Telltales

Mike
  • 5.0 (6)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don't mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

  1. 5D AGO

    The SaaSpocalypse Is Here (e2608)

    SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt move from energy market crosscurrents into an AI-driven “SaaSpocalypse,” then close with high-stakes healthcare updates—from Lilly’s trillion-dollar run to PBM reform and early cancer detection. [00:19] Disclaimer Important investing and risk disclosure before the discussion begins. [00:29] Exhibit C: Oil, Iran, and Geopolitical Risk Crude holds in the mid-$60s as tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz keep markets on edge. The team weighs U.S. posture, escalation scenarios, and what could force a near-term resolution. [03:00] Exhibit B: Natural Gas Backwardation and Permian Pain Natural gas pricing looks oddly soft despite a strong winter for demand, while Waha trades negative through cold weather. The group discusses upcoming pipeline capacity and what it could mean for Henry Hub and Gulf Coast pricing. [04:36] Exhibit A: U.S. Finances, Defense Spending, and the Fed A reality check on deficits, interest costs, and the limits of materially higher defense budgets. Hunt also discusses the Fed balance sheet, QT, and how lower short rates may not translate cleanly to long-bond relief. [08:35] SaaSpocalypse: How AI Disrupts Software and Who Wins The cost of writing code collapses, UI becomes less central, and the market rethinks what a software company actually is. They debate moats, distribution, sales vs. engineering, and why “when AI works, we just call it software.” [12:21] Microsoft Office, File Formats, and Network Effects Is the Office moat about features—or about interoperability and trust? Jason argues AI could dissolve file-format lock-in via on-the-fly conversion, while Mike counters that pros still need power tools and workflows. [17:11] Big Tech Capex and AI Inference Demand They connect massive data center spend (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle) to rising inference usage rather than just training. The team frames this as both opportunity and disruption risk for incumbent SaaS. [21:26] Is Tesla Overvalued? Robotaxis, Regulation, and Reality A hands-on Full Self-Driving trip shapes Jason’s view that the technology is “extremely close,” shifting the bottleneck to regulation. They discuss what has to happen for robotaxi economics to justify Tesla’s valuation. [24:18] Is Eli Lilly Overvalued? Weight Loss, Alzheimer’s, and Direct-to-Consumer Lilly’s trillion-dollar milestone meets a cash-flow and durability debate: long patent lives, strong execution, and a surprisingly large share of prescriptions flowing through a direct-pay platform. [26:00] PBMs in the Crosshairs A bipartisan proposal targets vertically integrated PBM structures, with the group arguing that PBMs’ share of drug economics is distorting incentives. They explain why breaking up the model could shift profit pools back toward drugmakers and patients. [27:29] Multi-Cancer Early Detection: Medicare Reimbursement Path A policy update on potential Medicare reimbursement starting in 2028 for blood-based early cancer detection tests. Jason explains the “needle in a haystack” science and why earlier detection could improve outcomes and lower total costs. [28:29] Vertex: Non-Opioid Pain and CF Competitive Landscape They review Vertex’s pain medicine data as a meaningful step toward reducing opioid use in acute settings. The conversation also touches CF innovation and why some competing mRNA approaches have recently stalled. [31:43] Harrow: CVS Formulary Coverage and Early Signals Harrow lands CVS PBM formulary coverage and becomes the top prescribed dry-eye therapy within CVS workflows. Early prescription signals look promising, though the team notes data remains incomplete. [32:41] Lantheus: Management Reset and Thesis Watch A CEO change brings back leadership from the original investment era. They discuss pricing missteps, why the thesis may still hold, and what they’re watching next. [33:29] BioNTech vs Moderna: Cash Discipline and Vaccine Economics BioNTech’s cash preservation gets praise while Moderna navigates FDA review dynamics for its flu vaccine. A candid comment about U.S.-centric profitability highlights how much the U.S. subsidizes life-science innovation. Thanks for listening—download the latest Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe for next week’s continued discussion on AI disruption, energy, and healthcare. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    36 min

  2. FEB 11

    China and the Cash Flow Memo: From FedEx to Fed Funds (e2607)

    SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, the team runs through the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three exhibits—U.S. government finances, natural gas, and oil—then closes with the massive Big Tech CapEx wave and what it means for chips, data centers, and geopolitics. [00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo overview Quick setup on the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and how to use the weekly memo alongside the exhibits. [00:19] Disclaimer Important investing and information-use disclaimer before the discussion begins. [00:35] Exhibit C: Oil supply/demand and the Iran “risk premium” Oil prices look meaningfully higher due to potential military action risk, with negotiations likely stretched out—keeping volatility elevated even if the base case is “status quo.” [02:00] Why WTI in the low-60s may persist The group discusses slower global demand growth (especially China) and how surplus capacity could take longer to work off, supporting a range-bound outlook despite the market’s inherent volatility. [03:08] Exhibit B: Natural gas—cold winter, but price disappointment Even with extreme weather, the gas strip remains below the hoped-for $4 level; the conversation centers on why demand isn’t the problem, and why supply growth keeps winning. [05:12] Gas-to-power, coal, and LNG policy shifts Coal plant dynamics, evolving renewable incentives, and LNG export growth (plus new authorizations) reshape the demand mix—while associated gas from the Permian continues to pressure the market. [08:31] Exhibit A: U.S. government cash flow and the rate/issuance puzzle The team discusses balance sheet drawdown ambitions, the risk of stressing long rates, and why Treasury might lean toward shorter maturities even as deficits remain large. [11:06] Page 17: FedEx, UPS, Nike, Costco, Lennar A quick pass on how China and global trade show up differently across logistics, sourcing-heavy consumer brands, retail supply chains, and homebuilding inputs. [12:52] Pages 5–6: Cable vs Telco competition heats up Charter/Comcast and AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile are less China-exposed today, but face intensifying competition as cable pushes wireless and telcos push fiber and fixed wireless. [14:45] A wild card: SpaceX as a future “telco page” peer The team flags how Starlink could change the competitive landscape—especially for last-mile connectivity. [15:06] Page 16: Restaurants, beverages, and travel—how “international” matters McDonald’s, Starbucks, Chipotle, Celsius, and Hilton spark a discussion on global exposure, brand localization risk, and the long runway (or limits) for beverage expansion abroad. [16:56] Page 7: Payments—MasterCard, Visa, PayPal Why global card networks can be insulated from China in one sense (local payment ecosystems) while still benefiting from worldwide commerce growth. [17:36] Page 15: Pharma and biotech supply chains The group highlights China’s role in inputs and manufacturing, the incentives to reshore, and why smaller biotechs may keep outsourcing due to cost and cash constraints. [20:21] Page 8 + beyond: Retail sourcing and U.S. industrial “moats” Walmart/Target and home improvement retailers feel China most through goods sourcing, while industrial leaders (and aerospace suppliers) raise questions about competition, approvals, and future global demand. [22:51] Page 13: Banks and brokers—global exposure in context A quick look at JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Interactive Brokers—where international activity matters, but may not dominate cash flow. [24:27] Energy pages: why China isn’t the main factor here The group wraps the memo tour with a fast view of energy coverage and why China is less central for the companies highlighted. [25:48] Big Tech CapEx shock: $700B+ and what it implies Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft (and more) are spending at nation-GDP scale; the team debates what’s driving it, how it’s funded, and why “not spending it all” could even be market-positive. [26:41] Chips, capacity, and the TSMC bottleneck question If everyone depends on the same advanced manufacturing base, can supply keep up—and what does that mean for timelines, pricing power, and who benefits? [27:47] Data centers: land, regulation, and the real constraints Beyond chips, the discussion moves to land availability, state-level pushback, and how power procurement and cost allocation can shape where and how fast capacity gets built. [31:09] Cost anatomy of AI infrastructure and the “power isn’t the limiter” view A breakdown of what it takes to build data center capacity—power vs shells vs racks/chips—and why the group believes power can be built out if policy and incentives align. [33:26] Taiwan geopolitics and investing under uncertainty The team closes on Taiwan risk framing, long timelines, and why outcomes may be pursued only when “victory” is assured—military or political. If you’re using the Cash Flow Memo, drop a comment with the tickers you want covered next week—and subscribe so you don’t miss the next exhibit-driven deep dive. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    36 min

  3. FEB 9

    China, Cash Flow, and the AI Software Shakeout (e2606)

    SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, the team connects the dots between macro headlines and the Cash Flow Memo—spanning energy markets, Fed policy, AI’s impact on software, and where China creates real business exposure across industries. [00:20] Disclaimer A quick reminder that the discussion is informational only and not investment advice. [00:45] Exhibit C: Oil Market Setup US–Iran negotiations and potential sanctions relief could add supply, while shifting demand dynamics (including India) shape the medium-term oil price outlook. [05:06] Exhibit A: Deficits, the Fed, and a New Chair Narrative A deep dive into the Federal Reserve balance sheet debate, quantitative tightening, and how policy credibility could ripple into rates, the dollar, and even gold/silver sentiment. [10:44] Space Update: Moon Mission + Space-Based Data Centers NASA’s upcoming moon mission sparks a broader conversation: could data centers move to space, and what are the real engineering constraints (heat, orbits, satellite scale)? [14:48] Software Selloff: Can AI Replace SaaS? The crew unpacks why big software names are under pressure—debating whether AI can truly “code on demand” and what moats still matter (support, mission-critical workflows, and systems of record). [18:11] China Impact (Page 20): Consumer Platforms + Supply Chain Reality A quick scan of consumer-facing businesses and where China matters more through sourcing, manufacturing, and supply chain fragility than direct revenue. [19:16] China Impact (Page 1): Apple and Tesla as the Bookends Why Apple’s manufacturing footprint and China sales exposure remain central—and how Tesla’s China production influences the risk profile. [21:07] Healthcare Focus (Page 19): Big Pharma vs China’s Rising Biotech Stack A practical look at how China is integrating across pharma supply chains (generics, CDMOs/CROs, biologics), and why that could evolve into true competitive pressure over time. [23:40] China Impact (Page 2): Cloud + Model Access Strategy Oracle, OpenAI financing, and the logic behind AWS positioning as an aggregator of multiple models—versus single-model platform tie-ups. [26:15] China Impact (Page 18): Copper, Lithium, Solar, and the Energy Transition How China’s role in solar equipment, lithium refining, and battery production filters into commodities and utilities—and why lithium refining capacity is becoming strategically important. [31:11] Wrap + Next Week Closing thoughts and a preview of next week’s episode—plus a note on upcoming additions to the pages as new public market names emerge. If you’re using the Cash Flow Memo alongside the episode, download it, follow along by page, and share the show with an investor friend who cares about fundamentals, cash flow, or sailing. SHOWNOTES This week on Telltales, the team connects the dots between macro headlines and the Cash Flow Memo—spanning energy markets, Fed policy, AI’s impact on software, and where China creates real business exposure across industries. [00:20] Disclaimer A quick reminder that the discussion is informational only and not investment advice. [00:45] Exhibit C: Oil Market Setup US–Iran negotiations and potential sanctions relief could add supply, while shifting demand dynamics (including India) shape the medium-term oil price outlook. [05:06] Exhibit A: Deficits, the Fed, and a New Chair Narrative A deep dive into the Federal Reserve balance sheet debate, quantitative tightening, and how policy credibility could ripple into rates, the dollar, and even gold/silver sentiment. [10:44] Space Update: Moon Mission + Space-Based Data Centers NASA’s upcoming moon mission sparks a broader conversation: could data centers move to space, and what are the real engineering constraints (heat, orbits, satellite scale)? [14:48] Software Selloff: Can AI Replace SaaS? The crew unpacks why big software names are under pressure—debating whether AI can truly “code on demand” and what moats still matter (support, mission-critical workflows, and systems of record). [18:11] China Impact (Page 20): Consumer Platforms + Supply Chain Reality A quick scan of consumer-facing businesses and where China matters more through sourcing, manufacturing, and supply chain fragility than direct revenue. [19:16] China Impact (Page 1): Apple and Tesla as the Bookends Why Apple’s manufacturing footprint and China sales exposure remain central—and how Tesla’s China production influences the risk profile. [21:07] Healthcare Focus (Page 19): Big Pharma vs China’s Rising Biotech Stack A practical look at how China is integrating across pharma supply chains (generics, CDMOs/CROs, biologics), and why that could evolve into true competitive pressure over time. [23:40] China Impact (Page 2): Cloud + Model Access Strategy Oracle, OpenAI financing, and the logic behind AWS positioning as an aggregator of multiple models—versus single-model platform tie-ups. [26:15] China Impact (Page 18): Copper, Lithium, Solar, and the Energy Transition How China’s role in solar equipment, lithium refining, and battery production filters into commodities and utilities—and why lithium refining capacity is becoming strategically important. [31:11] Wrap + Next Week Closing thoughts and a preview of next week’s episode—plus a note on upcoming additions to the pages as new public market names emerge. If you’re using the Cash Flow Memo alongside the episode, download it, follow along by page, and share the show with an investor friend who cares about fundamentals, cash flow, or sailing. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    33 min
  4. Cashflow Pick’em 2026 (part 2, e2605)

