The Supercycle

Flip Pidot, Eli Goldfine

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The future of prediction market media. supercycle.blog

2 ngày trước

Trevor Gillan on Prediction Markets for Unresolvable Truth

Featuring Trevor Gillan. One of our most interesting conversations. Trevor has a really unique idea of a futures exchange for superforecaster consensus on a certain disputed truth, which sounds quite vague but you’ll learn more after you take a listen! Episode #7 of the Supercycle podcast. Next episodes include Robin Hanson, Clément Lesage, and Lucas Kohorst. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

37 phút
26 thg 6

Manifest 2026: Takeaways and Shenanigans

Featuring Quroe (a repeat guest), Tumbles, and Chris Gerlacher. I barely figured out the equipment in the Lighthaven podcast room, but nevertheless this was a lot of fun to record! You’ll learn about what goes down at one of the most esoteric conferences in the world. I also want to acknowledge Shreyas Kyada, who did a fantastic job of producing this episode! Episode #6 of The Supercycle podcast. Episodes to be released soon: Robin Hanson, Trevor Gillan, Martin Shkreli. (!) Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

32 phút
3 thg 6

Mick Bransfield on Litigation, Legislation, and the Future of Prediction Markets in the US

Featuring Mick Bransfield. We discuss how the CFTC is handling lawsuits against states challenging their authority to regulate derivatives exchanges and how a changing CFTC could impact the industry in the future. How hard is it to put the genie back in the bottle? Markets predict a democratic president will be inaugurated in January 2029. What does that mean for Designated Contract Markets such as KalshiEX? Episode #5 of The Supercycle podcast. The Supercycle will be live at Manifest to interview Robin Hanson. Hope to see you there! Mentioned links: Eli on the Minnesota bill: Mick’s website: https://mickbransfield.com Mick’s X: @MickBransfield Legislation Tracker: https://mickbransfield.com/2026/02/28/prediction-market-2026-legislation-tracker/ Litigation Tracker: https://mickbransfield.com/2025/08/11/summary-of-legal-actions-involving-kalshis-sports-event-contracts/ Database of Prediction Market Projects: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vGjnJPxdnBKwag3Q9Uy_LdVAARaSHrI5CWiYKH7dV9s/edit?gid=1671608647#gid=1671608647 Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

46 phút
21 thg 5

Predictive Accuracy Is Not Driven by Insiders

I was honored to speak at this Elastics event at CV Labs Zug. My talk is about 10 minutes, but you can watch Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig speak at the same event in the full recording. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

12 phút
12 thg 5

John Aristotle Philips on Atomic Bombs, the CFTC, and the Value of Information

Featuring John Aristotle Philips. Our best episode yet! We discuss the value and ethics of democratizing information, how PredictIt got their no action letter, where the prediction market industry is going, and (as always) if futarchy could solve nuclear war. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

37 phút
4 thg 5

Manifold: Death Markets, Manipulation, Shenanigans

Featuring Quroe, jim, and Mary Smith. Our strangest podcast. As a suspected AI joins in the middle of the meeting, we quickly decipher that this is, in fact, a real human using a voice filter. Nevertheless, we had some discussions about insurance using protocols such as Augur and how every prediction market is a bounty subject to manipulation. Episode #3 of The Supercycle podcast. Later this week we’ll be analyzing public comments on the CFTC’s proposed rule-changes, and next week we’ll be airing an episode with Michael Fischer of Endpoint Arena, the first prediction market for clinical trial outcomes. Eli will be attending a prediction market meetup in Zug, Switzerland, on May 15 courtesy of Elastics. Be sure to stop by if you’re in the area! RSVP here. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

39 phút
27 thg 4

Harry Crane on Insider Trading, Market Microstructure, and Futarchy

Featuring Harry Crane. Harry has some great insights on market mechanics! One of the most interesting podcasts we’ve done, as well as the first episode co-hosted by both Eli and Flip since the rebrand. Episode #2 of The Supercycle podcast. We’ve got some very exciting guests coming up, so stay tuned for the next episode drop on Monday! And in case you missed it, read our investigation into left-wing media company More Perfect Union. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

45 phút
20 thg 4

Metaculus Forecasters Panel

Featuring Ben Shindel, Yann Riviere, and Adonis Silva. Excellent conversation including discussion on forecasting process, data intake, how prediction markets differ from traditional forecasting, and even some P(Doom) reveals at the end. Episode #1 of The Supercycle Podcast. We’re looking forward to podcasting with Harry Crane later in the week. Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

41 phút
16 thg 4

Interview with Mikhail Samin

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

48 phút
5 thg 4

Polyfactual on Bayesian Supercycle

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49 phút
28 thg 3

Interview with Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

1 giờ 11 phút
26 thg 3

Bayesian Supercycle Interview w/Flip Pidot

Get full access to Bayesian Supercycle at itsnotgambling.substack.com/subscribe Get full access to The Supercycle at supercycle.blog/subscribe

1 giờ 4 phút

12 tập

The future of prediction market media. supercycle.blog

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Flip Pidot, Eli Goldfine
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