The Judgment Call Podcast

The Judgment Call Podcast
  • 5.0 (46)
  • TECHNOLOGY
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

A podcast where we talk to risk takers, adventurers, travelers, entrepreneurs and simply mind bogglers.

Episodes

  1. 08/27/2021

    Maciej Wojtal (Should you invest into Iranian equities?)

    00:00:20 How Maciej got started with Amtelon Capital and why he chose Iran as a primary investment target? 00:05:33 Why is Iran like Russia (and Eastern Europe ) in the 1990s? Is there a catalyst for Iran making it back to be connected with the rest of the world? 00:14:25 A short story of sanctions against Iran. 00:26:06 How Iranians and the regime in Iran differ? Why is the regime so successful in controlling power? 00:32:32 What are great businesses to invest in Iran? 00:48:11 How Iran avoided the 'Dutch disease' of big commodity exporters. 00:56:08 Is Iran starting to be a new part of an 'Axis power'? Will this hamper the participation of outside investors in the Iranian market? Maciej Wojtal is the founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital which is focused on investing in Iranian equities. Maciej has worked with Citigroup and JP Morgan before running his own fund. Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply). Torsten Jacobi: Maciej, welcome to the Podcast. Thanks for coming on, really appreciate that. Maciej Wojtal: Yes, thank you for having me here. Torsten Jacobi: Hey, absolutely. You run something really interesting and you are the cofounder and the CIO of Amtalan Capital, which really focuses on investing primarily in equities in Iran, from what I understand. That sounds really cool, really unique. I have never heard about an investment fund out there that actually invests in Iran. How did that happen? How did you get started on why Iran? Why not something that's a little more politically correct, so to speak? Maciej Wojtal: Yes, well, it is super exciting. And when I speak to the local regulator in Iran, they tell us that we are their favorite foreign investor, foreign institutional investor, because we are the only one. There is really no other foreign institutional investor in Iran, so we are the only ones. So I decided to launch Amtalan Capital back in 2016, when JCPOA, the nuclear agreement, was implemented. And the reason why Iran and not something else was actually pretty simple. There was no other market. There's still there is still no other market at this moment in the world with lower evaluations, a higher growth potential, both like a long term structural growth potential, as well as near term growth that will be coming from the reopening of the country or reintegration of the country with the rest of the world. And to be honest, this is potentially the last opportunity of this size. So the type of opportunity, I mean, is a transformational opportunity. So country going from one situation, because it's not from one system to another, I don't expect any political, you know, revolution or transformation there. But the economic situation will change, will change from a, you know, decades of sanctions, where the economy was basically cut off from the rest of the world to the economy that is slowly opening up, catching up with the rest of emerging markets, with everything good that happened in the rest of the emerging markets over the last two decades. And on top of that, no one is there. So Americans cannot touch it. So all the big funds out there have to wait until the primary US sanctions are lifted. So suddenly you get, you get to go to a new market like this of this size and invest before the big US funds go there. It doesn't happen too often. And what I mean of this size, what I mean by this size is, you know, that's another unique thing is that you may have some frontier markets that you can get excited about because of demographics, you know, growth potential, whatever. But usually they have no capital markets. You can go and launch startups, build a factory, a bank, whatever. And here you already have pretty well developed capital markets, stock market with 600 companies. Right now it's around $250 billion market cap. Back in 2016, it was already $100 billion market cap. And right now several hundred million dollars turnover per day. And so, you know, big enough market to be attractive even for big investors. I mean, too big to ignore basically. And for us with a new fund, startup fund that wants to basically focus on this niche and do the initial fundraising and so on. Well, there was looked as an amazing setup with everything that we needed in place. So hence the decision. And, you know, the important thing is that I had no connections to Iran. So I actually had never met an Iranian in my life before my first visit to Tehran. So I had no bias. It wasn't the case that, you know, my, I don't know, half of my family was actually from Iran. So it was somehow convenient for me to focus on this market and maybe travel more, whatever. No, I was able to focus on any market out there. And Iran was just based on the risk reward that I saw there. Risk being obviously geopolitics, but it seemed to be at that time turning in, you know, with the more positive momentum and rewards coming from the lowest valuations in the world. And all this and all this growth potential look to me like, yeah, exactly like the best risk reward out there. Torsten Jacobi: Yeah. So it's either very gutsy or very crazy decision that you made a couple years back. I hope it's the former. One thing that I heard you talk about on another show is that you compared Iran right now to a post 1990s Russia. Eastern Germany that is very low earnings to valuation ratios. You had, where, yeah, just the climate where everyone had this this appreciation of change, appreciation of the future. Entrepreneurship was strong and was really grassroots. I will be seeing now in the U.S. where you need to be a $3 billion. No, it's something where we all fell. Then I was part of that in Eastern Germany, where we all fell. The future is kind of in our hands. I mean, they did this grassroots, massive collabs, grassroots entrepreneurship, as he describes it, what we are missing. And it really drove these in Eastern Europe really quickly into what a decent part of the European community where they are right now, rather than 10, 15 years. It happened really quickly. Why do you say Iran is at a similar precipice? And do you see any catalyst that it will very quickly, say the next 10 years, will be more like a normal Middle East country, which is, you know, the Middle Eastern countries all are, they have quite a bit of turmoil. At least some of them. We just talked about Syria and a couple of episodes ago. What do you think Iran is at a precipice? Maciej Wojtal: Yeah, look, so it is fair to compare it to Eastern Europe in the 90s. It's not the same. It's always different. But what I mean by that is that certain dynamics may be similar. So going from one system that is restricted in some way, in Eastern Europe, it was, you know, socialism slash communism, and this, people were entrepreneurial, but they were not free to really, to really, you know, do what they wanted to do. And then after 1989, all this unlocked. So in Eastern Europe after 1989, all this energy was unlocked, basically, and people started really wanted to work and they started chasing their dreams. And this, and you could see this entrepreneurial entrepreneurship in action. It was quite chaotic in the 90s. You know, I lived in the 90s in Poland, and it was chaos. I mean, there were, you know, institutions were not working properly. It was corrupt. Bureaucracy was a huge headache. It was absolutely a mess in many places. But it worked. And the pace of changes was amazing. So everything was very dynamic. So after 10 or 20 years, Poland changed completely. And the rest of Eastern Europe, it became much more stable, much more easy to forecast, but also hence much more institutionalized in every corner. But hence also the, you know, your expected return also much closer to the mean, let's say, to whatever from, I don't know, investing in real estate right now in Eastern Europe is similar to Western Europe, actually, in terms of your risk reward. So this is what I expect in Iran. A similar growth coming from people who are entrepreneurial and from foreign investment. Because look, the same, the same role as Eastern Europe played for Western Europe in the 90s, for Germany mainly, but also France, Italy, where Eastern Europe was basically a hub, a source of cheap labor, where it made total sense to locate your factories over there, take advantage of this cheap labor force, and then also be ready to benefit from the growing middle class that was showing up there like 10 or 20 years later. And suddenly it was, you know, it became an important consumer market. Same thing will happen in Iran. I mean, Iran, look, Iran is quite a big country. It's 84 million people. They have the largest oil and gas reserves combined, oil and gas reserves in the world. Plenty of zinc and zinc and copper resources as well. But the most important resource is the population, is the Iranian population. It's a well educated society with a median age of 30 years old, where I think it's not, it's unlike the rest of the Middle East. It's not very similar to other Middle Eastern countries. It's, you know, the sense of 5,000 years of history that they have is you can feel that. And this is what's been important for them generation after generation, so this focus on education and so on. So you have very skilled labor force, which because of the sanctions, is right now cheaper than in Vietnam. So, you know, the average salary is probably around $200 i

    1h 7m

  2. 08/27/2021

    Jared Dillian (From Lehman Brothers to 2021 - how did the financial industry change?)

