The Data Minute

Carta

Join Carta's Head of Insights, Peter Walker, as he breaks down the data that's fueling today's most fascinating trends in startups, VC, and the private market ecosystem. Featuring guests from across the venture industry — from founders to investors, and everyone in between — each new Data Minute is a bite-sized breakdown of the metrics, patterns, and important insights you need to navigate the ever-changing world of startups.

  1. 6d ago

    The Seed Existential Crisis | Rob Go, Founding Partner, NextView Ventures

    Is seed investing facing an existential crisis? This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Rob Go, Founding Partner at NextView Ventures, to discuss the structural shifts making the "game on the field" harder than ever for early-stage investors. Rob explains why many successful seed VCs are exiting the industry and how the rise of mega-funds and massive accelerators like YC has squeezed traditional seed firms into a narrow "subset" of the market. They dive into the "feeder fund" phenomenon, the arbitrary nature of ownership mandates, and why the $1B–$3B exit range has become a "Death Valley" for startups. Despite the current angst, Rob shares his optimistic "bull case" for 2030, explaining why diminishing competition and a rotation away from late-stage consensus will lead to a healthier venture substrate in the years to come. Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/ Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/ Chapters: 00:20 – Intro: Rob Go and the Seed Existential Crisis 02:16 – Defining Seed: Betting on anything before PMF 03:35 – Why senior seed VCs are exiting the industry 05:02 – The Squeeze: Mega-funds vs. Accelerators 07:02 – Scarcity vs. Abundance: What’s left for seed funds? 08:44 – The "Feeder Fund" trap and the factory supply chain 12:38 – The risk of taking seed money from a mega-fund 13:34 – Breaking down the 4 styles of seed investing 15:20 – Why specialist seed funds can be transient 19:29 – Super Compounders: Will exits keep getting bigger? 21:59 – The "Death Valley" of $1B–$3B exits 25:08 – The Blumhouse equivalent for venture capital 27:18 – Normalizing secondaries as an exit strategy 33:53 – Rant: Why ownership targets are backwards 39:04 – Offensive vs. Defensive bridge rounds 45:07 – "I've become way more Zen": Why the 2030 outlook is bullish 50:18 – Outro This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

    51 min

  2. May 14

    The Venture Debt Masterclass | Marshall Hawks, Author, Venture Debt Deals

    There is a long-standing stigma in venture capital that debt is a "company killer." This week on The Data Minute, Peter Walker sits down with Marshall Hawks, former SVB expert and author of “Venture Debt Deals,” to debunk the myths and explain why debt is often the smartest addition to a founder’s equity mix. Marshall breaks down the tactical reality of how these deals actually get done, from the "sniff test" lenders perform during office visits to the critical differences between venture banks and private credit funds. He explains how founders can use debt to survive 15-year exit timelines while minimizing dilution, and shares the specific red flags that indicate a startup is becoming over-leveraged. Plus, Marshall offers a rare look at the "workout groups" that step in when things go wrong and explains why a company's General Counsel might not be the right person to lead a debt negotiation. Whether you are an early-stage founder or a late-stage operator, this episode is a definitive guide to capitalizing your business in a shifting market. Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/ Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/ Chapters: 00:16 – Intro: Marshall Hawks and the Venture Debt stigma 01:10 – Why Marshall wrote "Venture Debt Deals" 03:26 – Addressing the Paul Graham view: Is debt dangerous? 06:40 – When (and when NOT) to touch venture debt 09:14 – The "Insurance" Play: Why many founders never draw the capital 10:48 – Venture Banks vs. Private Credit Funds 13:00 – Understanding draw periods and interest-only terms 17:34 – Why your lender wants to visit your office (The Sniff Test) 22:28 – The market after March 2023: Life after SVB 26:09 – The "Workout Group": What happens when things go sideways?  30:31 – Green flags: How to diligence your lending partner 33:50 – The legal process: Why GC’s need outside support 37:13 – Hidden costs: Why the company pays everyone’s legal fees 42:31 – Using debt to survive 15-year exit timelines 44:49 – Red flags: Debt service vs. opex ratios 48:06 – Final advice: Fundraising is not success This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

