The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

LightBox
  • 5.0 (12)
  • BUSINESS
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

Stay informed with weekly episodes by LightBox offering insights into the latest developments in commercial real estate (CRE) and interviews with the industry's market leaders. Join Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker as they provide CRE data and news in context. Subscribe so you don't miss an episode.

  1. 1D AGO

    The Wall of Maturities, “Revenge of the Midwest,” and a Surprise Bull Case for Office from Guest Richard Hill

    If you think the “wall of maturities” is still the biggest CRE story, this episode might change your mind. This week, Manus Clancy sits down with Richard Hill of Principal Asset Management to walk through a data-driven reality check on why the debt markets are more open and liquid than headlines suggest, and why the surprising 75% payoff rate on 2025 maturities (excluding office) is a statistic investors are underweighting. He also flips the script on distress: rising delinquencies and special servicing aren’t a fresh alarm bell, he argues. They’re a lagging part of the cycle that may signal that the market is working through the reset. The conversation is packed with sharp, sometimes counterintuitive takes: like Richard’s contrarian take on why a 3% 10-year Treasury isn’t automatically bullish for CRE, what “cycle of dispersion” really means (and why this is no longer a beta trade), and where there’s a strong case for selective conviction across sectors. You’ll hear why Chicago and Midwest multifamily may be the quiet winners, why office’s problem is concentrated in a subset of aging building, why industrial might be over-loved, and why open-air shopping centers and senior housing could offer a surprising upside to investors. It’s a sharp, numbers-backed conversation about dispersion, discipline, and why the next leg of the cycle will reward those who can underwrite, not just allocate. 03:00 The “Wall of Maturities” Narrative vs. Market Reality 06:30 Why CRE Debt Is a Lagging Indicator (Delinquencies Explained) 10:27 Floating Rate Pain: The “Mother of All Squeezes” 12:24 Risk Premiums, CRE CLOs & Is This Still a Fair Value Market? 17:20 Liquidity Is Back: What’s Fueling the Lending Rebound 21:26 Multifamily Reset: Oversupply, Class B Opportunity & Midwest Momentum 25:13 Office Recovery: A Class B/C Problem, Not a Market Collapse 27:51 Industrial Fatigue, Retail Revival & Senior Housing Strength 35:32 What Could Derail the Recovery? Watching the 10-Year Treasury Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.  Send a text www.lightboxre.com

    40 min

  2. FEB 13

    Navigating Market Potholes as CRE Optimism Holds

    Stocks hit new highs. CRE stocks took a hit. Treasury yields dipped. Retail sales stalled. Welcome to another week of crosscurrents. From 30,000 feet, the market looked smooth—the S&P cracked 7,000, and the Dow topped 50,000. But up close? It felt more like the Bronx River Parkway: bumps, swerves, and plenty of head scratchers. In this episode, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dial into the disconnect. CRE brokerage stocks slid sharply even as the labor market surprised to the upside with 130,000 new jobs (up from 50,000 in December), wage growth outpaced inflation at 3.7%, and the 10-year Treasury fell from 4.30% to 4.14%. Then we pivot to what we heard on the ground in San Diego—where EBA and MBA CREF conferences drew lenders, underwriters, consultants, and dealmakers from across the US. The MBA’s latest forecast calls for another 27% surge in CRE loan originations this year. And on the ground, green shoots abound. AI-driven leasing demand is reviving parts of San Francisco (4.3M SF of potential near-term demand). Supply-constrained Chicago multifamily is heating up. And Simon is doubling down in retail with a $250M bet on high-end mall redevelopments. By virtually any metric, cautious optimism is the vibe. Storm clouds? Maybe. But capital is leaning in. Tune in for the data, the debate, and what could unlock the next leg of CRE recovery—plus our take on Valentine’s Day surge pricing for red roses and dinner reservations. 04:39 Labor Market and Economic Indicators 09:22 Commercial Real Estate Trends and Predictions 13:32 Polling Insights and Market Sentiment 18:34 Regional Comebacks: San Francisco's Revival 22:56 Chicago Multifamily Market Resurgence 26:22 Retail Sector Recovery and Future Prospects Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.  Send a text www.lightboxre.com

