The Alpha Architect Round Up

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The Alpha Architect mission is to empower investors through education.

09/08/2025

Meb Faber: Global Value, Institutional Baggage & Performance Chasing | September Round Up

Can stocks really underperform for bonds decades?! In this special Alpha Architect Round Up celebrating 3,000 subscribers, we sit down with Meb Faber to dig into surprising market truths, diversification challenges, and why buy-and-hold doesn’t always work outside the U.S. In this episode, we discuss: • Why stocks can stagnate or trail other assets like bonds and gold for decades • The hidden role of farmland and housing in the global portfolio • Vanguard’s surprising call for international bonds • Trend-following: misunderstood or just out of favor? • The pitfalls of institutional investing and why complexity often loses • Behavioral mistakes investors keep repeating (performance chasing, sitting on cash) • Which countries and strategies are “totally not crushing it” today—but might be tomorrow Follow Meb's summer series "20 Things You May Not Know About Markets (or That Might Surprise You)": https://x.com/MebFaber/status/1936136442079855067 Follow the Alpha Architect Team and Meb on X: Wes Gray, PhD: https://x.com/alphaarchitect Jack Vogel, PhD: https://x.com/jvogs02 Ryan Kirlin: https://x.com/RyanPKirlin Jose Ordoñez Jr: https://x.com/JOrdonezJr Meb Faber: https://x.com/MebFaber Subscribe for more insights on diversification, market trends, and smart investing strategies! For more educational resources, visit: https://www.alphaarchitect.com Disclosures: https://www.alphaarchitect.com/disclosures

46 min
08/07/2025

Is Market Volatility Incoming? | August Round up

Submit your questions! Email: jose@alphaarchitect.com Are tariffs coming back—and is the market ready? The global trade landscape just got more complicated. With key tariff extensions expiring and deal-making in limbo, investors are left wondering what’s already priced into the market—and what might still catch them off guard. In this conversation, the Alpha Architect team to break down what these developments mean for inflation, volatility, and long-term investing strategy. In this episode, we discuss: • Why the expiration of tariff extensions could shake global markets • How much of the trade disruption is already priced in • Inflation: transitory spike or structural trend? • The limits of macro forecasting for long-term investors • When trend following works—and why it’s different from economic prediction • What increased access to private equity could mean for everyday investors • Volatility exposure: smart hedge or expensive distraction? Follow the Team on X: Wes Gray, PhD: https://x.com/alphaarchitect Jack Vogel, PhD: https://x.com/jvogs02 Ryan Kirlin: https://x.com/RyanPKirlin Jose Ordoñez Jr: https://x.com/JOrdonezJr Subscribe for more insights on diversification, market trends, and smart investing strategies! Music License: VFX3P5IRW5LIFQAA For more educational resources, visit: https://www.alphaarchitect.com Disclosures: https://www.alphaarchitect.com/disclosures

40 min
07/07/2025

Tail Hedging & Trend Following in 2025 | July Round Up

Submit your questions! Email: jose@alphaarchitect.com Is Tail Risk Hedging Still Worth It? And What’s Up With Trend Following and International Stocks? In this episode of the Alpha Architect Roundup, we tackle the recent market dip, the muted VIX, and what that means for tail risk hedging strategies. While investors hoping for a crash were left disappointed, the conversation turns to whether protection still has a place in a portfolio. We also dive into the struggles of trend following during whipsaw markets, the subtle resurgence of international equities, and how to think about weighting factors and diversifiers. From AI in factor research to why keeping it simple may still be the best edge, this episode offers a wide-angle lens on risk management, return generation, and investor behavior in today’s market. We discuss: • Why equities remain the dominant return driver—and where value and momentum fit in. • How to think about tail risk hedging when the VIX stays muted. • Lessons from comparing the 2020 crash to the 2025 market dip. • How trend following performed recently, and whether it’s still a valid strategy. • Why implementation (slow vs. fast signals) matters in managed futures. • The nuanced role of trend as a diversifier vs. portfolio protection. • A data-backed argument for international stocks—and whether the trend is sustainable. • What investors are (and aren’t) saying about international allocations. • How to think about weighting schemes in factor and diversifier portfolios. • The pros and cons of AI in factor investing—and why simplicity and transparency still win. Follow the Team on X: Wes Gray, PhD: https://x.com/alphaarchitect Jack Vogel, PhD: https://x.com/jvogs02 Ryan Kirlin: https://x.com/RyanPKirlin Jose Ordoñez Jr: https://x.com/JOrdonezJr Subscribe for more insights on diversification, market trends, and smart investing strategies! For more educational resources, visit: https://www.alphaarchitect.com Disclosures: https://www.alphaarchitect.com/disclosures

45 min
06/09/2025

What's Up with Bonds?! | June Round Up

Can Apple really be safer than the U.S. government? In this episode of the Alpha Architect Roundup, we explore the odd disconnect between credit ratings and market pricing. Apple holds a higher rating than the U.S.—but Treasury yields suggest otherwise. What does that say about risk perception, inflation expectations, and the role of bonds in your portfolio? In this episode, we discuss: – The disconnect between credit agencies and bond market pricing – The bond market’s lackluster performance post-2022 – Rising tariffs and their impact on inflation – Momentum’s underperformance despite a strong market – Whether T-bills are still the “risk-free” rate – Practical strategies for managing long-term macro uncertainty Sources: – "Why Are Bond Investors Contrarian While Equity Investors Extrapolate? Understanding Return Expectations, Part 3" by Antti Ilmanen. AQR. Subscribe for more insights on diversification, market trends, and smart investing strategies! For more educational resources, visit our website: https://www.alphaarchitect.com Disclosures: https://www.alphaarchitect.com/disclosures

