The LOWDOWN

Joshua Patten
  • 4.9 (11)
  • DAILY NEWS
  • UPDATED DAILY

The LOWDOWN is an independent open-source intelligence (OSINT situational awareness report) covering competition, conflict, and coercive activity involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the Western Hemisphere. lowdownosint.substack.com

  1. Carrier Posture, Korean Modernization Signals, Iran Unrest, Russian Adaptation, and Boyd’s Warning on Strategic Blindness

    1D AGO

    Carrier Posture, Korean Modernization Signals, Iran Unrest, Russian Adaptation, and Boyd’s Warning on Strategic Blindness

    This episode of The LOWDOWN examines escalating global military posture, evolving battlefield adaptation, and internal regime pressures across multiple theaters—through the analytical lens of John Boyd’s Destruction and Creation. In the Indo-Pacific, North Korea appears poised to use an upcoming parade to signal progress in its 2021–2025 modernization cycle, potentially emphasizing survivable nuclear delivery systems and improved targeting capabilities. Pyongyang’s economic rebound—fueled by expanded trade with China and large-scale cryptocurrency theft—coincides with South Korea’s decision to proceed with the Freedom Shield exercise. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s collapse of the F-15EX deal signals continued diversification in regional fighter procurement. In the Middle East, Iran faces sustained domestic unrest following a deadly January crackdown, even as pro-regime rallies attempt to project internal stability. President Trump signaled consideration of deploying a second U.S. carrier strike group to CENTCOM if negotiations with Tehran fail. Concurrently, Washington approved major new arms packages to Israel and Saudi Arabia, reinforcing regional air, ground, and missile defense capabilities amid heightened deterrence signaling. Across Russia and Europe, Moscow continues rejecting meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine while reinvoking its 2022 Istanbul negotiating framework. The Kremlin throttled Telegram in a significant escalation of domestic information control, raising concerns even among Russian military bloggers about command-and-control impacts. Ukraine reported destruction of approximately 6,000 Russian FPV drones in cross-border strikes, while NATO aircraft intercepted a Russian fighter near Baltic airspace. Russian defense industry efforts to modernize artillery barrel production despite sanctions highlight ongoing adaptation. In the Western Hemisphere and beyond, President Trump indicated potential land-based strikes in Latin America targeting narcotics networks, while the U.S. announced deployment of 200 troops to Nigeria in an advisory counterinsurgency role. U.S. forces also seized a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean as part of expanded maritime enforcement. The episode concludes with a focused deep dive into Boyd’s warning about closed systems and strategic blindness. As Russia tightens internal narrative control and maintains doctrinal rigidity, and Iran frames dissent as anomaly, the risk of inward refinement increasing external mismatch becomes visible. In contrast, the U.S. Army’s deliberate stress-testing of its Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) system under electronic warfare conditions illustrates Boyd’s prescription: inject disruption before reality does it for you. This is a wide-arc look at posture, pressure, and adaptation—across theaters—through an enduring analytic lens that remains acutely relevant in 2026. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * Korean Peninsula Update, February 10, 2026 — ISW–CDOT (Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – China and Data Observatory Team (CDOT)) — https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/korean-peninsula-update-february-10-2026/ — North Korea may unveil new strategic systems at an upcoming Pyongyang parade as it closes out the 2021–2025 modernization plan, amid signs of economic rebound and South Korea proceeding with the March 9–19 Freedom Shield exercise. * Boeing abandons Indonesia F-15 bid — Michael Marrow (Breaking Defense) — https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/boeing-abandons-indonesia-f-15-bid/ — Boeing ended its campaign to sell up to 24 F-15EX fighters to Indonesia after Jakarta did not finalize the procurement announced in 2023. Russia and Europe * Russia unveils new multiple launch rocket system that’s highly mobile and precision-capable — Prabhat Ranjan Mishra (International Business Times) — https://interestingengineering.com/military/russia-rocket-system-precision-capable — Russia showcased the Sarma 300mm wheeled MLRS at World Defense Show 2026 in Riyadh, describing it as a mobile, automated, precision-capable launcher that can integrate drones and fire-control systems and use guided munitions with reported ranges up to about 120 km. * Russia deploys local satellite terminals to replace Starlink — Dylan Malyasov (NewsArmy) — https://defence-blog.com/russia-deploys-local-satellite-terminals-to-replace-starlink/ — A Ukrainian defense adviser said Russia is fielding Yamal- and Express-based satellite internet terminals with larger visible dish antennas after reported Russian Starlink access was blocked. * Ukraine Takes Out 6,000 Russian FPV Drones in Cross-Border Strikes — Julia Struck (Kyiv Post) — https://www.kyivpost.com/post/69723 — Ukraine’s General Staff said Ukrainian strikes hit targets including a UAV depot and destroyed about 6,000 Russian FPV drones, along with a command post and an ammunition storage site, with assessments ongoing. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-10-2026/ — ISW reported Russia blamed the U.S. for stalled negotiations, throttled Telegram, pursued sanctions-evasion for machine tools to expand production, and continued offensive and strike activity across multiple fronts while Ukraine conducted localized advances and strikes. * Russia’s FPV drone campaign in Ukraine institutionalizes intentional civilian harm as a tool of war — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russias-fpv-drone-campaign-in-ukraine-institutionalizes-intentional-civilian-harm-as-a-tool-of-war/ — ISW assessed Russian forces have conducted widespread FPV drone strikes against civilian targets and infrastructure in Ukraine’s near rear as an institutionalized component of Russian military operations. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 10, 2026 — CTP-ISW (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-10-2026/ — On February 10, the report says Iran continued rejecting negotiations on its ballistic missile program and Axis of Resistance support as Ali Larijani traveled to Oman and met a Houthi spokesperson, while Iran hardened Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center tunnel entrances, Iranian authorities intensified domestic securitization amid limited student protests and strikes, Iran-backed actors pressed Iraqi government formation around Nouri al Maliki, Syrian government–SDF implementation and integration talks continued, Hezbollah-linked networks showed activity in Syria and the West Bank, and the U.S. expanded financial sanctions targeting Hezbollah-linked entities and Iran-related sanctions evasion. * A Second Wave of Popular Anger Is Building in Iran — Margherita Stancati and Benoit Faucon (The Wall Street Journal) — https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/a-second-wave-of-popular-anger-is-building-in-iran-ac51969c — The report said Iranian public defiance increased after January’s protest killings, with funerals, student actions, and medical-worker protests continuing amid arrests and reports of thousands killed and tens of thousands detained. * Some Iranians rally behind the regime, but public anger runs deep after protest crackdown — Henry Austin (NBC News) — https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-protests-crackdown-ayatollah-khamenei-supporters-tehran-rcna257541 — The report described smaller pro-regime gatherings in Tehran alongside continued widespread anger after the crackdown, citing casualty and arrest figures reported by a U.S.-based monitoring group and noting increased U.S. military deployments and talks. * US approves major new arms sales to Israel worth $6.67 billion and to Saudi Arabia worth $9 billion — Matthew Lee (Associated Press) — https://apnews.com/article/israel-arms-sale-trump-iran-tensions-e73d1fe40974abca838a1a08590934d3 — The State Department announced arms sales totaling $6.67B to Israel and $9B to Saudi Arabia, including Patriot missiles for Saudi Arabia and Apache helicopters plus vehicles for Israel, as tensions rose over Iran. * Trump: Iran would be ‘foolish’ not to make a deal on its nuclear and missile programs — Reuters (Reuters) — https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-iran-would-be-foolish-not-to-make-a-deal-on-its-nuclear-and-missile-programs/ — Reuters reported Trump said on February 11, 2026 that Iran wants to make a deal with the U.S. on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and would be “foolish” not to. * Trump Considers Sending Second U.S. Aircraft Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East — OSINTdefender (citing Axios reporting by Barak Ravid) (Axios / OSINTdefender) — * — OSINTdefender reported Trump told Axios he is considering deploying a second carrier strike group to the Middle East and that a U.S. official confirmed discussions about an additional carrier deployment. Western Hemisphere * Donald Trump Promises ‘Very Hard’ Land Strikes in Latin America — Gabe Whisnant (Newsweek) — https://www.newsweek.com/trump-promises-hard-land-strikes-latin-america-drug-trafficking-11500789 — The report said Trump stated his administration plans to shift from maritime interdiction to land-based strikes in Latin America to combat drug trafficking, without detailing countries, timelines, or authorities. * Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro Says He Escaped Assassination Plot — Gabe Whisnant (Newsweek) — https://www.newsweek.com/gustavo-petro-escaped-assassination-attempt-helicopter-11500384 — The article content was not provided in the input beyond the title and URL. All Other Reporting * Chief of Naval Operations Unveils “Fighting Instructions” at U.S. Naval War College — U.S. Navy (Office o