    00:00:23 How did Jared's path from Lehman Brothers to Internet personality develop? 00:05:06 How did the finance industry develop during the last 20 years? 00:08:18 Jared's experience on writing a novel (and how it compares to his other book)? 00:11:29 What is Jared's view of the deflation/ inflation debate? 00:17:03 Is productivity growth really as low as we assume? What role do stock buybacks play? 00:22:01 Is individual risk taking the key to increase productivity growth? 00:25:01 What are great areas of investment according to Jared? 00:30:01 Will DeFi eradicate banks and most of the financial industry? 00:34:01 Is the banking industry a good indicator for the health and competitiveness of an economy? 00:38:36 How consistent should financial commentators be? Jared Dillian is the author of Street Freak: Money and Madness at Lehman Brothers, named one of the top business books of 2011 by Businessweek magazine. Jared runs The Daily Dirtnap, LLC, which provides daily market commentary and insight to a range of institutional clients. Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply).   Torsten Jacobi : Jared, thanks a lot for coming unto the Judgment Call Podcast, I really appreciate that. Jared Dillian: Yeah. Torsten Jacobi : Hey, thanks for taking the time. And you know, you have a really interesting history, and it's something that's becoming a bit of a theme though, is you started in an investment bank, and you worked for Lehman Brothers, then you wrote a book, you became an author, and now you're an internet personality, you run your own internet business, your own content business. Maybe you can tell us a little bit more about this transition, how this came upon, and how do you feel, was it the right choice looking back, or do you feel like, well, no, I want to go back to an investment bank? Jared Dillian : No, it was absolutely the right choice. It was funny because I was talking to my old boss at Lehman, this is the guy that I worked for 2001, 2002, and he told me a story of, you know, when I worked for him, we used to get the Garmin letter. I don't know if you know Dennis Garmin, but we used to get the Garmin letter at Lehman Brothers, and he had probably the biggest financial newsletter. It was a daily letter, and I used to get this stuff, and you know, I liked it. I didn't, you know, I didn't think his writing was the best, but I said, this is an amazing business. I was like, you can just get paid to write about finance, you know, I'd never heard of this before. So around 2003, you know, I had this idea in my head that I wanted to write a financial newsletter, so I had some ideas, and my initial idea was it would be sort of a retail newsletter. I would charge a very small amount of money, about $150 a year, and I would do personal finance stuff, and then I would do seminars and stuff like that. And I figured if I had 1,000 subscribers, I would make $150,000 a year, and that would be enough. And then what happened was, while I was at Lehman, I was put in charge of the ETF desk, and I was told to just grow the business, because the business was very small. They said grow the business, so my idea was to do that through writing. So I started writing market commentary and sending it out to people, and it was very popular, and it grew, and it grew, and it grew. So by the time the bankruptcy came around, I had several thousand people on my list, and I said, you know, I can easily monetize this, so the day the bankruptcy, I sent out a message. I said, I'm going to start a newsletter, and you know, hundreds of people said I'll sign up. So I quit Lehman Brothers, and I started the business, you know, I formed an LLC, and I got some office space, and about six weeks later, I started sending out content again, and I got a few hundred people to sign up, and that was the beginning of the newsletter. So that was in 2008, and about that time, I was also approached to write a book about my time at Lehman Brothers. There was a literary agent that found me and asked me to write a book about it, and initially I said no, but six months later, I came around and I said yes. So while the early days of writing the newsletter, I was writing this book, and that came out in 2011. So there's just been a bunch of stuff since then, I started writing from Alden Economics in 2014, I wrote another book in 2016, I'm an op ed columnist at Bloomberg, I've taught finance at the undergraduate level and graduate level at school, and I just, I know I had a radio show for the last two years, which is coming to an end tonight, but we're going to convert that into a podcast, and my goal is to make this the number one finance podcast. Torsten Jacobi : So that's really ambitious. Jared Dillian : Yeah, I mean, you're really all in on becoming not just an internet personality, but really making this content machine work, right? Torsten Jacobi : A lot of people, you know, from the VC business, they go into a Substack, right? Jared Dillian : That seems to be the technology platform to use, and also the idea that you pay a relatively small amount, and it's geared towards consumers. Torsten Jacobi : Is that still the model that you're using, or you switch to a B2B model, where you basically do it for hedge funds and other investment banks, small investment banks, from the office? I do both. You know, my customers, I have institutional customers, and I have retail customers. So in terms of substack, I don't use substack, I use a different proprietary system. You know, a substack takes 10% of revenue, so that's a little bit much for me. The nice thing about substack is that they do handle all the payments and stuff like that, so I do that myself now, which is a little bit time consuming. Torsten Jacobi : When you look back, do you feel like the world of finance has changed quite a bit, and thatt here's more knowledge, or people are more aware of what's going on out there, or do you think we're still looking into a similar perplexing environment, as it was 10 years ago? Jared Dillian : Well, I think more people are engaged in finance. But I would say that a lot of people have learned a lot of bad ideas and bad habits. The meme stocks are a pretty good example. I have a Coast Guard friend on Facebook who trades the meme stocks, he's always posting about AMC and stuff like that, and he says these words like I've never heard before. He talks about holding the line and ladder attack and stuff like that. I don't know what this is, but it's not finance. I don't know what you're doing, but this isn't the right way to learn things. So I formed this entity two years ago called Jared Dillion Money, and that was where the radio show came from. I did the radio show under Jared Dillion Money. This is a personal finance platform. So really teaching the basics, not just about investments, but also about debt and credit cards and mortgages and stuff like that. So that's what I've been doing for the past two years. Torsten Jacobi : Well, I think what a lot of people are looking for, and I think this is where the meme stocks came from, is this call option. Jared Dillian : So this is really high, is it beta? Torsten Jacobi : You want something that moves very much, even if the stock doesn't move so much. Jared Dillian : It's more of a big gambling, right? Torsten Jacobi : But gambling not in that sense that the hedge funds always win. It's something where you can actually, we have a weapon that works seemingly enough. We've seen this earlier this year, where you as a 20 year old have a big enough weapon. You can become a millionaire overnight, and the hedge funds give you that money. That's pretty rare, right? Jared Dillian : I don't remember many of those situations in the last 10 years, when it seemed like the hedge funds are at a disadvantage at least momentarily. Torsten Jacobi : No, I think that's a narrative that got put forth after the GameStop incident. Jared Dillian : I don't think, I mean, look, there were a couple of hedge funds that were harmed by that moving GameStop, but I can tell you that retail investors, if you're trading call options on GameStop through Robinhood, people are making money off of you. The market maker behind those trades is Citadel. They have some very sophisticated people who understand volatility, who know how to model a volatility surface, like, I mean, yes, like if you buy a call option on GameStop and it goes up very quickly, you'll make money, but you're at a huge disadvantage. Torsten Jacobi : So it isn't something you can actually win at least, I mean, the odds are definitely against you, right? Jared Dillian : This hasn't changed I think there was a short period of time about four or five months ago, six months ago, when you could win at it, but I think that window is closed. Torsten Jacobi : When you wrote two books by now, you wrote first something that is more of a description of what happened at Lehman, and then it's a novel that you wrote later on that is complete fiction, I assume. Was it harder to write a novel than the accounts that you gave for Lehman, or do you feel it's the same amount of effort? Jared Dillian : Oh, it was much harder t

    45 min

  3. 08/27/2021

    Stephen Clapham (How to spot a good investment - and a fraud!)

