The Dividend Cafe

The Bahnsen Group
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The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

  1. 4H AGO

    The Five Major Issues for Investors So Far in 2026

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40tWZg8 David Bahnsen reviews an eventful mid-March 2026 market backdrop through five themes: the Iran war and its impact on oil and volatility; the state of the economy after tariff changes; private credit; AI; and a rotation in market leadership. He notes large daily market swings driven by uncertainty, but limited net movement, and argues volatility is largely immaterial for disciplined investors. The key economic risk is disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as insurers and shippers avoid the waterway, lifting oil from the low 80s toward the 90s and potentially above 100, which would meaningfully compress consumer and investment activity if sustained. He sees evidence of economic drag (weaker GDP revisions, modest job growth) alongside tariff-driven goods inflation offsetting services disinflation. He criticizes conflating private-credit default fears with liquidity issues and stresses idiosyncratic underwriting, recovery rates, and coming opportunity. He attributes AI weakness to valuation and fatigue while warning against treating the theme as monolithic. He highlights a rotation toward energy, utilities, staples, and industrials. 00:00 Friday Dividend Cafe Intro 01:07 Five Big Market Themes 02:25 Iran War and Volatility 04:19 Oil Shock and Strait Risk 07:45 Economy After Tariffs 10:02 Private Credit Fears 12:40 AI Valuations and Fatigue 14:34 Market Rotation Winners 15:27 Chart of the Week and Wrap Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    18 min

  2. 1D AGO

    Wednesday - March 11, 2026

    On March 11 from West Palm Beach, Brian Szytel reports a mostly negative but relatively benign market day amid volatility tied to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and surging energy prices (Brent ~$92.77, WTI ~$88.29). February CPI came in as expected: headline +0.3% and core +0.2%, with year-over-year headline 2.4% and core 2.5%; he notes current oil moves could have lifted year-over-year inflation to ~2.8–2.9%, though de-escalation or large IEA releases could offset. He highlights shelter’s lagging but cooling impact (rent measures up just 0.1–0.2%), important given shelter’s 35% CPI weight versus energy’s 7%. He discusses a new Fed chair in May aiming to cut short rates while shrinking the balance sheet, arguing productivity gains from AI and weaker labor data support easing. He also answers that TBG charges no extra external fees for alternative funds beyond internal fund expenses. 00:00 Market Recap and Volatility 00:44 Energy Prices and CPI Print 01:30 Oil Shock Scenarios and Offsets 02:34 Shelter Inflation Finally Cools 03:35 New Fed Chair and Rate Path 05:00 Alternative Funds Fees Explained 06:35 Wrap Up and Next Update Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    9 min

  3. 2D AGO

    Tuesday - March 10, 2026

    Brian Szytel from Dividend Cafe (Tuesday, March 10) recaps a mixed market day that started higher on optimism from comments that the war would end soon, then faded to flat after reports of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz amid intensified Middle East conflict. He notes modest economic releases: the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 98.8 (near historical average) and February existing home sales above expectations at over 4 million, suggesting some housing thaw as rates ease. He explains the Strait’s global importance (about 20% of oil/LNG and 30% of helium) and estimates a ~0.4% GDP impact if disruptions persist, contributing to higher long rates and a steepening yield curve. He advises against timing volatility and discusses defense contractors, emphasizing fundamentals and the ability of large firms to develop or acquire new technologies. 00:00 Market Open And Headlines 00:48 Economic Data Check In 01:27 Strait Of Hormuz Stakes 02:18 Rates And Yield Curve 02:51 Staying Invested Through Volatility 03:19 Defense Stocks And Cheap Weapons 04:50 How We Invest In Defense 05:16 Wrap Up And Q And A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    7 min

  4. 3D AGO

    Monday - March 9, 2026

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lfOy1s The episode reviews continued heightened, two-way intraday market volatility tied to the Iran military operation, highlighted by a Dow swing from sharply down to closing up over 200 points and oil’s brief spike near $115 before falling back to about $83–$84 after comments that the war may be nearly over. David argues these violent moves reflect short-term trading, hedging, and speculation, and advises long-term investors to avoid reacting. He notes the 10-year yield fell to about 4.1%, technology led while financials lagged, and last week’s index declines were modest despite some weak breadth. He discusses oil and VIX backwardation, shipping/insurance uncertainties in the Strait, debate over targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, and risks of bad policy if oil rises. Bahnsen also cites a “horrific” jobs report with unemployment at 4.4% and significant job losses and revisions, and previews CPI Wednesday. 00:00 Volatility Backdrop 00:54 Wild Market Reversal 01:47 Oil Spike Explained 04:10 Ignore The Noise 04:31 Rates Sectors Breadth 06:18 Backwardation Signals 07:42 War Timeline Shipping 09:57 Policy Risks Oil 10:42 Jobs Report Shock 12:33 Energy CPI Outlook 13:35 Wrap Up Stand Pat Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    16 min

