’s $1T enterprise value). * Defense tech is the next disruption beat: $30,000 drones have effectively kept US destroyers offshore in the Gulf, F-35-style cost-plus contracting is broken, and Palantir-style product-first defense companies (Palantir was added this week to the Netflix page in the memo) are the model — Hunt is hunting for a drone-company addition next. * Healthcare update: the White House finalized Most Favored Nations contracts with all 17 top pharma companies (Regeneron last), Lilly is on an acquisition spree, and Teva bought a biotech with no approved drugs in market — Jason stays constructive on generics manufacturers as the structural winners of the looming patent-cliff wave. Show Notes [00:00:18] Disclaimer Standard informational disclaimer. [00:00:27] Exhibit C: Oil and the Hormuz Impasse Hunt walks through a meaningful change in his oil supply/demand view — the US-Iran embargo now looks structural after Iran’s enrichment offer was rejected. Near-month oil targets shift toward $110–$120. [00:05:38] Exhibit B: Gas and the Permian Problem Stronger oil pulls more associated gas out of the Permian, pushing Waha hub pricing into negative territory and supporting a bearish gas outlook into 2027. [00:09:00] Exhibit A: Federal Cashflow and Defense Spending Healthcare cost flattening, Doge aftereffects, and why the real defense fight is about efficiency, not topline. [00:11:58] Defense Tech Disruption Jason and Mike on Palantir’s product-first model, the F-35 lesson, and why the prime-contractor lobby is the main obstacle to better procurement. [00:14:14] New Memo Additions: Palantir and Micron Hunt adds Palantir to the Netflix page and Micron to the telecom page in this weekend’s 4/27 draft. [00:15:35] Big Retail: Amazon vs Walmart vs Costco Walmart and Costco trade at mid-40s PE; Amazon’s PE has slipped below Walmart’s for the first time despite hidden value in retail and logistics. [00:23:04] Why Costco Looks Most Challenged At 47x with no obvious growth runway, Costco has the thinnest margin of safety of the three. [00:25:43] Hyperscaler Preview AWS is roughly 50% larger than Azure, implying AWS is ~two-thirds of Amazon’s EV and leaving the retail + logistics piece around $1.2T — vs. Walmart’s $1T. [00:28:33] OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle WSJ flags OpenAI missing 2025 budget targets, with knock-on effects to SoftBank, Oracle, and AMD — Jason notes the spending plan hasn’t actually changed. [00:29:33] Pharma: Most Favored Nations Complete White House finalized MFN contracts with all 17 top pharma companies, Regeneron last. FDA is exploring real-time trial-data review. [00:31:03] M&A: Lilly Spree, Teva Strategy Shift Lilly keeps acquiring; Teva buys a biotech with no approved drugs — a possible drift away from generics at the worst time, given the patent-cliff tailwind ahead. [00:32:30] Coming Attractions Hyperscaler deep dive, Anthropic, a drone-company memo addition, and Circle on the Mastercard page. Get the Cashflow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe for new episodes every Wednesday. Cashtags $AMZN $WMT $COST $PLTR $MU $MSFT $GOOG $ORCL $AAPL $NVDA $LLY $REGN $TEVA $SPOT $TMUS $VZ $T $UPS $MA $AMD This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    35 min
  8. Weekend Update — W2617

