2일 전

Locked In, Locked Out

The Thread · Issue #10 · August 10, 2026 The housing market didn't just get expensive — it stopped moving. This issue traces why: a building shortage that never recovered, a rate-lock freeze that's uniquely American, and a downsizing math that keeps owners in place while a whole generation waits outside. The result locks some people in and shuts others out, and the only force that reliably loosens it is building. Chapters 0:00 — A studio behind a side gate 2:15 — A shortage, then a traffic jam 3:10 — The correction that never came 5:15 — Why the thirty-year mortgage is uniquely American 7:20 — Downsizing, from my side of the desk 9:40 — The traffic jam: how the moving chain froze 11:20 — The homes that were never built 12:40 — Who this lands on — and what to actually do Sources and further reading Where the thirty-year fixed sits now (Freddie Mac PMMS): https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms Institutional investors as a minor factor in prices (Freddie Mac research): https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20220609-what-drove-home-price-growth-and-can-it-continue Institutional investors as a small share of the market (Urban Institute): https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/will-regulating-large-institutional-investors-actually-make-housing-more-affordable New limits on the largest investors (the Road to Housing Act, via CNBC): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/11/21st-century-road-to-housing-act-homebuyers-sellers.html The mortgage rate lock-in effect, measured (Federal Housing Finance Agency): https://www.fhfa.gov/research/papers/wp2403 Rate lock as ~40% of the price gap (Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies): https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research-areas/working-papers/mortgage-rate-lock-and-house-prices History of the FHA and the long-term mortgage (HUD): https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/fhahistory Homeownership rate, historical series (US Census Bureau): https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html The thirty-year mortgage and ownership (Ed Pinto, American Enterprise Institute): https://www.aei.org/housing-center/housing-finance/housing-finance-fact-or-fiction-fha-pioneered-the-30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-during-the-great-depression/ The capital-gains home-sale exclusion (IRS): https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc701 Property-tax transfer for homeowners over 55 (California Proposition 19): https://www.boe.ca.gov/prop19/ Moving chains research (Evan Mast, Journal of Urban Economics): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119021000656 The supply side of the housing challenge (St. Louis Fed): https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/apr/supply-side-of-us-housing-challenge Young adults living with parents, 2000–2017 (Urban Institute): https://www.urban.org/research/publication/young-adults-living-parents-basements Housing costs and young adults, by income and metro (Urban Institute): https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/high-housing-costs-are-keeping-more-young-adults-their-parents-homes About The Thread The Thread is a biweekly essay from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners — following the connections that shape your financial life. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy: a calmer way to stay informed. Read and subscribe at matthewgdavis.substack.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

7월 27일

Will It Still Be There?

Will It Still Be There? The Thread · Issue #9 · July 27, 2026 The retirement trust fund is projected to run short in 2032 — and the honest translation of "runs out" isn't "gone." This issue traces what the headline gets right, what it gets wrong, and why a problem this well documented still hasn't been fixed. The answer has almost nothing to do with the math. Chapters 0:00 — Will it still be there? The question every client asks 1:30 — What Social Security is, and why we built it 3:15 — Why it's at risk: the demographics underneath 4:45 — What 2032 actually means 7:00 — Why a 22% cut hits deeper than a percentage 8:45 — Can they actually do this? Flemming v. Nestor and the promise 10:15 — It can be fixed — and it has been before 12:45 — The common thread: attention, not fear Sources and further reading Elderly poverty, 1959 (NBER): https://www.nber.org/bah/2004number2/social-security-and-elderly-poverty Report of the Committee on Economic Security to Roosevelt, 1935 (SSA History): https://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/ces/ces5.html Poverty without Social Security, official measure (Census Bureau, via the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service): https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45791 Worker-to-retiree ratio, 2026 Trustees context (J.P. Morgan Asset Management): https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/retirement-insights/hot-topic-social-security-2026-trustee-report-context-clarity-path-ahead/ Life expectancy at 65, historical (SSA History): https://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html 2032 depletion, Trustees summary (SSA): https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/ Combined-fund date, 2034 (SSA press release): https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/press/releases/2026-06-09.html Projected reductions (Congressional Budget Office): https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62271 Average monthly cut near $500 (CRFB, via Fortune): https://fortune.com/2026/06/05/social-security-24-percent-cut-2032-crfb-scott-bessent-back-door/ Your earnings record (SSA my Account): https://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/ Flemming v. Nestor, 1960 (SSA History): https://www.ssa.gov/history/nestor.html The taxable-wage cap (CNBC): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/million-dollar-earners-social-security-2026.html Read the full piece https://matthewgdavis.substack.com [replace with the final issue URL at publish] About The Thread The Thread is a biweekly essay from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners — following the connections that shape your financial life. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and traces it back to the economy: a calmer way to stay informed. Read and subscribe at matthewgdavis.substack.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

