Unqualified Advice

Sean Filipow and Daniel Hatke

Hello and welcome to Unqualified Advice, an entertaining show for entertainment purposes. Join us as we talk about running our small businesses, what we've been learning, and how we're applying lessons from academia and real life as entrepreneurs and investors.

  1. 06/02/2025

    Oikos and Nomos: What Is the Economy, Really?

    This week, Dan and Sean dive into the deep end of economic uncertainty—from the philosophical origins of "the economy" to the lived reality of layoffs, inflation, and shifting trade routes. Why do oil rigs in North Dakota matter to the price of cheese? Are we witnessing demand destruction or just another panic? And what does "creative destruction" really look like when the grenades are turning into landmines? Along the way: internal combustion nerdery, fourth turning fatigue, and a fair bit of macroeconomic exasperation. If you're feeling off-balance in today's economy, you're not alone. We're all just trying to stay afloat in choppy waters—and sometimes the best you can do is keep your head up and wait for the next swell. Books Discussed: In This Economy? – Kyla Scanlon A Splendid Exchange – William J. Bernstein Amusing Ourselves to Death – Neil Postman The Fourth Turning – William Strauss and Neil Howe The Siege – Ben Macintyre The Fifth Risk (and a new companion) – Michael Lewis Podcasts Referenced: Odd Lots Hidden Forces (Grant Williams + Demetri Kofinas – The Hundred Year Pivot) The Fed Guy (Joseph Wang) Quote of the Week: "They're not grenades anymore—they're landmines we've set for ourselves." Chapters: 00:00 – Weekend work and the managerial grind 01:00 – Oilfield layoffs and sour vs. sweet crude 04:00 – Why internal combustion is still the apex of engineering 06:00 – What does "economy" actually mean? (spoiler: it's Greek) 10:00 – Sheep barons, trade routes, and the roots of specialization 14:00 – Consumer sentiment vs. reality: is the mismatch getting worse? 18:00 – Tariffs, inflation, and the risk of stagflation 24:00 – Layoffs, rate cuts, and the Fed's boxed-in dilemma 30:00 – Budget gaps, fake fixes, and the math that doesn't math 34:00 – The future of global trade (with or without us) 39:00 – Will the Fed move fast enough—or too late again? 45:00 – NIH cuts and the role of scientific "waste" 51:00 – A fresh read from Michael Lewis + other book recs 56:00 – The fourth turning isn't over: the ecpyrosis continues 59:00 – Swimming, surfing, or just floating through it all 1:04:00 – Walmart's margins and the myth of "just eating" tariffs 1:10:00 – Median income, optionality, and the meaning of wealth 1:13:00 – Outro: shifting sands and the promise (or threat) of change

    1h 16m
  2. 04/24/2025

    Say No to Ferrets: The NAFTA Myth and the Dresden Reality

    🧵 Episode Summary In this episode, Dan and Sean delve into the complexities of tariffs, the decline of U.S. manufacturing, and the philosophical underpinnings of leadership. They challenge conventional narratives around NAFTA, explore the historical impact of events like the bombing of Dresden, and discuss the strategic philosophies of Sun Tzu, Lao Tzu, and Donald Trump. The conversation also touches on the challenges of reshoring manufacturing, the intricacies of global supply chains, and the disparities faced by U.S. sellers on platforms like Amazon. 📚 References & Mentions Books: The Maniac (historical fiction on John von Neumann) A Splendid Exchange by William J. Bernstein The Tao Te Ching – Lao Tzu The Art of War – Sun Tzu The Art of the Deal – Donald Trump Substacks: Market Memo: Seeing the Stag from Citrini Research - Companies: Amazon Apple Craftsman Chevron Exxon Unusual Whales 🕰️ Chapter Breakdown 00:00 – Mustelid Mischief: A Ferret Allegory for Tariffs 01:18 – Who We Are: Sean and Dan Reintroduce Themselves 03:03 – Liberation Day and Tariff Mayhem 06:56 – Options, Whiplash, and Quiet Billionaires 09:21 – From Bretton Woods to Financialized Fragility 13:05 – The Myth of NAFTA and Manufacturing Decline 16:23 – America, Socks, and the Imaginary Labor Army 19:02 – Merchant Marines and Military Logistics 24:33 – Deep Supply Chains, Shallow Solutions 29:19 – Nukes and the Trigger Points of War 34:03 – The Compound Effects of Complexity 36:25 – The Tao of Strategy: Sun Tzu, Trump, and Lao Tzu 44:48 – Governance by Table: Three Philosophies Compared 48:20 – Amazon's Tilted Playing Field and Ecom Frustrations 52:48 – Bezos vs. Jassy: Vision, Risk, and Systems Thinking 59:40 – An Economic NATO? Supply Chain Strategy for the Future 1:02:07 – Why We Can't Make a Wrench 1:10:02 – Corporate Whiplash, Lead Times, and Stainless Steel 1:14:14 – The Stock Market Is Not the Economy 1:17:21 – Book Recs and Trading as Human Nature

    1h 22m
  3. 03/19/2025

    Crude Realities: The Organization Breathes

    Hello show notes readers! This week, Sean and Dan look into the rhythms of the oil and gas world — how things speed up, slow down, and sometimes just stop. They talk about layoffs making headlines, how organizations expand and contract like they're breathing, and what it feels like to be on the inside when that happens. Sean explains why fewer rigs don't always mean less oil, and why the people most affected aren't always the ones you'd think. They get into how managers try (sometimes awkwardly) to protect and coach people, what it's like to get blindsided, and why being chased by a metaphorical predator might not be all bad — at least for keeping you sharp. The converstion takes a detour into parenting, classrooms, and whether pulling your kid out of tough situations helps or hurts in the long run. Plus: what homeschooling has in common with org charts, why messy code and stuck loops are part of building anything, and a few thoughts on agency, grace, and figuring out when to hold on or let go. Books Discussed Prometheus Rising – Robert Anton Wilson; explores consciousness, reality tunnels, and mindset shifts. Factfulness – Hans Rosling; emphasizes how the world is improving despite negative perceptions. The Fifth Risk – Michael Lewis; highlights essential but overlooked government jobs and inefficiencies. Lectures Referenced Neville Goddard: https://youtu.be/zXsZnDakDVA     Chapters 00:00 - Weather and Cyclicality 01:07 - Oil Layoffs & Market Trends 02:55 - Why the U.S. Exports Oil 06:38 - Fracking & Efficiency Gains 07:34 - The Workplace "Breathes" 12:47 - The Role of Fear & Agency 16:52 - Education & Homeschooling Trends 28:38 - AI, Coding, and Debugging Frustrations 40:57 - AI Slack Bots for Work Productivity 50:43 - Prometheus Rising & Reality Tunnels 55:15 - Telepathy Tapes & The Tower of Babel 1:02:00 - Manifestation & The Power of Thought 1:06:02 - Government Jobs & Bureaucracy Debates 1:17:05 - Wrapping Up: Big Topics & Future Thoughts

    1h 10m

Ratings & Reviews

4.5
out of 5
2 Ratings

About

Hello and welcome to Unqualified Advice, an entertaining show for entertainment purposes. Join us as we talk about running our small businesses, what we've been learning, and how we're applying lessons from academia and real life as entrepreneurs and investors.