The Virtual Tout®

Thomas Miller
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We talk about measurement, statistics, data science, and journalism. We have conversations with experts. We use prediction markets and surveys to forecast the behavior of consumers, investors, and voters. We follow the data and lead with science, promoting informed social and political discourse. News on Data Science Quarterly. Forecasts at https://twitter.com/virtualtout

Episodes

  1. 12/24/2020

    Political Horizon Charts

    Political horizon charts help us to analyze the progress of campaigns and elections. Even to an untrained eye, it is easy to identify trends across time both within and between the panels of a political horizon chart. Red and blue show Republican and Democratic advantages, respectively. White suggests a competitive election. The political horizon chart was introduced by Tom Miller in Data Science Quarterly and on Twitter as part of his analysis of the presidential and senatorial elections of 2020/21. It is a valuable tool for data journalists. Concepts reviewed in this episode apply equally to margin-of-victory and chance-of-winning scales, as illustrated in a cheat sheet. Voting margin-of-victory scales are especially useful for comparing alternative election forecasting methods, such as preference surveys (political polls), prediction markets, and prediction surveys. A working paper provides additional discussion. Music: Enchanté by Vendredi is licensed under a Creative Commons License   Listen to the full track.

    11 min
  • 1 Episode

About

We talk about measurement, statistics, data science, and journalism. We have conversations with experts. We use prediction markets and surveys to forecast the behavior of consumers, investors, and voters. We follow the data and lead with science, promoting informed social and political discourse. News on Data Science Quarterly. Forecasts at https://twitter.com/virtualtout

Information

  • Creator
    Thomas Miller
  • Years Active
    2K
  • Episodes
    1
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Thomas Miller
  • Show Website
    The Virtual Tout®