7월 13일

Why Cheap Energy Can't Reach Us Yet

Why Cheap Energy Can’t Reach Us Yet The Thread · Issue #8 · July 13, 2026 You keep hearing energy is getting cheaper, but your bill only climbs. Both are true — and the gap between them is the whole story. This issue takes an electric bill apart: why the cost of making power has collapsed to the cheapest in history, why that’s the one part of your bill behaving, and why the real climb is in the wires and the fire. It ends where the hope is — cheap local power, batteries, and what all of it lets us do next. Chapters Estimated — will refine after audio QC. 0:00 — Open 0:30 — Ray, and the bill that keeps climbing 2:00 — The cheapest power we’ve ever made 4:30 — So cheap it goes negative (and gets spilled) 6:30 — The fear that quietly faded 8:00 — Two things sharing one bill: generation vs. delivery 10:30 — Wires and fire 13:00 — Both things are true 14:30 — What cheap power lets us do next: remote grids, batteries, Australia 17:30 — So what do you do with this Sources and further reading Lazard, cost of building new power by source (solar/wind cheapest for the tenth year; new gas at a ten-year high): https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/levelized-cost-of-energyplus-lcoeplus/ Our World in Data, long-run collapse in solar panel prices: https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth Negative wholesale prices in Southern California (~1,180 hours in 2024): https://resurety.com/article-negative-prices-in-caiso/ EIA, California curtailed 3.4 million MWh of wind and solar in 2024 (93% solar), and the solutions: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65364 Haas / Energy Institute at UC Berkeley, generation is a minority of a California bill: https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/report-reveals-inequity-in-electricity-pricing-calls-for-rate-reform-to-help-fight-climate-change/ Severin Borenstein on why California rates are high (delivery, not generation): https://www.energysage.com/news/ca-electricity-rates-increase-96-percent-2014-to-2024/ EIA, California residential electricity price (~35 cents/kWh): https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ California rates up ~40% since 2019, steepest in the nation (Energy Institute at UC Berkeley): https://www.edhat.com/california/news/california-sees-nations-largest-electricity-rate-increase-up-39-since-2019/ Wildfire as a growing share of a California utility’s costs: https://www.solarwithwatts.com/eds-blog/why-is-electricity-so-expensive-in-california SCE rate advisory (wildfire self-insurance): https://www.sce.com/save-money/rates-financing/sce-rate-advisory IEA, rising cable and transformer prices: https://www.iea.org/news/rising-component-prices-and-supply-chain-pressures-are-hindering-the-development-of-transmission-grid-infrastructure PowerMag, transformer demand and shortages: https://www.powermag.com/transformers-in-2026-shortage-scramble-or-self-inflicted-crisis/ Yale E360, PG&E remote grids replacing fire-prone lines: https://e360.yale.edu/digest/microgrids-power-lines T&D World, the Briceburg remote grid through a 2021 wildfire: https://www.tdworld.com/distributed-energy-resources/article/21278234/pge-remote-grid-delivers-wildfire-safety-and-ratepayer-savings CAISO, California battery storage growth (2020–2025): https://www.caiso.com/documents/2024-special-report-on-battery-storage-may-29-2025.pdf Clean Energy Council, Australia rooftop solar at scale: https://cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news-resources/rooftop-solar-and-storage-report-july-to-dec-2025 Read the full piece The written edition, with every source linked inline: https://matthewgdavis.substack.com/ About The Thread The Thread is a biweekly essay by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, following the connections between the economic forces and the everyday financial decisions they shape. One thread per issue, pulled slowly, from what you’re feeling about money back to the systems underneath it. Compliance disclosure The full compliance disclosure for this episode is available with the text of this post, at matthewgdavis.substack.com. This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