    29 min

  3. FEB 6

    Wave of Sell-Offs Triggers Market Jitters but CRE Holds Its Ground

    A sudden wave of market turbulence jolted investors this week, triggering sharp selloffs across tech stocks, crypto, and precious metals. Volatility spiked, and confidence quickly gave way to caution. In this week's episode, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker share thoughts on what’s driving the sell-off, from weaker job growth and record-high layoffs to stretched equity valuations and growing unease around AI-fueled trades. The key question: is this a healthy correction, or the early stages of a deeper market reset? Despite the broader market chaos, commercial real estate is showing notable resilience. LightBox’s January CRE Activity Index points to environmental due diligence volume up 27% year-over-year, listings up 25%, and December closing out as the most active transaction month of 2025. The conversation explores regional bank consolidation, high-profile office assets coming to market in Chicago, Manhattan, and South Florida, and why CMBS and CRE CLO spreads may be the most important indicators to watch as volatility persists. A week defined by uncertainty, yet one where CRE continues to test its footing.  00:41 Markets Snap: From Calm to Fear in 48 Hours 03:04 Macro Crosscurrents: Jobs, Rates & Bank Consolidation 05:10 Volatility Without a Safety Net: Why Treasuries Aren’t Saving CRE 07:10 Sentiment vs. Data: Is This a Healthy Correction or Something More? 10:12 Will CRE Hold Up If Markets Slide Further? 14:34 Market Signals to Watch: CMBS & CRE CLO Spreads 15:30 January CRE Activity Check: Listings, Due Diligence & Transactions 19:24 Big Assets Coming to Market: Office & Multifamily Price Discovery 26:50 Office Reset Stories: Contrarian Bets That Paid Off (and One to Watch) 30:31 New Development Returns: Trammell Crow’s Santa Monica Resi Play Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.  Send us a text www.lightboxre.com

    35 min

  4. JAN 30

    Strong Deals, Soft Data – CRE’s Cautious Optimism Tested

    Wall Street is celebrating new highs, lenders are open for business, and CRE transaction volume, especially in multifamily, is leading the pack. So why does the market feel so… uneasy? In this week’s episode, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker dig into what may be the paradox of the moment: a “K-shaped” economy that’s becoming even more extreme in a market full of contradictions. On one side, equity markets continue to set new records. On the other, consumer confidence has sunk to a 12-year low, reflecting softer job growth, high prices, and growing unease. Yet CREFC’s Lending Sentiment Index just hit a new high in Q4, signaling that capital markets are “open for business.” At the same time, risks are building. Manus Clancy flags tightening risk premiums in lending and growing concerns around yen volatility and the potential unwinding of the yen carry trade, a technical but powerful force that could reprice risk quickly if conditions shift. On the transactions front, 2025 ended on a strong note. In this week’s LightBox Data Dive, listeners learn which five cities accounted for nearly one-quarter of all multifamily deals in December. The episode rounds out with a look at the week’s biggest deals—from California’s ongoing office reset and an office-to-Costco conversion to rising community pushback that could slow even the red-hot data center sector. The conversation wraps with a Slice of Life that turns a snowy walkway into a surprisingly sharp metaphor for underwater CRE loans coming due. Strong CRE momentum, soft consumer confidence, and a close watch on the signals that don’t always make the headlines. Tune in for context, perspective, and what it could mean in the months ahead.  00:50 Economic Disparities and Consumer Sentiment 05:54 Stock Market Paradox and Lending Concerns 12:34 Yen Volatility and Market Risks 16:44 Multifamily Market Insights 20:27 Office Market Trends in California 27:11 Retail and Data Center Developments Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.  Send us a text www.lightboxre.com

    35 min

  5. JAN 23

    Boots on the Ground: Retail’s Human Element in an AI-Driven World with Gregg Katz

    Retail has been declared “dead” more times than we can count, but the data (and the parking lot oil stains) tell a very different story. Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker sit down with Gregg Katz, Director of Business Industry Solutions – Real Estate at Esri, for a wide-ranging conversation on why boots-on-the-ground insight still matters in a world overflowing with AI, dashboards, and foot-traffic metrics.  From the myth of the retail apocalypse to why visitation doesn’t always equal transactions, Gregg unpacks how generational shifts, population migration, and what he calls “enjoyment retail” are reshaping malls, grocery-anchored centers, and site selection strategy. Along the way, the team detours into nostalgic retail icons (Service Merchandise, anyone?), why Gen X’s spending power may be hiding in plain sight, and a delightfully human story about Lego’s ageless appeal. It’s a smart, human, and refreshingly real look at where retail is headed, and what the data alone can’t tell you. 01:37 Gregg Katz's Journey in Retail  03:39 The Evolution of Retail  07:43 Retail Trends and Consumer Behavior  18:28 Population Migration and Retail Impact  22:01 Generational Spending Power  26:21 Balancing Data and Human Judgment in Retail  30:40 Future of Retail and Consumer Spending 33:19 Nostalgia and Retail: The Lego Story Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.  Send us a text www.lightboxre.com

    39 min
  6. CRE’s Calm in the Chaos—Positive Bank Signals, Robust Year-End Deal Surge, and 2026 Momentum

    JAN 16

    CRE’s Calm in the Chaos—Positive Bank Signals, Robust Year-End Deal Surge, and 2026 Momentum