32 min
05/26/2025

Investing Amid Trade Wars with Kai Wu

What stocks should you own in a trade war? That’s the question I posed to Kai Wu, founder of Sparkline Capital, after reading his latest blog post. His answer? It's not what most investors expect—and it goes way beyond headlines about tariffs and retaliation. We discuss: • The two key dimensions of trade exposure: sales and supply chains • Why global firms have historically outperformed—despite higher risk • The concept of a “geopolitical risk premium” • How intangibles like brand equity and human capital change the game • What investors can do today to stay globally exposed without losing sleep Sources: Investing Amid Trade Wars by Kai Wu: https://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/investing-amid-trade-wars International Intangible Investing by Kai Wu: https://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/international-intangible-value Subscribe for more insights on diversification, market trends, and smart investing strategies! Website & Disclosures For more educational resources, visit our website: https://www.alphaarchitect.com Disclosures: https://www.alphaarchitect.com/disclosures

50 min
05/16/2025

Do Small Cap Value Stocks ACTUALLY Outperform?

Can large value stocks hold their own against small value stocks? The answer might surprise you! In this video we challenge the narrative that small value stocks dominate, explore what really matters for long-only value investors, discuss the impact of liquidity, rebalancing, and portfolio weighting, and examine evidence from U.S. and international markets by examining Jack Vogel's academic paper, "Long Only Investing: Does Size Matter?". Key Topics: • Why long/short results don't apply to most investors • The case for equal-weighting large value stocks • Liquidity advantages of large caps • Factor decay and rebalancing frequency in portfolios • Market cap weighting risks in portfolio construction Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro: Do small value stocks really outperform? 1:00 – The finding: Size does not matter! 2:54 – What's large and small? 4:01 – Large vs. small horse race results 4:45 – Economical vs. statistical significance 6:03 – The impact of transaction costs 8:20 – Size and factor decay 9:21 – Out-of-sample tests & variations 10:22 – What happens if one value-weights large value? 12:28 – What does this all mean for investors? 13:41 – Outro Sources: “Long-Only Value Investing: Does Size Matter?” by Jack Vogel, PhD: https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdf AQR’s “The Devil in HML's Details” by Asness and Frazzini: https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/The-Devil-in-HMLs-Details Subscribe for more insights on diversification, market trends, and smart investing strategies! For more educational resources, visit our website: https://www.alphaarchitect.com Disclosures: https://www.alphaarchitect.com/disclosures

14 min
05/05/2025

The Trump Bear Trap | May Round Up

The Trump Bear Trap: Volatility, Tariffs, and Factor Frustration Markets whipsawed through April, with sudden drawdowns, massive rebounds, and political catalysts fueling confusion. In this episode of the Alpha Architect Roundup, we break down whether this is a true bear trap—or just the cost of being a long-term, evidence-based investor. Key Topics Covered: •Is this a bear trap or just market noise? •The impact of Trump’s tariff threats and 90-day delays •Why GDP shrank—and whether it means recession •Crisis alpha and trend following: when should it work? •Small-cap drawdowns and doubts about the size premium •Do value and momentum still deserve investor trust? •What it takes to stick with factor investing through pain Timestamps: 00:00 –Intro/ Factor investing should be hard 01:27 – April volatility: bear trap or bull trap? 06:39 – "Kicking the can down the road" 12:29 – GDP contraction: signal or noise? 15:31 – Crisis alpha and trend disappointment 19:49 – Is the size premium dead? 21:40 – Factors and the problem of timing 27:04 – Are factors dead? 36:49 – Is technical analysis for n00bs? 40:12 – Final thoughts Subscribe for more insights on diversification, market trends, and smart investing strategies! Website & Disclosures For more educational resources, visit our website: https://www.alphaarchitect.com Disclosures: https://www.alphaarchitect.com/disclosures

40 min
04/21/2025

Is Options Hedging Worth It? with Arin Risk Advisors’s Joe DeSipio

Is option hedging worth it — or just an expensive insurance policy? We sat down with Joe DeSipio, Chief Market Strategist at Arin Risk Advisors, to explore how professional investors think about using options for hedging, portfolio construction, and opportunistic trading. In this conversation, we cover: • Why put options are often overpriced, and what to do about it • The rise of retail interest in options and its effects in market-making • How to navigate "explanation risk" with clients • Why 0DTE options aren’t the threat some think they are • Using options as a complement for traditional portfolios • Dynamic vs. static hedging: when to use each approach • The efficiency (and inefficiencies) of the options market • Why RoaringKitty changed the world of options for the best Subscribe for more insights on diversification, market trends, and smart investing strategies! Website & Disclosures For more educational resources, visit our website: https://www.alphaarchitect.com Disclosures: https://www.alphaarchitect.com/disclosures

28 min

The Alpha Architect mission is to empower investors through education.

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The Alpha Architect Round Up