6월 29일

The Price of Optimism

The Price of OptimismThe Thread · Issue #7 · June 29, 2026 A rocket company went public, the stock soared and then gave much of it back — and underneath the noise sits a plainer question: when you buy a stock like this, what are you actually buying? This issue traces the gap between a company's fundamentals and its story, and why you may already own a piece of the most-talked-about stock on the market without ever choosing to. Chapters0:00 — The couple's question1:25 — What you're actually buying: fundamentals vs. story3:30 — SpaceX: five companies in one ticker4:50 — The valuation gap: $2T vs. $780B6:45 — A great product isn't a good investment8:00 — What moves the price without moving the business9:45 — Why you may already own it11:20 — What to do with this12:45 — Close Sources and further reading SpaceX first-week surge, float, and the Nasdaq "human spirit" quote — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-spcx-live-updates.html Current valuation — Investing.comhttps://www.investing.com/equities/spacex Morningstar's $780B fair-value estimate — NPRhttps://www.npr.org/2026/06/12/nx-s1-5855004/stock-ai-spacex-ipo-elon-musk 2025 revenue and net loss — Morningstarhttps://www.morningstar.com/stocks/6-charts-spacexs-s-1-financials AI venture renting compute to rivals — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/google-to-pay-spacex-920-million-a-month-for-xai-compute-capacity.html$25 billion debt sale — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/23/spacex-debt-bond-market-ipo.html How index funds are adding SpaceX — Morningstarhttps://www.morningstar.com/funds/spacex-ipo-how-index-funds-are-adapting S&P 500 holding out — CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/spacex-blocked-from-early-us-benchmark-index-entry-as-sp-reaffirms-existing-rules.html Rivian owner satisfaction — Consumer Reportshttps://www.consumerreports.org/cars/rivian/r1t/2025/owner-satisfaction/ Read the full piece: https://matthewgdavis.substack.com About The Thread The Thread is a biweekly essay and audio edition from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It starts with what people are actually feeling about money and life, and traces it back to the economy — so you understand not just what's happening to you, but why. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

6월 22일 · 보너스

What Did We Borrow For?