    JAN 29

    Cashflow Pick’em 2026 (part 2, e2605)

    SHOWNOTES In this special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition, the team runs through the Cash Flow Memo and drafts the companies they think will grow free cash flow the most (percentage basis). Along the way, they hit the latest in oil and natural gas, then pivot into healthcare policy and the AI-driven semiconductor buildout. [00:32] Disclaimer Investment discussion for informational purposes only; do your own work before making any decisions. [00:42] Exhibits A–C: Oil, Gas, and U.S. Fiscal Process Oil firms up on geopolitical risk, natural gas rebounds sharply amid cold-weather pricing, and the team notes progress on U.S. spending bills and budgeting timelines. [05:26] Page 9: Energy Majors and LNG Hunt makes his pick among XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, and LNG—favoring LNG on capacity execution and positioning despite broader LNG supply concerns. [05:59] Page 10: Midstream Showdown On KMI, EPD, ET, WES, and ONEOK, Hunt leans toward EPD for integration and consistent operating performance. [06:19] Page 11: Upstream Discipline Test With oil down meaningfully, Hunt selects EOG as the most disciplined operator best suited to manage a tougher commodity tape. [06:45] Page 12: Natural Gas Producers and Midstream Weighing AR, EQT, CHK, and AM, Hunt calls it close but lands on AR, citing solid positioning and management. [08:01] Page 13: Banks and Brokers Jason and Mike both pick IBKR (and note broad AI agreement), while Hunt goes contrarian with GS; they discuss how buybacks vs. organic growth can drive FCF outcomes. [09:11] Page 14: Industrials and Aerospace Jason picks TDG on aircraft production recovery, Mike sticks with GNRC, and Hunt picks CAT—highlighting end-market sensitivity and where operating leverage may show up. [10:01] Healthcare: Big Pharma and Biotech Picks Jason picks LNTH (new prostate diagnostic and Alzheimer’s imaging growth), Mike picks VRTX, and they recap last year’s surprising winner and how baselines can distort growth rates. [11:34] Page 16: Consumer, Restaurants, and Beverage Jason and Mike align on CELH (including growth from Alani Nu), while Hunt goes with CMG and discusses leadership changes and brand durability. [13:28] Page 17: Logistics, Retail, and Housing Jason sticks with FDX (including a thesis around USPS services), while Mike and Hunt pick LEN—framing potential tailwinds for homebuilding and affordability dynamics. [15:01] Page 18: Materials, Fertilizer, and Utilities The team debates FCX vs. ALB vs. CF vs. NEE, focusing on lithium snapback potential, copper strength, and commodity-linked cashflow volatility. [17:05] Page 19: Managed Care and Pharma Giants With UNH, CVS, REGN, and LLY, the group converges on LLY again—weight-loss and Alzheimer’s themes dominate the discussion. [18:41] Page 20: Platforms, Delivery, Travel, and Small-Cap Healthcare Jason and Mike pick HROW again as commercialization scales, while Hunt chooses UBER, arguing the market may be underestimating Uber’s moat as autonomy ramps. [20:20] Scoreboard and Pick Recap They tally results (including AI agents) and reflect on where each host’s picks were strongest vs. weakest. [21:08] Healthcare Policy: PBM Reform and Incentives Jason breaks down PBM-related provisions affecting Medicare Part D incentives and rebates, plus how workarounds (e.g., GPO structures) can blunt intended reforms. [23:05] Administration, FDA Direction, and System-Level Change The team argues that structural regulatory changes to food/health oversight may be more durable than headline-grabbing controversies, emphasizing long-term consumer impact. [26:36] Semiconductors: ASML Bookings and the Capex Reality Check They interpret strong ASML bookings as evidence the AI infrastructure buildout remains real, then discuss TSM capacity constraints, Intel’s catch-up spend, and why partners seek second sources. [29:10] China, Taiwan Risk, and the Next Topic Arc A forward-looking setup for deeper China/Taiwan discussion across the memo universe, with a reading plug for Apple in China and how policy risk filters through real businesses. Thanks for listening. If you want the updated Cash Flow Memo and exhibits, download it at the podcast site—then drop a comment with your own “Pick’em” winners and what data you’re watching this year. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    33 min

