The Lumber Word

Ashley Boeckholt
  • 5.0 (16)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Three Lumber Industry veterans talk about the weekly, monthly and yearly trends. What is going on with inventory in the field, production and distribution. We help educate everyone in the distribution chain with information most like to not talk about. Highlighted items that are overvalued and undervalued are also discussed. Guests in the industry will occasionally drop in to help us dial in some lumber details. Most important is we have fun talking lumber and our listeners love it.

  1. 3d ago

    EP 173: The Lumber Market Just Changed—and Most People Haven't Noticed

    Episode Summary Episode #173 welcomes returning guest Mike Wisnefski of Westline Capital for an in-depth discussion on the evolving lumber market. The panel explores lessons from the Southern Pine Conference, why the CME Southern Pine futures contract could benefit from monthly expirations, and how better participation could improve liquidity. Mike shares how private equity ownership is changing sawmill decision-making, while the group examines why Western and Eastern lumber markets have tightened despite mixed economic headlines. The conversation also dives into inventory strategy, options pricing, reload capacity, trucking, and the growing importance of disciplined risk management. Finally, the hosts debate housing policy, builder demand, infrastructure, and why regional economics continue to drive long-term lumber consumption. This episode offers practical insights for wholesalers, retailers, mills, traders, and anyone following the North American lumber industry. Timeline 00:00 – Introductions, Chicago sports, and welcome back to Mike Wisnefski. 02:00 – Southern Pine Conference recap—networking, collaboration, and supply chain partnerships. 04:00 – Private equity ownership of sawmills and changing mill economics. 05:30 – Future of the CME Southern Pine futures contract and ideas for improving liquidity. 10:00 – Cash settlement, delivery points, and regional pricing challenges. 15:00 – Western lumber market strength, improving order files, and species updates. 18:00 – Dimension shortages, 2x10 pricing, and shifting production patterns. 20:00 – Eastern market tightness, European imports, and shrinking inventories. 25:00 – Housing legislation, permitting challenges, and rebuilding constraints. 31:30 – Regional migration, affordability, and long-term housing demand. 34:00 – Inventory strategy, reload economics, and why distributors are regaining value. 40:00 – Options pricing, risk management, and disciplined trading strategies. 44:00 – Closing thoughts on market structure, hedging opportunities, and the second-half outlook. Guest: Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies Inc. MikeW@westlinecapital.com   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    53 min

  2. Jun 18

    EP 172: Lumber Market Rally: Inventory Panic, Freight Crunch & Why Prices Could Keep Climbing

    Matt Layman returns to The Lumber Word for an in-depth discussion on one of the hottest topics in the lumber industry: the summer lumber rally. With inventories running lean, freight markets tightening, and mills extending order files, the crew explores whether lumber prices still have room to run. The conversation begins with a recap of the Southern Pine hedging seminar hosted by StoneX and Westline Capital, where attendees discussed the future of lumber risk management, liquidity challenges, and why more companies need to gain hands-on experience using futures markets. The group then shifts to the cash lumber market, breaking down strength in SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, and Douglas Fir. Matt shares what he's seeing in the Pacific Northwest, while Gregg and Ashley discuss supply constraints, delayed shipments, trucking shortages, and why buying lumber is becoming harder than selling it. They also analyze the latest housing starts data, debate whether demand is stronger than many expect, and discuss how lean inventories throughout the supply chain continue to support higher prices despite widespread economic pessimism. Plus: freight disruptions, rail delays, inventory management, futures trading lessons, Elon Musk, SpaceX, and Ashley's outlook for where lumber prices may be headed through July and beyond. If you're a lumber dealer, wholesaler, manufacturer, builder, trader, or investor looking to stay ahead of the market, this episode is packed with actionable insights. Topics Covered Lumber Market Outlook SPF Lumber Prices Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) Hem-Fir & Douglas Fir Markets Lumber Futures & Hedging Freight & Trucking Costs Rail Service Challenges Housing Starts Analysis Inventory Management Lumber Industry Economics SpaceX & Market Psychology Summer 2026 Lumber Rally Timeline 00:00 – Matt Layman Returns to The Lumber Word 03:00 – Southern Pine Futures, Hedging & Market Participation 07:00 – Risk Management: How Lumber Companies Should Think About Futures 15:00 – Trading Lessons: Winning, Losing & Market Discipline 16:00 – SPF, Hem-Fir & Douglas Fir Break Higher 21:00 – Is Southern Yellow Pine Finally Joining the Rally? 27:00 – Housing Starts: What the Headlines Missed 30:00 – Elon Musk, SpaceX & Economic Optimism 34:00 – Ashley's Bullish Case for Lumber 38:00 – Freight Bottlenecks, Rail Delays & Inventory Shortages 44:00+ – Why Buying Lumber Is Harder Than Selling It Episode Takeaway The lumber market continues to be driven by one simple reality: inventories remain too low while supply struggles to keep up. Despite negative sentiment around housing and the economy, buyers continue to chase wood, mills are extending order files, and freight remains a major constraint. The panel agrees that the path of least resistance for lumber prices remains higher until inventories are rebuilt and supply catches up.   Guest: Matt Layman www.laymansguide.com Matt@laymansguide.com   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    56 min