    00:00:33 How Stephen got started in the world of finance and what motivated him to write his latest book. 00:10:05 What is the basic premise of Stephen's analysis of financial statements (forensic accounting)? 00:21:01 What is the fine line between fraud and creative accounting? 00:27:22 What is Stephen's analysis of the Wirecard fraud? 00:32:27 How well do the current accounting standards actually work for provide transparency into profits/ losses of banks? 00:39:51 Where does all the printed money (from Central Banks) actually go? What is the best option to 'weather the current low growth environment'? 00:51:10 How 'money printing' at this huge scale seems to be deflationary instead of inflationary? Stephen Clapham is a retired hedge fund partner who now trains stock analysts at some of the world's largest and most successful institutional investors. Stephen is also the author of The Smart Money Method: How to pick stocks like a hedge fund pro and hosts his own podcast. Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply).     Stephen, thanks a lot for coming on the Judgment Call Podcast. I really appreciate it. Wow, thank you for having me. I'm looking forward to it. Hey, absolutely. I'm sorry about my improvised setup here today, but I hope you can still manage that. So you run a company called Behind the Balance Sheet and you also recently published a book that's called The Smart Money Method. And both I thought are really interesting and we want to dive a little deeper into both of the topics that you illuminate there. Maybe you can give us a very quick intro into how you got into the financial world in the first place and what inspired you to write the book and what's kind of the 30,000 feet view of what's in the book. Okay, so nothing inspired me to get into finance. It was purely accidental and serendipitous. I had accepted a job at a very senior level, one of the largest companies in the UK, where I was reporting to somebody that was reporting to the CFO, Finance Directorate. I was interviewed by the CFO for the job at a relatively young age and they gave me the job and they were delighted to have me and I accepted the role and they then called me up and they said, oh, we made a bit of a mistake because you're too young. You can't be this grade until next year and I said, well, what do you mean? And they said, well, you know, don't worry, only a little bit less money and there'll be a slightly fewer benefits and we'll make you up next year. And I said, well, I'm very sorry, but you know, as far as I'm concerned, we had a deal and I'm not allowing you to renege in that deal. If you have such a stupid philosophy that somebody has to be a certain age before they're qualified to do the job, then I suggest you go and look elsewhere because I'm not really interested in working for an organisation where merit doesn't overcome age. And I was recounting this tale and a friend of mine said, oh, well, that sounds a bit upsetting, but why don't you go into the city? And I said, well, don't be stupid. I don't know any of the cities for people with privileged backgrounds that won't suit me. And he said, well, no, I think you'll find that things are opening up and I said, well, how would I do that? Well, I don't know. How would I get? I don't even know where to start. And he said, well, I don't know either, but my secretary's husband, he works at a stockbroker and I bet you he'll see you and explain, you know, what sort of things you might be able to do. And I said, well, that'd be fantastic, so he called up his secretary at home and she said, oh, yeah, of course, he would be delighted to see Steve of Egan come in next Wednesday at 8.30. So next Wednesday at 8.30, I rock up to this stockbroking firm and this very nice chat Bob Carl spends half an hour telling me what it's like to be a research analyst. And I'm thinking, oh, man, that sounds like fun. And he says, well, why don't you come and work for us? And it was, you know, I hadn't gone there to get an interview, I'd gone there simply to learn and understand what the city was about. And I, you know, I went to work for him and it was a brilliant job. I really loved doing it, found it incredibly interesting, incredibly exciting. And I never really looked back. And so my career spanned the sell side where I was an analyst covering various sectors for many years, and I then was asked by one of my clients, a big hedge fund, if I would go and work for them. And I did that and I thought, oh, wow, this is even more fun because I'm doing the work that I really enjoy, which is, you know, researching companies. And I don't have to deal with a pesky clients because when you're an investment bank or you're on the sell side, there's a reason it's called a sell side because you have to sell to people. And although I really enjoy the relationships, the marketing part of it was, you know, a bit dull, you know, I mean, I remember one firm I worked for, you were given a big cardboard sheet every month and you did it all the days of the month and tick boxes and you had a list of clients you had to call and you had to make a hundred phone calls a month. Surely not anything to say, you know, I thought you shouldn't call people unless you had something interesting to say. Anyway, so I moved to the buy side and it was really an amazing journey, absolutely fantastic fun. And I then ended up setting up my training and research consultancy behind the balance sheet in 2018, the fund that I'd worked for, we decided to close it with the performance hadn't been very good and it really wasn't a lot, it really wasn't much fun coming in every morning at 7.15 and leaving at 7 o clock and not making any money and we decided to close it. I had assumed that I would just get another job, I found it more difficult because nobody wanted to employ an analyst aged 50. So I set up the consultancy and it's been fantastic fun and, you know, why did I set up the book? Well, I started the book because I've been doing all this training and I thought, well, maybe people would, you know, find the book helpful, I could write a book that was interesting and I had the basis of it and so the book was published in November last year and somewhat to my surprise it's been really very popular and, you know, loads of people have emailed me saying, oh, this is the book I wish I had when I was started in investing. Loads of people email me saying, oh, this is fantastic because we now understand what we should be doing. Some people email me saying, this is brilliant because you convinced me that I don't want to do my own investing because it sounds a bit difficult, but I've had all sorts of very positive feedback and the book, essentially, it's kind of got some of my actual real life experiences woven through it, but it's really a book about the process I developed as an analyst at very large hedge funds to research companies and so it's something like a how to guide, but it's a more practical how to guide. We don't really talk about any of the theory at all, we just go through how do you invest and how my process developed and how do I look at a company, so how do I start, how do I find an idea and then once I've found an idea, what do I do with it, how do I examine it, how do I explore it, how do I look at an industry, how do I look at a company and I then go through, I don't go through in great detail with the financials, you know, obviously I sell training courses which help people how to read a balance sheet and how to understand a set of accounts and that could be a whole book and I wanted the book to be something that anybody could pick up and that they wouldn't be turned off by it, that they wouldn't be put off because it was all about reading balance sheets, so we cover a bit about the balance sheets, we cover how to look at management and also stuff like how do you think about the macro, we put in, I finished writing it just as COVID started at peak, so I probably made June last year, I finished the book and I thought I really should put a paragraph or a chapter about COVID, started out as small and then I ended up doing a whole chapter on it which with the benefit of hindsight, I'm not sure that I should have included that, I think the book would have had a longer validity, a longer shelf life without it perhaps, but some of the points that I made there, initially they didn't look that smart because I had been talking quite a lot about the issues in supply chains because when COVID happened I felt that supply chains would get very stretched and it was interesting, you know, now I hadn't anticipated how long it would take for that to feed through into the system, but obviously there's huge supply chain pressures now. Yeah, I mean that's a whole other avenue we could talk about, but I love how positive you see your own career over the years and how you combine that part of that's what I love to do and obviously we know the financial industry pays really well and the interesting way you found your way into it, I think that's pretty unique, that's really awesome. I think one point that you're really famous for is being in forensic accountants, so looking into a company and just from their financials and whatever they have in their public reporting to see if this is a company that maybe makes things look a little bit too good to be true o

    1h 7m

  4. 07/21/2021

    Mike Green (The gravitational force of passive investing on capital allocation and geopolitics)

    00:00:31 How Mike researched and developed his theory of a market bubble in passive investing/ index investing? Are markets about information or transactions? 00:08:01 Is the bubble of investing just a (bigger) change of the NIFTY fifty or the NASDAQ bubble in the 2000's? 00:13:53 Does Mike's theory of passive investing predict higher volatility due to the changes in market structure? 00:19:22 Is our low productivity growth linked to inefficient capital allocation due to passive investing skewing investments? Is the Fed to blame for the asset bubbles? 00:26:57 Is the Fed's own forecast model broken now that markets follow a flow model much more than a valuation model? 00:31:01 Is our retirement model the problem or the solution? Is a future crash inevitable? Is the small enterprise dead forever? 00:39:13 How should contrarian investors position themselves? How committed can one be to an 'impending bubble'? 00:47:45 What is America's contribution to the world? Does China now have the better approach to capitalism? Can we ever come up with companies that do things cheap and better (instead of just better)? 00:55:05 Are societal changes solely to blame for changes in productivity growth? 01:01:01 Can longevity research (and the ability to live forever) change how the world will grow? 01:09:01 Should we always be 'smart investors' or is 'going with the crowd' often better? What are the dilemmas of the contrarian or cataclysmic investor? How do high profile investors deal with this? 01:21:10 What other bubbles does Mike see in today's market and how can retail investors trade against such a bubble formation (if they choose to do so)? 01:26:48 Will China start a hot war in Asia in the next 15 years? Will trade (and China's trading partners) matter? How is the chess board stacked towards such a war. What are China's incentives?   Mike Green has been a student of markets and market structure for nearly 30 years. Mike works with Simplify to create ETF products that give retail investors an edge. Before that Mike has worked with Logica Capital Advisers and Thiel Macro. You may watch this episode on Youtube - #100 Mike Green (The gravitational force of passive investing on capital allocation and geopolitics). Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply).   Torsten Jacobi: Mike, welcome to the Judgment Call podcast. Thanks for coming. We appreciate that. Mike Green: Thank you, Torsten. It's a pleasure to be here. Torsten Jacobi:  Hey, so your claim to fame is really the passive investment bubble, and you also recently joined Simplify, one of the most interesting ETF creators out there. My first question is for listeners out there who haven't heard of this particular bubble that you've been describing for a couple of years now, what are the core tenants of your thesis there, and what do you think is wrong with passive investment? Because a lot of us think of this as a very safe and potentially very lucrative investing stone. Mike Green: Well, I think this is one of the challenges that in terms of my theory and what I've observed about the market and how it's playing out is that for most investors, there's a natural attraction to being in a passive vehicle. Your objective is very much to just try to match the return of the market, and so it feels like it is the right choice, and you're seeking out lower fees, you're seeking out broad exposure, you're diversifying as you would expect, etc. And so it is a winning combination from the investor standpoint on an individual basis. The problem is, like many phenomenon, when you expand it and it becomes the dominant feature, it becomes a tragedy of the commons. And so the first place you have to start with passive investing is to understand that the basic theory behind it is predicated almost referred to as the efficient market hypothesis. And so the efficient market hypothesis was a theoretical construct that was created in the 1950s and 1960s, most closely associated with Eugene Fama. The idea is very straightforward. The prices in the market represent all of the information or the best estimate, the best intersection of information that exists across the market. And this is the idea that prices are set on a fundamental basis. So I as a single investor look at Microsoft, I make a forecast of the cash flows, I estimate what the future performance is going to be. I make some estimate in terms of what I expect it to be worth in the future, and then I compare that versus my cost to capital, discount that back to the present value and buy Microsoft. So the theory is that millions and millions, potentially billions of people doing this contribute to a market in which it is extraordinarily difficult to gain an information edge. And that's a really important component is that the expectation is that prices reflect information. There's an issue associated with that, which is that prices don't actually represent information, prices represent transactions. So when you look at a market, what you're actually seeing is not where the price is right now. It's where the last transaction happened. And it's a presumption that we're making that the next transaction is going to be close to that price. There are few events in history where we have seen that not be the case. The crash in 1987 would be a great example. The crash in 1929 would be a great example in the volatility space, the events of Allmageddon, February 5, 2018, where the next morning you woke up and the price of a security XIV had fallen 95%. We've seen this in a couple of different situations. That is a good indication of this phenomenon that it's not actually information, but it's transactions that are occurring. And once you recognize that that's happening, then you recognize that passive players violate the actual underlying philosophy of what a passive player is supposed to be. According to the work of Bill Sharp, which is used and cited for the rationale for why passive outperforms an aggregate, the idea is very straightforward. An active investor is one who transacts, who trades off the information. And a passive investor is simply one who holds all the securities in the market. The problem is that leaves no mechanism for how you get in the market or how you get out of the market. It's effectively a pure paper portfolio theory. If I were to track the market, which is what an index is designed to do, then I would meet that criteria. But the minute I begin to participate, I change the underlying structure. That's the flaw in the ointment, because now what we have is we've grown passive to the size, the passive investment strategies, the vanguards, black rocks, even the fidelity, Schwab's, etc., of the world who increasingly rely on S&P 500 indices or total market indices. They are every day in the market representing the lion's share of the net transactions, the buying that is occurring. And when that happens, you need to actually start to disaggregate and say, okay, what is the mechanism that these vehicles are trading off of? And they don't trade off of information. They trade off of flows. The rules for passive are incredibly simple. Did you give me cash if so, then buy? Did you ask for cash if so, then sell? Nowhere in there is there any information about the performance of an underlying security. And within the indices themselves, you also get an inversion of the traditional process of price formation. So one of the things that I did as I began to develop this theory was I went out and I surveyed active investors, people like myself, discretionary investors. And I asked them a very simple question. When you receive a new inflow or you receive an outflow, what is your propensity to invest given valuation? So a Schiller type valuation, zero times or one times earnings up to 100 times earnings, what's your propensity to invest or to sell stocks when you receive an instruction from your end investor? And what you found in that is as you would expect, the discretionary investor is more willing to sell at high prices or high valuations and less willing to sell at low valuations. They're more willing to buy at low valuations, less willing to buy at high valuations. When you run a system that is built on those rules, then it's a mean reverting system. As valuations rise, people become less willing to deploy capital, valuations retreat. Passive works in the exact opposite fashion. As valuations rise, the incremental marginal capital, because you're doing so on a market cap weighted basis. So how does something get to high market cap? It rose in price. If its price is not directly tied to the fundamentals, as is rising in price, its valuations are rising. And so you end up with the perverse dynamic where the market becomes very momentum weighted. Effectively, the dominant flow of capital is money coming in on a momentum weighted basis, which means that the largest companies receive incrementally more capital. The companies that have risen the most receive incrementally more capital. And those that are lagging behind really aren't receiving any significant marginal inflows. It gets even worse than that because as we begin to switch from the active managers, firing the active managers, discretionary managers, and replacing them with the index or passive managers, that signal becomes amplified. The value based or marginal forward retu

