The Grumpy Strategists Strategic Analysis Australia

Michael Shoebridge talks with Paddy Gregg, CEO of Austal, about the company's history as a builder of commercial and military vessels for decades now. We discuss its stocked up order book both here & in the US, and the future, including Australia's general purpose frigates. Austal USA is making command modules for US Virginia Class submarines and is the biggest revenue earner for Austal, while at Henderson, Austal is ramping up fast with landing craft orders. Hanwha's bid is covered, with Paddy giving his perspective as the CEO of a publicly-listed company.

In Episode 18, the Grumpy Strategists look at the challenges, contradictions and half truths the numbers in the 2024 Defence Budget reveal. The headline early $5.7 billion turns out not to turn up until mid-2027. Plans for acquisition are likely to fail because of unachievable targets, and the workforce crisis is worsening - meaning Australia's military just won't have the people it needs to operate what it buys. The episode ends with analysis of AUKUS sub crewing plans revealed by a US official. Spoiler alert: the Collins subs look like having an early end & Australian submariners are being 'utterly and completely' integrated into 25 US subs well before 2032.

In Episode 17, Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge assess the foundations of defence minister Richard Marles' new National Defence Strategy, looking for clarity and focus that the welter of priorities, tasks and categories doesn't provide. Instead of Australia's military having 'impactful projection', the cuts to missile defence make Australia a likely victim of 'impactful reception'. It turns out the strategy's accompanying $330bn investment program is budget, not strategy, driven.

The Grumpy Strategists assess the state of public decision and policy making in Australia: the damaging path of 'profound' and "transformative' policies that aren't; the distracting symbolic political value of AUKUS, with numbers so large - $368 billion - they make other large decisions look trivial - and the now alarming gap between rhetoric and reality.

From a small sporting shooting goods supplier in 1973, NIOA Group has grown to be a major munitions and weapons supplier to Australia's military and law enforcement organisations. Robert Nioa talks with SAA's Michael Shoebridge about the last 28 years building an Australian prime with industrial heft. They discuss how Australia's strategic environment and new partnerships like AUKUS provide the direction to NIOA's business, along with its deepening commercial connections into the US and with capable Australian and international partners.

The Grumpy Strategists cover US budget cuts from 2 to 1 sub in its 2025 budget, the UK Parliament's report on the UK's failing nuclear reactor program, with Australia choosing this moment to give the UK $4.6bn for AUKUS sub design & nuclear reactors, the US delay into the 2040s to its SSN(X) sub - and the black comedy (for Australians) from the French sub Australia paid $4bn to develop but then cancelled winning the Dutch submarine competition.