What Did We Borrow For? The Thread · Special Report · June 22, 2026 Episode summary A client in his early sixties asked me a question I couldn't put down: we've borrowed tens of trillions of dollars — where did it all go, and who actually pays it off? This special report pulls that thread. Almost all of it went to making the present easier — cushioning two crises, cutting taxes, fighting wars — and very little to building the future. Now the interest bill has crossed a trillion dollars a year, and the bill is coming due just as the generation meant to pay it grows smaller. The number isn't destiny. It's the sum of choices we can still see clearly enough to act on. Chapters Estimated — will refine after audio QC 0:00 — Cold open 0:25 — Ron's question: where did it all go? 1:14 — Putting the number in proportion 2:18 — Where it all went 3:45 — The cost of carrying it 5:14 — Why this time is different 6:26 — Ron's date: Social Security's math 8:09 — Not a cliff, a decision 9:41 — What I'd actually tell Ron 10:54 — The common thread 12:11 — Where to read the full piece Sources and further reading The number and the proportion The 2001 surplus and CBO's projection to pay off the debt, plus the breakdown of how the debt rose since — including the share passed with bipartisan votes — Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget https://www.crfb.org/papers/riches-rags-causes-fiscal-deterioration-2001 The current national debt (above $39 trillion) — U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/ Debt as a share of GDP, and the interest-cost projections — Congressional Budget Office https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61882 The cost of carrying it The federal interest bill crossing $1 trillion a year (and how it compares with defense and Medicaid) — American Action Forum, on CBO's February 2026 outlook https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/highlights-of-cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook/ The 30-year Treasury auction clearing 5% — CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/treasurys-yields-inflation-traders-fed-interest-rates.html Why this time is different Defense spending after World War II, and why today's fiscal outlook is harder — Peter G. Peterson Foundation https://www.pgpf.org/article/why-is-the-us-fiscal-outlook-more-daunting-now-than-after-world-war-ii/ The ratio of workers to Social Security beneficiaries — Peter G. Peterson Foundation https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-ratio-of-workers-to-social-security-beneficiaries-is-at-a-low-and-projected-to-decline-further/ The worker-to-beneficiary ratio falling below 2.5 — Bipartisan Policy Center https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/immigration-social-security-solvency/ Social Security's trust-fund projections — Social Security Administration, Trustees Summary https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/ Read the full piece The written edition includes every source linked inline and all four charts embedded directly. https://matthewgdavis.substack.com Related — why the cost of an ordinary life keeps climbing (Issue #4): https://matthewgdavis.substack.com/p/the-thread-issue-4-may-18-2026 About The Thread The Thread is a biweekly newsletter and podcast from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It follows the connections between the economic and political stories shaping your financial life — for readers and listeners who want a calm, data-driven lens on a noisy news cycle. Compliance disclosure Matthew Davis is the co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, LLC (”Sherwood”). Sherwood is a registered investment adviser. This platform and this briefing are solely for informational purposes and do not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. The information contained herein is not intended to convey or constitute legal or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Comments by viewers or third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment outcomes and do not ensure that a viewer will experience a higher level of performance or results. Public comments posted on this site are not selected, amended, deleted, or sorted in any way. If applicable, certain editing of personal identifiable information and misinformation may be deleted. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain Sherwood personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Sherwood believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated. This briefing may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas; these are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Such charts, graphs, and formulas offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

6월 15일

What Your Insurance Card Doesn't Cover

The Thread — Issue #6 | June 15, 2026 When Coverage Doesn't Reach Care Episode summary Coverage in America is near record highs, and we spend more on healthcare than any nation on earth — yet an insurance card keeps turning out to be a smaller promise than people expect. This issue follows that gap across three fronts: where Medicare stops at the nursing-home door, why more of the best providers are leaving insurance behind, and how "ghost networks" fill plan directories with doctors who never answer. What your card says you have, and what you can actually get, have quietly drifted apart — and the distance has real consequences for your money. Chapters Estimated — will refine after audio QC 0:00 — Cold open 0:21 — The promise, and where it stops 2:55 — Coverage at record highs, care out of reach 4:04 — The best providers are opting out 6:31 — Why providers are leaving 7:44 — When the network is a ghost 9:17 — What this means for you 11:21 — The common thread 12:42 — Where to read the full piece Sources and further reading Medicare and nursing-home costs Medicare's skilled nursing facility coverage and the 20-to-100-day rules — Medicare.gov https://www.medicare.gov/coverage/skilled-nursing-facility-care National median cost of nursing-home care — CareScout (Genworth) Cost of Care https://www.carescout.com/cost-of-care Coverage and national health spending ACA marketplace premiums after the enhanced subsidies expired — CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/how-much-aca-premiums-spiked-after-enhanced-subsidies-ended.html National health expenditures (5.3 trillion dollars; about 15,474 dollars per person; 18% of GDP) — CMS https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/historical How U.S. health spending compares with other wealthy countries — Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-spending-u-s-compare-countries/ Providers leaving insurance Psychotherapist and psychiatrist insurance acceptance in Georgia — Medical Care (2025) https://journals.lww.com/lww-medicalcare/fulltext/2025/02000/factors_associated_with_psychotherapist_and.6.aspx Psychiatrists' acceptance of private insurance — Bishop et al., JAMA Psychiatry (2014) https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3967759 Growth of concierge and direct primary care — Johns Hopkins / Health Affairs https://hub.jhu.edu/2025/12/18/concierge-medicine-rising-hopkins-research/ MRI prices: hospital vs. freestanding imaging center — GoodRx https://www.goodrx.com/health-topic/diagnostics/how-much-does-an-mri-cost Ghost networks Senate Finance Committee "secret shopper" study of Medicare Advantage mental-health directories https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/wyden-calls-for-action-to-get-rid-of-ghost-networks-releases-secret-shopper-study New York investigation finding most listed providers unreachable or not in-network — ProPublica https://www.propublica.org/article/ghost-networks-health-insurance-regulators Free help with your own coverage State Health Insurance Assistance Program — free, one-on-one Medicare counseling https://www.shiphelp.org/ Medicare — official site https://www.medicare.gov/ KFF — plain-language health policy explainers https://www.kff.org/ HealthCare.gov — the official insurance marketplace https://www.healthcare.gov/ Read the full piece The written edition includes every source linked inline and the charts embedded directly. https://matthewgdavis.substack.com About The Thread The Thread is a biweekly newsletter and podcast from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It follows the connections between the economic and political stories shaping your financial life — for readers and listeners who want a calm, data-driven lens on a noisy news cycle. Compliance disclosure Matthew Davis is the co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, LLC (”Sherwood”). Sherwood is a registered investment adviser. This platform and this briefing are solely for informational purposes and do not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. The information contained herein is not intended to convey or constitute legal or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Comments by viewers or third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment outcomes and do not ensure that a viewer will experience a higher level of performance or results. Public comments posted on this site are not selected, amended, deleted, or sorted in any way. If applicable, certain editing of personal identifiable information and misinformation may be deleted. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain Sherwood personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Sherwood believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated. This briefing may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas; these are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Such charts, graphs, and formulas offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