    1h 44m

  5. 07/19/2021

    Thaddeus 'the Catholic' (Pluralism, Liberalism, Postmodernism, Idolatry, World Government)

    00:01:00 How Thaddeus got into philosophy and theology in the first place? 00:05:45 How political pluralism should work? Is the US actually pluralistic? 00:12:23 Has liberalism built a super structure of metaethics on top of religions. Are religions (too) boxed in by the liberal structure? How has our consciousness already been changed by this structure? 00:19:13 Is the treatment of religions and reality comparable? How should philosophy deal with quantum physics? 00:30:03 What did postmodernism contribute to the current state of philosophy? 00:35:03 What did Friedrich Nietzsche really try to tell us in 'Thus Spoke Zarathustra'? How much of his depression should be attributed Christianity? 00:39:03 Why are so many people falling out with active Christianity? Is it connected to the different role of idolatry (the replacement of the divine) between the older Abrahamic religions and the New Testament? 00:45:02 What kind of love is the most fulfilling - self-centered or selfless? 00:51:02 How does Ayn Rand's philosophy (Objectivism) fit into the high regard that is given to selfless love by philosophers? Is altruism self love or selflessness? 00:53:01 Why do we have this endless potential of addiction? Is addiction a coping mechanism for reality? Does it help us reconcile long-term and short-term goals? Is it better than being stuck in place? 00:57:34 Is religion a system of societal error correction? Do religions give you better life goals (and free you of addictions). Have religions become too lazy and are not challenged enough? Has postmodernism shown us how uncontested religious ideas are a problem? 01:07:13 Is the catholic church a good model for a 'world government'? Thaddeus Kozinski is a professor of theology and philosophy at the Divine Mercy University. He is the author of Modernity as Apocalypse: Sacred Nihilism and the Counterfeits of Logos and The Political Problem of Religious Pluralism: And Why Philosophers Can't Solve It. You may watch this episode on Youtube - Thaddeus 'the Catholic' (Pluralism, Liberalism, Postmodernism, Idolatry, World Government). Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply).     Today's welcome to the judgment call podcast really appreciate thanks for coming You're welcome. Thanks for having me on torsten. Hey, absolutely I looked into you a little bit and there's two books that you wrote and it stood out and got quite a bit of recognition One is where you talk about what role does religious pluralism have in society? How nation states should actually be a construct and is that even possible which we all think it is right? So that's kept I guess the consensus and the other book that I took a quick look at is How Catholicism really fits into modern society and what what happened to Catholicism? Because it went through so many changes at least the public perception during the last 100 years So i'm excited to talk about this and you're also just in that before when we spoke earlier you mentioned A couple of other topics that I think are really relevant to today's discussion about what's going on in the world So maybe like my first question is how did you start with philosophy and how do you select those topics? So why are certain things closer to your heart like those topics? We just talked about and others that you come across from what you feel others are not as relevant to you You just leave them by the wayside a little bit well, I I started out in college as a pre med major math and science Towards my junior year I was reading And I wasn't practicing religion at this point. I was kind of a Nietzschean In my in my behavior and thought even though I didn't know who Nietzsche was, you know what I mean? I was sort of uh, I was a de facto Nietzschean living for extreme extreme experiences trying to defy uh the status quo you know Trying not to be a conformist all that and I was searching though at that point And I I actually read one particular book which sort of opened up a whole new world to me And was called the screw tape letters by c.s. Lewis Have you heard of the book? I have not no I have not so the screw tape letters are fictional letters written from uh a devil in hell called screw tape To his nephew wormwood and the whole book is about how to How to get this one particular individual into hell and so what lewis does is he incorporates a lot of uh social commentary and spiritual truth in this But what happened to me when I read that was I thought wow, this could be true There really might be the spiritual world out there of of truth of comprehensive metaphysical spiritual truth And I I really felt the the the reality of that from this book It really it really floored me And so at that point I got really interested in reading reading these things. Um reading spiritual works of lewis and uh other other theologians and That got me interested in moving away from the sciences into philosophy and theology and so um I then uh Enrolled in a program called uh saint john's college uh in anapolis, maryland, which teaches the great books only They're one of the first great books colleges and I took the master's program there and read through the whole canon of great works All the philosophy theology literature history that I didn't really get uh undergraduate Um as I was going through that program. I discovered playdough who became uh, I just fell in love with his writings especially the republic And what really floored me was his discussion of democracy and book eight of the republic Where he basically says that he depicts democracy as a kind of relativistic Carnival of everyone doing their own thing and everybody's happy and self satisfied Except that it's the beginning of tyranny For playdough because what happens is is in that vacuum the tyrant Is born and the tyrant is completely a slave to his passions and makes everybody else enslaved to his will And that just floored me. I never I never read anything like that and it he also described the way in which the political order is Uh, a kind of macrocosm of the order of the soul And that was also uh new to me and that got me interested in political philosophy And uh, I had also become interested in the catholic intellectual tradition, particularly its philosophical tradition Combinating in st. Thomas Aquinas So I went to catholic university and and took 12 courses Uh in for my phd. Uh, a lot of them on st. Thomas Um, I discovered allister mackentire's writings at this point and his radical critique of secular liberalism Um, and I also discovered the social encyclicals of the popes, especially leo the 13th Um, where he talked about what a christian political order looks like and should look like and how it connects to the truths of the gospel And so at that point I decided I wanted to write um, my dissertation on Uh, what I call in my in my book that came out of that the political problem of religious pluralism um Looking at plato looking at Aristotle looking at Aquinas looking at jack baritain allister mackentire john walls Um and seeing what the problem really was Uh in our culture And and that's what I tried to um Figure out in that book. Yeah, that sounds fascinating. I mean those are I I feel I've only even heard of the subset of those books And I've only read a couple um of them as well. Um, this sounds really fascinating when when we look into Let's say a popular opinion is that political pluralism So the the the ability to To and compass all kinds of religion into one nation state kind of what the what the u.s. Um It kind of isn't because it's kind of based on a on a christian philosophy, but it kind of Um prides itself in disability to it. So any anyone with any kind of religion and have anyone that have a guaranteed ability to To practice that religion and bring it into this this microcosm of what's modern, um america First question would be do you feel america is? Pluralist is really pluralist as you would perceive it and be what do you think it's not working out so well? Uh the answer to the question of whether we have a genuine plurality of And even and even from the beginning of the founding is genuinely pluralist is is no Um, and you have to sort of think about what it means to be pluralist. Um Uh, you know John Locke in his letter on toleration Um said that uh, the the true the mark of the true church is toleration Uh, he also said every church is orthodox to itself And in his uh Other writings maybe including that one as well. He He forbid uh, both atheists and catholics to be part of this New enlightened, uh, social contract. The reason he did that is because he had a suspicion there that Neither the atheists nor the catholic could actually abide by Uh, the kind of implicit rules of the social contract and what the rules are there is a sort of religious relativism Um, in other words, uh, you could you could practice your religion your philosophical doctrines Whatever you think about values, uh, in the civil sphere in the sphere of private life But when it comes to public life when it comes to the laws Uh, when it comes to the the sort of life of the common good, it's the civil society that determines these things Well, what that means though is that the civil society the political, uh, authority has decided that no religious truth or institution such as the catholic church Has any political authority whatsoever has any authori