    49 min

  3. May 2

    Live from Chase Center: The Future of Private Markets | Salil Deshpande, Amit Patel, Vignesh Ravikumar, & Corey Goodman

    Live from the Chase Center in San Francisco, Peter gathers four leading venture investors to discuss the shifting landscape of private markets. This special episode features Salil Deshpande (Uncorrelated Ventures), Amit Patel (Owl Ventures), Vignesh Ravikumar (Sierra Ventures), and Corey Goodman, PhD (venBio Partners). The episode covers why gross margins have become the most critical metric for AI model companies and how the rise of secondary markets is challenging the traditional ten-year fund structure. They explore the new "efficiency benchmarks" for startups, where founders are expected to reach milestones faster with significantly less capital and headcount. We also dig into the reality of AI in biotech, the "Nvidia problem" regarding value capture, and why massive fund sizes often lead to a regression to the mean. Plus, the guests share the data points they wish they had, from true product retention to the complex inner workings of human biology. Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/ Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/ Chapters: 00:30 – Salil Deshpande: AI gross margins and value creation 01:29 – Why the rate of AI improvement is still increasing 02:02 – Secondary markets and the end of the 10+2 model 03:28 – How massive fund sizes impact price discipline 04:40 – Amit A. Patel: The shift in efficiency benchmarks 06:17 – Personalized learning and AI’s impact on education 08:00 – Justifying longer exit timelines with larger outcomes 09:47 – Matching capital deployment to fund strategy 11:42 – Vignesh Ravikumar: Building in the hyperscale era 13:00 – Capturing value outside of the model layer 13:41 – Fund size as a driver of conviction and ownership 14:50 – The unknown data on AI product retention 15:13 – Corey Goodman, PhD: Turning science into medicine 16:11 – Why AI is overhyped in the world of biology 17:50 – Why the 10-year model still works for biotech 19:27 – Why mega funds regress to the mean in life sciences This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

    22 min

  4. Feb 12

    Is "2 and 20" Still the Standard? | Hamza Shad, Carta Insights Team

    In this special deep dive episode, Peter is joined by his Carta Insights colleague Hamza Shad to unpack the operational reality of running a venture fund. They leave behind portfolio performance metrics to focus entirely on the business of the fund itself. Peter and Hamza break down the data from Carta’s inaugural Fund Economics report. They analyze how much capital GPs are actually committing to their own funds, why anchor LPs are taking larger stakes, and whether the industry standard "2 and 20" fee structure is actually holding up. They also discuss the hidden costs of fund operations, from legal fees to audits, and why the 2022 vintage is deploying capital slower than its predecessors. Plus, they answer audience questions on recycling capital, managing lines of credit, and why marking up SAFEs on SAFEs is a red flag for LPs. Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/ Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/ Chapters: 00:00 – Intro: The business of the fund 02:30 – GP Commit: How much skin in the game? 04:40 – Why PE managers commit more than VCs 05:58 – The rise of the Anchor LP 10:38 – Capital Calls: Timelines and delays 15:30 – Why the 2022 vintage is deploying slowly 19:53 – Is "2 and 20" still the standard for fees? 23:00 – Carry benchmarks across fund sizes 25:40 – The rarity of preferred returns in VC 27:00 – Operating Expenses: Legal vs. Tax costs 28:58 – Why audits are becoming mandatory 31:33 – The danger of marking up SAFEs 33:22 – Managing Manco expenses 35:24 – Q&A: When to call capital 41:35 – Q&A: Valuation methodology and stale marks 44:18 – Q&A: Secondaries and recycling capital 47:58 – Q&A: Thesis drift 49:28 – Outro This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