    32 min

  2. 2D AGO

    Iran Crackdown, US–Iran Nuclear Signaling, Russian Peace Pressure, and Global Force Posture Shifts

    This episode covers the most consequential security developments shaping the current strategic environment as of February 9, 2026. In Iran and the Middle East, we examine Tehran’s arrest of senior reformist figures following nationwide protests, concurrent IRGC ballistic missile testing, and emerging Iranian signals offering limited nuclear-only concessions in exchange for full sanctions relief, alongside intensified US force posture movements involving Patriot and THAAD deployments and growing pressure on Lebanon’s government to confront Hezbollah. In Russia and Europe, the focus shifts to Moscow’s renewed effort to blame the United States for stalled peace efforts, Lavrov’s explicit reiteration of Russia’s maximalist war aims for Ukraine, and ongoing battlefield realities marked by incremental advances, inflated Russian reporting, and information operations. The episode also covers mounting economic pressure on Russia through India’s reduction of Russian oil purchases, US interdictions of shadow fleet tankers, and continued airspace probing from Belarus into NATO territory. In China and Asia, we assess the PLA’s evolving large-scale combat operations doctrine, intensifying pressure on Taiwan through coercive signaling below the threshold of war, advances in Chinese naval strike capabilities, and internal command-and-control vulnerabilities driven by political centralization and leadership purges. The episode concludes with a foundational analytical segment drawing on John Boyd’s Destruction and Creation, applying Boyd’s framework of cognitive adaptation and decision-cycle dominance to current Russian, Iranian, and Chinese behavior, and highlighting why the ability—or refusal—to discard outdated mental models is becoming a decisive factor in modern competition and conflict. Russia and Europe * Russian Armed Forces Division in a Positional Defense — TRADOC G-2, Threats and Capabilities (U.S. Army TRADOC G-2) — https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/Russia%20Landing%20Zone/ThreatTemp_Russia_03_Division_Positional_Defense.pdf — The report outlines how a Russian division conducts a depth-oriented positional defense emphasizing echelonment, centralized artillery fires, reserves, and deliberate counterattacks to attrit and halt an attacking force. * Russia Using Information Confrontation as a Weapons System — TRADOC G-2, Threats and Capabilities (U.S. Army TRADOC G-2 Intelligence Post) — https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/Russia%20Landing%20Zone/Russia_Information_Confrontation.pdf — The assessment describes how Russia integrates information confrontation across strategic, operational, and tactical levels to manipulate perceptions, degrade C5ISR, and influence adversary decision-making. * Eight Days – then it’s over — Tom Tugendhat (The Reset) — * — The article reports that UK military exercises show British ammunition stockpiles would be exhausted within eight days during high-intensity peer conflict. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-9-2026/ — The assessment documents Russia’s continued incremental ground operations, diplomatic messaging, long-range strikes, and economic pressure points across Ukraine as of February 9, 2026. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 9, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-9-2026/ — The update details Iranian nuclear negotiation signaling, internal crackdowns, proxy activity, missile testing, and regional developments across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. * Iran Arrests Prominent Reformist Politicians, Cites Links to US and Israel — Al Jazeera Staff (Al Jazeera) — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/9/iran-arrests-prominent-reformists-over-deadly-january-unrest — Iranian authorities arrested senior reformist figures on February 9, 2026, accusing them of coordinating with foreign actors during January protests. * A-10 Warthog Protects Mine-Hunting Littoral Combat Ship In Persian Gulf Drill — Tyler Rogoway (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/a-10-warthogs-protect-mine-hunting-littoral-combat-ship-in-arabian-gulf-exercise — U.S. A-10C aircraft conducted maritime force protection exercises with USS Santa Barbara in the Persian Gulf to counter small boats and drone threats. * Laser-Guided Rocket-Armed F-15E Strike Eagles Make Super Bowl Cameo Appearance — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/laser-guided-rocket-armed-f-15e-strike-eagles-make-super-bowl-cameo-appearance — APKWS-armed F-15E Strike Eagles deployed to Jordan were featured during Super Bowl LX, highlighting their counter-drone mission in the Middle East. * USAF Middle East Activity Update – Airlift and Tanker Movements — Armchair Admiral (X) — * — Open-source tracking shows over 120 U.S. airlift and tanker flights supporting air defense and force protection deployments into the CENTCOM area since mid-January 2026. * 2/9 Air Defense Move Update – USAF/Army Airlift to CENTCOM — TheIntelFrog (X) — * — The update reports that U.S. air and missile defense deployments to the Middle East resumed at high tempo and are nearing completion as of February 9, 2026. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * How China Fights Against a U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team — TRADOC G-2, Threats and Capabilities (U.S. Army TRADOC G-2) — https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/China%20Landing%20Zone/2026FEB04_T2COMG2_How_CHI_Fights_LSCO_Assessment1-1.1_digital%201.pdf — The assessment describes how a PLA Heavy Combined Arms Brigade conducts system-focused large-scale combat operations against a U.S. BCT through multidomain shaping, penetration, and exploitation. * China’s Fastest Anti-Ship Missile May Have Quietly Entered Naval Service — Christopher McFadden (Straight Arrow News) — https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-fastest-anti-ship-missile-enter-service — Imagery suggests China’s YJ-15 air-launched anti-ship missile may be operational on carrier-capable fighters, indicating expanded maritime strike capability. * Xi Jinping Can Never Trust His Own Military — Deng Yuwen (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/09/china-xi-generals-military-zhang-youxia-liu-zhenli/ — The article reports that Xi Jinping’s ongoing purges of senior PLA leaders reflect persistent distrust and centralized control within China’s military. * Deterrence Won’t Fail in the Taiwan Strait — It Will Be Bypassed — J. William DeMarco (War on the Rocks) — https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/deterrence-wont-fail-in-the-taiwan-strait-it-will-be-bypassed/ — The article argues that China is using sustained coercion and ambiguity short of war to pressure Taiwan and bypass traditional deterrence frameworks. * Beijing’s Growth Model Is Still Broken — Dinny McMahon (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/beijings-growth-model-still-broken-dinny-mcmahon — The article reports that China’s export- and investment-driven growth strategy continues to generate domestic economic imbalances and global trade friction. Western Hemisphere * US Navy’s New Laser Weapon Downs Four Drones at Sea — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/us-navys-new-laser-weapon-downs-four-drones-at-sea/ — The U.S. Navy’s HELIOS laser system successfully downed four drones during a counter-UAS exercise at sea, demonstrating multi-target engagement capability. * Navy Pilot to Receive Medal of Honor 75 Years After Saving Lives in Korean War — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/navy-pilot-to-receive-medal-of-honor-75-years-after-saving-lives-in-korean-war/ — Retired Navy Capt. E. Royce Williams will receive the Medal of Honor for downing Soviet-flown MiG-15s during a 1952 Korean War dogfight. All Other Reporting * US Navy Aircraft Carrier Status Overview — TheIntelFrog (X) — * — As of February 9, 2026, only two U.S. Navy aircraft carriers are deployed, with most of the force constrained by maintenance or training cycles. * USAF CORONET Movement – F-35A Deployment to Europe — Armchair Admiral (X) — * — Open-source tracking shows Vermont ANG F-35A aircraft deploying to Europe via a coordinated CORONET movement supported by KC-135 tankers. * USAF Aerial Refueling Force Disposition – Europe and CENTCOM — DefenceGeek (X) — * — The update identifies approximately 63–64 U.S. aerial refueling aircraft positioned across Europe and CENTCOM as of February 9, 2026. * Destruction and Creation — John R. Boyd (coljohnboyd.com) —https://www.coljohnboyd.com/#pdf-destruction-and-creation — Boyd’s 1976 paper outlines a theory of competitive advantage based on the continual destruction and reconstruction of mental models to adapt to changing reality. Destruction and Creation as an Analytic Lens: Competing in Systems, Cognition, and Tempo China – Large-Scale Combat Operations and Systems Confrontation Source Link: How China Fights Against a U.S. Army Brigade Combat Team (TRADOC G-2, Feb 2026) Alignment Strength: Strong Assessment:PLA doctrine closely reflects Boyd’s core warning: victory comes from collapsing the adversary’s mental and operational coherence faster than they can reframe reality. The PLA’s emphasis on systems confrontation—targeting C2, ISR, fires, sustainment, and decision cycles rather than force-on-force attrition—mirrors Boyd’s argument that advantage accrues to actors who can destroy the opponent’s conceptual model and impose disorder faster than it can be reconstructed. Application vs. Violation:China is applying Boyd’s framework deliberately. Extended shaping operations, deception, EW, cyber, and joint fires are designed to invalidate U.S. BCT as

    42 min
  3. Russia Escalates Strikes on Ukraine, Iran Rebuilds Missiles as Talks Stall, Israel Signals Unilateral Action, and the U.S. Accelerates Drone, Bomber, and Munitions Posture