    1h 21m

  6. 07/19/2021

    Max Wiethe (The state of financial industry and financial journalism)

    00:03:30 What regulation should we employ in the financial industry? Does it make us more safe? 00:10:57 How Max got into his current career and what he has learned from his interviewees. 00:17:01 Is the world going crazy? Is the 'attentionalism' already changing people and is the financial industry a good showcase for this? Is 'career risk' actually the most important part of financial decision making? How should 'risk taking' work in the financial industry? 00:27:00 What is the state of financial media? Why is holding up better than other parts of journalism? 00:36:01 Which opportunities are available in the finance sector? Are entrepreneurial opportunities in other sectors of the economy really harder to come by than a few decades ago? 00:41:16 Will machines take over everything but marketing and sales? Are humans competitive vs. machines in terms of making complex decisions? 00:56:16 Will we see the 'rise of independent curators' in the financial industry? 01:10:30 Have preferences for earning money changed? Is quality of life more important than high earnings? 01:20:11 Will exploring new planets (and the possibilities of discovering assets) change the society on earth forever?   You may watch this episode on Youtube - Max Wiethe (The state of financial industry and financial journalism). Max Wiethe is an editor and journalist at Real Vision where Max hosts a weekly series of interviews with financial industry heavyweights. Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply).   I actually saw something yesterday, a guy who was talking about like, go on zero hedge and there are articles that are promoting stocks. And he actually, he said back in the 80s, he got a call or his dad got a call from basically a boiler room broker telling him that it was the height of Billy Crystal, if you know the comedian Billy Crystal, his career, he said, this company is making the next Billy Crystal movie and got him to invest $2,000 and he ended up losing all of his money. Not a ton of money, but in the 80s, $2,000 was a good chunk of money and he was basically saying these websites where you can promote a stock and then they'll just have a little disclaimer down at the bottom, it's like so and so may have received compensation to write this article. Like that's the same guy as the people in the Wolf of Wall Street who were calling you and saying like, I've got Aerotine international investment and like when you see it on a website, it doesn't feel like it's a broker because it's not a broker, but that person is being compensated to write that article about that stock and if you can't tell, if you can't see those little things, you might not understand the biases of that information. So there's lots of things like that that I think are important. I mean, happy to just talk about content in general and how I think about it. I think you'll find... I want to get into this. Yeah, I said I think you'll find once you get me going, we will have no problem filling time. Yeah. Well, we don't want to just fill time, but I'm really curious about your insight and you've seen the industry from a different point of view than most of us. And maybe you can just go there right now. One thing that a lot of people in the financial industries or industry are very much involved with it, but they're also passionate to an extent with it is regulation, right? So there is a ton of amount of regulation with financial industry. It seems so easy to innovate new cars and just come out with something completely new. And over the century, the last, what is it, since the late, probably since the beginning of time, but we really see what's still left since I'd say that the 18th century, there's been a lot of regulation that prohibits certain behavior, like you just gave us an example about zero hedge. I don't want to put zero hedge. I just like use them as an example of a website where it could be anywhere, right? What I'm trying to say is from where I come from, and we should get into this topic a little deeper, I always feel there is a lot of regulation that's so complicated to enforce that creates so much red tape that it's probably not worth it. If you have trust in the investment, if you have trust in the active participant in that marketplace in the financial industry, maybe people just have to wise up. That's where I come from, where I feel like, well, if you fall for this thing, that's your problem, right? So there shouldn't be a Soviet state that protects you from it. It's called capitalism. And to a large extent, people will always push the boundaries and you have to look at this. The government and the SEC cannot help you. Yeah, to an extent, I would tend to agree with you that there is a certain level of responsibility. And where regulators fall into this, the fact that they have to disclose, for instance, this example that I gave of what seems like an article, a nonbiased editorial article, which is actually a promoted piece where that company has hired this person, whether they paid them in stock, whether they paid them in options, whether they paid them in cash, they do have to disclose that at the bottom. So there is some layer of regulation already in there, or else they probably wouldn't disclose that sort of thing. So their fingerprints are still already there. And there is a level of like, you have to... But is it necessary, right? Is it even... Doesn't it promote a false sense of confidence? Because all these disclaimers under restrictions, they don't do anything. I mean, I don't feel that there is... Unless you have a really strong prosecution and a real way to enforce it, that probably makes it worse. You should only have laws you can enforce 99%, 100%. And most of these laws are barely enforceable, like inside a trading, right? That's basically not enforceable. We hear these every 10 years. Yeah. I mean, it's... And it's generally... I mean, we have... You've got all the news about Nancy Pelosi and the congressmen who are able to trade off of what they know. It's not illegal for them to know that Facebook is only going to get fined $10 billion and that the market is probably going to rally on that and then they can buy call options or something like that. That's not illegal. Yeah. Why would she buy so many call options otherwise? What? Yeah. Well, what's the alternative explanation where she's buying so many call options on these things? I mean, I haven't looked at the specific case and I don't think the Facebook example that I gave is exactly what happened in this case, but the basic premise of that there are two sets of rules. And that actually it's generally easier to go after lower level people than it is higher level people. And I think even the IRS has said that when it comes to going after tax crimes, that it's much easier for them to go after the guy with a small business who's maybe worth a couple of million dollars, who made an honest mistake in trying to navigate the incredibly complex tax system than it is the guy who's worth $200 million dollars, who's actively trying to circumvent the laws through loopholes, which are not intentional. It's much harder for them to go after that guy than it is the guy who's worth $2 million. And I think the same is true a lot of times with financial crimes that would fall under the realm of the SEC, that it's just they're going up against people who, one, know the regulations and two can afford to fight these sorts of things. So it often comes down to the little guy, like there was a story about some junior guy at a bank a few years ago who he made $80,000 off of his insider trading or it was less than a million dollars and like he was one of the people who got prosecuted and think about all the trades that happen out there that people make so much more money on and those are the types of scraps that regulators are going after and not because the right laws aren't in place, but they don't have the resources and if they did have the resources, would it be worthwhile for them to allocate the resources to fighting these fights, which are much harder to win? I mean, it's just it's the sheer intensity is an information problem, right? So we won the laws of Valentine that and I fully understand where the notion of protecting the consumer comes from. And I think this is all good, right? But what we end up with is a massive amount of law that is very, the enforcement is very uneven. That's what I'm trying to say. So you, I'm not sure if I prescribe to the thesis that it hits the little guy. I think it just hits random people. So it's kind of like littering on the on the freeway, right? So the fines are so high because it's basically unenforceable because you would have to have a camera everywhere and, you know, take pictures of the license plates. So that's what I feel we have with the financial regulation. There's a lot out there, but it creates mostly red tape. And I don't think the world would be different if insider trading would not be a crime. I don't even know if it is a crime in other countries. I actually doubt it is in many other countries. Yeah, I would tend to agree with you, but it's not politically palatable to go backwards in that way. Like I just, I just don't, I just don't think it's, I don't think that the average American really understands how, how the whole financial system works. And you

    1h 27m

  7. 06/16/2021

    Julio Maria Muhorro (Tales of Entrepreneurship in Africa)

