The Lumber Word

Ashley Boeckholt
  • 5.0 (17)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

The Lumber Word is the weekly podcast for the North American lumber and building materials industry. Three lumber industry veterans break down lumber prices, market trends, supply and demand, sawmill production, inventories, transportation, housing, and the forces moving the physical lumber market. From CME lumber futures and commodity trading to Canadian and U.S. production, wholesalers, distributors, dealers, and homebuilders, The Lumber Word brings real-world perspective from people actively participating in the market. Each week, we discuss what we're seeing, what we're hearing, where the lumber market may be headed—and occasionally disagree about all of it. If you buy, sell, trade, produce, transport, or invest in lumber and building materials, this is your market conversation.

  1. 1d ago

    EP 183: Nobody Wants Lumber — Even With Inventories Running on Fumes

    The lumber market is heading into Q4 with an unusual setup: inventories across the supply chain appear extremely lean, yet buyers still aren't willing to take much risk. In Episode #183, Ashley, Matt, Gregg and Charles dig into what's actually trading versus published prices, growing price disparities between mills, tightening truck availability, rail issues and the increasingly important role of freight. The group also breaks down housing starts, builder headwinds, interest rates and what declining demand could mean for mill production and lumber prices into year-end. With 2x4 looking increasingly vulnerable while several other items remain historically expensive, the conversation turns to the real question for Q4: What should you own, what should you sell, and where is the opportunity? Timeline 00:00 Housing & the Q4 Setup 02:03 Lumber Inventories Running Low 04:03 Less Lumber Than Last Year? 06:06 The Hedging Problem 08:04 Trucking Gets Ugly Again 11:07 Hem-Fir, SPF & Real Prices 13:05 Futures vs. Cash 14:23 Huge Mill Price Disparities 15:37 Are Contract Buyers Overpaying? 16:24 Southern Pine Pricing 19:04 Freight Becomes the Wild Card 22:00 Hem-Fir vs. SPF 24:13 What Changes This Market? 28:20 Rates & Housing Affordability 30:39 Are Builders Slowing Down? 32:04 The Bearish Q4 Case 34:25 Navigating Q4 35:28 Where Opportunities Still Exist 36:21 Apathy Defines the Market 36:39 What to Own & What to Sell 38:06 Marry, Date or Dump 39:03 Where Pine Prices Could Go 39:44 Final Thoughts Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

  2. Sep 11

    EP 182: The Lumber Market Is Strongly Sideways

    The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now. With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber? Timeline 00:00 Bart Charles joins the show 01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand 04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”? 06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing 09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce 13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update 15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs 17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here? 19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways” 21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities 23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums? 29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk 31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability 32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs 34:28 Are traders still short lumber? 35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine 37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme 39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt 39:51 Locking in Q1 margins 40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now 41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge” Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com Guest Bart Charles BCharles@shamrockbm.com

  3. Sep 4

    EP 181: Are the Funds Now the Smart Money in Lumber?

    Is the lumber market finally trying to put in a bottom—or is this just another bounce before seasonal weakness takes over? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles break down the latest action across SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, studs, and CME lumber futures. The guys discuss the growing disconnect between September futures and the cash market, the possibility of taking delivery against September, and why some buyers may want to start covering needs rather than waiting for the perfect bottom. Charles takes a deep dive into Southern Yellow Pine, where sharp price swings, tighter production control, freight volatility, and execution risk are making the market increasingly difficult to trade. The conversation also turns to Southern timberland, falling pulpwood demand, mill closures, and what cheap Southern fiber could mean for lumber production longer term. Then Ashley raises a bigger question: Who is really the smart money in lumber today—the industry or the funds? The guys examine how large systematic and trend-following funds can stay with positions far longer than physical traders expect, ignore traditional ideas like cost of production, and potentially push lumber much farther in either direction than the industry thinks makes sense. The episode wraps with signs of bottoming in futures, narrow Southern Pine, SPF dimension and studs, the possibility of a trading bounce into September expiration, and where November futures could run into resistance. Timeline 00:00 – Opening, Lumber Word merch & potential Traders Market appearance 02:50 – Cash market update and seasonal weakness 04:20 – September vs. November futures and the cash/futures discount 06:30 – Could taking September CME delivery make sense? 08:00 – Is SPF beginning to find a trading bottom? 09:00 – Stud values and major relative-value opportunities 11:10 – Southern Yellow Pine: 4-inch strength and shrinking discount windows 12:45 – Pine volatility, freight costs and huge moves in wides 14:00 – How well is the CME Southern Pine contract tracking cash? 15:45 – Short covering or the beginning of a real market bounce? 20:00 – Why buyers with business on the books may want to start covering 22:00 – Market headwinds: tariffs, mortgage rates and housing demand 25:30 – Seasonal weakness, freight risk and the importance of execution 28:20 – "No edge, no hedge" and finding an advantage in today's market 32:15 – What is happening to Southern U.S. timberland? 33:20 – Cheap Southern fiber, pulp mill closures and long-term implications 38:45 – Industry vs. funds: Who is really the smart money? 40:00 – Why large funds can push lumber beyond industry expectations 42:10 – Cost of production, shutdown economics and lost Canadian production 43:15 – Bottoming signals across futures, Pine, SPF and studs 44:30 – November futures resistance and the September/November spread 46:00 – Closing thoughts Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