    3D AGO

    Russia Escalates Strikes on Ukraine, Iran Rebuilds Missiles as Talks Stall, Israel Signals Unilateral Action, and the U.S. Accelerates Drone, Bomber, and Munitions Posture

    This episode covers a week of high-impact developments across major theaters. In Europe, Russia intensifies long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy and nuclear-linked infrastructure while limited cross-border activity and U.S.-imposed negotiation timelines shape the information and diplomatic battlefield. In the Middle East, indirect U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Oman fail to produce progress as satellite imagery shows Iran rapidly rebuilding ballistic missile facilities, Israel warns it may strike alone if missile thresholds are crossed, and the UK reinforces RAF Akrotiri with F-35Bs amid rising regional tension. In Asia and the global maritime domain, Japan’s snap election delivers Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a supermajority to pursue defense reforms, China advances high-speed helicopter programs, and Beijing’s state-linked port network across Africa signals long-term naval positioning. In the Western Hemisphere, the U.S. moves to accelerate lethality and sustainment through one-way attack drone competitions, expanded bomber and fighter force-structure recommendations, ammunition acquisition reform, and new critical mineral stockpiling. The episode concludes by applying Stratagems for Desperate Situations as an analytic lens, examining how deception, layered tactics, and managed escalation are shaping state behavior across today’s conflicts. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 7, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-7-2026/ — ISW reported that Russia launched 408 drones and 39 missiles overnight on February 6–7 targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure and high-voltage substations supporting nuclear power plants, while noting reported U.S. pressure for a March 2026 peace-deal target and that GRU First Deputy Head Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev survived a February 6 assassination attempt. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2026/ — ISW reported on February 8 that Russia is using limited cross-border activity in northern Sumy/Kharkiv for informational effects amid an unverified MoD claim of seizing Sydorivka, while also noting reports of Russian communications issues after SpaceX blocked unregistered Starlink terminals and that Ukraine confirmed January strikes damaged facilities at Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch site. * At least 6 injured in grenade attack on beauty salon in southeastern France — İlayda Çakırtekin (Anadolu Agency) — https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/at-least-6-injured-in-grenade-attack-on-beauty-salon-in-southeastern-france/3822861 — Anadolu Agency reported that on February 6 a grenade was thrown into a beauty salon in Grenoble, injuring at least six people including a five-year-old, and that the perpetrators fled the scene. * U.S. gave Ukraine and Russia June deadline to reach peace agreement, Zelenskyy says — Associated Press (NPR) — https://www.npr.org/2026/02/08/nx-s1-5705967/u-s-gave-ukraine-and-russia-june-deadline-to-reach-peace-agreement-zelenskyy-says — NPR reported on February 8 that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the U.S. set a June 2026 deadline for Ukraine and Russia to reach a peace agreement and that Russia’s overnight strikes forced Ukrainian nuclear power plants to reduce output. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 7, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-7-2026/ — ISW reported on February 7 that the U.S. and Iran planned another talks round early the week of February 8 with positions unchanged, alongside a February 6 U.S. order imposing a conditional 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran and reporting that Iraq received 2,250 ISIS detainees from Syria since January 21. * Iran Update, February 8, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-8-2026/ — ISW reported on February 8 that U.S.-Israel consultations would intensify ahead of a February 11 Trump–Netanyahu meeting while U.S.–Iran talks in Oman showed no Iranian shift on missiles or enrichment, and that Iran showcased and reportedly tested the Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile amid regional signaling. * U.S.-Iran Indirect Nuclear Talks Fail to Make Significant Progress — Alexandra Sharp (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/06/us-iran-indirect-nuclear-talks-oman-trump-military-force-araghchi/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921 — Foreign Policy reported that indirect U.S.–Iran talks in Muscat on February 6 produced no major breakthrough amid persistent mistrust, with the U.S. including CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper and announcing new sanctions tied to Iran’s oil “shadow fleet.” * Iran Is at Work on Missile and Nuclear Sites, Satellite Images Show — Samuel Granados and Aurélien Breeden (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/world/middleeast/iran-missile-nuclear-repairs.html — The New York Times reported on February 6 that satellite imagery analysis found Iran repaired multiple ballistic missile facilities damaged in June 2025 relatively quickly while major nuclear sites showed slower, limited aboveground reconstruction. * Israel warns Trump: We may act alone if Iran crosses ballistic missile red line — Avi Ashkenazi (The Jerusalem Post) — https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-885948 — The Jerusalem Post reported on February 8 that Israeli defense officials told U.S. counterparts Israel is prepared to act unilaterally if Iran crosses an Israeli-defined ballistic missile “red line,” while saying Israel assesses it is not yet at that threshold. * UK Reinforces RAF Akrotiri With Deployment of Six F-35Bs — Kai Greet (The Aviationist) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/07/uk-reinforces-akrotiri-f35bs/ — The Aviationist reported that the UK deployed six RAF F-35B aircraft to RAF Akrotiri on February 6 to bolster the base’s defensive posture amid heightened Middle East tensions. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * New Photos Raise Questions About China’s Coaxial-Rotor Helicopter Knockoff — Stefano D’Urso (The Aviationist) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/06/new-images-chinas-coaxial-helicopter-knockoff/ — The Aviationist reported on February 6 that new imagery suggests China may have built a second compound helicopter demonstrator resembling U.S. X2-derived concepts, following an earlier S-97 Raider–like sighting reported in 2025. * How Japan’s prime minister will use her massive new mandate — Economist Staff (The Economist) — https://www.economist.com/asia/2026/02/08/how-japans-prime-minister-will-use-her-massive-new-mandate — The Economist reported that Japan’s ruling LDP won a commanding lower-house majority in the February 8 snap election, giving Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a strong mandate to pursue fiscal measures and security reforms. * China encircles Africa for naval dominance — Ben Farmer (The Telegraph) — https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/04/china-encircles-africa-for-naval-dominance/ — The Telegraph reported on February 4 that Chinese state-linked firms are involved as builders, financiers, or operators at 78 ports across 32 African countries, with analysts warning many ports are capable of servicing warships. Western Hemisphere * Wearing smart glasses in uniform jeopardizes OPSEC, Air Force says — Cristina Stassis (Military Times) — https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-military/2026/02/06/wearing-smart-glasses-in-uniform-jeopardizes-opsec-air-force-says/ — Military Times reported that a memo dated 9 January updated U.S. Air Force dress and appearance policy to prohibit airmen from wearing smart glasses with photo, video, or AI capabilities while in uniform due to operational security concerns. * Rare earth miners jump as Trump announces establishment of critical mineral reserve — Yun Li (CNBC) — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/02/rare-earth-miners-jump-as-trump-is-reportedly-eyeing-mineral-stockpile-.html?_bhlid=8c381b887a56568847b1277c682c92adfda59ced — CNBC reported on February 2 that President Donald Trump announced “Project Vault,” a U.S. critical mineral reserve pairing $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan, sending shares of several rare earth miners higher. * Pentagon picks 25 vendors to show off one-way attack drones in the Gauntlet competition — Ashley Roque (Defense News) — https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/pentagon-picks-25-vendors-to-show-off-one-way-attack-drones-in-the-gauntlet-competition/?_bhlid=668a28432a768419232dc6aac6e2161a88735114 — Defense News reported on February 3 that DoD selected 25 companies to demonstrate low-cost one-way attack drones during “the Gauntlet” at Fort Benning from mid-February into March, with prototype awards expected to total $150 million. * DOJ Arrests Third Suspect in 2012 Benghazi Attack After Decade-Long Pursuit — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/doj-arrests-third-suspect-in-2012-benghazi-attack-after-decade-long-pursuit/ — SOFX reported on February 7 that DOJ announced the arrest and extradition of Zubayr Al-Bakoush, who was first charged in a sealed 2015 complaint, to face an unsealed eight-count indictment tied to the 2012 Benghazi attack. * New Report: Air Force Needs 200 B-21s, 300 F-47s to Deny Enemy ‘Sanctuaries’ — Greg Hadley (Air & Space Forces Magazine) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/new-report-air-force-b-21s-f-47s-enemy-sanctuaries/ — Air & Space Forces Magazine reported on February 4 that a Mitchell Institute report recommended the Air Force procure at least 200 B-21 bombers and 300

    28 min
  4. Taiwan Accelerates Asymmetric Defense as Russia Probes NATO Cohesion, Iran Sets Negotiation Red Lines, and China Expands Military Control, Signaling, and Espionage Activity

    5D AGO

    Taiwan Accelerates Asymmetric Defense as Russia Probes NATO Cohesion, Iran Sets Negotiation Red Lines, and China Expands Military Control, Signaling, and Espionage Activity