    00:00:36 How Julio's entrepreneurial journey started? 00:06:29 How do opportunities for entrepreneurs in Africa stack up currently? 00:13:45 How knowledge based and digital content businesses are faring in coastal African countries. How staggered access to digital innovations delays opportunities outside of the US. 00:20:48 How to find early adopters for your startup? Can you find them in a 'non early adopter market'? 00:24:35 What is the 'correct idea' of a risk-taking entrepreneur? 00:29:01 How will we get to nine billion brains and innovating entrepreneurs in the future? 00:36:34 How will we deal with the enormous amount of 'cultural download'? How difficult is it to identify opportunities? 00:40:14 How do we identify and allocate future revenue streams (that look more like TV/film royalties)? How do we stabilize resource allocation for micro entrepreneurship? 00:45:01 Why the 'platform economy' is a short term 'trap' for most entrepreneurs. But is it a good intermediate stage? 00:54:01 How do we set the right framework and incentive to encourage and foster entrepreneurship (as an example in Mozambique). 01:01:01 Is valuation the only USP of an investor? Are secondary variables more important? 01:04:01 Is negative or positive motivation the 'better motivation' for creating the desire to 'improve the world'? 01:09:10 What are the best countries to invest in in Africa? Do the 'nation states' even matter much? 01:16:15 Is Crowdfunding a solution to the funding problem of African startups? You may watch this episode on Youtube - Julio Maria Muhorro (Tales of Entrepreneurship in Africa). Julio Maria Muhorro is an entrepreneur and business coach based in Mozambique and South Africa. Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply).     Julio, thanks for coming to the Judgment Call podcast. We really appreciate that. Thank you so much for having me. I'm so excited to have this conversation with you, man. Hi, same here, same here. We spoke a couple of months ago, and we were just chatting about that. There were a couple of things we really wanted to talk about, and you are a very successful entrepreneur. You're quite young. You do all this for Mozambique, and now you're in South Africa. Maybe you tell us a little bit about yourself, and what really motivated you to become an entrepreneur so early in your life? Sure. It all started for me when I was just about to graduate for university, and I realized I didn't have a job afterwards, like many people. One of my friends, he was already an entrepreneur doing some transportation business, and he wanted to go into developing short term courses. He had all the entrepreneurial experience, but he knew nothing about academia, per se, or knowledge based businesses, but there was my jam. I was a lecturer at a university to help pay for my scholarship and my fees, and the university I was studying in, and my parents were teachers. Education and knowledge based stuff was really my jam. We joined forces and we started this company out of scratch, two young people, and I remember we really went over what we thought it was right, because I had no experience developing courses. My experience at the time was just delivering courses. I remember I had to Google how to build a session plan for a workshop and stuff like that, but then in three months, we trained almost 600 people in total. For you to think this is like a startup that no one heard of, and the key of our success early in the stage is that we were quite doing a lot of interactions with the market. We did all the research piece, we asked students what they wanted to learn, we kept their contact details, so when we launched the courses, we sent them SMS and all that stuff, and the energy was just cool and vibe. I mean, I was giving teachings and classes like eight hours a day, and I didn't want them to be boring, so I really made sure that it was interactive and fun, and people really appreciated. From that place, back in the days in Mozambique, business mentors, advisors, there was not even words we were used to it. It was at a time in the business where I felt I was making good decisions, but I wasn't making great decisions, and I just didn't know how I could make that leap. It made sense to me to get a job while my co founder was still running the business, and that's what I did. I joined them as a mechanical company called Idea Lab. They are major in supporting entrepreneurs in a more of ecosystem level, so they work with different stakeholders to support entrepreneurs, and they work with entrepreneurs directly with trainings, with events, with advisory, and I joined them to work on marketing, and then because of my background, I became a business advisor and mentor to the startups and a trainer. In two years into that business, they invited me to launch the very first business incubation program in Mozambique, so there for me was huge because I was usually the generation that heard that, well, you should start businesses, you should do stuff, but we just don't know how young people, we just don't know how to do those things, and I was given the chance to be in a place where I could help other young people to follow their dreams, so they were super cool, and in two years, their business grew, and for me, what was growing was this sense that I should be able to do more, like I wanted to do more, I wanted to explore the world, I just didn't know how back again, and it really went home when I was in Bahrain in the Middle East, we were doing a speaking engagement there, the Global Entrepreneurship Congress, which is one of the biggest entrepreneurship events in the world, and after speaking, this bunch of one up guys, they come to me and like, Julio, can you just have like a small talk with you after, you know, the big session, we really want to get deep into some stuff, I went there, we talked with them, and I remember the guy told me like, Julio, now I know what I need to do with my life and my business, like, I have, I'm clear, so clear, deep down, I was just feeling empty, like, I was literally just showing up, I was so depleted, because I knew I wanted to do more, and I wasn't doing it, that it was really starting to, you know, down, way down in my productivity and stuff, so that led me to launch my current business for Knowledge International, where we focus on helping entrepreneurs and executives directly, by offering power coaching, training and speaking engagements, and for the corporates, we offer them knowledge consultancy, so we help them harness the power of knowledge of their people, so they can start growing their business from a place that really feels good to them. There was a very long story, the shortest I could tell you. I mean, this seems that a lot has been going on, and, you know, you have your own venture, you already worked with an incubator, and now you're doing your second venture, so this is also what I think a lot, including me, and a lot of people are interested in that is, you know, Africa is kind of, as a bigger destination, and then Southern Africa, Sub Saharan Africa, is always hailed as this enormous potential, and we, in terms of investment opportunities, and in terms of what knowledge based business models could do for the large population, and I had Daniel Gross on who runs a completely virtual incubator pioneer, and he's had a lot of investments that he did in South Southern Africa, but also including Nigeria, so there's a lot of potential. We sometimes, it's hard to grasp this, right? It's a big population, its connectivity is increasing quite nicely. The last time I was in Mozambique, what was interesting for me was I was in Maputo, and most of the internet connections I could get out of hotels, or coffee shops were really slow, but then I just tapped into LTE, and it was like a hundred ambit everywhere, all over the countryside on our holy smokes, so I didn't see that coming. I was super fast and super cheap, it was like a dollar for a gigabyte. Anyway, so there seems to be a slightly different way that each country obviously goes, and maybe it's a different kind of connectivity. What I'm trying to get to, when you look at the opportunities that you see for entrepreneurs, how does this stack up, and I know you've been awarded one of the most prominent entrepreneurs in Africa a couple of years ago, give us an insight where you feel these opportunities are real, and they may be just made up. For sure. I guess we need to start taking a step back, and just put Africa in a bit more of context for our listeners. So the first thing is that when you look at the world map, you see this huge chunk of land altogether is Africa, and unlike other continents like Europe or America, or North America or South America, even though it's a continent, it's all together, we couldn't be more different, even though we have so many similars. So that's the first point, and each country has slightly different nuances in terms of cultures, and what people value, and what type of business can flourish. But something that I found that's quite different from African markets than we have from any other markets, it's how mobile our money is. I mean, if you look at countries like Zimbabwe, they really don't have yet money anymore, and they just use mobile money. And mobile money, it's not like you transfer yourself on PayPal, it's

    1h 26m

  8. 06/15/2021

    Alexander Bard (The philosophy of everything)

    00:00:30 How Alexander and his co-author Jan have managed to produce such an enormous (and prophetic) body of written work over the last 20 years 00:04:43 What Alexander thinks about postmodernism? 00:09:01 What are 'Netocrats'? How is the world changing due to the Internet? Who is ready for the digital future and who is not? 00:14:01 What is the future of (representative) democracy and politics in general? What is a 'sensocracy'? 00:19:30 How should a 'world government' work? How much subsidiarity will it allow? What role will 'charter cities' play? 00:24:15 Will we be able to switch between city state benevolent dictatorships (i.e. will countries/ cities be run like companies) as part of our life? 00:27:01 Why was Jesus Christ actually killed & the surprising utility of 'empires'. 00:30:42 How our future laws are already emerging throughout Internet. 00:34:31 Is competition increasing for companies? Should we react with more collaboration to improve our competitiveness? 00:42:31 What role do Internet platforms play? Do they actually have a monopoly? 00:45:21 Is marketing as a whole evil? How has it changed over the years and how it is connected to 'attentionalism'? We will abolish advertising soon to protect our 'sacred space'? 00:51:01 Why is productivity growth so low? Are we not daring enough? Is the focus on marketing ('useless products') to blame? 00:58:43 Why wars (as terrible as they are) are good measures of productivity and ideology. 00:59:55 After the 'Death of God' and the 'Death of the Individual' how are we now orient ourselves? 01:07:32 Why 'native tribes' don't see a crisis of meaning or depression currently? Why some religions are more static than others. 01:11:23 What is our best bet for a future religion? Is it likely to emerge or will we have to live with many parallel truths? Will we see 'weird activism' instead? 01:18:11 Why the world will look more like India and Singapore soon? 01:24:12 What surprised Alexander the most (compared to his predictions) the within the last 20 years? 01:26:58 What will happen in 2038? Will AGI actually emerge by itself? 01:31:01 Are we (co-)created by an alien intelligence? Is the multiverse theory useful? Should we investigate spacetime more thoroughly? You may watch this episode on Youtube - #96 Alexander Bard (The philosophy of everything). Alexander Bard is a musician, author, lecturer, artist, songwriter, music producer, political activist and philosopher. Alexander is co-author of a number of books incl. Syntheism - Creating God in the Internet Age, The Futurica Trilogy and Digital Libido.   Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply).   Torsten Jacobi: Alexander, welcome to The Judgment Call broadcast. Thanks for coming. Really appreciate it. Thanks for taking the time. I know you're busy. Alexander Bard: Well, thank you for having me. Torsten Jacobi: Absolutely. Hey, so you are a 21st century philosopher, and I feel after reading two of your books, you wrote a couple of those over the last decades. I actually read Fruturica Trilogy and The Digital Lividone. I started with Sintiism. I feel they're very, very accessible. It's a philosophy that's relatively easy to read, which is, you know, not easy to find. And I feel like you've seen the future, and now you just write about it. So how did that happen? How did you make yourself so aware of the future? Alexander Bard: Well, I should first of all honor my co writer, Jan Söderkvist. He's very experienced and extremely learned. And we're the same age. We met about a year before we started writing together, but I would say the accessibility in our work, and I'm glad if they're accessible. We do our utmost to make velocities as accessible as it possibly can be without losing any of the quality. We don't compromise on the quality. And I think Jan is the guy who really does a lot of the work in making the text in Swedish and German language as accessible as possible. But we don't compromise on the quality. And these are, of course, this is philosophy. I mean, the philosopher is the guy who tries to observe the world at the furthest possible distance. But if somebody's even further behind the philosopher trying to see the bigger picture, that's the philosopher. So the philosopher is always the guy who tries to look at the world with the biggest possible picture. And of course, then also the biggest time scale. And that's what we try to do as philosopher. And of course, we are humans ourselves and we write to humans. So we are discussing the human condition constantly, but from a very large degree. Torsten Jacobi: Yeah, what I love about your books is that, you know, you go come from really first principles from very abstract principles, but you make really concrete predictions. And that's something that I admire with the records while he goes from very abstract predictions and come or thinking frame of thinking and he goes down to very specific predictions. So it becomes way more accessible. I think this is pretty rare. It's pretty awesome. Alexander Bard: Yeah, our first three books were redistributed or actually relaunched as the Ferturica trilogy. And the term Ferturica actually is a new literary term. It literally means the mixture of philosophy and futurology. And when you think about if you're going to do futurology really deeply, you're also going to discuss things that do not yet exist. Because obviously, there are new things happening constantly in history. And since you have to speculate on that which does not exist yet, you are going philosophical because you're actually philosophical the same day you use a new term to describe something. So philosophers are when they're good, they're really good at just nailing something you have a sense of, but suddenly there's a word for it. And because you have that word, you can start discussing it. I give an example, in our first book, The Net of Crest, we discovered that there wasn't really a term for using resources in a sustainable way over time. So say you're trying to you have a certain resource here, and you don't want to exploit it because if you exploit the resource, you're basically exhausting it. What happens if you actually have in your mindset, you're set that you're going to use a resource, but you're going to refurbish it, you're going to replace it again, it's going to turn back against you can use it all over again. For example, you do that in agriculture, compared to mining and mining, you take the ore out, you take the metal out, and you throw in the garbage cans, where in farming you actually have to renew it because you have to use the same earth the next year. And there wasn't a word for that. So we started using the word exploitation as the opposite explanation. And then it became a standard term in sociology and anthropology. And now it's a widely used term. These kinds of things you want to do as a philosopher, you want to find these new words, where you actually nail something that people have already considered, but there isn't probably a possible term for it yet. And that's what we do as philosophers called the invention of concepts. Torsten Jacobi: Yeah. Well, we often associate, at least in the current time, making up new boards with postmodernists, right? And they are also, that is kind of the prior generation of philosophers, right, the last 30, 40, 50 years. And they have been really interested in the human collaboration and about themes that are inside our human existence that are governing us, but they, we don't really know they're there, right? So they've been criticizing them for the longest time and trying to find out what is actually, why are we here? What are those themes of human interaction that are governing us? But none of us really consciously knows about them. From reading your books, I never really found out what is your thought on postmodernist. Do you think they were spot on or did they were right at that time frame or they are just wrong? Alexander Bard: No, I mean, I mean, you make, you make your priorities and philosophers do too. And yeah, I read Baudrillard and Lyotard, they were great, certainly Derrida, they profound work that I find very useful. But a lot of the so called postmodernists were very obsessed with the symbolic. And this will live in a very medialized world to the media is very, very important to us. They would then go through, for example, history of literature and then describe the work of literature and have a critique on that. And they stayed very much in what's called the Symbolic Order. Now, what I found fascinating though, when I started working in the 1980s, this was like 20 years before I started writing, because you have to think through your philosophy properly first before you write it. And I'm 60 years old, and I debuted when I was 39, but I had a career in music industry before that. But most philosophers should actually have another career first of some kind. And I was an economist and a music producer. Then I became a philosopher because you have nothing to say when you're young. And the young philosophers are right, brilliantly when they're young, they have to regret it the entire life, even Heidegen and Wittgenstein regretted their works of their youth, their entire life. So it's a good thing to do like a monocon, just work hard and then wait and then publish everything