  5. MAR 6

    Iran, Oil, and Markets

    Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46HCMXH From Nashville, Dividend Cafe host David Bahnsen discusses investor implications of the U.S. military operation that began in Iran, emphasizing the discomfort of analyzing markets amid potential casualties. He notes the Dow is down about 3% on the week but highlights extreme intraday volatility as a sign of uncertainty rather than news-driven moves. Bahnsen argues the key market driver is oil: WTI has surged into the 90s, up over 32% in a week, while futures show backwardation implying a temporary shock. He cites knock-on effects including higher shipping costs, sidelined container ships in the Persian Gulf, and aluminum at four-year highs. Political ramifications could affect markets via midterm outcomes. He advises investors not to change asset allocation or trade the “fog of war,” expecting volatility to persist while focusing on long-term dividend compounding. 00:00 Welcome From Nashville 01:01 War And Investor Lens 02:54 Market Drop Versus Volatility 06:45 Fog Of War Uncertainty 09:24 Oil Shock And Backwardation 11:26 Shipping Metals And Gas 15:09 Political Ripple Effects 18:16 What Investors Should Do 20:04 Closing Thoughts And Prayer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    22 min

  6. MAR 5

    Thursday - March 5, 2026

    Brian Szytel recaps a volatile market day with a broad selloff: the Dow fell 784 points after being down over 1,100 intraday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined modestly, with tech relatively stronger on AI-related earnings. Despite headlines tied to Iran, he notes markets are only slightly down overall and still focused on positive economic fundamentals. He highlights supportive data: initial jobless claims met expectations at 213, import prices rose less than expected, and productivity surged to 2.8% versus 1.8% expected (with prior quarter revised higher), though labor costs also rose 2.8%. He discusses whether AI may be contributing to productivity gains but wants more quarters of evidence. Addressing questions about Iran and U.S. debt, he contrasts it with Afghanistan’s 20-year, $2T ground war, emphasizes oil risk via the Strait of Hormuz, and says dollar impact depends on unknowns. 00:00 Market Volatility Recap 01:05 Staying Invested Amid Geopolitics 01:21 Economic Data Three Signals 01:54 AI And Productivity Debate 03:16 Client Question War And Debt 03:37 Afghanistan Comparison Costs 04:19 Oil Shock And Dollar Impact 05:17 Closing Thoughts And Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    7 min

  7. MAR 4

    Wednesday - March 4, 2026

    Brian Szytel recaps a rebound day in markets with broad gains (Dow +238, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.3%) amid headline-driven volatility tied to Iran and renewed tariff discussion. He notes Secretary Bessent’s comments on Section 122 potentially moving tariffs from 10% to 15%, which would still mean $65–$70B less in taxes than under IEPA, helping especially smaller and mid-sized businesses. Key market watchpoints are oil and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and bond yields, which rose with higher energy and inflation expectations rather than signaling a flight to safety; the 10-year is around 4.07%. He reiterates a midterm outlook of Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate. Economic data were strong, led by ISM services at 56.1, alongside services PMI at 51.7 and ADP private payrolls at 63K. He also addresses software stocks, viewing AI-driven selloffs as selective opportunity with potential margin benefits. 00:00 Market Rebound Recap 00:42 Tariffs Back in Focus 01:45 Iran Risks and Oil 02:41 Volatility and Bond Yields 03:49 Midterm Politics Update 04:27 Economic Data Rundown 05:33 AI and Software Stocks 06:47 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    9 min

  8. MAR 3

    Tuesday - March 3, 2026

    On Tuesday, March 3, Brian Szytel reports a volatile session where the Dow opened down about 850 points, fell as much as 1,200, and recovered to close down about 400, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down about 1% and moving more in unison; the 10-year yield rose only 1 bp after being up over 6 bps earlier. Markets reacted to fears around a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly lifted oil over 9% before closing up 2.8%, and to U.S. assurances of tanker insurance/protection that eased inflation expectations; TIPS breakevens jumped about 20 bps. He notes LNG is cut off to most Middle East countries and export transportation is down 20%, with U.S. gas about 40% cheaper than Europe/Asia. He previews key week data (ADP, PMI/ISM services, Beige Book, claims, productivity, and the employment report) and answers an AI question: U.S. power upgrades are “when, not if” despite regulatory delays and natural-gas advantages, while China faces chip export controls; U.S.–China AI partnership is unlikely due to national security concerns. 00:00 Market Selloff Recap 00:36 Strait Tensions and Oil Spike 02:03 Energy Supply Disruptions 02:27 War Headlines and Market Context 03:16 Inflation Breakevens and TIPS 03:32 Staying Calm in Volatility 04:12 Week Ahead Economic Data 04:52 Ask TBG AI and Energy 05:24 US Power Buildout Outlook 06:33 China Chips and DeepSeek Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

    9 min
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About

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

Information

  • Creator
    The Bahnsen Group
  • Years Active
    2016 - 2026
  • Episodes
    1.3K
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © All rights reserved @2024
  • Show Website
    The Dividend Cafe

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