    APR 27

    Weekend Update — W2617

    The Cashflow Memo Q1 prints divide — Intel’s best day since 1987, Charter’s worst Tesla, ServiceNow, Apple, Intel, Charter, UnitedHealth, Kinder Morgan all printed. Five megacaps and Regeneron up next week. The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler. Download the memo at telltales.us. Mike, Jason, and Hunt are back Wednesday on episode 2618. Chapter markers * Time | Segment * 0:00 | Opening disclaimer * 0:15 | Cold open * 0:45 | Theme — Q1 prints divide (TSLA, NOW, AAPL) * 4:45 | Deep dive — INTC + CHTR * 8:45 | Rapid-fire (UNH, KMI, AMZN, MSFT) * 11:45 | Close * 12:30 | Closing disclaimer Full transcript Opening disclaimer Ava: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. Cold open Ava: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot. Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham, the analyst on the show. Every beat you hear from me is anchored in a number from the Cash Flow Memo. If the multiple doesn’t make sense against the cash the company actually generates, I’ll say so. Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. We’re still in the pilot window, so feedback is welcome through the Substack at telltales.us. Ava: This was the heaviest single earnings week of the cycle for the Cash Flow Memo universe. Tesla, ServiceNow, Intel, Charter, UnitedHealth, and Kinder Morgan all reported. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Regeneron all report next week. On Wednesday’s episode 2617, Mike, Jason, and Hunt opened on Tim Cook stepping down at Apple and pressed the question of whether a hardware-led AI bet was Apple’s edge or its Intel-style blind spot.[^ep-e2617] By Friday afternoon, the cautionary tale was out-printing the cautionary subject. Intel had its best single session since 1987. We get there. The theme first. Theme — Q1 prints divide Ava: This was the first week the market told you what kind of Q1 print it was going to reward. The answer: very few of them. Three names on page 1 and page 2 of the memo printed this week. Two beat. One beat and got punished. All three are stories the market spent the week re-pricing. Ava: Tesla, page 1 of the memo, after the close Tuesday. Revenue $22.39B, a slight beat against consensus.[^news-tsla-q1-print-20260422] Q1 deliveries 358,023 units, missing consensus by about 7,600.[^news-tsla-q1-deliveries-20260422] Auto gross margin excluding credits 19.2%, the highest of any quarter in 2025.[^news-tsla-q1-margin-20260422] On the call, Musk pushed unsupervised consumer Full Self-Driving to Q4 of this year at the earliest[^news-tsla-fsd-delay-20260422] and announced full-year capex would rise to $25B from prior guidance of $20B.[^news-tsla-capex-20260422] Marcus, the cashflow read. Marcus: Tesla generated $1.4B of free cash flow in Q1, sequentially.[^news-tsla-capex-20260422] On the memo, the trailing-twelve-months free cash flow yield is still negative — -0.3%.[^memo-tsla-fcfyield-20260424] So the print resolves a little of the cash question and re-opens it at the same time. $25B of capex against an Optimus factory build and a Cybercab line that’s already started production[^news-tsla-optimus-20260422][^news-tsla-cybercab-production-20260423] is what $1.4B of quarterly cash buys you. And note the working-capital signal: Tesla maxed out a $5.8B Chinese bank facility this quarter while sitting on $44.7B of US cash on the balance sheet.[^news-tsla-china-debt-20260423] That’s a market-specific liquidity problem inside a balance sheet that does not need help in aggregate. Ava: ServiceNow, page 2 of the memo, after the close Tuesday. Subscription revenue $3.67B, up 22% YoY, beating guidance.[^news-now-q1-earnings-20260422] AI revenue guidance raised to $1.5B for 2026 from $1.0B. Customers spending more than $1M in Now Assist annual contract value grew 130% YoY.[^news-now-ai-traction-20260422] Stock dropped 18%. Middle East deal slippage, a 75 bps margin headwind from the Armis acquisition, and a guide reset that pushed normalized expansion out to 2027.[^news-now-earnings-selloff-20260422] Marcus, what does the memo say. Marcus: ServiceNow trades at 213x trailing free cash flow on the memo.[^memo-now-evfcf-20260424] At that multiple, a beat plus a guide raise on AI bookings is what’s expected. It’s not what gets you paid. What gets you paid at 213x is acceleration. The market saw deal slippage, margin compression, and a reset on the timing of the AI revenue conversion, and concluded the gap between bookings and revenue recognition is bigger than the multiple was pricing. Trailing-twelve free cash flow grew 55% YoY.[^memo-now-fcf-20260424] That’s still a beat. It’s just not a 213x beat. Ava: Apple, also page 1. Earnings April 30, consensus $1.92 on $109.35B in revenue.[^earn-aapl] But the news this week was the succession. Tim Cook steps down September 1. John Ternus, head of hardware engineering, takes the chair.[^news-aapl-cook-ternus-20260421] iPhone shipments in China up 20% YoY in Q1, strongest growth among major vendors against an overall market that was down 4%.