    1h 43m

  9. 06/09/2021

    Imran Lakha (How to use option strategies to improve your market edge)

    00:00:38 How Imran found his way from Wall Street to teaching option strategies at Options Insight. 00:09:42 What retail traders should learn before trading options. Why meme stocks options are such a 'rational choice' right now? 00:14:42 Where are the best opportunities for trading options to still have an edge? 00:24:45 What is Imran's view on the delation/inflation scenario? Are commodities a good hedge? 00:29:35 Why does a 'rational investor' buy negative yielding bonds (or very low yielding bonds) at all considering the inflation risk? 00:36:35 Did Softbank successfully manipulate the stock market for mid-tier tech stocks in 2020? 00:43:19 Is there a 'low risk' strategy to buy/sell volatility? 00:48:56 What are excellent, low risk hedging strategies for a portfolio? Can a option based 'hedge' actually make money? 01:03:15 What is the strong relationship between low interest rates and money losing tech companies? 01:08:10 Is there are place for 'value investors' left? Why does the investment world basically just 'bet on more free money' instead? 01:13:14 What is Imran's strategy to use options trading Bitcoin upside/ downside? You may watch this episode on Youtube - #95 Imran Lakha (How to use option strategies to improve your market edge). Imran Lakha has been working with Citibank, Bank of America and Credit Suisse trading options. He now teaches options strategies at Options Insight.   Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply).   Torsten Jacobi: Yeah, we love to have you on and we know your specialty is option trading. And do we also know you've been all old, all street, different banks, credit, Swiss, city bank over the years, and you've been doing this for a long time. And I was curious, what attracted you to the financial industry in the first place? And then why did you leave Wall Street at some point? Imran Lakha: Okay, so in terms of what attracted me to Wall Street, I guess, you know, I did mathematics and economics at university. I was the son of an accountant. So my dad was in finance, both my brothers were kind of in finance as well. And so because I was always pretty decent at maps and had those quantitative skills, it was like, what career can I go into and utilize the skills that I have? And, you know, going to London School of Economics set me up to be able to, you know, be attracted by those big banks on Wall Street where, you know, as a 20, 30 year old, you can you can make good money and, you know, you can get some decent security and live a good life, right? That was the kind of goal when I originally started. I was brought up to be very motivated to get myself secure and comfortable in life, right? So, you know, my dad struggled, you know, he moved here. When he was 20 years old, he struggled through various jobs that he would, he was quite skilled, like in terms of knowledge and stuff, but he had to do jobs that were kind of, you know, maybe a little bit basic for him. And he didn't want us to go through the same strife, right? So he, he kind of taught us that, you know, work hard at school, get the skills, get a good job and make set yourself up, basically, right? So it's very Asian, very Asian mentality. But it kind of worked, right? It was, it was certainly worked on a materialistic level, like allowing me to earn enough money to get myself comfortable, you know? Torsten Jacobi: Yeah. Why did you end up, and I know you changed positions for different banks over the years, but I know you took a break a couple of years ago, and then you left Wall Street once out. Imran Lakha: So actually, you know, a lot of that initially was driven by my wife. Yeah. So she, she was really keen on traveling before we had kids. So we were married for about, you know, seven years. We weren't in a rush to have kids, but we were like, you know, if we're going to have kids, she really, really wanted to see the world a bit and travel. And because my career was going pretty well, you know, I hadn't really taken the plunge until then. And, and it just came to a nice point in my career where I was feeling pretty burnt out. I've been doing it for about 10 years. And she really wanted to travel before we had kids. So I was like, you know what, I'm going to put my hand up, take voluntary redundancy, and let's use the money I get to travel the world. So that's what we did before we had kids. It's amazing. Torsten Jacobi: Yeah, it sounds a bit like Jim Rogers, right? He, he took his money, he went on this two year long trip, you know, I think he did two trips around the world, both of them were around two years old. And then he ran his own shop after that, right? So he, he joined the ranks of the legendary investors who run their own shop, the company, the publisher, publishing newsletter, we know this is something that is as a business model, really, really popular right now, the stack exchange. Is that something that you, where you felt like, well, I can either make more money, or this is just fits my lifestyle better? How did you, how did you transition this way out of Wall Street at that point? Imran Lakha: Well, my, my actual transition out of Wall Street happened later. So when I came back from traveling, I wasn't desperate to go back to banking. I was, I was kind of fishing around to see if there were any hedge fund opportunities, didn't manage to find any, and then ended up joining an old boss of mine at Citibank, and actually got back to banking, which was slightly annoying, because I was kind of enjoying not being in it. But it was only later after I had kind of, you know, had my little go on the buy side, you know, satisfied that sort of itch, scratch that itch as it were. And then it was only then that I was okay, now it's time to maybe try something else. And that was the teaching, because I'd always quite enjoyed the idea of teaching and I'd always in, you know, throughout my career at banks, I'd always trained people that came through, and, and that was something that I really liked to do. And I found that I was quite effective at it. So then I was like, okay, so I've got a bunch of knowledge on a subject that's quite niche, and I've got a lot, I've got a big network of contacts that I could probably, you know, turn into clients, you know, ex colleagues or whatever that I might have. So why not give it a go? So that was the night when I created Options Insight. Torsten Jacobi: And Options Insight help us to understand that a little better. It's really about trading options in the market, what's available to the retail investor, or does it go in a different direction? Imran Lakha: No, well, when I first started Options Insight, it was about how, how do I leverage my network, right? So I've got a bunch of old colleagues at banks, some of them are asset managers who are old clients of mine. I've got some brokers who I used to be their clients, all these people who have, I've probably have staff, junior staff who need proper training, and probably don't get proper training, right? So it was actually at the start, it was more of an institutional product and an institutional offering that I was giving, because that was the contacts that I already had, right? And no one, no one in the public sphere, no one in retail knew me, right? So, so it was very much the first couple of years, just leveraging those contacts, building up my content, building up my sort of product suite. And it was only post COVID, really, that I realized that, you know, the people who really need the education and are still out there looking for it, and are more consistently always going to be there, are the retail traders, right? And as the growth in retail trading exploded in the last couple of years, particularly in options, and I was seeing some really basic sort of errors or mistakes that I think, you know, novice option traders kind of make, I was like, these are the people that I need to try and educate, right? So then it was a case of try to build that sort of profile that I'm not just for institutions, even though I've been on Wall Street for 20 years, and those are the people who I know and know me, I'm happy to teach the retail people, because, you know, it doesn't have to be only professionals, you can, you can teach this knowledge to anyone, right? So that was the goal and that was the idea. Torsten Jacobi: Yeah, I feel like they should make your initial course mandatory on Robinhood. I was really surprised, you know, I had a portfolio for, I don't know, 25 years, first eTrade, you know, that was the first online broker a long time ago. Anyway, from the minute I started, but Robinhood, about two years ago, 18 months ago, I was really surprised that the approval to, for option trading used to be a pain, like it was possible, but you needed to file some documents and you need to text something, you needed to validate your ID. I think that's all true with Robinhood too. But I feel like I was instantly approved for options trading, and I couldn't believe it, I could suddenly, I could, I could sell calls, I could buy points, it was amazing. But from, and I think I know what I'm doing, well, we all think that, right? But I do have 20 years of experience with the subject, not in detail. But I was really surprised that Robinhood really opened up options trading to the masses. And I had this suspicion, that might be just me, t

