The Daily Digits

The Daily Digits
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Five or six numbers each morning. Base rate, horizon, and the misses published. The Daily Digits is a free crypto and macro podcast: falsifiable market calls with a base rate, a time horizon, and a line that would kill the view. We mark hits and misses when they resolve. Every episode points back to the full morning edition with charts and workings at thedailydigits.com. thedailydigits.com

  1. 1d ago

    44-year low: the oil reserve points crude lower

    America’s emergency oil stockpile is at its lowest since 1982. The read is that somebody has to refill it, so crude goes up. Across ten stretches like this one it went the other way. 5:05 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode - The oil reserve at a 44-year low has been bearish crude. Bearish crude over the next quarter, on the level rather than the 25-week streak. - August housing starts fell because July was revised up. Neutral on the August headline. - AutoZone’s buyback did half the work and is close to done. Neutral on AZO. Also in this morning’s edition, not in the episode - The Fed has not paid the Treasury in four years. Bearish the repayment. - One cent of premium is worth 11 vol points at SPY’s far put wing. Neutral on SPY’s far put wing. On the ledger this morning - Our raised-risk call on the American stock index from August settled Thursday as a miss: it never fell the 5% the call needed. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2026-09-17 Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    44-year low: the oil reserve points crude lower

  2. 2d ago

    5%: twice the odds of a drop, and still not a correction

    The ten-year at a fresh two-year high has preceded a 5% fall in the S&P inside the month twice as often as an ordinary day, which leaves us bearish into mid-October. 5:07 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode - The 10-year at a two-year high is the equity gauge that is firing. Bearish the S&P, which has been lower a month later six times in ten after this signal. - The mortgage lending spread rules out a correction this quarter. Neutral on the S&P, and a 10% correction is not the likely case on this gauge. - Issuers can destroy 61% of the dollar stablecoin float. Mispriced for anyone holding a freezable stablecoin as censorship-resistant money, and sound for law enforcement and for theft victims. - SPY’s fee is the floor on what it costs you, not the measure. Bearish SPY on total return against SPLG, which tracks the identical index. Also in this morning’s edition, not in the episode - The Fed raised rates and explained it in 114 words. - Bitcoin is the wrong instrument for US crypto policy risk. Mispriced, because the classification-exposed asset carries the policy premium and bitcoin does not. On the ledger this morning - The 18 August call on a 5% S&P fall settled Wednesday as a miss. - A neutral S&P call from 20 August settled Wednesday as a hit. - A bullish bitcoin call from 28 August missed, with the coin about 4% lower. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2026-09-16 Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    5%: twice the odds of a drop, and still not a correction

  3. 3d ago

    2.60%: real money costs the most since 2008

    Of the 0.91 points the 10-year added over a year, almost all of it is the price of real money rather than inflation fear, and the Fed is following that rather than causing it. 5:04 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode - Lending after inflation now pays what it paid in November 2008. Bearish long-dated Treasuries. - Bitcoin has traded with gold rather than the Nasdaq for 52 sessions. Bearish bitcoin into late November. - The market has already paid for a hike on Wednesday. Neutral on the decision itself. Also in this morning’s edition, not in the episode - Nobody is pricing the Fed to lose control of inflation. Neutral, and the unanchoring case is the thing this rules out. - Gold and long bonds are what expensive real money has already cost. Bearish gold while the real yield holds above 2.20%. - Short-dated Treasuries are nowhere near where hiking cycles stop. Bearish short-dated Treasuries. - A hold is the live tail, and it is the only branch that moves anything here. Neutral on the decision. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2026-09-15 Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    2.60%: real money costs the most since 2008

  4. 3d ago

    33%: a fast ten-year raises the odds of a 5% stock fall

    The ten-year touched 4.99% on Monday and the number itself is worth nothing. What the record prices is how fast it got there. 5:02 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode - A fast climb in the ten-year raises the odds of a 5% fall in the S&P. Bearish the S&P on risk. - Overnight funding is calmer into this tax date than any September SOFR has measured. Bullish funding into the corporate tax date and the Fed decision. - Aave’s dollar suppliers on Monad can reach ten cents of every dollar they think they hold. Bearish exit room. Also in this morning’s edition, not in the episode - September’s weak week is the one after expiry, and it opens on Friday. Bearish the S&P into 25 September. - Wednesday’s hike is priced, and the announcement has never been worth trading. Neutral on Wednesday. - Filecoin’s 14 October cliff removes a stream worth six hundredths of a percent of daily volume. Neutral FIL through the cliff. On the ledger this morning - Copper’s London cash settlement finished lower on Monday, so the mid-August call landed. - The crypto market-structure bill drew no floor action before its Senate clock ran out on Monday, so that one landed too. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2026-09-14 Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    33%: a fast ten-year raises the odds of a 5% stock fall