    While macro markets meander amid geopolitical noise, political pressure on the Fed, and mixed signals from Wall Street, commercial real estate is telling a very different story. In Episode 80 of The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down a week where CRE played the role of the calm, steady grandmother in an otherwise jittery economy.   Drawing on fresh LightBox data and the latest 2026 outlooks, the conversation explores why lender confidence remains intact, why capital is still moving in CRE, and what December’s surge in big-ticket deals says about pricing clarity and investor appetite. Highlights include the 44% jump in deals over $100M, rising buyer engagement across multifamily and office listings, and growing expectations for CMBS issuance in 2026.  The episode also hits standout stories across retail, office, and development, from necessity-based retail wins and a Miami office trade to a $326M hotel-to-resi conversion in New York City. The takeaway? It’s still a market of winners and laggards—but momentum, liquidity, and confidence are clearly building in the early days of 2026.   00:43 Macro Markets Meander, CRE Stays Steady  03:30 2026 Outlooks: Capital Is Ready and Lending Is Open  08:05 Data Dive: December Deal Volume Surges  11:35 Did You Know: Buyer Interest Is Rising  15:45 Retail Headlines: What’s Working and Why  20:45 Development Watch: Conversions and Housing Momentum  26:55 Office and Industrial Deals Making Headlines Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.  Send us a text www.lightboxre.com

    33 min
  7. Head-Scratchers, Housing Shockwaves, and a December to Remember

    JAN 9

    Head-Scratchers, Housing Shockwaves, and a December to Remember

    The first full week of 2026 delivered a rapid series of headlines, some encouraging, some concerning, and a few real head=scratchers. In this episode, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker break down a week of unpredictable news, from mixed macro signals and surprise policy proposals to the year’s first “didn’t-see-that-coming” geopolitical development in Venezuela. With December behind us, LightBox’s Transaction Tracker and CRE Activity Index data is out.  December’s CRE Activity Index dipped to 86.9, a typical seasonal slowdown and about half the usual year-end decline. Meanwhile, nine-figure CRE deal volume jumped 44% month over month, reflecting the lagged impact of elevated activity in September and October, when underwriting and diligence for year-end deals were getting underway. The takeaway: December saw a seasonal pause in activity, but deal momentum closed the year on a strong note. The hosts also explore multifamily’s uneven recovery, the office value resets across major metros, early insights from LightBox’s AI benchmark study, and why office-to-resi conversions in New York and D.C. remain a clear sign of capital conviction.  The team also looks ahead with major forecasts leaning cautiously optimistic and January typically marking a rebound after a seasonally slower December, challenging the market to look past the noise and focus on what the numbers are signaling.  04:23 Single Family Rental Market Dynamics 11:29 New York City Housing Challenges 16:49 Economic Outlook for 2026 20:09 CRE Activity Index and Transaction Trends 23:02 AI in Environmental Due Diligence 27:10 Multifamily Market Insights 35:02 Office Market Challenges 38:02 Development Trends and Confidence Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.  Send us a text www.lightboxre.com

    44 min
  8. 2026 Outlook—Bull vs. Bear and the Forces Shaping CRE’s Next Chapter

    JAN 2

    2026 Outlook—Bull vs. Bear and the Forces Shaping CRE’s Next Chapter

    What will really drive commercial real estate in 2026? In this forward-looking episode, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker cut through the noise to examine the macro forces, market risks, and opportunities most likely to shape the year ahead. The conversation opens with a quick scorecard of their 2025 predictions, using fresh data on rates, lending, deal activity, and the LightBox CRE Activity Index to separate signal from hindsight.  From there, the focus turns squarely to 2026. The team weighs the bullish and bearish cases—from a more dovish Fed and faster rate cuts to labor market softening, stimulus-fueled growth, and lingering “higher-for-longer” risks on the 10-year Treasury. On the CRE side, they explore what a more intentional, execution-driven year could mean for pricing, capital deployment, and deal flow, highlighting a bifurcated market, steadier momentum in the LightBox CRE Activity Index, and why disciplined strategy may outperform speculation. The episode closes with a set of surprise predictions, including potential equity market volatility and AI’s expanding role in everyday CRE workflows.  00:23 Grading 2025: Interest Rates, Lending, and Deal Activity 04:15 Volatility, Treasuries, and the LightBox CRE Activity Index 07:35 Turning the Page: Why 2026 Is Harder to Predict 09:10 The Bull Case for 2026 14:55 The Bear Case: Labor, Deficits, and Market Fragility 22:05 CRE in 2026: Capital, Pricing, and a Bifurcated Market 31:00 Surprise Predictions: Markets, AI, and What Comes Next Have questions for the pod team? Send them to Podcast@LightBoxRE.com.  Send us a text www.lightboxre.com

    34 min
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
12 Ratings

About

Stay informed with weekly episodes by LightBox offering insights into the latest developments in commercial real estate (CRE) and interviews with the industry's market leaders. Join Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker as they provide CRE data and news in context. Subscribe so you don't miss an episode.

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