The Other Hand Jim Power & Chris Johns

Time for rocket scientists to stop blowing up the (economic) world Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns.



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In an Irish Times Article that has gone globally viral, journalist Nathan Johns, @nathanrjohns, analysed data that suggests S. Africa might have won that match. Perhaps even deserved to win that match.
But they lost.
Why?
Numbers are not quite everything it seems. Nearly everything, but not everything.
Chris looks forward to a Wales victory in the semi final. Maybe even against Ireland.
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A big week in financial markets: bond yields are up to multi-year highs. All other asset prices have been affected. Equities are down, exchange rates are all over the place.
The new narrative is interest rates 'higher for longer'. Wethink this could be yet another narrative fallacy.
Interest rates were left unchanged in the US and UK following the ECB's latest dopey hike.
Economies are weakening under the strain of past rate hikes. Particularly the dopey ones.
Is Euroscepticism, pre-Brexit style, going to make a comeback?
Support for Ukraine - is it fracturing?
Saying goodbye to the Welsh economy.
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Latest data and forecasts for the Irish economy suggest 'growing but slowing'
Unemployment is forecast to stay very low - essentially an economy at full employment
Unemployment in many countries is forecast to stay low, despite low or no growth. That's because labour markets have been puzzlingly tight for years. Are we just extrapolating the recent past and forgetting that unemployment could rise?
Bond markets expect rate cuts next year. They won't get thise without a rise in unemployment, which few, if any, forecasters expect.
Somebody is getting this wrong.
If I was Finance Minister for a day!
Surely realpolitik dictates less prudence now in exchange for more prudence post-election? The Central Bank & IFAC both call for prudence NOW, arguably handing the election to Sinn Fein - who will be anything but prudent with the public finances.
A big UK inflation surprise
Not such a big surprise: Sunak reveals himself to be a grubby climate change denier.
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Lots of great rugby over the last two weekends.
Uruguay scare France by playing running rugby. Really entertaining stuff. One poor clearance kick undid the Uruguayans.
The kicking game.
Tonga show Ireland up at the breakdown. Another problem for Paul O'Connell
England, so boring - but so what?
A tight point spread for Ireland S. Africa?

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US inflation rose again last month: is the good news over? The Saudi-Russian alliance seems determined to get oil prices up to $100. That could mean €2+ for a litre or petrol and/or diesel.
Interest rates look to be in 'higher for longer mode'. There is nothing good that flows from $100 oil - other than an economic slowdown/recession that will cut fossil fuel consumption & help, a little, the environment.
Putin is building a new friendship circle, including fellow megalomaniacs from N. Korea and mad mullahs from Tehran.
The advice to the next government everywhere, including UK, US and Ireland, is the same: build more houses. In the UK and Ireland that's gonna need big reforms of the planning system.
Comedians - and serious journalists - are starting to tell jokes about Sunak's chances of winning the next general election.
Are Ross O'Carroll-Kelly's D4 brothers-in-arms helping to shutter a 112 year-old cricket club?

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