6월 1일

The Good You Can't See

The Thread — Issue #5 | June 1, 2026 The Good You Can't See In a year of mostly bad headlines, here are three things that are quietly, measurably going right in America — homicide at a modern low, cancer survival transformed, lives lengthened — plus the abundance hiding in plain sight. This issue is about why the good news is so hard to see, and what that invisibility costs the institutions doing the slow work. Chapters (estimated — will refine after audio QC) 0:00 — Open 0:20 — What I'm pulling at 1:30 — The good you can't see: homicide, cancer, longevity 5:30 — The abundance that doesn't reach you 8:30 — Why you can't see it 10:30 — The cost of not seeing 13:30 — The common thread 14:20 — Close and disclosures Sources and further reading The good you can't see Council on Criminal Justice — Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2025 Update https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2025-update/ Stateline — US crime rates fell nationwide in 2024 https://stateline.org/2025/08/08/us-crime-rates-fell-nationwide-in-2024-fbi-report-says/ Congressional Research Service — early-1990s crime wave https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12281 ABC News — US poised to end 2025 with the largest one-year drop in homicides https://abcnews.com/US/us-poised-end-2025-largest-year-drop-homicides/story?id=128646976 National Cancer Institute, SEER Program — survival, all cancers combined https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/all.html AACR Cancer Progress Report 2025 https://cancerprogressreport.aacr.org/progress/cpr25-contents/cpr25-cancer-in-2025/ CDC National Center for Health Statistics — life expectancy https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db521.htm The abundance that doesn't reach you Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — real GDP per capita, series A939RX0Q048SBEA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA Bureau of Labor Statistics — productivity https://www.bls.gov/productivity/ Why you can't see it Gapminder — Rosling "Factfulness" knowledge quiz https://upgrader.gapminder.org/ The cost of not seeing Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission report https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-FCIC KFF — opioid overdose deaths, national trends https://www.kff.org/mental-health/opioid-overdose-deaths-national-trends-and-variation-by-demographics-and-states/ Congressional Research Service — 737 MAX certification reform https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12843 Washington Post — 2018 stress-test rollback for mid-sized banks https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/03/silicon-valley-bank-stress-test/ IQVIA — prescription opioid volumes down 60% from 2011 peak https://www.iqvia.com/newsroom/2020/12/prescription-opioid-use-in-the-us-has-declined-by-60-from-2011-peak-according-to-new-report-from-the CDC — statement on provisional 2024 overdose deaths https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2025/2025-statement-from-cdcs-national-center-for-injury-prevention-and-control-on-provisional-2024.html Federal Reserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/ Read the full piece [Issue #5 Substack URL — add on publish] About The Thread The Thread is a biweekly briefing that connects the biggest economic and political stories — the ones actually shaping what you pay, what you earn, and what you can afford — and follows them back to what's really going on underneath. Hosted by Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, a fee-only RIA in California. Authoritative about the facts. Curious about what they mean. Never alarmist, never partisan. A calmer way to stay informed. Disclosures Matthew Davis is the co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners, LLC ("Sherwood"). Sherwood is a registered investment adviser. This platform and this briefing are solely for informational purposes and do not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. The information contained herein is not intended to convey or constitute legal or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Comments by viewers or third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment outcomes and do not ensure that a viewer will experience a higher level of performance or results. Public comments posted on this site are not selected, amended, deleted, or sorted in any way. If applicable, certain editing of personal identifiable information and misinformation may be deleted. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain Sherwood personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. Sherwood believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated. This briefing may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas; these are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. Such charts, graphs, and formulas offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

