The Lumber Word

Ashley Boeckholt
  • 5.0 (17)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Three Lumber Industry veterans talk about the weekly, monthly and yearly trends. What is going on with inventory in the field, production and distribution. We help educate everyone in the distribution chain with information most like to not talk about. Highlighted items that are overvalued and undervalued are also discussed. Guests in the industry will occasionally drop in to help us dial in some lumber details. Most important is we have fun talking lumber and our listeners love it.

  1. 1h ago

    EP 180: $500 Lumber? The Market Is Sending a Message

    The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up. Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish? Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buying opportunities may be showing up right now. Meanwhile, Ashley asks the question every trader should be asking: Where is the edge? The guys dig into forward pricing, inventory strategy, hedging when the board is at a discount, Canadian tariffs, shrinking contract business, and why 2027 could bring more open-market buying—and potentially more volatility. The takeaway? This probably isn’t the market to be a hero. Stay liquid, turn inventory, buy value, sell the overvalued stuff, and be ready when the market finally shows its hand. 1.Timeline 00:00 — Episode #180: What’s the market telling us? 01:37 — Housing demand remains “punky” 05:00 — Western species bounce and the buying starts 09:20 — Can lumber really rally into the fall? 11:45 — Is November futures getting too cheap? 14:25 — Forward lumber pricing and the opportunity for buyers 17:00 — Where is the edge in today’s lumber market? 18:10 — September/November futures positioning 19:30 — The $500 lumber bomb gets dropped 21:25 — Canadian tariffs, mill economics and supply 25:00 — Should buyers start putting out aggressive Q4/Q1 numbers? 26:45 — How do you manage inventory if lumber falls to $500? 29:00 — Carry less inventory, hedge actively and stay opportunistic 30:20 — What happens if November trades at a huge discount to cash? 33:00 — Could 2027 bring fewer contracts and more open-market buying? 37:30 — Less contract business could mean more volatility 40:15 — Looking ahead to the 2027 lumber market 44:40 — Ashley’s lesson: You can get long faster than you think 46:35 — The low-inventory strategy heading into fall 49:00 — What lumber items still have value—and liquidity? 50:20 — $500 lumber: prediction or just a possibility? 52:25 — Are studs signaling the next cash-market rally? 53:45 — Matt’s game plan: If cheap 2x4 shows up, buy it 53:55 — Southern Yellow Pine starts bouncing off the lows Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

  2. Aug 21

    Episode 179: Don’t Sell the Bottom

    The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com er market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

  3. Aug 14

    EP 178: Is It Time to Buy? | Sig Thoma on Housing, OSB, Futures & the Next Market Move

    The lumber market just dropped roughly $100 in three weeks - but is the selloff creating the next big buying opportunity?  In Episode #178 of The Lumber Word, industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Ashley, Gregg, and Matt for a wide-ranging conversation about what's really happening beneath the surface of the lumber market.  Inventories are getting lean, cash prices are falling well below published levels, and CME lumber futures are carrying a major discount. Sig brings a broader perspective to the conversation, including a fascinating look at a massive lumber buyer whose sheds were nearly empty - a sign that the industry may be running much leaner than many realize.  The crew dives into Southern Yellow Pine, Canadian SPF, Western species, OSB, European lumber, housing and mill profitability. Sig explains why the OSB market has effectively become two different markets, with dramatically different pricing between the U.S. South and West.  Then the conversation gets deeper.  Why aren't more sawmills using CME lumber futures to lock in profitable sales? Could increased futures participation improve price discovery across the entire lumber industry? And could a transparent U.S.-based futures market eventually become part of the argument surrounding Canadian anti-dumping duties and how lumber's true market price is established?  Sig also breaks down the housing problem: mortgage applications have fallen sharply from their June highs, new-home sales remain well below historical peaks, and affordability continues to constrain demand.  The episode finishes with a fascinating discussion about pulp capacity and something most lumber buyers rarely think about: sawmill byproducts. Chips, sawdust, shavings and residual values can materially change sawmill economics - and losing pulp outlets could ultimately influence lumber production itself.  Is this simply an August lumber correction - or is the market setting up for its next major trade?  Timeline  00:00 - Lumber drops roughly $100 & the CME discount  06:00 - Cash lumber, mill pricing & where buyers are hiding  10:40 - Sig's incredible look at extremely lean inventories  14:25 - Southern Yellow Pine economics & Canadian SPF losses  15:00 - Sig breaks down the strange OSB market  17:20 - European lumber arrivals & Eastern SPF  20:00 - Western species vs. CME futures  21:00 - Why aren't more sawmills using lumber futures?  25:00 - Forward pricing opportunities & multifamily  27:00 - Where could the lumber market finally bottom?  29:20 - What happens if you actually take CME delivery?  31:00 - Sig on futures culture & changing the lumber industry  32:20 - Housing, mortgage applications & affordability  35:50 - Southern sawmills, pulp capacity & mill economics  39:45 - Canadian lumber duties delayed  41:00 - Could CME pricing challenge the anti-dumping argument?  44:00 - Manufacturing, tariffs & deglobalization  46:30 - A wild real-world CME delivery story  48:15 - Sig closes with a classic story & market warning  Keywords  Lumber Market, Lumber Prices, Sig Thoma, CME Lumber Futures, Lumber Futures, SPF Lumber, Canadian Lumber, Southern Yellow Pine, OSB Prices, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Sawmills, Lumber Duties, Anti-Dumping Duties, Softwood Lumber, Lumber Trading, Building Materials, Wood Products, Lumber Industry, The Lumber Word Podcast