  3. Jun 11

    EP 171: The Bull Market Nobody Believes In (Yet)

    The lumber market may be sending its clearest signal of 2026: supply is shrinking, inventories are lean, and futures are leading the charge higher. In Episode 171, the crew welcomes industry veteran Kip Fotheringham for a deep dive into the forces reshaping North American lumber markets. From tightening SPF supply and Southern Yellow Pine transportation challenges to Canadian curtailments, futures fund short covering, and the surprising resilience of housing demand, the group lays out the bullish case that's beginning to unfold. They debate whether we're in the first inning or the third inning of a larger rally, examine why major funds are potentially abandoning short positions, and discuss how shrinking production capacity could collide with steady demand to create a much tighter market through the summer. The conversation also explores Berkshire Hathaway's investment in homebuilding, multifamily construction strength, pulp mill closures, fiber supply challenges, and the Longview explosion's potential impact on Western sawmill production. If you're a lumber buyer, trader, mill operator, or builder, this episode offers a roadmap to the risks—and opportunities—developing beneath the surface of today's market. Timeline 00:00 – Lumber, Airports & Industry Reach Portland Airport gets a surprising shoutout, and the crew shares a story highlighting how The Lumber Word continues to influence industry conversations. 03:30 – Are We Early in a Bull Market? The panel debates whether the lumber rally is just getting started and what buyers should be doing right now. 07:00 – Transportation Becomes the Story Escalating trucking costs and regional supply constraints are changing how lumber moves across North America. 09:00 – Canada's Supply Problem Gets Real Discussion on curtailments, mill economics, and why North American production continues to shrink. 15:00 – Why This Summer Feels Different The crew explains why inventory positions, contract reductions, and tariff pressures have created an unusual setup. 22:00 – The Longview Explosion & Fiber Fallout A major disruption in the Pacific Northwest raises new questions about residual markets and future sawmill production. 25:00 – Smart Money is Buying Housing Berkshire Hathaway, Japanese investors, and multifamily construction all point toward longer-term confidence in housing demand. 30:00 – Funds Are Covering Shorts Kip breaks down what the futures market is signaling and why short-covering could fuel a larger move higher. 35:00 – What Could Derail the Rally? The group examines the biggest risks to their bullish outlook and what buyers should watch over the next 30 days. 44:00 – Final Take: Bullish Until Proven Otherwise The episode wraps with a discussion on shrinking supply, steady demand, and why the market's biggest surprise may still be ahead. Guest: Kip Fotheringham Lumber Trader and Market Expert KipF@telus.net   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    46 min

  4. Jun 5

    EP 170: Freight Is Eating the Lumber Market

    This week on The Lumber Word, the crew tackles the biggest issue in lumber today: freight. From Buffalo reloads buried under railcars to Southern Pine mills struggling with transportation costs, the conversation centers on how logistics—not mill prices—are driving the market. The team discusses tightening inventories, shrinking North American supply, species substitution, and why prompt wood may be worth more than ever. Gregg doubles down on his bullish lumber outlook, while the group debates whether SPF is significantly undervalued heading into the second half of 2026. If freight remains tight and supply stays constrained, the market could be setting up for a stronger move than many expect. Timeline 0:00 – Back From the Road – Travel stories, reload visits, and market observations. 2:00 – Buffalo Is Jammed – Railcars are arriving fast and unloading slowly. 5:00 – Chicago Reload Expansion – New capacity could become a major advantage. 7:00 – Freight Is the Story – Higher trucking costs are changing lumber economics. 11:00 – Pine Mills Hit the Brakes – Transportation issues may be limiting production. 15:00 – Contract Pricing Gets Tested – Suppliers are absorbing freight pain. 18:00 – Rail vs. Truck – Why transportation knowledge is becoming a competitive edge. 23:00 – Greg's Bull Case – Less supply, steady demand, and higher prices ahead. 29:00 – Prompt Wood Wins – Inventory ready to ship is commanding a premium. 32:00 – Lean Pipelines Everywhere – Buyers may be more undercovered than they realize. 35:00 – Second Half Setup – The crew sees more reasons for lumber to rise than fall. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    56 min