  4. Aug 28

    EP 180: $500 Lumber? The Market Is Sending a Message

    The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up. Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish? Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buying opportunities may be showing up right now. Meanwhile, Ashley asks the question every trader should be asking: Where is the edge? The guys dig into forward pricing, inventory strategy, hedging when the board is at a discount, Canadian tariffs, shrinking contract business, and why 2027 could bring more open-market buying—and potentially more volatility. The takeaway? This probably isn’t the market to be a hero. Stay liquid, turn inventory, buy value, sell the overvalued stuff, and be ready when the market finally shows its hand. 1.Timeline 00:00 — Episode #180: What’s the market telling us? 01:37 — Housing demand remains “punky” 05:00 — Western species bounce and the buying starts 09:20 — Can lumber really rally into the fall? 11:45 — Is November futures getting too cheap? 14:25 — Forward lumber pricing and the opportunity for buyers 17:00 — Where is the edge in today’s lumber market? 18:10 — September/November futures positioning 19:30 — The $500 lumber bomb gets dropped 21:25 — Canadian tariffs, mill economics and supply 25:00 — Should buyers start putting out aggressive Q4/Q1 numbers? 26:45 — How do you manage inventory if lumber falls to $500? 29:00 — Carry less inventory, hedge actively and stay opportunistic 30:20 — What happens if November trades at a huge discount to cash? 33:00 — Could 2027 bring fewer contracts and more open-market buying? 37:30 — Less contract business could mean more volatility 40:15 — Looking ahead to the 2027 lumber market 44:40 — Ashley’s lesson: You can get long faster than you think 46:35 — The low-inventory strategy heading into fall 49:00 — What lumber items still have value—and liquidity? 50:20 — $500 lumber: prediction or just a possibility? 52:25 — Are studs signaling the next cash-market rally? 53:45 — Matt’s game plan: If cheap 2x4 shows up, buy it 53:55 — Southern Yellow Pine starts bouncing off the lows Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

  5. Aug 21

    Episode 179: Don’t Sell the Bottom

    The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com er market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

  6. Aug 14

    EP 178: Is It Time to Buy? | Sig Thoma on Housing, OSB, Futures & the Next Market Move

    The lumber market just dropped roughly $100 in three weeks - but is the selloff creating the next big buying opportunity?  In Episode #178 of The Lumber Word, industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Ashley, Gregg, and Matt for a wide-ranging conversation about what's really happening beneath the surface of the lumber market.  Inventories are getting lean, cash prices are falling well below published levels, and CME lumber futures are carrying a major discount. Sig brings a broader perspective to the conversation, including a fascinating look at a massive lumber buyer whose sheds were nearly empty - a sign that the industry may be running much leaner than many realize.  The crew dives into Southern Yellow Pine, Canadian SPF, Western species, OSB, European lumber, housing and mill profitability. Sig explains why the OSB market has effectively become two different markets, with dramatically different pricing between the U.S. South and West.  Then the conversation gets deeper.  Why aren't more sawmills using CME lumber futures to lock in profitable sales? Could increased futures participation improve price discovery across the entire lumber industry? And could a transparent U.S.-based futures market eventually become part of the argument surrounding Canadian anti-dumping duties and how lumber's true market price is established?  Sig also breaks down the housing problem: mortgage applications have fallen sharply from their June highs, new-home sales remain well below historical peaks, and affordability continues to constrain demand.  The episode finishes with a fascinating discussion about pulp capacity and something most lumber buyers rarely think about: sawmill byproducts. Chips, sawdust, shavings and residual values can materially change sawmill economics - and losing pulp outlets could ultimately influence lumber production itself.  Is this simply an August lumber correction - or is the market setting up for its next major trade?  Timeline  00:00 - Lumber drops roughly $100 & the CME discount  06:00 - Cash lumber, mill pricing & where buyers are hiding  10:40 - Sig's incredible look at extremely lean inventories  14:25 - Southern Yellow Pine economics & Canadian SPF losses  15:00 - Sig breaks down the strange OSB market  17:20 - European lumber arrivals & Eastern SPF  20:00 - Western species vs. CME futures  21:00 - Why aren't more sawmills using lumber futures?  25:00 - Forward pricing opportunities & multifamily  27:00 - Where could the lumber market finally bottom?  29:20 - What happens if you actually take CME delivery?  31:00 - Sig on futures culture & changing the lumber industry  32:20 - Housing, mortgage applications & affordability  35:50 - Southern sawmills, pulp capacity & mill economics  39:45 - Canadian lumber duties delayed  41:00 - Could CME pricing challenge the anti-dumping argument?  44:00 - Manufacturing, tariffs & deglobalization  46:30 - A wild real-world CME delivery story  48:15 - Sig closes with a classic story & market warning  Keywords  Lumber Market, Lumber Prices, Sig Thoma, CME Lumber Futures, Lumber Futures, SPF Lumber, Canadian Lumber, Southern Yellow Pine, OSB Prices, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Sawmills, Lumber Duties, Anti-Dumping Duties, Softwood Lumber, Lumber Trading, Building Materials, Wood Products, Lumber Industry, The Lumber Word Podcast