  5. 5d ago

    45%: one holder wrote nearly half the insider buying

    Strip out the grants and the tax withholding and four in five companies whose insiders filed anything at all bought none of their own stock; officers and directors sold 17 dollars for every one they bought. 5:04 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode - Four in five companies with a Form 4 on file had no insider buying. Neutral on US equities from this tape. - Oil volatility is at its widest against stocks in years, and the sample cannot say which way. No call on WTI. - Symbiosis lost seven dollars of deposits for every dollar taken. Neutral on Symbiosis. - Robinhood can rewrite what a stock token stands for, and the chain gets no notice. Neutral on the tokens and fragile for anyone lending against them onchain. Also in this morning’s edition, not in the episode - two thirds of the UNI burn now comes from one broker’s chain. Neutral on UNI. - Harmony went 646 days with no governance vote, then switched the chain off. Neutral on ONE and fragile for anyone under the floor. On the ledger this morning - Monday’s ledger marks a miss: we called bitcoin’s month flat and it rose about 24%. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2026-09-13 Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    45%: one holder wrote nearly half the insider buying

  6. 6d ago

    $2.89: the Treasury leg inside a $2.24 fall in junk bonds

    Anyone selling junk bonds on a credit view is selling 3.09 years of duration. The fund’s own year says credit risk got cheaper, not dearer. 5:06 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode - The 52-week low in junk bonds came from the Treasury leg. No direction on HYG, and there is no credit warning in that low. - XRP’s big up days have been followed by a weaker three months. Bearish XRP over two months on any day it closes 5% or more higher. - The heaviest stock-comp payers spent billions on buybacks and retired almost nothing. No direction on any single name, and the record buyback year is mispriced as a float number. - Bitcoin’s Fed-hike trade does not qualify on Wednesday. No call on bitcoin into Wednesday. Also in this morning’s edition, not in the episode - Crude is worth 34.6 times gas, and the gas trade is a choice of trigger. No call on natural gas, in either direction. On the ledger this morning - Nothing was graded on Saturday or Sunday, and 5 calls came off the board without ever firing, which is the set-aside column we publish next to the record. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2026-09-12 Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    $2.89: the Treasury leg inside a $2.24 fall in junk bonds

  7. 6d ago

    70%: more tariffs, 1.3% more kept

    Treasury handed back $125.2bn of customs duties this fiscal year, and that is where the tariff windfall went. 5:02 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode - The tariff take peaked on 30 April and the deficit is flat year on year. Bearish US fiscal. - Every point on the Treasury curve sits above what the maturing debt pays. Bearish the interest line. - Gold’s oil-shock bid is failing, and four of the five failures are 2026. Bearish GLD into the 16 September Fed meeting. - Three down days near the highs take nothing off the S&P’s risk. Neutral on the S&P over 21 sessions. Also in this morning’s edition, not in the episode - August core CPI reaccelerated, and that has carried forward one month in four. Neutral on the September core print. - Most of the CPI-day volatility crush would have happened on any other day. Bearish the VIX into the next CPI release, with the payout limit attached. On the ledger this morning - Two calls reached their horizon on Saturday and neither could be scored; both stay on the page as set aside. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2026-09-11 Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    70%: more tariffs, 1.3% more kept

  8. Sep 11

    0.00%: the dividend market that cannot see a dividend

    Pfizer pays 6.2% a year and the on-chain market built to trade that payment quotes it at nothing. 4:52 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode - Pfizer’s dividend market reports zero and Nvidia’s reports 24%. Bearish the yield tokens on both Robinhood Chain stock markets. - Liquid’s restart put 4,006.81 BTC of completed exits back on its books. Bearish L-BTC for anyone who needs out. - Bitcoin has spent most of its life this far below its own high. Neutral on bitcoin. Also in this morning’s edition, not in the episode - Commodities are cheap against stocks, and cheap has stayed cheap. Bearish commodities against stocks on the producer price ratio, the only construction where the event is live. - Nothing on the CME perpetuals calendar decides whether the contract is lawful. Neutral on the perpetuals question. - Two thirds of the USDC leaving Noble belongs to dYdX and the rest belongs to nobody. Bearish the tail. On the ledger this morning - The 12 August dollar-yen call resolved Friday as a miss, with the rate 3.4% the wrong way. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/pfizer-pays-62-and-its-pendle-market Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    0.00%: the dividend market that cannot see a dividend
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About

Five or six numbers each morning. Base rate, horizon, and the misses published. The Daily Digits is a free crypto and macro podcast: falsifiable market calls with a base rate, a time horizon, and a line that would kill the view. We mark hits and misses when they resolve. Every episode points back to the full morning edition with charts and workings at thedailydigits.com. thedailydigits.com

Information

  • Creator
    The Daily Digits
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    22
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © The Daily Digits
  • Show Website
    The Daily Digits