  4. Jul 30

    EP 177: NAWLA Opens the Doors, Southern Pine Opportunity & Lumber Market Outlook

    This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Matt, and Charles welcome Kyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber and Immediate Past Chair of NAWLA, for an in-depth conversation on one of the biggest changes in the lumber industry's premier trade organization. Kyle explains how NAWLA is opening its 2026 Traders Market in Anaheim, CA, November 4-6, to the broader wood products industry, making networking, education, and collaboration more accessible than ever before. The discussion also explores the association's long-term vision and why these changes could reshape industry relationships for years to come. The crew then shifts to today's lumber market—covering lean inventories, Southern Yellow Pine pricing, Western species, Canfor's Fox Creek closure, multifamily housing demand, futures positioning, and the trading opportunities emerging from historically wide species spreads. Whether you're a trader, sawmill, distributor, dealer, builder, or housing professional, this episode delivers practical market intelligence you can use immediately. Episode Timeline 00:00 – Welcome Kyle Little & NAWLA updates 03:00 – Why NAWLA is opening the Traders Market 12:00 – Wood Basics, leadership development & networking 19:15 – Current lumber market conditions 22:45 – Lean inventories and housing demand 25:00 – Southern Yellow Pine outlook 28:00 – Western species, production & wildfire discussion 33:30 – Doug Fir vs. SPF vs. Southern Pine trading opportunities 37:45 – Bullish and bearish market picks 43:00 – Best buying opportunities in today's lumber market 46:45 – Interest rates, housing & what comes next 51:00 – Sherwood Lumber updates and final thoughts Guest Kyle Little, COO, Sherwood Lumber KLittle@sherwoodlumber.com NAWLA: North American Wholesale Lumber Association 2026 Traders Market Information If you want to meet with the top companies and individuals in the industry, this is a must-attend! https://nawla.org/events/tradersmarket Matt Bruno: Executive Director, NAWLA MBruno@nawla.org Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

  5. Jul 24

    EP 176: Lumber Market Crossroads: Supply Cuts, Futures Strategy & Why Demand Is Better Than You Think

    The lumber market may feel quiet, but beneath the surface, major forces are shaping the second half of 2026. In Episode 176 of The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down slowing summer activity, surprising housing data, Canadian production cuts, Southern Yellow Pine trends, and why lumber futures remain one of the industry's most underused risk management tools. Plus, the crew dives deep into species spreads, pricing opportunities, and what separates great lumber traders from everyone else. Timeline 00:00 – Summer slowdown or just a seasonal pause? 05:30 – Housing starts surprise the market: supply vs. demand 13:00 – Canadian curtailments, fiber shortages & wildfire impacts 17:00 – Southern Yellow Pine futures and managing price risk 25:00 – Why the panel is hedging lumber futures today 31:00 – Species spreads: SPF vs. Doug Fir, Hem-Fir & Southern Pine 35:00 – Why traders love the 'in the weeds' market discussion 39:00 – How great lumber traders are developed—and why training still matters

  6. Jul 17

    EP 175: Lumber Market Crossroads: Is $700 2x4 SPF Coming? Pine, Western Species & the Next Big Trade