  5. JAN 22

    Cashflow Pick’em 2026 Part 1 (e2604)

    SHOWNOTES This special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition runs a percentage-based free cash flow draft across the memo (pages 1–13), then closes with exhibits on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. budget—plus a healthcare segment featuring GLP-1 dynamics and emerging cancer vaccine data. [00:00] Cashflow Pick’em Format and Ground Rules Host sets the framework: pick the company on each page most likely to grow free cash flow the most on a percentage basis, and keep score versus last year’s predictions. [00:00] Disclaimer Standard informational-purpose disclaimer and reminder to do your own work. [00:00] Big Tech Picks: Tesla vs. Amazon vs. Apple Spending The group reviews last year’s results (Tesla surprised on FCF growth) and debates whether AI data-center CapEx keeps pressuring peers while Tesla benefits off a lower base and optionality (including robotaxi economics). [00:04] Software Picks: ServiceNow, Broadcom, Snowflake, Oracle Lessons ServiceNow won last year, Oracle disappointed, and this year’s debate centers on Broadcom’s AI hardware exposure versus Snowflake as an enabling layer for agentic tooling. [00:06] Semiconductors: Nvidia’s Run Rate vs. TSM CapEx and AMD/Intel Wildcards Nvidia’s dominance is acknowledged, but the conversation digs into bottlenecks, pricing power, and whether heavy foundry CapEx changes the cash flow race. [00:09] Media: Spotify Discipline vs. Netflix Spend and Deal Risk Spotify’s cash flow trajectory and cost discipline face off against Netflix’s content ramp and strategic transaction risks, with Meta and Disney briefly framed through the lens of capital intensity. [00:11] Telecom/Cable: AT&T Cloud RAN Thesis, Charter CapEx, T-Mobile Execution Comcast’s prior-year surprise is noted, then the focus shifts to margin structures, leverage, and whether cloud-based network architectures can unlock better economics. [00:13] Payments: PayPal Turnaround vs. Visa/Mastercard Durability The group leans into operating leverage and improvement potential at PayPal versus steadier compounding models for the networks. [00:14] Retailers: Walmart Resilience, Home Depot Housing Tailwinds, CarMax Turnaround A tough page with shrinking free cash flow leads to a discussion of “least bad” outcomes and what could drive a bounce-back, including housing policy tailwinds. [15:56] Exhibit C (Oil): Supply Discipline, OPEC+ Capacity, and WTI Range A quick state-of-play on global supply, spare capacity trends, and why the base case centers around high-$50s/low-$60s WTI with constrained production increases. [18:55] Exhibit B (Natural Gas): Henry Hub Pressure and LNG Oversupply Risk Natural gas retraces from recent highs as supply builds early; LNG growth remains the hope, but global pricing and oversupply dynamics can cap upside. [20:41] Exhibit A (U.S. Government Finances): Shutdown Risk and Budget Process Discussion on funding deadlines, progress on appropriations, and why a shutdown appears less likely if committees complete key spending bills. [21:54] Healthcare News: JPM Conference, Moderna–Merck Melanoma Data, Illumina Reimbursement Updates on muted deal flow, encouraging long-duration melanoma outcomes from a Moderna–Merck program, and a notable reimbursement development for Illumina-related oncology testing. [24:25] Lilly vs. Novo: GLP-1 Pills, Patents, and the Next Margin Battle The group evaluates oral GLP-1 momentum, patent cliffs outside the U.S., and why manufacturing cost and pricing strategy could reshape share over time. [26:27] Cancer Vaccines: How They Fit Into Treatment and Monitoring A practical framework for vaccines as an “anti-relapse” add-on, the role of MRD/early detection, and how falling test costs could expand routine screening and follow-on interventions. [31:01] Wrap and Next Week They pause the memo walkthrough to finish the remaining pages next episode and invite listeners to follow along with the memo and exhibits. If you want the full context behind each pick, download the Cash Flow Memo and follow along page-by-page. Subscribe for next week’s continuation of the cashflow predictions and more updates across energy, technology, and healthcare. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    32 min

  6. JAN 14

    Healthcare Shockers, AI Doctors, and a Trillion-Dollar Pharma Buying Spree (e2603)