    This episode surveys accelerating military and political activity across the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East, with emphasis on pre-conflict shaping rather than active combat. In Asia, Taiwan advances asymmetric deterrence through mobile Harpoon deployments, mass-produced UAV integration with the United States, and ground-force restructuring, while Beijing tightens political control over its defense sector, expands naval capacity, promotes space-warfare signaling, and faces multiple Europe-based espionage disruptions. In Europe, Russia sustains maximalist war aims amid stalled negotiations, conducts information and escalation signaling, and suffers command-and-control disruption as Ukraine strikes strategic missile infrastructure and Starlink access is constrained, while NATO wargaming and French naval leadership highlight readiness gaps for rapid, ambiguous conflict. In the Middle East, Iran–U.S. talks remain limited to position-setting, with Tehran reiterating non-negotiable red lines and Hezbollah showing signs of internal strain. Across domains, today’s reporting reinforces enduring patterns of indirect coercion, access exploitation, perception management, and early isolation shaping outcomes before open warfare begins. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update, February 6, 2026 — CTP-ISW (Institute for the Study of War) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-6-2026/ — Iran and the United States held framework-setting talks in Oman on February 6 amid firm Iranian red lines on enrichment, missiles, and regional proxies, alongside Hezbollah leadership changes, new U.S. sanctions, and regional security engagements involving Lebanon, Syria, and Azerbaijan. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-5-2026/ — Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks continued in Abu Dhabi alongside POW exchanges as Russia reaffirmed maximalist war aims, escalated nuclear rhetoric after New START’s expiration, and sustained missile and ground operations without decisive breakthroughs. * Ukraine Hits Russian Oreshnik Launch Site With Flamingo Missiles — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/ukraine-hits-russian-oreshnik-launch-site-with-flamingo-missiles/ — Ukrainian forces conducted January 2026 long-range strikes using FP-5 Flamingo missiles and drones against Russia’s Kapustin Yar site, damaging facilities used for Oreshnik ballistic missile preparations. * ‘Preparing for war:’ At French naval conference, a grim realism — Christina Mackenzie (Breaking Defense) — https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/preparing-for-war-at-french-naval-conference-a-grim-realism/ — French and allied naval leaders warned Europe is unprepared for near-term high-intensity conflict and urged accelerated shipbuilding, munitions production, and integration of manned-unmanned forces. * The Russian economy is finally stagnating. What does it mean for the war – and for Putin? — Alex Clark (The Guardian) — https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/06/the-russian-economy-is-finally-stagnating-what-does-it-mean-for-the-war-and-for-putin — Russia’s wartime economy has slowed into stagnation with declining energy revenues and rising taxes, increasing long-term fiscal risk while still sustaining near-term war funding. * He played Putin and broke NATO in three days — Alexander Gabuev (Meduza) — https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/02/05/he-played-putin-and-broke-nato-in-three-days-alexander-gabuev-the-scholar-behind-an-alarming-wargame-tells-meduza-how-he-did-it — A German-led wargame showed Russia exploiting political hesitation and hybrid tactics to seize a Baltic city within three simulated days before NATO could coordinate an effective response. * Greece and France charge suspects in separate China-linked espionage cases — Euronews — https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/06/greece-and-france-charge-suspects-in-separate-china-linked-espionage-cases — Greek and French authorities charged suspects in unrelated cases involving alleged Chinese espionage targeting military technologies and satellite communications linked to NATO systems. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * China’s Intelligence Community: An Overview — Alex Papastergiou (Grey Dynamics) — https://greydynamics.com/chinas-intelligence-community-an-overview-cic/ — The article details China’s intelligence system as a CCP-controlled, whole-of-society ecosystem integrating civilian, military, and Party organs through overlapping authorities and legal frameworks. * China & Taiwan Update, February 6, 2026 — ISW-CDOT (Institute for the Study of War – China Domain / Taiwan) — https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-february-6-2026/ — Xi Jinping’s political purges in the PLA, renewed CCP-KMT engagement, Taiwan budget disputes, and persistent PRC gray-zone pressure shaped cross-strait and regional dynamics. * With the Latest Deliveries, the Chinese Navy Would Now Have a Fleet of 35 Type 052D Destroyers in Service — Redacción Zona Militar (Zona Militar) — https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2026/02/05/with-the-latest-deliveries-the-chinese-navy-would-now-have-a-fleet-of-35-type-052d-destroyers-in-service/ — The PLAN reached at least 35 operational Type 052D destroyers following recent commissions, reinforcing escort and air-defense capacity for carrier and independent operations. * China Secretly Testing Nuclear Weapons And Covering Its Tracks, U.S. Alleges — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/nuclear/china-secretly-testing-nuclear-weapons-and-covering-its-tracks-u-s-alleges — U.S. officials accused China of conducting concealed yield-producing nuclear tests, claims Beijing denied and the CTBTO said were not supported by monitoring data. * Taiwan-U.S. jointly developed drone completes system integration — Sean Lin (Central News Agency, Taiwan) — https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202602060014 — Taiwan’s NCSIST and U.S. firm Kratos completed system integration of the Mighty Hornet IV UAV, establishing a baseline for flight testing and future production. * Taiwan receives first land-based Harpoon missile systems — Dylan Malyasov (Defense Blog) — https://defence-blog.com/taiwan-receives-first-land-based-harpoon-missile-systems/ — Taiwan began receiving components of U.S.-made Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems, marking initial fielding of a mobile anti-ship capability. * Taiwan-US ‘firepower’ center to hone asymmetric warfare tactics — Military Times staff (Military Times) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2026/02/02/taiwan-us-firepower-center-to-hone-asymmetric-warfare-tactics/ — The U.S. and Taiwan are preparing a Joint Firepower Cooperation Center focused on asymmetric air and maritime defense against a potential PLA attack. * Taiwan is reworking its ground forces. It could unlock new ways of fighting with new tech — Chris Panella (Business Insider) — https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwans-ground-forces-restructure-makes-using-new-weapons-easier-2026-1 — Taiwan reorganized armored and mechanized units into combined arms brigades to better integrate drones, AI, and new U.S.-supplied systems. * China removes 3 lawmakers with defence-sector ties after top general probed — Reuters (Beijing) — https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-removes-3-lawmakers-with-defence-sector-ties-after-top-general-probed — China removed three lawmakers linked to defense and nuclear sectors following an investigation into senior PLA leadership. * China’s space aircraft carrier: superweapon or propaganda? — Alexander Freund (DW) — https://www.dw.com/en/china-taiwan-space-aircraft-luanniao-carrier-weapon-military-technology/a-75726514 — Analysts assessed China’s promoted Luanniao space “aircraft carrier” concept as unrealistic in the near term and primarily strategic signaling. Western Hemisphere * Raytheon to Radically Boost Production of Air Force’s Main Dogfighting Missile — Matthew Cox (Military.com) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/raytheon-production-amraam-air-force/ — Raytheon announced a multiyear agreement to raise AIM-120 AMRAAM production to at least 1,900 missiles annually to meet U.S. and allied demand. * Latest NDAA Supports AI Safety, Innovation, and China Decoupling — Jakub Kraus (Lawfare) — https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/latest-ndaa-supports-ai-safety--innovation--and-china-decoupling — The FY2026 NDAA expanded authorities for military AI adoption, safety oversight, and technology decoupling from China. * Air Force Welcomes First CW5 in 34 Years — Airman 1st Class Nelvis Sera (Maxwell Air Force Base Public Affairs) — https://www.afaccessionscenter.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/4397060/air-force-welcomes-first-cw5-in-34-years/ — The U.S. Air Force inducted CW5 Jason Godwin, restoring the CW5 rank to active-duty service for the first time since 1992. * Hunt For Container Launchers Packed With Drones Kicked-Off By Pentagon — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/hunt-for-container-launchers-packed-with-drones-kicked-off-by-pentagon — The Pentagon launched a DIU effort to develop containerized systems for mass deployment and recovery of uncrewed aerial systems with minimal personnel. All Other Reporting * Batwing-like fighter jet joins US Navy race, aims 4× speed of sound — Sujita Sinha (Interesting Engineering) — https://interestingengineering.com/military/batwing-like-navy-fighter-concept — Stavatti Aerospace proposed the SM-39 Razor concept for the Navy’s F/A-XX program, claiming Mach 4 performance despite skepticism over feasibility. * Stratagems for Gaining Ground (26–31) — Imperial Combat Arts — https://imperi

    33 min
  5. Iran Talks Under Fire, Russia Stalls Peace, China Raises the Baseline: Coercive Diplomacy and Strategic Confusion Across Key Theaters

    6D AGO

    Iran Talks Under Fire, Russia Stalls Peace, China Raises the Baseline: Coercive Diplomacy and Strategic Confusion Across Key Theaters