    1h 23m

  10. 06/02/2021

    Erik Lentz (How to build an actual warp drive)

    00:00:14 The short history of Erik's discovery (and theory) of faster than light speed travel. 00:06:20 How Faster Than Light Speed travel would actually work? 00:16:20 How much energy would be required for a warp drive propulsion? Is there enough energy in the universe to make faster than light speed travel feasible? 00:25:29 Why the 'twin paradox' will be solved with a warp drive? 00:32:47 Did Stargate get the 'warp' drive idea right after all? 00:39:13 Are Black Holes a form of cosmic pollution left over by 'misconnecting warp drives'? 00:44:50 Is time the same for everyone in the universe? 00:50:10 What compels us to be pioneers? 00:53:05 Do we live in a simulation? 01:03:43 What are other 'faster than light' phenomena in the universe? 01:14:34 How does 'dark energy/ dark matter' work? What do we know about it? 01:25:10 Are there more dimensions than the four we can easily interact with? Does time exist without a conscious observer? You may watch this episode on Youtube - #94 Erik Lentz (How to build an actual warp drive). Apologies for the sound quality during the first few minutes - it gets much better after the initial five minutes! Erik Lentz is a Ph.D. physicist and focuses on the theoretical, computational, and experimental aspects of searching for dark matter as well as faster than light travel. Big Thanks to our Sponsors! ExpressVPN – Claim back your Internet privacy for less than $10 a month! Mighty Travels Premium – incredible airfare and hotel deals – so everyone can afford to fly Business Class and book 5 Star Hotels! Sign up for free! Divvy – get business credit without a personal guarantee and 21st century spend management plus earn 7x rewards on restaurants & more. Get started for free! Brex – get a business account, a credit card, spend management & convertible rewards for every dollar you spend. Plus now earn $250 just for signing up (Terms & Conditions apply).   Torsten Jacobi: Eric, thank you so much for coming on the podcast. I really appreciate it. Thanks for taking the time. Erik Lentz: Oh, thank you for inviting me. Hey, absolutely. Torsten Jacobi: Eric, you changed the world recently and you gave us faster than lights if you travel, at least theoretically, right? You published a paper recently where you outlined the options, how we can achieve that. And it's been so long and I had many people here on the podcast who were very, very convinced that this barrier can never be broken. So I'm really curious about your thoughts and maybe you can help us a little bit more, how you came up with this, what did you do before and what makes you so confident that this could actually be a possibility? Erik Lentz: I mean, I've been interested in this field for decades. I think a lot of people who get into STEM as a profession, we're all fans of science fiction in one form or another as children. And for me, it was definitely Star Trek. And I was really fascinated by the whole world that was set up by all the series and movies and whatnot. And I really resonated with the technology that seemed to facilitate all these things. And one that really stood out to me, that was really the physical link between the interstellar community possible was the warp drive. Otherwise, you'd be spending tens of thousands of years just trying to communicate across this vast network of civilizations. And so this seemed to be a really key point. And as it became older, it became obvious to me that someone would have to invent such a thing. And so it's been a fascination to see if something like one of these plot devices like the warp drive technology would actually be possible in the real world. And it took some time in order to build the technical acumen in order to be able to pursue that. But the desire was always there. And so what happened that, say, 2021 or really 2020 became the year that this paper came out for me is that I found the time to actually really delve into the topic. And we can, I guess, thank the pandemic for that because I found myself sitting at home with a lot of free time on my hands trying to find a way to fend off cabin fever and this project that I really wanted to do. And so I built into the literature to see what the status of people who had passed had been because, as your listeners may know, there is some existing literature on the concept of warp drive. You could say it kind of started seriously with Al Cubietti in 1994 when he was still a graduate student. He made this Al Cubietti drive this first example of a mechanism that could transport observers like you or me, people who move primarily through time rather than space, find a way that they could move effectively through this manifold of space time effective papers in the decades since then. And like you said, the literature seemed to indicate that this was while you could create such imaginary geometries, they were not really feasible because they had all sorts of problems, namely having to do with what sort of matter and energy would be needed to force them. And so this was something that was still problem in the literature when I looked back into the spring of last year. And I wanted to see if there were any loopholes, if there were any stones left unturned in all of the possible solutions to Einstein's relativity. That would allow for both a mechanism that could transport things at arbitrary speed, including faster than the speed of light as well as – that not necessarily need these exotic sources of energy and matter. And so the process that I undertook to do that was essentially just start to delve in the different types of geometries that would provide these properties that I would use that I would use that I would use that I wanted and constrain down, come up with a set of rules that would narrow down that set of solutions and these other constraints like positive energy and other things. And eventually, I found this vision set of rules that I could construct via a computer simulation how one of these geometries would take the example of one of these geometries and that's what you saw in the paper last year and what's been circulated in the past few months in the media. So this is all very exciting. I don't know if I'd say I've completely changed the world yet because there are still a lot of challenges ahead to this sort of research, but it is very exciting. Torsten Jacobi: That sounds fascinating, Eric. When you published this paper and it's been a couple months since then, when you would have to explain your theory to a 13 year old, how would that work? Maybe we can be in that same position. How can we actually get to that point where we can travel faster than the speed of light? What is necessary and what effect are we taking advantage of? Erik Lentz: Well, we're taking effect of the advantage that unlike special relativity, special relativity is usually what we appeal to when we think of nothing can move faster than the speed of light. That's relativity. That's actually not quite true in the context of special relativity and the principle of special relativity says that two objects cannot move relative to each other at a single point faster than the speed of light. So this is a very local statement when we bring it into the context of general relativity. So because moving from special relativity where we're all moving on this flat background space time and Kosti space time, and we make that space time in the context of general relativity dynamic and reactive to the matter and energy that lay on it, there are a few tricks that we can take advantage of. Namely that if we separate bodies, there's now no longer a principle that says that the bodies cannot move away from each other or towards each other, being at two different points effectively faster than the speed of light. In fact, we see a phenomenon like this, we believe, in our own universe, namely this acceleration quantity, the fact that galaxies very far away from us appear to not just be moving away from us, but accelerating away from us. This is a phenomenon called inflation. There's also a period that we believe in the early universe where a much more violent form of inflation happened where objects moved away from each other at a rate that increased exponentially with time. And as it becomes further. Torsten Jacobi: Some of those outer galaxies and planets, from what I remember, they move away faster than speed of light. So we can never catch up, never see that galaxy. Erik Lentz: Precisely, precisely. And by virtue of them being further apart and this acceleration mounting with that increasing separation, eventually they start moving away from you faster than the speed of light and they fall out of what's called causal contact. It means that you can't communicate with them anymore via something like a light beam. And they fall behind what we refer to as a horizon, an event horizon, of a different type than say you'd find around a black hole, but similar in effect that you can no longer communicate between these two bodies. And we're essentially doing something similar with the warp drive. We're taking advantage of something that kind of looks like inflation, a much more complicated form of inflation because it doesn't necessarily just inflate. It also contracts. And use this to our advantage in order to effectively make some motive device that propels us through this space time. The alkybietic metric is maybe the most intuitive form of this concept in that when you calculate what's called the extrinsic curvature, it's the form of curvature. It essentially tells you how space is being curved in the presence of the higher dimensional space plus time manifold. But what it tells you is for the alkybietic metric, you have this nice picture of what almost looks like a wave. And this is what is propagated in the media very often, that you have some flat region in the center of this warp bubble. Als

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A podcast where we talk to risk takers, adventurers, travelers, entrepreneurs and simply mind bogglers.

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  • Creator
    The Judgment Call Podcast
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2021
  • Episodes
    10
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    Clean
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    © The Judgment Call Podcast
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    The Judgment Call Podcast