121 episodes

Soumaya Keynes (The Economist) and Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) cohost a podcast about the economics of international trade and policy. From trade wars to trade deals, this podcast covers trade developments with insights and economic analysis from two of the world's top trade geeks.

Trade Talks Soumaya Keynes & Chad P. Bown

    • Business

Soumaya Keynes (The Economist) and Chad P. Bown (Peterson Institute for International Economics) cohost a podcast about the economics of international trade and policy. From trade wars to trade deals, this podcast covers trade developments with insights and economic analysis from two of the world's top trade geeks.

    119. Stock Markets, the Economy, and Trump’s Trade Policy Uncertainty

    119. Stock Markets, the Economy, and Trump’s Trade Policy Uncertainty

    Nick Bloom (Stanford University) joins to discuss the increase in trade policy uncertainty under President Trump and implications for investment and economic growth. They describe new ways of measuring policy uncertainty – including the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, as well as surveys – and recent evidence of its impact, including on the US stock market.



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    Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steve Davis. 2016. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty, Quarterly Journal of Economics.Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steve Davis. 2019. The extraordinary rise in trade policy uncertainty, VoxEU.org, September 19. Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon. 2019. What Triggers Stock Market Jumps? Stanford University manuscript.

    118. Ins and Outs of the US-China Phase-One Trade Deal

    118. Ins and Outs of the US-China Phase-One Trade Deal

    Two former USTR negotiators join to explain the details of the new US-China trade agreement. Agriculture negotiator Darci Vetter (Edelman, 3:50) describes China’s new commitments toward US farm products, and foreign investment negotiator Lauren Mandell (WilmerHale, 18:30) explains changes to China’s legal system, protection of intellectual property, as well as the agreement’s dispute settlement provisions. Finally, we get the reaction of the business community (33:00) before Simon Rabinovitch (The Economist, 37:15) joins to provide the perspective from China.



    Episode Transcript [PDF]



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    Soumaya Keynes. 2020. The new US-China trade deal marks an uneasy truce. The Economist, January 16. Soumaya Keynes. 2020. Free Exchange: The costs of America’s lurch towards managed trade. The Economist, January 25. Chad P. Bown. 2020. Unappreciated Hazards of the US-China Phase One Deal. PIIE Trade and Investment Policy Watch, January 21.Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Government of the United States and the Government of the People’s Republic of China. January 15, 2020.

    117. Trump’s Import Tariffs Have Hurt US Exports

    117. Trump’s Import Tariffs Have Hurt US Exports

    New evidence reveals a side effect of President Trump’s import tariffs. The research shows that, through US supply chain linkages, the new US tariffs on imported inputs are directly contributing to the recent slowdown in US exports of outputs. Kyle Handley (University of Michigan) joins to discuss the potential causes and consequences of these results.



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    Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal and Ryan Monarch. 2020. Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism. NBER Working Paper No. 26611, January.

    116. Fish Subsidies. What’s the Catch?

    116. Fish Subsidies. What’s the Catch?

    The WTO is failing to meet a 2020 deadline set by the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals to negotiate limits to fisheries subsidies. To figure out why, we went to Geneva and spoke with Alice Tipping (International Institute for Sustainable Development) and Mukesh Bhatnagar (Centre for WTO Studies). We describe difficulties on getting a deal to restrain subsidies which lead to overcapacity and overfishing, as well as eliminating subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing.



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    Basak Bayramoglu, Brian Copeland, Marco Fugazza, Jean-François Jacques. 2019. Trade and negotiations on fisheries subsidies. VoxEU.org, 21 October.FAO. 2018. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture 2018. Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations, Rome.Marco Fugazza and Tansung Ok. 2019. Fish and fisheries products: From subsidies to non-tariff measures. UNCTAD Research Paper Series, UNCTAD, Geneva.Enric Sala, Juan Mayorg, Christopher Costello, David Kroodsma, Maria L. D. Palomares, Daniel Pauly, U. Rashid Sumaila, and Dirk Zeller. 2018. The economics of fishing the high seas. Science Advances.U. Rashid Sumail, Naazia Ebrahim, Anna Schuhbauer, DanielSkerritt, Yang Li, Hong Sik Kim, Tabitha Grace Mallory, Vicky W.L. Lam, Daniel Pauly, 2019. Updated estimates and analysis of global fisheries subsidies. Marine Policy 109: 103695.World Economic Forum. 2019. David Attenborough explains what we need to do to stop over-fishing. Youtube video, 8 October.

    115. The Trade War and US Elections

    115. The Trade War and US Elections

    Republicans lost 40 seats in the 2018 elections for the US House of Representatives. Emily Blanchard (Tuck School of Business) joins to discuss new research that investigates how Trump’s trade war affected the 2018 election. The evidence suggests the combination of the trade war and attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act may have cost the Republicans as many as 15 House seats.



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    Blanchard, Emily J., Chad P. Bown, and Davin Chor. 2019. Trump’s trade war cost Republicans congressional seats in the 2018 midterm elections. VoxEU.org, 26 November.Blanchard, Emily J., Chad P. Bown, and Davin Chor. 2019. Did Trump’s Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? Working Paper, November.

    114: US and China Announce a Phase-One Deal

    114: US and China Announce a Phase-One Deal

    Trump’s US Trade Representative provides a fact sheet and more detail on the first stage of the deal announced December 13 to address the administration’s trade war with China. The fact sheet previews an eventual 86 page legal agreement that would include additional Chinese commitments on intellectual property rights protection, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, currency, dispute resolution, and expanding trade. Bown and Keynes also discuss what the Trump administration has agreed to do with all of the new tariffs it has imposed on China, as well as what is not in the phase one deal.



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    Soumaya Keynes. 2019. America and China reach a “phase one” trade deal. The Economist, 14 December.Chad P. Bown, 2019. Phase One China Deal: Steep Tariffs Are the New Normal. Peterson Institute for International Economics Trade and Investment Policy Watch Blog, 19 December.Chad P. Bown. 2019. US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart. Peterson Institute for International Economics, 19 December.

Customer Reviews

John_F_ ,

Best presented policy podcast

Maybe the best presented policy podcast. For not one but two reasons: Soumaya and Chad. Ok, also it has great, detailed content that is very well researched. Caveat: you need to be into trade, but who isn’t these days? Other policy podcasts could learn a lot here, in more ways than one...

Kevin-IL ,

Always Excellent

I’ve been a listener for over a year now and absolutely love your podcast. Great content, narration, guest speakers, and I like the new sounds added in too! Nice touch!

Frankv42 ,

Stephen Vaughn

I had stopped listening for a while due to weariness with your simplistic and fruitless “solutions” to trade imbalances and theft (yet more consultations and the WTO). I truly enjoyed someone finally balancing your one-sided views. Her condescending comments on Trump and his supporters was laid bare. US voters chose him for a change of direction, too bad it doesn’t fit your ideas.
I have a Masters in International Business and managed a US company in China for 13 years. I would listen more if you have more guests like Mr. Vaughn.

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