    Today’s reporting highlights a pattern of diplomacy conducted under pressure rather than de-escalation: U.S.–Iran nuclear talks begin in Oman amid sustained U.S. air and missile defense deployments and explicit Iranian missile signaling; Russia, Ukraine, and the United States conclude another round of talks with no movement on territory or security guarantees as Moscow pairs negotiations with continued strikes and deepens occupation governance; and China continues to normalize high-tempo military activity across the Indo-Pacific while the U.S. and Philippines expand defensive posture and monitoring. Across regions, negotiations are used alongside force, signaling, and structural consolidation to shape perception and constrain opponents, reinforcing that dialogue alone is not altering core objectives or trajectories in the near term. Iran and Middle East * Middle East Preparing For War Ahead Of U.S.-Iran Negotiations — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/middle-east-preparing-for-war-ahead-of-u-s-iran-negotiations — On 5 February 2026, the United States, Israel, and Iran escalated regional military readiness with force deployments, threats, and heightened alerts as last-ditch U.S.-Iran talks in Oman approached. * Mediators propose framework for crucial Iran-US talks this week — Virginia Pietromarchi (Al Jazeera) — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/4/mediators-propose-framework-for-crucial-iran-us-talks-this-week — On 4 February 2026, mediators from Qatar, Türkiye, and Egypt proposed a framework for U.S.-Iran talks including a temporary halt to enrichment, uranium transfer, and limits on missiles and proxy support. * Iran Update, February 5, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (CTP-ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-5-2026/ — Reporting on 5 February 2026 assessed uncertainty over the scope of upcoming U.S.-Iran talks amid Iranian nuclear reconstitution efforts, missile and proxy reaffirmations, and regional activity in Iraq and Syria. * US works on transition plans for Iran even as it heads to Oman for nuclear talks — Thomas Watkins (The National) — https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/02/05/iran-opposition-talks-florida/ — On 5 February 2026, reporting indicated the Trump administration was consulting Iranian-American figures on potential transition scenarios while simultaneously pursuing nuclear talks with Iran in Oman. * Pakistan deploys helicopters, drones to end standoff with Baloch rebels — Reuters / AFP (Al Jazeera) — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/4/pakistan-deploys-helicopters-drones-to-end-standoff-with-baloch-rebels — On 4 February 2026, Pakistani forces used helicopters and drones to retake Nushki after a multi-day clash with Baloch separatists. Russia and Europe * Ukraine-Russia Talks End With Little Progress and Hints of Impasse — Kim Barker (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/world/europe/russia-ukraine-peace-talks.html — On 5 February 2026, trilateral U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi ended after hours with only a prisoner exchange announced and no movement on territorial or security issues. * Russian Occupation Update, February 5, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-february-5-2026/ — As of 5 February 2026, Russia intensified coercive governance in occupied Ukraine through prosecutions, deportations, child militarization, resource extraction, and infrastructure integration. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-4-2026/ — On 4 February 2026, ISW reported continued Russian battlefield interdiction operations, drone force expansion, and minimal diplomatic progress during Abu Dhabi talks. * The Limits of Russian Power: Why Putin Isn’t Thriving in Trump’s Anarchic World — Michael Kimmage and Hanna Notte (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/limits-russian-power — Published 5 February 2026, the article argued Russia’s war in Ukraine has constrained Moscow’s global influence and increased dependence on China despite U.S. foreign policy disruption. * What The Sunset Of Key U.S.-Russia Nuclear Deal Could Mean For America’s Stockpile — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/nuclear/what-the-sunset-of-key-u-s-russia-nuclear-deal-could-mean-for-americas-stockpile — On 5 February 2026, the expiration of New START ended binding limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces, raising prospects for warhead uploads and posture changes. * Trump says he won’t extend nuclear arms treaty with Russia — Jack Detsch (Politico) — https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/05/trump-nuclear-arms-treaty-russia-00767497 — On 5 February 2026, President Donald Trump said the United States would let New START expire and seek a new arms control agreement with Russia. * US and Russia agree to resume regular military contact — James Landale (BBC) — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgjw30vx5z6o — On 5 February 2026, U.S. and Russian officials agreed in Abu Dhabi to re-establish regular high-level military-to-military dialogue. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * Tracking China’s Increased Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific in 2025 — Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Leon Li, Truly Tinsley (CSIS) — https://chinapower.csis.org/china-increased-military-activities-indo-pacific-2025/ — Published 5 February 2026, the CSIS assessment documented increased PLA air, naval, and carrier operations across the Indo-Pacific during 2025. * Navy to set up monitoring station at Tubbataha — Cristina Chi (Philstar.com) — https://philstar.com/headlines/2026/02/05/2505987/navy-set-monitoring-station-tubbataha — On 5 February 2026, the Philippine Navy announced plans to establish a monitoring detachment at Tubbataha Reefs to track vessel movements in the Sulu Sea. * U.S. Army Quietly Stands Up Rotational Force in the Philippines — Aaron-Matthew Lariosa (USNI News) — https://news.usni.org/2026/02/02/u-s-army-quietly-stands-up-rotational-force-in-the-philippines — Published 2 February 2026, reporting revealed the U.S. Army established Army Rotational Force-Philippines to expand training and defense cooperation. Western Hemisphere * US Air Force Conducts Live Test of New Standoff Cruise Missile — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/us-air-force-conducts-live-test-of-new-standoff-cruise-missile/ — On 21 January 2026, the U.S. Air Force conducted a live-warhead test of the Extended Range Attack Munition at Eglin Air Force Base. All Other Reporting * Thirty-Six Stratagems — Stratagems for Confused Situations (Stratagems 20–25) — Anonymous (Imperial Combat Arts) — https://imperialcombatarts.com/thirty-six-stratagems.html — This source outlines classical Chinese strategic principles emphasizing deception, alliance management, and organizational disruption in complex conflict environments. * From space to the seabed, critical infrastructure is becoming more vulnerable, experts warn: “People don’t realize how dependent we are” — Sharmila Kuthunur (Space.com) — https://www.space.com/space-exploration/satellites/from-space-to-the-seabed-critical-infrastructure-is-becoming-more-vulnerable-experts-warn-people-dont-realize-how-dependent-we-are — Published 30 January 2026, experts warned that growing reliance on satellites and undersea cables is outpacing legal and security protections. * Islamic State-Linked Attacks in Nigeria Claim 162 Lives — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/islamic-state-linked-attacks-in-nigeria-claim-162-lives/ — On 5 February 2026, coordinated attacks attributed to Islamic State–linked militants killed at least 162 civilians in Nigeria’s Kwara state. Source IdentificationThirty-Six Stratagems — Stratagems for Confused Situations (Stratagems 20–25) — anonymous, Warring States tradition Executive SynthesisThese stratagems argue that advantage in complex or deteriorating situations is created less by force-on-force strength than by manipulating perception, tempo, and relational geometry: confuse cognition, control attention, isolate decisive moments, exploit alliances instrumentally, and dismantle the organizational logic that makes an enemy effective. Key Concepts and Mechanisms * Cognitive Disruption (20: Trouble the Water): Induce uncertainty through the unusual or unexpected to degrade enemy judgment and slow decision cycles; distraction creates openings. * Deception for Disengagement (21: Golden Cicada): Use a credible façade to fix enemy attention while withdrawing forces to preserve combat power and regain initiative. * Decisive Containment (22: Shut the Door): When conditions allow, encircle and finish to prevent regeneration of threat; incomplete defeat prolongs conflict, reckless pursuit invites reversal. * Relational Geometry (23: Befriend the Distant): Manage threat by aligning with non-adjacent actors to concentrate against proximate rivals; immediate competitors pose greater danger than distant peers. * Instrumental Alliances (24: Borrow the Road): Leverage allied resources to defeat a common enemy, recognizing alliances as contingent tools rather than permanent bonds. * Structural Sabotage (25: Rotten Timbers): Undermine effectiveness by attacking doctrine, routines, and coordination—the connective tissue of force—rather than mass alone. Decision-Relevant Takeaways * Shape the fight by attacking how the adversary thinks and organizes, not just what they field. * Use deception to preserve options—especially withdrawal—when defeat risks annihilation. * Seek decisive closure when feasible; otherwise, manage disengagement deliberately. * Assess power competitively within

    25 min
  6. Russia Strikes Ukraine’s Energy Grid, New START Expires, Iran Seeks Talks Under Military Pressure

    FEB 5

    Russia Strikes Ukraine’s Energy Grid, New START Expires, Iran Seeks Talks Under Military Pressure