    51 min

  5. Jan 22

    Why VCs Should Be Pirates | Arian Ghashghai, Founding Partner, Earthling VC

    This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Arian Ghashghai, Founding Partner at Earthling VC, to discuss his thesis of investing in "weird stuff early." Arian explains why he bets on robotic oyster farms, virtual reality, and ocean exploration when other investors are chasing the latest consensus trends. He breaks down his "pirate ship" approach to venture capital and why being the first check is often more valuable to a founder than being the "most helpful." They also discuss the current state of the VC market and why Arian believes many funds have shifted from true long-term investing to short-term trading. Plus, Arian shares his unfiltered advice on raising from LPs, why he ignores "signaling risk" from big funds, and why Zurich might have a higher talent density than San Francisco. Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/ Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/ Chapters: 00:00 – Intro: Investing in weird stuff 02:07 – Intro to Earthling VC 02:47 – The "weird stuff early" thesis 03:57 – Who are the LPs backing weird tech? 05:47 – Why VR is a polarizing investment 08:55 – The value of transparency with LPs 10:49 – Case study: Robotic oyster farms 14:36 – Do LPs push back on style drift? 16:06 – Why keep the fund size small? 18:50 – Portfolio construction: Diversified vs. Concentrated 19:56 – Fundraising advice: Find alignment, don't convince 25:46 – Can a solo GP really support 50 companies? 28:42 – The three types of investors: Biggest, First, Helpful 30:50 – Speed as a competitive advantage 33:03 – Why Safe caps are just demand-driven prices 34:11 – The cynicism of modern venture capital 38:02 – Are VCs investing or just trading? 41:31 – Do we need more VCs? 46:41 – Avoiding consensus deal flow 48:17 – Why Zurich is an underrated tech hub 50:50 – Why founders love explicit investors This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

    53 min

  6. Jan 8

    2026 Market Outlook | Ashley Neville, Carta Insights Team

    Welcome to 2026. In this special New Year’s episode of The Data Minute, Peter sits down with his colleague Ashley Neville from Carta’s Insights Team to dissect the data that defined 2025 and forecast the trends shaping the year ahead. Ashley and Peter analyze the "haves and have nots" market where AI startups command a 40% valuation premium over their peers. They explain why solo founders now account for over a third of all new companies and how capital constraints are driving this shift. They also break down the changing landscape for startup employees, including why equity packages have dropped by 50% and why many departing workers are choosing not to exercise their options. Plus, they discuss the liquidity pressure facing VCs, the "Nvidia problem" for LPs, and what founders need to understand about the Safe market in 2026. Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/ Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/ Chapters: 01:14 – Ashley Neville joins the show  02:18 – Fundraising: A market of "Haves and Have Nots" 03:47 – The 40% AI valuation premium 06:00 – Why the bar for media coverage has skyrocketed 07:34 – The surge of the Solo Founder (30% to 36%) 10:00 – The concentration of startups in SF and SaaS 11:17 – The new hiring reality: 10% leaner teams 13:34 – Why employee equity packages are down 50% 15:20 – Why employees are leaving options on the table 18:43 – The "First Employee" equity bump 21:10 – The need for better equity education 24:02 – The liquidity crisis: IPOs vs. Staying Private 28:05 – LP Psychology: Why invest in VC when you have Nvidia? 29:39 – Companies staying private for 16-18 years 32:10 – Fund Economics: VC vs. PE personal capital 36:20 – The most common founder questions (Safes & Dilution) 38:52 – Outro This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