  7. Jul 30

    EP 177: NAWLA Opens the Doors, Southern Pine Opportunity & Lumber Market Outlook

    This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Matt, and Charles welcome Kyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber and Immediate Past Chair of NAWLA, for an in-depth conversation on one of the biggest changes in the lumber industry's premier trade organization. Kyle explains how NAWLA is opening its 2026 Traders Market in Anaheim, CA, November 4-6, to the broader wood products industry, making networking, education, and collaboration more accessible than ever before. The discussion also explores the association's long-term vision and why these changes could reshape industry relationships for years to come. The crew then shifts to today's lumber market—covering lean inventories, Southern Yellow Pine pricing, Western species, Canfor's Fox Creek closure, multifamily housing demand, futures positioning, and the trading opportunities emerging from historically wide species spreads. Whether you're a trader, sawmill, distributor, dealer, builder, or housing professional, this episode delivers practical market intelligence you can use immediately. Episode Timeline 00:00 – Welcome Kyle Little & NAWLA updates 03:00 – Why NAWLA is opening the Traders Market 12:00 – Wood Basics, leadership development & networking 19:15 – Current lumber market conditions 22:45 – Lean inventories and housing demand 25:00 – Southern Yellow Pine outlook 28:00 – Western species, production & wildfire discussion 33:30 – Doug Fir vs. SPF vs. Southern Pine trading opportunities 37:45 – Bullish and bearish market picks 43:00 – Best buying opportunities in today's lumber market 46:45 – Interest rates, housing & what comes next 51:00 – Sherwood Lumber updates and final thoughts Guest Kyle Little, COO, Sherwood Lumber KLittle@sherwoodlumber.com NAWLA: North American Wholesale Lumber Association 2026 Traders Market Information If you want to meet with the top companies and individuals in the industry, this is a must-attend! https://nawla.org/events/tradersmarket Matt Bruno: Executive Director, NAWLA MBruno@nawla.org Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

  8. Jul 24

    EP 176: Lumber Market Crossroads: Supply Cuts, Futures Strategy & Why Demand Is Better Than You Think

    The lumber market may feel quiet, but beneath the surface, major forces are shaping the second half of 2026. In Episode 176 of The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down slowing summer activity, surprising housing data, Canadian production cuts, Southern Yellow Pine trends, and why lumber futures remain one of the industry's most underused risk management tools. Plus, the crew dives deep into species spreads, pricing opportunities, and what separates great lumber traders from everyone else. Timeline 00:00 – Summer slowdown or just a seasonal pause? 05:30 – Housing starts surprise the market: supply vs. demand 13:00 – Canadian curtailments, fiber shortages & wildfire impacts 17:00 – Southern Yellow Pine futures and managing price risk 25:00 – Why the panel is hedging lumber futures today 31:00 – Species spreads: SPF vs. Doug Fir, Hem-Fir & Southern Pine 35:00 – Why traders love the 'in the weeds' market discussion 39:00 – How great lumber traders are developed—and why training still matters

See All (100)

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
17 Ratings

About

The Lumber Word is the weekly podcast for the North American lumber and building materials industry. Three lumber industry veterans break down lumber prices, market trends, supply and demand, sawmill production, inventories, transportation, housing, and the forces moving the physical lumber market. From CME lumber futures and commodity trading to Canadian and U.S. production, wholesalers, distributors, dealers, and homebuilders, The Lumber Word brings real-world perspective from people actively participating in the market. Each week, we discuss what we're seeing, what we're hearing, where the lumber market may be headed—and occasionally disagree about all of it. If you buy, sell, trade, produce, transport, or invest in lumber and building materials, this is your market conversation.

Information

  • Creator
    Ashley Boeckholt
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    100
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Ashley Boeckholt
  • Show Website
    The Lumber Word

You Might Also Like