    This episode covers Russia’s resumption of large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during extreme winter conditions, signaling the collapse of the energy strike moratorium while Moscow makes limited battlefield gains and sustains maximalist war aims. It also examines the expiration of the New START treaty, ending the last remaining limits and verification measures on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces and marking a shift toward a less constrained nuclear environment. In the Middle East, reporting focuses on Iran’s internal crackdown following nationwide protests, Tehran’s decision to authorize nuclear talks with the United States while warning of regional war, and continued U.S. military operations and force posture amid heightened tensions. The episode also addresses U.S. operational lessons from recent long-range strike missions, including tanker capacity shortfalls, and the temporary disruption of U.S. transiting operations after a KC-46 mishap at Morón Air Base. In Asia, the episode highlights China’s use of dual-use research vessels to support naval and undersea warfare objectives, political enforcement within the PLA tied to 2027 readiness goals, Taiwan’s deepening alignment with the United States, and allied efforts to adapt tactically through rapid innovation and decentralized production, including battlefield 3D printing of drone systems. Russia and Europe * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-3-2026/ — Russia resumed large-scale missile-and-drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on 2–3 February 2026 while making limited confirmed ground advances and reiterating maximalist war aims ahead of talks in Abu Dhabi and New START’s expiration. * In largest missile attack of winter, Russia targets Ukraine’s power plants amid brutal freeze — Lucy Pakhnyuk, Dmytro Basmat, Kateryna Hodunova, Tania Myronyshena (Kyiv Independent) — https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-mass-attack-across-ukraine-signaling-end-of-energy-ceasefire/ — On 3 February 2026 (updated 3 February 2026), Russia launched 71 missiles and 450 drones against Ukraine, striking energy infrastructure across multiple regions and leaving widespread heating and power disruptions during extreme cold. * Fears of new arms race as US-Russia nuclear weapons treaty due to expire — Jonathan Beale (BBC News) — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g31n4ey9go — Published 6 February 2026, the report describes New START expiring without replacement, removing caps and transparency measures on U.S. and Russian deployed strategic nuclear forces. * With New START Set to Expire, Experts Foresee a ‘New Era’ of Nuclear Policy — Air & Space Forces Magazine (Air and Space Forces Magazine) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/with-new-start-set-to-expire-experts-foresee-a-new-era-of-nuclear-policy/ — On 4 February 2026, the article outlines expert debate over risks and opportunities as New START expires on 5 February 2026 with no successor agreement and diminished verification since 2023. * Statement On the Expiration of the Last Treaty Restricting the World’s Two Largest Nuclear Arsenals (New START) — Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and Council for a Livable World (Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and Council for a Livable World) — https://armscontrolcenter.org/statement-on-the-expiration-of-the-last-treaty-restricting-the-worlds-two-largest-nuclear-arsenals-new-start/ — On 4 February 2026, the organizations warned that New START’s expiration on 5 February 2026 removes limits and verification and urged voluntary restraint and negotiations on a successor framework. * A key nuclear weapons treaty is ending. It’s a sign of Russia’s eroding superpower status — Matthew Chance (CNN) — https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/04/world/new-start-treaty-expiration-nuclear-weapons-intl — On 4 February 2026, CNN assessed that the end of New START highlights the collapse of the last U.S.–Russia arms control framework and described Russia’s reliance on nuclear parity as a marker of great-power status. * Russian spy spacecraft have intercepted Europe’s key satellites, officials believe — Sam Jones, Peggy Hollinger, Ian Bott (Financial Times) — https://archive.is/6A4s6 — Published 4 February 2026, European officials said Russian satellites Luch-1 and Luch-2 likely intercepted communications from multiple European geostationary satellites by conducting prolonged close-proximity operations in orbit. * Russia Uses Cossacks to Sustain Ideological Support for War — Richard Arnold (Eurasia Daily Monitor) — https://jamestown.org/russia-uses-cossacks-to-sustain-ideological-support-for-war/ — On 3 February 2026, the report describes the Kremlin expanding and institutionalizing Cossack organizations across Russia to reinforce wartime ideology, recruitment, and youth education as the war surpassed the duration of the Great Patriotic War. * Moscow Leverages Extremism in the Balkans — Blerim Vela (Eurasia Daily Monitor) — https://jamestown.org/moscow-leverages-extremism-in-the-balkans/ — On 3 February 2026, the report argues Russia is using extremist movements, Orthodox networks, and sympathetic elites to embed pro-Kremlin illiberal narratives and practices across Western Balkan politics and society. * Ukraine showed a British unit that it needs to 3D-print drone parts and be able to do it close to the fight — Sinéad Baker (Business Insider) — https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-showed-uk-unit-needed-3d-print-drone-parts-war-2026-2 — On 4 February 2026, the report says the UK’s 1st Battalion Irish Guards began using 3D printing to produce drone parts and bodies and is working toward mobile, near-front production inspired by Ukrainian practices. Iran and Middle East * Iran Update — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and AEI Critical Threats Project (ISW and AEI Critical Threats Project) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-4-2026/ — On 4 February 2026, the update assesses fragile U.S.–Iran diplomacy ahead of 6 February talks in Oman alongside continued U.S. counter-ISIS strikes and evolving SDF–Syrian government integration dynamics in Syria. * After crushing protests, Iran’s supreme leader now tries to avert a U.S. attack — Lee Keath (Associated Press) — https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/after-crushing-protests-irans-supreme-leader-now-tries-to-avert-a-u-s-attack — On 4 February 2026, the report says Ayatollah Ali Khamenei authorized nuclear talks with the U.S. while warning of regional war after a major crackdown following nationwide protests. * Midnight Hammer Lessons: USAF Needs More Tankers, Munitions — Matthew Cox (Air and Space Forces Magazine) — https://www.airandspaceforces.com/midnight-hammer-lessons-highlight-need-for-more-tankers-and-flexible-munitions/ — On 2 February 2026, the article reports U.S. Air Force leaders said Operation Midnight Hammer highlighted shortfalls in tanker capacity and the need for more flexible penetrating and standoff munitions. * KC-46 Mishap Closes Key European Logistical Hub For U.S. For Days (Updated) — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/kc-46-mishap-closes-key-european-logistical-hub-for-u-s-for-days — Published 3 February 2026, the report says a KC-46 rejected takeoff at Morón Air Base temporarily closed the runway and disrupted U.S. aircraft transiting toward Europe and the Middle East amid heightened Iran-related force flows. * Trouble Is Brewing in Syria: Sustaining the Country’s Progress Requires a More Inclusive Transition — Jerome Drevon and Nanar Hawach (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/trouble-brewing-syria — On 4 February 2026, the authors argue Syria’s post-Assad transition under President Ahmed al-Shara remains fragile due to centralized power and limited political inclusion despite international rehabilitation. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * China’s Blue-Water Research Fleet: Science in Service of Strategy — Ryan D. Martinson (China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College) — https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-notes/19/ — On 4 February 2026, the report argues China’s large blue-water research fleet is a dual-use instrument that collects ocean and seabed data supporting PLA Navy undersea warfare and broader national strategy. * Company Behind Drone-Killing Hellfire Missile-Armed Buggy Set To Get Marine Corps Contract — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/land/company-behind-drone-killing-hellfire-missile-armed-buggy-set-to-get-marine-corps-contract — Published 3 February 2026, the report says the U.S. Marine Corps plans a sole-source contract to V2X for up to 50 Hellfire-armed DASH mobile counter-drone systems with deliveries beginning by 30 May 2026. * Taiwan’s Tron Future unveils AI-guided anti-armor rockets — Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo (Defense News) — https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2026/02/03/taiwans-tron-future-unveils-ai-guided-anti-armor-rockets/ — On 3 February 2026, Tron Future unveiled the T-Scope AI-assisted guidance kit at the Singapore Airshow aimed at improving accuracy of unguided anti-armor rockets and pursuing Taiwanese Army certification by end-2026. * Taiwan Doubles Down on U.S. Partnership, Even as America’s Alliances Fray — Joyu Wang (The Wall Street Journal) — https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/taiwan-doubles-down-on-u-s-partnership-even-as-americas-alliances-fray-a37f8120 — On 3 February 2026, the report says President Lai Ching-te pledged deeper U.S.–Taiwan trade and security ties focused on AI, drones, critical minerals, and non-China supply chains amid shifting alliance dynamics. * More Information Li

    25 min
  7. Feints, Probes, and Power Shifts: Iran Tests Red Lines, Asia Reorders, and Low-Cost Strike Goes Global

    FEB 4

    Feints, Probes, and Power Shifts: Iran Tests Red Lines, Asia Reorders, and Low-Cost Strike Goes Global