    SHOWNOTES In this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through their 2026 surprises across healthcare, tech, and energy—then tie it back to what cash flow investors should actually watch. Expect big calls on pharma M&A, AI in healthcare workflows, macro deficits, and the durability of Nvidia’s profit engine.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo Quick setup on the weekly memo and the focus areas for this episode: energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:25] Disclaimer Standard informational-only disclaimer before the discussion begins.[00:35] Healthcare Surprises for 2026 The group frames the “surprises” format and tees up Jason and Mike before Hunt’s larger policy thesis.[01:01] 2026 Could Be the Biggest Pharma M&A Year Ever Jason argues looming patent cliffs could force massive dealmaking just to keep sales flat—setting up a potentially historic acquisition cycle.[02:33] High Fructose Corn Syrup Ban Thesis A policy-driven surprise: Jason predicts a push to ban high fructose corn syrup as a simpler lever than restructuring agricultural subsidies.[02:56] Functional Cure for Parkinson’s via Cell & Gene Therapy Jason outlines why a breakthrough approval could arrive quickly—and why it could reignite investor optimism in the broader cell/gene complex.[04:36] AI Agent Doctors and Prescription Workflows Mike predicts “agentic” healthcare interactions; Jason points to real-world pilots aimed at reducing friction in routine prescription refills.[05:58] Medicare for All as a Bipartisan Surprise Hunt lays out a scenario where Medicare expands eligibility broadly, potentially eliminating Medicaid and shrinking the uninsured population—plus the deficit math challenges.[13:15] UnitedHealthcare, PBMs, and Structural Pressure The conversation touches on insurer economics, PBM exposure, and how policy shifts could reallocate (or disrupt) the healthcare profit pool.[14:10] AI in Healthcare: HIPAA-Compliant Tools and Workflow Enablement The group discusses AI applications in medical records and patient education, and why healthcare is becoming a prime arena for LLM deployment.[16:08] Oil Exhibit C: Resilient Prices Amid Geopolitics Hunt reviews production context (Iran, Venezuela) and why oil may hold in a higher range despite arguments for lower pricing.[17:38] Natural Gas Exhibit B: Production Surge and Power Demand Reality Check A high-supply setup led by the Permian meets softer “gas to power” demand—while LNG feed gas remains a key bright spot.[19:26] U.S. Government Finances Exhibit A: Deficit Focus and Spending Discipline Tariffs, entitlement reality, and the central objective: bending the deficit trajectory down over the next fiscal years.[21:41] Apple-Google: Gemini-Powered Siri Deal The group breaks down what the deal signals strategically and why “memory” and switching costs could define the next era of AI platforms.[23:45] Retail Updates: Walmart, Target, and Amazon’s Reinvestment Machine Hunt revisits Walmart’s free cash flow and compares retail positioning, while highlighting Amazon’s extreme R&D and capex reinvestment intensity.[27:00] Is Nvidia’s Margin Sustainability the Key Tech Question? Nvidia’s free cash flow conversion, hyperscaler capex expectations, and the integrated “full stack” advantage (compute, networking, cooling) that may defend margins.[30:42] Next Week Preview: China Exposure Across the Memo The team tees up a two-part run through the memo’s companies with a focus on China risk, Taiwan Semiconductor, and regulatory constraints.If you found this helpful, download the latest Cash Flow Memo and follow the channel for weekly episodes covering energy, technology, and healthcare through a cash flow lens. Share the episode with an investor who cares about fundamentals, not narratives.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    33 min

  7. JAN 7

    Tech Shockers for 2026 (e2602)