  5. May 21

    EP 169: Commando Lumber Trading: Tight Wood, No Trucks, No Hedge

    The crew breaks down a lumber market that feels calm on the surface but is getting tighter underneath. Trucking is a disaster, inventories stay lean, mills are not panicking, and buyers still have not adjusted. 0:00-4:00 - College kids, Waymos, and bad decisions after midnight 4:00-9:00 - SYP stabilizes but trucking wrecks pricing 9:00-15:00 - Freight market insanity and disappearing trucks 15:00-22:00 - Spruce stays steady while inventories thin out 22:00-28:00 - Canadian curtailments and supply fears build 28:00-34:00 - Reloads emptying and buyers still underbought 34:00-39:00 - Futures, no hedge, and bullish summer bets Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    53 min

  6. May 14

    EP 168: Is Lumber Coiling for a Summer Breakout?

    This week on The Lumber Word, Matt, Gregg, Ashley, and guest Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies break down one of the most interesting lumber markets in years. The crew discusses low volatility, lean inventories, seasonal strength, futures market psychology, pine versus spruce pricing, multifamily demand, and why the next major lumber move could happen fast. The episode also explores European lumber markets, supply chain transparency, and current housing market realities. Timeline 0:00 – Intro & Mike Wisnefski joins 1:45 – Market feels split 4:10 – Western lumber floor 7:30 – Seasonal market trends 12:00 – Curtailments & duties 15:20 – Futures pessimism 17:30 – Housing & multifamily 22:45 – Volatility discussion 27:00 – Inventory strategy 29:00 – Pine vs spruce 35:30 – Europe market insights 39:30 – Quarterly pricing 42:00 – Final market outlook Guest: Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies Inc. MikeW@westlinecapital.com SYP June 2026 SYP StoneX Southern Yellow Pine Lumber Risk Academy June 9, 2026-June 10, 2026 Information and Registration for the SYP Hedging Academy https://stonex.cventevents.com/event/SYPLRA2026/summary Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    1h 8m

  7. May 7

    EP 167: Is Lumber Quietly Setting Up for Another Bull Run?

    This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down one of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze? Timeline 0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active 3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species 6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy 10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish 15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply 20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate 27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business 33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com   ne of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze? Timeline 0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active 3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species 6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy 10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish 15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply 20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate 27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business 33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    57 min

  8. Apr 30

    EP 166: Is Freight the Real Lumber Market Right Now?

    This week’s episode breaks down a confusing lumber market where price prints don’t reflect reality. Southern Pine appears to be selling off, but much of the move is driven by rising and volatile freight costs rather than true demand weakness. Inventory remains tight in many regions, while buyers hesitate due to bearish sentiment and futures discounts. Meanwhile, multifamily construction continues to support demand, even as overall housing trends flatten. The result is a fragmented, regional “island market” where logistics—not supply—are dictating price. Timeline (Condensed) 0:00 – Market Setup: Weak tone on paper, post-Montreal reset 2:00 – Pine Selloff = Freight Story: Prices down, driven by trucking costs 5:00 – Cash vs Futures Disconnect: Strong Western pricing vs discounted board 10:00 – Supply Constraints: Euro down, Canada tight, limited new supply 15:00 – Housing Demand: Flat overall, multifamily supporting pine 20:00 – Fragmented Market: Regional “islands,” no easy arbitrage 25:00 – Relative Value Trades: 2x6 vs 2x4 spread, board looks cheap 30:00 – Buyer Behavior Shift: Late buying driving higher freight 35:00 – Key Takeaway Trades: Futures and select items show opportunity   Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    51 min
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
16 Ratings

About

Three Lumber Industry veterans talk about the weekly, monthly and yearly trends. What is going on with inventory in the field, production and distribution. We help educate everyone in the distribution chain with information most like to not talk about. Highlighted items that are overvalued and undervalued are also discussed. Guests in the industry will occasionally drop in to help us dial in some lumber details. Most important is we have fun talking lumber and our listeners love it.

Information

  • Creator
    Ashley Boeckholt
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    100
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Ashley Boeckholt
  • Show Website
    The Lumber Word

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