    Today’s LOWDOWN examines how modern competition is unfolding through probes, conditioning actions, and incremental gains rather than decisive blows, echoing classic stratagem logic. In the Middle East, Iran tested U.S. naval thresholds with coordinated drone and maritime harassment while Washington paired visible force buildup with planned talks, underscoring parallel deterrence and diplomacy. In Asia, Xi Jinping’s sweeping purge of PLA leadership has hollowed out senior command ranks, North Korea paired missile testing with U.S.–ROK engagement to signal precision strike capability, and Vietnam’s internal defense planning revealed persistent regime fears of U.S. intervention despite upgraded ties. In Europe, the successful Rusty Dagger test highlighted a scalable, low-cost strike model aimed at sustaining Ukraine’s ability to pressure Russian depth. In the Western Hemisphere, a sanctioned Russian cargo aircraft’s landing at a Cuban military airfield signaled Moscow’s continued opportunistic expansion near the United States. The episode closes by tying these developments to enduring confrontation stratagems, clarifying how probing, misdirection, and cumulative small moves are shaping today’s strategic environment. Russia and Europe * Rusty Dagger Low-Cost Cruise Missile Hits Its Target — Thomas Newdick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/watch-rusty-dagger-standoff-missile-now-headed-to-ukraine-hit-its-target — The U.S. Air Force confirmed a successful live-fire test of the Rusty Dagger Extended Range Attack Munition at Eglin on January 21, 2025, supporting plans to provide Ukraine with low-cost air-launched standoff missiles. Iran and Middle East * Washington-Tehran Talks Planned As U.S. Military Buildup Continues — Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/washington-tehran-talks-planned-as-u-s-military-buildup-continues — Reports indicate the United States and Iran are planning talks in Turkey as the U.S. expands regional force posture and Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE publicly restrict use of their territory for offensive operations against Iran. * F-35 From USS Abraham Lincoln Shoots Down Iranian Drone (Updated) — Joseph Trevithick, Howard Altman (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/f-35-from-uss-abraham-lincoln-shoots-down-iranian-drone — A U.S. Navy F-35C from USS Abraham Lincoln shot down an Iranian drone that approached the carrier in the Arabian Sea, and U.S. forces later intervened after IRGC units harassed a U.S.-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. * Evidence Of Mi-28 Havoc Attack Helicopters Delivered To Iran Grows — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/evidence-of-mi-28-havoc-attack-helicopters-delivered-to-iran-grows — Video and imagery circulated on February 3 indicate Iran has likely begun receiving Russian-made Mi-28NE attack helicopters, with additional Il-76 flight activity cited as possible delivery support. * Iran: Mocking Over Protest Deaths On TV Sparks Outrage — Euronews (Euronews) — https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/02/iran-mocking-over-protest-deaths-on-tv-sparks-outrage — Iranian authorities charged staff, pulled a program, and dismissed a channel director after an Ofogh TV segment mocked protesters killed during January demonstrations. * Iran Update, February 3, 2026 — Not stated (CTP-ISW (Institute for the Study of War)) — https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-3-2026/ — CTP-ISW assessed Iran conducted two February 3 probing actions near U.S. naval activity and sought to shift February 6 U.S.-Iran talks from Turkey to Oman while domestic protest activity and regional political-military dynamics continued. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * China’s Disappearing Generals — Amy Chang Chien, Agnes Chang, Chris Buckley (The New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/02/03/world/asia/china-xi-military-purge.html — A New York Times review of Chinese state media and official announcements found that since 2023 Xi Jinping has removed or sidelined most top PLA commanders, leaving many senior posts vacant or recently filled. * Korean Peninsula Update, February 3, 2026 — Not stated (Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and American Enterprise Institute (AEI) – Coalition Defense of Taiwan (CDOT)) — https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/korean-peninsula-update-february-3-2026/ — The update reports U.S. officials emphasized PRC-focused contingencies during a Seoul visit, North Korea tested a 600mm MLRS-linked SRBM event on January 27, and South Korean domestic policy and OPCON transfer planning may affect allied command and Armistice management. * An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war — David Rising and Aniruddha Ghosal (Associated Press) — https://apnews.com/article/vietnam-us-war-planning-china-115c4f9bc69d91e7afe6b4dba7dc460f — An internal Vietnamese Ministry of Defense document from August 2024 describes preparing against a potential U.S. “war of aggression” and frames U.S. actions as a regime-security threat despite upgraded bilateral ties. Western Hemisphere * Sanctioned Russian Cargo Plane That Armed Venezuela Lands at Cuban Military Airfield — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/sanctioned-russian-cargo-plane-that-armed-venezuela-lands-at-cuban-military-airfield/ — A U.S.-sanctioned Russian Il-76TD operated by Aviacon Zitotrans landed at Cuba’s San Antonio de los Baños Air Base on February 1 after transiting multiple countries, following prior deliveries of air defense systems to Venezuela. All Other Reporting * These Planes Are Mimicking Enemy Shahed-136 Drones In U.S. Military War Games — James Deboer (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/air/these-planes-are-mimicking-enemy-shahed-136-drones-in-u-s-military-war-games — During Sentry South 26.1 near Savannah, Georgia, KestrelX flew manned KX-2 aircraft to replicate Shahed-136-style one-way attack drones for U.S. fighter and naval aviation training. * Hardened Structures, Nets For Drone Defense Front And Center In New Pentagon Guidance — Joseph Trevithick (The War Zone) — https://www.twz.com/news-features/hardened-structures-nets-for-drone-defense-front-and-center-in-new-pentagon-guidance — The Pentagon issued guidance emphasizing passive physical hardening measures such as netting, cables, and shielding to protect critical infrastructure from drone threats. * Rising ISIS Threats To US Homeland Drive AFRICOM Airstrikes Against Terrorists In Somalia — Paul Tilsley (Fox News) — https://www.foxnews.com/world/rising-isis-threats-us-homeland-drive-africom-airstrikes-against-terrorists-somalia — AFRICOM leadership said airstrikes in Somalia increased sharply in 2025 and January 2026 against ISIS-Somalia and al-Shabab amid stated concerns about plotting threats to the U.S. homeland and Europe. * Finding the Signal within the Noise: What Information Warriors Need to Know About Human Pattern Recognition — Douglas Wilbur (Irregular Warfare Initiative (republished from Small Wars Journal)) — https://irregularwarfare.org/articles/finding-the-signal-within-the-noise-what-information-warriors-need-to-know-about-human-pattern-recognition/ — The article argues information warfare exploits human pattern recognition by using repeated narrative structures to shape belief across individual, group, and societal levels. * Lockheed Martin Demonstrates Multi-Aircraft Networking with Sniper NTP — Stefano D’Urso (The Aviationist) — https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/03/lockheed-martin-sniper-ntp-demo/ — Lockheed Martin stated it completed a multi-aircraft demonstration validating real-time targeting data exchange between two F-16s equipped with Sniper Networked Targeting Pods and a ground station. * Stratagems for Confrontation — Create Something From Nothing (Stratagems 7–13) — Traditional Chinese military canon (Thirty-Six Stratagems, attributed to Warring States–Han synthesis) (Imperial Combat Arts) — https://imperialcombatarts.com/thirty-six-stratagems.html — The text describes stratagems that use deception, timing, and probing actions to induce misallocation, hesitation, or disclosure in an adversary. Title: Stratagems for Confrontation — Create Something From Nothing (Stratagems 7–13)Author: Traditional Chinese military canon (Thirty-Six Stratagems, attributed to Warring States–Han synthesis) Executive SynthesisThese stratagems argue that advantage in confrontation is created less by brute force than by manipulating perception, timing, and opponent decision-making. Victory emerges from shaping what the adversary believes is real, urgent, or threatening—while concealing the true point of decision. The logic is adversarial cognition: induce hesitation, misallocation of forces, premature commitment, or false confidence, then exploit the resulting imbalance. Success depends on controlling tempo, sequencing deception and revelation, and converting minor opportunities or sacrifices into cumulative positional advantage. Key Concepts and Mechanisms Create Something From Nothing (Repeated Feint to Mask the Real Attack) * Mechanism: Condition the opponent through repeated false signals until responsiveness degrades. * Logic: Human and organizational defenders adapt to perceived patterns; repetition of deception lowers alertness. * Effect: The true action succeeds because it violates the opponent’s learned expectation of falsity. Openly Repair the Walkway, Secretly March to Chencang (Obvious vs. Decisive Axis) * Mechanism: Present a conspicuous line of effort to draw attention and resources while advancing a concealed decisive maneuver. * Logic: Defenders prioritize visible threats and prepare against what they can see. * Effect: Late realization forces the enemy to split or reorient forces under time pressure, producing confusion and collap

    36 min
  8. Edge of Escalation: Iran on the Brink, China Shapes the Battlefield, Russia Signals Without Strength

    FEB 3

    Edge of Escalation: Iran on the Brink, China Shapes the Battlefield, Russia Signals Without Strength