[^news-aapl-china-iphone-20260417] India’s Competition Commission has set a final hearing for May 21 on a $38B antitrust case Apple is contesting.[^news-aapl-india-fine-20260420] Marcus, into the print, what does the memo carry. Marcus: Apple is on page 1 at 37x trailing free cash flow with a free cash flow yield of 2.6%.[^memo-aapl-evfcf-20260424] Trailing twelve months, Apple generated $105.6B of free cash flow, up about 18% from the prior trailing twelve.[^memo-aapl-fcf-20260424] Buyback was $91.8B over that same window.[^memo-aapl-buyback-20260424] That’s what Cook is handing Ternus. Whatever the AI strategy looks like under the new chair, the cash engine doesn’t need to be repaired. It needs to be redirected. Deep dive — Intel and Charter Ava: Two earnings prints sat at opposite ends of the week. Both are deep dives because each one moved its stock more than 20% — one up, one down — and each one reset the conversation around the company. Ava: Intel, page 3 of the memo. Q1 revenue $13.6B against consensus of $12.6B, a $943M beat.[^news-intc-q1-beat-20260423] Non-GAAP earnings per share $0.29 against a $0.01 estimate.[^news-intc-eps-beat-20260424] Data Center and AI revenue up 22% YoY to $5.1B, and CEO Lip-Bu Tan called the demand for server CPUs huge on the call.[^news-intc-dcai-22pct-20260424] Q2 guide $13.8B–$14.8B, above consensus. EPS guide $0.20.[^news-intc-q2-guidance-20260423] The number behind the number — Intel announced Tuesday that Tesla had been signed as the first major customer for the 14A process node, for TeraFab AI chip production. Tan said on the call there was no better partner.[^news-intc-tesla-14a-20260422] On Friday, the stock closed up 24% at an all-time high above $82, the best single session since 1987.[^news-intc-stock-24pct-20260424] Marcus, the cashflow read. Marcus: This is where the memo asks a different question than the tape. Intel’s trailing-twelve free cash flow is -$16.2B and the free cash flow yield is -4.8%.[^memo-intc-fcf-20260424][^memo-intc-fcfyield-20260424] The memo can’t carry an EV/FCF multiple on Intel because the denominator is negative. The Q1 print does not change that. What the print changes is the slope. Revenue beat by $943M on a base where management has been guiding flat. The Q2 guide steps revenue up another 2-3% sequentially. 18A is hitting yield milestones, and 14A just landed Tesla.[^news-intc-18a-14a-20260424] If you believe the slope, the question is when free cash flow inflects positive. If you don’t, the multiple still doesn’t exist. Ava: One more piece of context. The US government’s 9.9% stake in Intel, acquired through CHIPS Act conversion for $8.9B, is now worth approximately $36B at Friday’s close.[^news-intc-govt-stake-20260424] Marcus, that math. Marcus: That’s a 4x return for Treasury inside roughly a year, which is the cleanest mark to date on the CHIPS Act capital structure. It doesn’t change Intel’s free cash flow. It does change the political price of letting the company run an aggressive foundry capex plan. Washington is now long the foundry build, marked to market. Ava: Charter Communications, page 5 of the memo, before the open Thursday. Earnings per share $9.17 against consensus of $10.01, an $0.84 miss.[^news-chtr-eps-miss-20260424] Stock fell 24%. The cleanest single-day decline in our universe this week. Inside the print: Spectrum Internet customers declined by 120,000 subscribers in Q1, against improvement in mobile and video.[^news-chtr-internet-loss-20260424] Capex guidance is the second beat. 2026 capex peaks at $11.4B before tracking down to under $8B by 2028.[^news-chtr-capex-guidance-20260424] And the Cox Communications acquisition, $34.5B and $800M in identified synergies, has cleared the FCC and DOJ but is still waiting on California CPUC approval.[^news-chtr-cox-status-20260424][^news-chtr-cox-synergies-20260424] Marcus, the memo number. Marcus: Charter trades at 69.7x free cash flow on the memo.[^memo-chtr-evfcf-20260424] Trailing twelve months Charter generated $1.8B of free cash flow.[^memo-chtr-fcf-20260424] The free cash flow yield looks attractive at 6%.[^memo-chtr-fcfyield-20260424] But debt to free cash flow is 53x.[^memo-chtr-debtfcf-20260424] That’s the number the multiple is pricing. At 53x debt to free cash flow, you do not have permission to lose broadband subscribers in your peak capex year while the merger you’re counting on for synergies is still sitting at one state regulator. The selloff is a re-pricing of the Cox close from a near-certainty into a timing risk. Ava: One forwar

    12 min
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An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don't mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    by Top Mark Capital
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    271
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Mike Nicoletti
  • Show Website
    Telltales

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