    39 min

  7. 12/18/2025

    The AI-First VC | Ben Orthlieb, Founding Partner, Blue Moon VC

    This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Ben Orthlieb, Founding Partner at Blue Moon VC, for a look under the hood of a firm that has completely re-engineered the venture capital process using AI. Ben explains how Blue Moon uses a proprietary tech stack to source over 12,000 teams a year and screen them down to the top 5% based on their probability of graduating to Series B, achieving performance metrics that rival top-tier firms without the massive headcount. He breaks down why the "warm intro" is obsolete, how sending AI-generated dossiers to founders results in a 75% meeting acceptance rate, and why human judgment is still the final decision-maker. They also discuss the "hollowing middle" of the venture market, why multi-billion dollar funds struggle to innovate their own workflows, and how a small check strategy allows Blue Moon to cooperate, rather than compete, with the biggest names in the industry. Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/ Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/ Chapters 00:00 – Intro: The AI-first VC 01:27 – Blue Moon's thesis: Coverage and Winning 03:11 – How to source 12,000 teams a year without a network 05:40 – "Machine learning instinct": Optimizing for Series B graduation 07:44 – Backtesting the algorithm against top 50 Seed firms 10:12 – The 75% meeting conversion rate (and why cold email works) 12:30 – The "AI Dossier": Showing founders you did the work 14:13 – Finding outliers outside the "Credibility Pool" (The Mercor story) 16:05 – The investment process: Where AI ends and humans begin 18:43 – Does it matter who else is on the cap table? 23:36 – The "Small Check" advantage in winning allocation 25:22 – How to interview for resilience 30:20 – Why personal questions are a competitive advantage 32:31 – Follow-ons, reserves, and systematic secondaries 36:00 – Why haven't big funds copied this strategy yet? 39:54 – The "hollowing middle" of the VC market 44:40 – Why brand is the only defense against noise 49:20 – Do warm intros actually result in better investments? 52:46 – The future of the "Operator-VC" model 56:00 – What LPs really think about an AI-driven fund 59:07 – Outro This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

    1h 1m

  8. 12/11/2025

    The Solo Founder Era | Julian Weisser, Co-founder, ODF & solofounders.com

    Is the "co-founder mandate" dead? This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Julian Weisser, co-founder of ODF and solofounders.com, to unpack the data behind a massive shift in the startup ecosystem: solo founders now make up over a third of all new companies. Julian breaks down the "Denominator Delusion"—the survivorship bias that tricks founders into forcing partnerships that often fail. They discuss why co-founder breakups are the silent killer of early-stage startups, the structural advantages of going it alone (including a 30-40% equity buffer), and why "authorship" matters just as much as ownership in the early days. Plus: Why founding a company has become too "high status," how AI is unlocking the solo path, and why the best investors are finally changing their tune on single-founder startups. Read the full "State of the Solo Founder" report: https://carta.com/data/solo-founders-report/ Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/ Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/ Chapters: 00:00 – Intro: The rise of the solo founder 01:15 – Welcome Julian Weisser 02:00 – Challenging the co-founder default 04:31 – The "Denominator Delusion" 06:20 – Why VCs talk themselves out of solo founders 08:32 – Is AI the ultimate unlock for solo builders? 10:30 – The hidden frequency of co-founder breakups 13:15 – When interpersonal misalignment destroys a company 15:04 – Can you add a co-founder two years in? 17:52 – Is being a founder too "high status" now? 21:28 – The difference between serious founders and "tourists" 24:13 – Deep Dive: The State of the Solo Founder Report 26:46 – Chart 1: Over 1/3 of startups are now solo 28:30 – Changing investor minds: A story from the Midas List 30:56 – How solo founders hire and build teams differently 34:22 – The equity advantage: Why solos exit with more ownership 36:33 – "Authorship" vs. Ownership  38:12 – Outro This presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only.  This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

    39 min
See All (39)

5
out of 5
34 Ratings

About

Join Carta's Head of Insights, Peter Walker, as he breaks down the data that's fueling today's most fascinating trends in startups, VC, and the private market ecosystem. Featuring guests from across the venture industry — from founders to investors, and everyone in between — each new Data Minute is a bite-sized breakdown of the metrics, patterns, and important insights you need to navigate the ever-changing world of startups.

Information

  • Creator
    Carta
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    39
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The Data Minute
  • Show Website
    The Data Minute

You Might Also Like