5월 25일 · 보너스

The Cupboards Are Full

The Cupboards Are Full The middle-class deal didn't get harder. It got retired. Matthew walks through the single chart that explains why one generation looks at American life and sees abundance while the next feels structurally crushed. Through Sarah — a composite client whose numbers don't reconcile no matter how disciplined she is — the special report follows the gap between the categories that got cheap (everything in your living room) and the categories that got expensive (everything you actually need to live). And then: what you can actually do with this if your math feels like Sarah's. Chapters 0:00 — Welcome and intro 0:35 — Sarah's question (why two generations see different economies) 2:30 — The Chart of the Century 5:00 — Sarah's actual numbers 7:45 — The levers are gone 10:00 — Baumol's cost disease (and why it's not the whole story) 11:30 — Four institutional choices that make the U.S. version worse 14:45 — The new discipline: a reframe, not a fix 17:00 — Geography as the biggest lever 18:30 — The harder truth 19:45 — Close Estimated — will refine after audio QC. Sources and further reading Mark Perry, "Chart of the Century" (updated through December 2025), American Enterprise Institute. The chart referenced throughout, tracking BLS Consumer Price Index data for fourteen categories of American spending since 2000. https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-century-8/ Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM). Monthly index tracking the share of median household income needed to afford the median-priced home. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/home-ownership-affordability-monitor William J. Baumol and William G. Bowen, Performing Arts: The Economic Dilemma (1966). The original framing of what later became known as Baumol's cost disease. Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, "How does health spending in the U.S. compare to other countries?" The source for the U.S.-versus-comparable-countries healthcare cost comparison. https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-spending-u-s-compare-countries/ KFF, 2025 Employer Health Benefits Survey. The annual benchmark for employer-sponsored health insurance premiums and worker contribution shares. https://www.kff.org/health-costs/2025-employer-health-benefits-survey/ Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, "Five Ways Residential Mobility Has Changed in the Pandemic Era." The source for the post-2020 migration patterns referenced in the geography section. https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/five-ways-residential-mobility-has-changed-pandemic-era American Hospital Association, Fact Sheet on Graduate Medical Education residency caps. Background on the 1997 Balanced Budget Act cap and the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act of 2025. https://www.aha.org/medical-educationteaching-hospitals/physician-leaders/medical-education Read the full piece The written edition includes all the sources linked inline and the chart embedded directly. https://matthewgdavis.substack.com About The Thread The Thread is a biweekly newsletter and podcast from Matthew Davis, co-founder of Sherwood Financial Partners. It follows the connections between the economic and political stories shaping your financial life — for readers and listeners who want a calm, data-driven lens on a noisy news cycle. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit matthewgdavis.substack.com

The Thread

Locked In, Locked Out

Will It Still Be There?

Why Cheap Energy Can't Reach Us Yet

The Price of Optimism

What Did We Borrow For?

What Your Insurance Card Doesn't Cover

The Good You Can't See

The Cupboards Are Full

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One of the more insightful podcasts

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The Thread

에피소드

Locked In, Locked Out

Will It Still Be There?

Why Cheap Energy Can't Reach Us Yet

The Price of Optimism

What Did We Borrow For?

What Your Insurance Card Doesn't Cover

The Good You Can't See

The Cupboards Are Full

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소개

정보