    The lumber market may feel quiet—but beneath the surface, major shifts are taking place. In Episode #175 of The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Greg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles DeLaTorre discuss why the current market could be setting up for its next significant move. The crew breaks down Canadian SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Western species, and why inventory positioning may matter more than ever heading into late summer. Matt shares insights from the Inland Lumber Producers Conference, highlighting how market conditions have become highly regionalized across North America. The conversation also pays tribute to three respected industry leaders whose retirements mark the end of an era in the lumber business. Other topics include: • Is SPF 2x4 the cheapest value in North American lumber today? • Could Western Spruce reach $700 by Labor Day? • Southern Yellow Pine supply, production cuts, and inventory trends • Why mills still aren't chasing production despite stronger pricing • Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain cautious • Canadian shipment trends and what they signal for the second half of 2026 • The importance of mentorship, relationships, and reputation in the lumber industry Whether you're a lumber trader, sawmill executive, wholesaler, retailer, builder, or simply follow North American wood products markets, this episode delivers practical market intelligence and industry insight you won't want to miss. Simple Timeline 00:00 – Episode 175 begins and current lumber market overview 02:00 – Why SPF 2x4 appears undervalued compared to other lumber products 06:00 – Customer visits, building relationships, and selling opportunities 07:00 – Matt's recap of the Inland Lumber Producers Conference 09:45 – Honoring retiring lumber industry leaders 17:30 – Mentorship and why relationships define long-term success in lumber 18:00 – Southern Yellow Pine market update with Charles 20:00 – Western species, Douglas Fir, Hem-Fir, and current trading conditions 23:00 – Distribution inventories, buying strategies, and market positioning 25:45 – Forward pricing opportunities and why buyers remain hesitant 27:00 – Dimension lumber discussion: 2x10s, 2x12s, and seasonal production trends 33:00 – Canadian production, stud mills, and profitability 37:00 – Pulp markets, fiber supply, and residual economics 39:30 – Canadian shipment data, inventory outlook, and what's next for the lumber market.

  7. Jul 9

    EP 174: Running Out of Wood? Russ Taylor on the Market Nobody Saw Coming

    Russ Taylor of Russ Taylor Global returns to The Lumber Word for a deep dive into one of the most fascinating lumber markets in years. The crew discusses shrinking North American production, tightening inventories, Canadian export trends, Southern Pine pricing, mill profitability, tariffs, transportation, and why supply—not demand—continues to drive prices. With production capacity permanently removed across North America and limited ability to quickly restart mills, the panel explores whether higher prices are here to stay into late 2026. If you trade, manufacture, distribute, or simply follow the lumber industry, this episode delivers market intelligence you won't want to miss. Timeline 00:00 – Soccer banter before shifting into lumber markets. 02:00 – Current SPF and Southern Pine market conditions and regional pricing. 08:00 – Russ Taylor reviews Canadian production and export data. 15:00 – Mill profitability, duties, tariffs and North American cost structures. 21:00 – Why supply constraints are outweighing demand. 28:00 – Southern Pine production, logistics and trucking challenges. 34:00 – Wood chip markets, pulp demand and byproduct economics. 35:30 – 30-, 60- and 90-day market outlook and pricing expectations. 41:00 – Canadian shipments, tariff timing and closing market outlook. Guest: Russ Taylor WWW.russtaylorglobal.com   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com

  8. Jun 25

    EP 173: The Lumber Market Just Changed—and Most People Haven't Noticed

    Episode Summary Episode #173 welcomes returning guest Mike Wisnefski of Westline Capital for an in-depth discussion on the evolving lumber market. The panel explores lessons from the Southern Pine Conference, why the CME Southern Pine futures contract could benefit from monthly expirations, and how better participation could improve liquidity. Mike shares how private equity ownership is changing sawmill decision-making, while the group examines why Western and Eastern lumber markets have tightened despite mixed economic headlines. The conversation also dives into inventory strategy, options pricing, reload capacity, trucking, and the growing importance of disciplined risk management. Finally, the hosts debate housing policy, builder demand, infrastructure, and why regional economics continue to drive long-term lumber consumption. This episode offers practical insights for wholesalers, retailers, mills, traders, and anyone following the North American lumber industry. Timeline 00:00 – Introductions, Chicago sports, and welcome back to Mike Wisnefski. 02:00 – Southern Pine Conference recap—networking, collaboration, and supply chain partnerships. 04:00 – Private equity ownership of sawmills and changing mill economics. 05:30 – Future of the CME Southern Pine futures contract and ideas for improving liquidity. 10:00 – Cash settlement, delivery points, and regional pricing challenges. 15:00 – Western lumber market strength, improving order files, and species updates. 18:00 – Dimension shortages, 2x10 pricing, and shifting production patterns. 20:00 – Eastern market tightness, European imports, and shrinking inventories. 25:00 – Housing legislation, permitting challenges, and rebuilding constraints. 31:30 – Regional migration, affordability, and long-term housing demand. 34:00 – Inventory strategy, reload economics, and why distributors are regaining value. 40:00 – Options pricing, risk management, and disciplined trading strategies. 44:00 – Closing thoughts on market structure, hedging opportunities, and the second-half outlook. Guest: Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies Inc. MikeW@westlinecapital.com   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
17 Ratings

About

Three Lumber Industry veterans talk about the weekly, monthly and yearly trends. What is going on with inventory in the field, production and distribution. We help educate everyone in the distribution chain with information most like to not talk about. Highlighted items that are overvalued and undervalued are also discussed. Guests in the industry will occasionally drop in to help us dial in some lumber details. Most important is we have fun talking lumber and our listeners love it.

Information

  • Creator
    Ashley Boeckholt
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    100
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Ashley Boeckholt
  • Show Website
    The Lumber Word

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