    This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt continue their “surprise” predictions for 2026. This week, focusing on tech related surprises. Then they shift into the memo’s exhibits on oil, natural gas, and U.S. government finances. They close with timely healthcare updates and a rapid-fire run through major news on pages 1–4. [00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike introduces the Cash Flow Memo and previews a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare. [00:00] Disclaimer A quick reminder: this conversation is informational only and not investment advice. [00:30] 5 Tech Surprises for ’26 The team frames the segment as “surprises” that run against conventional wisdom, setting up five big tech calls. [01:41] #1 Stablecoins surpass SWIFT (monthly volume) Why stablecoins could become a dominant rail for cross-border dollar flows, and what regulation changes might mean. [04:09] #2 Tesla robotaxi rides beat Waymo (weekly) The case for a faster network rollout, plus skepticism around why autonomy scaling has been slower than expected. [06:17] #3 First quantum break of a crypto wallet A prediction that a dormant, high-value wallet gets cracked via brute-force quantum capability, distinct from “traditional” hacks. [08:04] #4 xAI leads foundation models by end of ’26 A debate on whether hardware scale and speed to deploy new systems could shift leadership in frontier AI models. [10:43] #5 Federal AI legislation passes The group discusses incentives for a single national framework versus a patchwork of state rules. [11:26] Macro surprise: Republicans hold the House A quick political curveball and how it could influence the policy backdrop for tech, crypto, and AI. [12:04] Sponsor break: Oakcliff Sailing A brief interlude on hands-on composite repair training and high-performance sailing programs. [13:13] Exhibit C: Oil and Venezuela Hunt breaks down why Venezuela’s “reserves” story is complicated, what heavy oil economics imply, and why Chevron flows matter for prices. [16:56] Exhibit B: Natural Gas and the Permian Warmer weather, weak Waha pricing, rising associated gas, and LNG liftings all collide in the 2026 setup. [18:53] Exhibit A: U.S. finances and the deficit path Why they think the deficit can keep shrinking with growth + inflation, and what to watch around potential shutdown headlines. [21:50] Healthcare news JPMorgan Healthcare Conference expectations, Novo Nordisk’s pill-form weight-loss move, Eli Lilly’s competitive dynamics, and why MRD testing could reshape trial design and treatment timing. [24:38] Pages 1–4: Tech and market news round-up Netflix and Warner deal chatter, antitrust workarounds, Nvidia’s next-gen platform economics, xAI fundraising, JPM’s “Proxy IQ,” ASML talent leakage concerns, and what it means to onshore leading-edge chips. [35:06] Next week The team tees up “healthcare surprises” for the next episode and signs off. If you found this useful, grab the latest Cash Flow Memo and follow along with Exhibits A–C as you listen. Subscribe for next week’s healthcare surprise episode and drop a comment with your boldest 2026 prediction. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    37 min

  8. 12/30/2025

    5.5 Energy & Macro Surprises for 2026 (e2601)

    A rapid-fire “surprises for 2026” episode—contrarian macro + energy calls, then quick year-end check-ins for tech and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:20] Disclaimer Informational only, not investment advice.[00:30] Macro & Energy Surprises Framework “Five-and-a-half surprises” for 2026: plausible outcomes that run against consensus.[01:24] Surprise: Debt-to-GNP Falls A scenario where the deficit narrows enough that debt held by the public declines (as % of GNP) by ~1 point.[02:40] Surprise: NRC Issues 2 Reactor Construction Permits A call that the nuclear regulator approves two new builds—potentially one traditional large reactor and one SMR.[04:39] Surprise: Private Fusion Hits Ignition A major fusion milestone happens outside a national lab—important progress, even if commercialization is still distant.[05:57] Reality Check: Nuclear Economics Debate on who eats overruns and how cost-of-capital + rate structures can cap nuclear’s rollout.[08:43] Surprise: Gas Supply Stays Strong Pushback on “associated gas is rolling over” narratives; the case that supply holds up into 2026.[10:05] Surprise: $5 Natural Gas A demand-driven bull case (LNG + data centers) that lifts marginal costs and resets the price band higher.[11:49] Surprise: China Oil Demand Re-Accelerates The team argues China could return to demand growth, challenging “peak demand” assumptions.[12:34] Next Two Weeks Preview Same “surprises” format continues—next week tech, following week healthcare.[12:54] Exhibit C: Oil Quick scan of oil + geopolitics; acknowledge headline risk without anchoring forecasts to low-probability events.[13:25] Exhibit B: Natural Gas Check the strips and structure (e.g., backwardation/contango) and what it implies for pricing.[13:51] Exhibit A: US Government Finances A fast read on fiscal dynamics and the political incentives shaping spending/subsidies.[17:31] Tech Updates Year-end thoughts on major semis/software—Nvidia + Groq talk, plus Amazon’s Graviton and CPU economics.[21:09] Healthcare Updates Preview themes: opioids, depression treatments, and drug pricing—plus how subsidies/incentives affect utilization and costs.[27:52] Wrap-Up Closing thoughts and a reminder: next week is tech surprises, then healthcare surprises—subscribe so you don’t miss them. This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

    29 min
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5
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6 Ratings

About

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don't mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Mike
  • Years Active
    2021 - 2026
  • Episodes
    252
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Mike Nicoletti
  • Show Website
    Telltales