The Rate Guy JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy we’re breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced with and how that could shape the rest of the year.
In case you want to check out the interesting piece we reference by Dr. Jeremy Horpedahl that suggested job gains are artificially inflated. Read Here

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong.
If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we tackle mid-week. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the different AI models, their strengths/weaknesses and origins that you might not know. We then dive into interest rate talk, the small exhale the market experienced last week, odds of a rate cut this year, info around the bid to cover ratio (linked article referenced) and we cap it off with an AI recording of the rap battle below! 
 
Hedge Advisor Rap Battle
 
Given Kendrick Lamar and Drake’s rap battle, I thought it would be interesting to see how Claude would have us battle with the other hedge advisors out there.
 
 
Pensford
Yo, it’s Pensford in the ring, call me the rate sage,
Missed a prediction or two? Yeah, but I turn the page.
Two years back, Fed moves had me in a daze,
But I evolve, adapt, and still set the stage.
 
Competitors
Hey Pensford, you think you’re the guru of the rate,
Missed the hikes, now you’re just trying to skate.
Chatham here, we’re giants, you’re just bait,
Sports in finance? C’mon, bruh, that’s second rate.
 
Pensford
Chatham’s got the size, but where’s the agility?
Forced out your founder, lost more than stability.
I keep it real, take a stand with ability,
While you sit back, no opinion, no liability.
 
Competitors
Pensford’s small time, flying in that tiny plane,
No market sway, just playing a losing game.
Your jokes fall flat, just like your rate claim,
Stick to sports, ‘cause in rates, you ain’t got no fame.
 
Pensford
CIRM, oh please, your strategy’s a maze,
Complex for no reason, clients lost in a haze.
And RCA? That flat fee’s just a phrase,
Blindsiding custys at closing? Your ethics, a craze.
 
Competitors
You’re just jealous, Pensford, of the leads we acquire,
Cold calls, maybe, but they ignite the fire.
Your data obsession? That’s just you in the mire,
While we adapt and soar, ever higher.
 
Pensford
Derivative Logic, you’re just copy and paste,
Stealing my style, but you can’t match my taste.
I’m the original, in this game, I’m laced,
With clever comebacks, watch how you’re displaced.
 
Competitors
Pensford, all talk, but where’s the proof?
Your forecasts fail, they’re just aloof.
We might borrow, but we stay under the roof,
Of innovation and truth, not just glib reproof.
 
Pensford
So here’s to Pensford, where cleverness reigns,
We miss a beat, but our humor sustains.
I’ll keep throwing verses, breaking these chains,
’Cause in this rate battle, it’s clear who gains.
 
 
Jay$
Hold up, hold up, let me step in this cypher,
Jay$ on the mic, about to make it hyper.
Y'all acting like children, throwing tantrums and shade,
While I'm steering this economy, making tough trade.
 
Pensford, you question my moves, but where's your degree?
State school educated, thinking you can school me?
I've got the cred, the experience, the clout,
My decisions are sound, no need for you to doubt.
 
Two years of rate hikes, and we're still standing strong,
Soft landing achieved, proving y'all doubters wrong.
I'm tired of being judged by those who can't see,
The bigger picture, the complexity, the responsibility.
 
We're in the last mile, inflation's final stand,
Like 8 Mile's battle, it's time to take command.
The Fed's my 313, Detroit of finance,
We'll slay this inflation beast, no matter the chance.
 
So keep your petty squabbles, your juvenile rhymes,
I've got a job to do, guiding through uncertain times.
Jay$ out, dropping the mic with finality,
'Cause when it comes rates, I'm the ultimate authority.

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the most overlooked takeaways from the Fed meeting, QT tapering, how the 10T is affected and what the jobs report is telling us.
To check out the graphs referenced read the Pensford Newsletter here.

Happy 15 years to Pensford! On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a walk down memory lane with JP. Hearing about the times he thought Pensford was going under, where the name comes from, our competitors and most importantly our team.
If you want to skip the story and get straight to the FOMC meeting, inflation and jobs talk, fast forward to the 32 minute mark.
Thanks to everyone for your support. Here's to the next 15!
 
 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why we should not be freaking out over inflation, why JP still things the Fed is cutting, how transportation costs have affected Supercore and which direction wage growth is trending. 
Check out the Pensford Newsletter for graphs/links referenced. And for those interested in checking out JP's Eagles Spite Site. Here you go! https://howiecantdraft.com/