The Unknown Knowns

Sibylline Podcasts
Sibylline Podcasts
  • 5.0 (7)
  • Management

Each episode of  The Unknown Knowns  explores what happens when intuition meets tradecraft — when the data ends and genuine insight begins. This series dives into how intelligence professionals, leaders, and decision-makers sharpen judgment, confront bias, and elevate their craft. From cognitive blind spots to the art of influence, it’s a space for people who think for a living — and want to think better, lead smarter, and communicate with impact.

  1. 4d ago

    Know Your BATNA

    What is your best alternative if the deal in front of you falls through? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores BATNA, or Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement. This negotiation concept offers a useful framework for decision-making far beyond the negotiating table. Using stories ranging from a heavily discounted necklace in a Pakistani souq to job offers, university choices and organisational decisions, Angela examines how anchoring, sunk costs, loss aversion and status quo bias can distort our judgement. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV Sibylline website: https://www.sibylline.co.uk

  2. Sep 9

    Rocky Road and Roller Skates: Complexity Theory

    What happens when the system you're trying to understand keeps changing? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores complexity theory and the difference between complicated systems and complex adaptive systems. Using a childhood story about roller skates, a broken arm and a hospital waiting room, she explains how people, organisations, markets and adversaries adapt to one another and change the environments they operate in. Angela also explores feedback loops, emergence, tipping points and the Cynefin framework, including the value of “probe, sense, respond” when prediction is not enough. Complexity does not mean anything can happen; it means the system gets a vote. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV Sibylline website: https://www.sibylline.co.uk #ComplexityTheory #IntelligenceAnalysis #DecisionMaking #Leadership #CriticalThinking #Intelligence #Tradecraft

  3. Sep 2

    Over the Hedge: Bayesian Reasoning and the Art of Changing Your Mind

    What happens when the world changes but your mental model does not? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores Bayesian reasoning through the unlikely lens of the 2006 animated film Over the Hedge. When a group of woodland animals discovers that a giant hedge has appeared across their familiar environment, they are forced to confront a problem that intelligence professionals, leaders and decision makers face every day: how do you respond when new evidence challenges what you thought you knew? Angela examines the difference between stubbornly clinging to an outdated assessment and overreacting to a single dramatic development. Bayesian thinking offers a middle ground, helping us update our beliefs in proportion to the evidence rather than abandoning the entire map every time something unexpected appears. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup Follow Sibylline on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow Sibylline on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Watch Sibylline on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information: https://www.sibylline.co.uk

  4. Aug 26

    Beyond Vibes: Why Structure Is What Makes Analysis Trustworthy

    What makes analysis trustworthy? It is not simply the quality of the information or the confidence of the analyst. It is the quality of the thinking that connects evidence to judgement. In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores the role of structured analytic techniques in making reasoning more transparent and easier to challenge. From questioning key assumptions and generating alternative explanations to identifying inconsistencies and testing competing hypotheses, structure can help analysts avoid becoming trapped by the first explanation that fits. But structure has its own risks. Techniques can become performative, with organisations focusing on completing the process rather than genuinely challenging their thinking. The episode considers why the right question is not simply which technique to use but what could go wrong with our thinking and which approach is best suited to exposing that weakness. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk

  5. Aug 19

    It's Hard Not to Be Romantic About Baseball

    What can baseball teach us about intelligence analysis? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis turns to the world of baseball and the story of the Oakland Athletics to explore how data, strategy and human judgement interact when outcomes remain uncertain. Using Moneyball as a starting point, Angela examines the difference between improving the probability of success and actually controlling the outcome. Data can reveal patterns, challenge assumptions and help us make better decisions, but it cannot eliminate uncertainty or account for everything that happens when humans enter the equation. The same principle applies far beyond sport. Intelligence professionals, leaders and decision makers can use information to improve their decisions, but they still have to operate in environments where unexpected events, human behaviour and chance can change the outcome. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk

  6. Aug 12

    Cornfield Economics

    In this episode, Dr Angela Lewis explores what happens when intelligence concepts leave the classroom and start showing up in everyday life. Angela explains why experts can recognise underlying patterns across very different situations, while others can struggle to apply a concept outside the context in which they learned it. The real challenge is not memorising concepts like confirmation bias, groupthink or bounded rationality. It is recognising them when they appear in unfamiliar places and developing better mental models using intelligence tradecraft as a broader way of navigating human judgement. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup Follow Sibylline on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow Sibylline on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Watch Sibylline on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information: www.sibylline.co.uk #Intelligence #CriticalThinking #CognitiveBias #Judgment #DecisionMaking

  7. Aug 6

    The Art of the Jedi Mind Trick (Part 2)

    Where is the line between influence and manipulation and how do you know when you've crossed it? In Part 2 of this series, Dr Angela Lewis moves from theory to practice, exploring how influence works in the real world and the ethical questions it raises. She examines why intent alone is not enough, how context shapes perception and why the most effective influence often leaves people feeling they made the decision themselves. Rather than offering simple rules, Angela provides a practical framework for recognising ethical influence, avoiding manipulation and becoming more aware of the techniques that shape decisions every day. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk #Leadership #CriticalThinking #Psychology #Influence

  8. Jul 30

    The Art of the Jedi Mind Trick (Part 1)

    What separates persuasion from manipulation? Is there a clear line, or do most forms of influence exist somewhere in between? In Part 1 of this two-part series, Dr Angela Lewis explores the psychology and ethics of influence through an unforgettable story about a couple who both tried to end their relationship without ever having an honest conversation. From there, she unpacks the broad spectrum of influence, from education and advocacy to negotiation, collaboration and manipulation. Drawing on philosophy, psychology and intelligence tradecraft, Angela examines why influence is an essential part of leadership and intelligence work, why manipulation is so difficult to define and why transparency and agency may be the key differences between ethical influence and something more problematic. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignup If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review. You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=en Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/ Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV For more information, visit our website: www.sibylline.co.uk #IntelligenceAnalysis #Leadership #CriticalThinking #Psychology #DecisionMaking #Influence

See All (25)

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
7 Ratings

About

Each episode of  The Unknown Knowns  explores what happens when intuition meets tradecraft — when the data ends and genuine insight begins. This series dives into how intelligence professionals, leaders, and decision-makers sharpen judgment, confront bias, and elevate their craft. From cognitive blind spots to the art of influence, it’s a space for people who think for a living — and want to think better, lead smarter, and communicate with impact.

Information

More From Sibylline Podcasts

You Might Also Like