    This episode of The LOWDOWN examines a convergence of high-risk pressure points shaping the global security environment as February opens. In the Middle East, the United States and Iran approach a potential inflection point: unprecedented U.S.–Israel military coordination, large-scale force movements, and integrated strike preparation unfold alongside last-ditch diplomatic talks in Istanbul, while Iranian leadership privately warns that a limited U.S. strike could reignite mass protests and threaten regime survival. The episode assesses how military posture, deterrence signaling, and domestic instability are interacting in real time. In East Asia, China continues to advance its objectives short of open conflict. Maritime militia formations rehearse de facto blockade conditions around Taiwan, coast guard patrols sustain daily pressure near the Senkaku Islands, and internal PLA purges signal Xi Jinping’s prioritization of political control over institutional stability ahead of the next Party Congress. Taiwan’s forward deployment of HIMARS to outlying islands underscores a parallel shift toward asymmetric counterstrike deterrence. In Europe, Russia projects resolve while operating under constraint. Satellite imagery reveals infrastructure investment near the Finnish border, unchanged war aims are reiterated publicly, and space-domain incidents highlight growing congestion and risk beyond low Earth orbit. Yet assessments indicate Russian forces remain months away from a decisive offensive capability in eastern Ukraine, reinforcing the gap between signaling and operational readiness. The episode concludes with a focused analytical bridge to The Thirty-Six Stratagems, highlighting how today’s actors are applying deception, indirection, tempo control, proxy leverage, and exploitation of internal disorder to preserve advantage without triggering uncontrolled escalation. The result is a snapshot of a global system increasingly shaped by pre-crisis maneuvering—where wars are prepared, delayed, and bounded long before the first shot is fired. Russia and Europe * Russian Spy Satellite Destroyed by Suspected Debris Strike in Graveyard Orbit — Editor Staff (SOFX) — https://www.sofx.com/russian-spy-satellite-destroyed-by-suspected-debris-strike-in-graveyard-orbit/ — On 30 January 2026, a decommissioned Russia SIGINT satellite (Luch/Olymp) fragmented in graveyard orbit after a suspected debris collision, generating multiple new debris objects and raising concerns about tracking and safety in higher orbital regimes. * Satellite Images Reveal Russia Reviving Military Base Near Finnish Border — Ivan Khomenko and Tetiana Frolova (United24) — https://united24media.com/latest-news/satellite-images-reveal-russia-reviving-military-base-near-finnish-border-15524 — Satellite imagery reviewed in late January 2026 shows Russia reactivating the Petrozavodsk garrison near Finland to support the 44th Army Corps, with construction, logistics buildup, and vehicle presence at the site. * SpaceX has stopped Russia’s ‘unauthorised’ use of Starlink against Ukraine, Musk says — France 24 with Reuters (France 24) — https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260201-spacex-stopped-russia-unauthorised-starlink-musk — On 1 February 2026, Elon Musk said SpaceX measures had halted Russia’s unauthorized use of Starlink after Ukraine reported the system was being used to guide Russian long-range drones. * Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2026 — Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2026/ — The 2 February 2026 assessment reports Russian officials reiterating unchanged war aims and threats while ISW assesses Russian forces remain months from a credible major offensive toward the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk “Fortress Belt,” amid Ukrainian countermeasures on Starlink usage and reported Belarus-origin airspace incursions into Poland. * Why Trade Deals With Russia Won’t Bring Peace — Sam Skove (Foreign Policy) — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/02/why-trade-deals-with-russia-wont-bring-peace/ — The article reports Russia-focused analysts and former investors arguing that postwar U.S.–Russia trade and investment would not reliably prevent renewed conflict and would face persistent political and reputational risk. * Tactical Takeaways (Russian CAA attack on a fortified enemy) — OE Data Product (oe.t2com.army.mil) — https://oe.t2com.army.mil/product/russias-combined-arms-army-attack-on-a-fortified-enemy-threat-template/ — The template describes a doctrinal combined-arms-army attack framework featuring echeloned maneuver, centralized fires, defined frontage and objective depths, and reserve commitment indicators for breach-to-exploitation transitions. * Tactical Takeaways (Russian CAA in a Positional Defense) — OE Data Product (oe.t2com.army.mil) — https://oe.t2com.army.mil/product/russias-combined-arms-army-in-a-positional-defense-threat-template/ — The template outlines a wide, deep, layered Russian combined-arms-army defense construct with security zones, echeloned forces, centralized artillery group employment, and reserve commitment cues. Iran and Middle East * Iran’s supreme leader warns any US attack would spark ‘regional war’ — Jon Gambrell (Associated Press) — https://apnews.com/article/iran-eu-terrorist-groups-protests-c0023d9ff1e7c4e6fa92077d640e244c — On 1 February 2026, Iran’s Supreme Leader warned a U.S. attack would trigger a “regional war” amid U.S. naval deployments, planned Iranian live-fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz, protest-related detentions, and reciprocal terror designations with the EU. * Iran designates EU armies ‘terrorist groups’ in retaliatory move — Al Jazeera Staff (Al Jazeera) — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/1/iran-designates-eu-armies-terrorist-groups-in-retaliatory-move — On 1 February 2026, Iran designated EU militaries as terrorist groups under domestic countermeasure law in retaliation for the EU labeling the IRGC a terrorist organization. * Jordan says will not be ‘launching pad for any military action against Iran’ — AFP (Al Arabiya) — https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/02/02/jordan-says-will-not-be-launching-pad-for-any-military-action-against-iran- — On 2 February 2026, Jordan’s foreign minister told Iran’s foreign minister that Jordan will not allow its territory or airspace to be used for attacks against Iran. * Exclusive: Iran fears US strike may reignite protests, imperil rule, sources say — Parisa Hafezi (Reuters) — https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-fears-us-strike-may-reignite-protests-imperil-rule-sources-say-2026-02-02/ — Reuters reports that current and former Iranian officials warned Ayatollah Khamenei a limited U.S. strike could reignite mass protests after January’s crackdown and could threaten regime stability. * U.S.-Iran nuclear talks planned for Friday amid military buildup — Barak Ravid (Axios) — https://www.axios.com/2026/02/02/iran-nuclear-talks-trump-military — Axios reports planning for a possible Friday meeting in Istanbul between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister, with regional mediators involved, amid a major U.S. military buildup. * U.S. and Iran may hold talks in Istanbul on Friday as Trump weighs military action — Richard Engel, Keir Simmons, Natasha Lebedeva, Monica Alba, Abigail Williams (NBC News) — https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-nuclear-talks-donald-trump-supreme-leader-khamenei-war-rcna257074 — NBC News reports potential Friday Istanbul talks involving Witkoff and Abbas Araghchi with regional participation while President Donald Trump weighs military options and U.S. naval forces surge into the region. * U.S. and Iranian Officials to Meet as Trump’s Threats Loom — Ben Hubbard, Farnaz Fassihi (New York Times) — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/world/middleeast/us-iran-meeting-trump-threats.html — The New York Times reports plans for senior U.S. and Iranian officials to meet in Istanbul on Friday with Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt involved, amid U.S. threats and regional efforts to avert escalation. * Iran Update, February 2, 2026 — CTP–ISW (Critical Threats Project) — https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-2-2026 — The update summarizes reported U.S.–Iran diplomatic signaling, Iranian deterrence messaging and posture, nuclear and missile reconstitution indicators, and regional dynamics including Syria and Iraq developments, dated 2 February 2026. * Tactical OSINT Synthesis — U.S.–Israel Strike Preparation Indicators (Feb 2–3, 2026) — Open Source Intel / Armchair Admiral / OSINTdefender / Jennifer Griffin / Emanuel Fabian (X) — https://x.com/home — A set of X posts describes claimed indicators of U.S. and Israel military coordination and force posture movements (airlift, tankers, naval assets, and aircraft sightings) dated 2–3 February 2026. China, The Korean Peninsula, and Asia * Xi the Destroyer: The Latest Military Purge Signals China’s Leader Is Entering a New Era — Jonathan A. Czin and John Culver (Foreign Affairs) — https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-destroyer — The article reports that on 24 January 2026, China’s Xi Jinping removed Gen. Zhang Youxia from the Central Military Commission, framing it as a major signal about party control and senior PLA leadership reshaping ahead of the next Party Congress. * China Is Practicing A Taiwan Blockade With A Floating Great Wall — Jill Goldenziel (Forbes) — https://www.forbes.com/sites/jillgoldenziel/2026/01/31/china-is-practicing-a-taiwan-blockade-with-a-floating-great-wall/ — The article describes large-scale Chinese maritime militia vessel formations near Taiwan as blockade or maritime quarantine rehearsal activity affecting commercial shipping patterns. * China coa

    30 min
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Ratings & Reviews

4.9
out of 5
11 Ratings

About

The LOWDOWN is an independent open-source intelligence (OSINT situational awareness report) covering competition, conflict, and coercive activity involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and the Western Hemisphere. lowdownosint.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Joshua Patten
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    53
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Joshua Patten
  • Show Website
    The LOWDOWN

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