Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. HÁ 2 DIAS

    The New Valuation Regime | Jim Paulsen on Confidence, Inflation and the Coming Market Supports

    In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves. Topics covered in the episode: The job market’s pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisions Why recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systems The narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cycles Investor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability models How easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growth What “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOs The disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measures Gold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today’s environment The impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectations Valuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiples Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and market overview02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks09:00 Bull market without normal supports17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies23:55 Confidence and the misery index29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy34:00 Broadening of market participation37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields45:10 The role of gold in portfolios50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways

    1h9min

  2. HÁ 4 DIAS

    Finding the Next Great Tech Compounders | John Tinsman

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost, profitable growth, digital toll booths, and the transformative impact of AI. John also discusses his approach to valuation, position sizing, and why he believes large-cap growth and technology will continue to lead in the years ahead. Main topics covered: John’s path from personal investing to launching an ETF Lessons learned from early stock picks and market-making experience The power of low marginal cost businesses and long-term compounding How AI is reshaping software development, innovation, and profitability The importance of revenue and earnings growth in stock selection Digital toll booths as the future of software business models Differences between profitable vs. unprofitable growth companies Why technology leadership today differs from the dot-com era The role of sectors, valuation, and position sizing in portfolio construction John’s views on growth vs. value, large-cap vs. small-cap, and future innovation trends Timestamps: 00:00 The riskiest thing in investing 02:00 John’s background and early investing journey 05:00 Lessons from Apple, Boeing, Visa, and Potash 10:00 Insights from agriculture and value investing 12:00 AI’s impact on software development and innovation 16:00 Sectors, classifications, and thematic approaches 18:00 Comparing AI disruption to past bubbles 21:00 Profitability in today’s tech companies 22:00 Will the top companies stay dominant? 26:00 Large-cap vs. small-cap technology investing 28:00 Growth vs. value in today’s market 30:00 Demographics, Buffett’s lessons, and sector shifts 34:00 Value vs. software companies 35:00 Digital toll booths explained 37:00 Growth sustainability and digital infrastructure 40:00 Semiconductor cycles and long-term demand 44:00 Screening for growth and low marginal cost 47:00 Sell discipline and valuation checks 49:00 Position sizing and portfolio management 51:00 ETF tax benefits and structure 53:00 Where AOTG fits in portfolios 54:00 One belief peers disagree with 56:00 One lesson for the average investor 57:00 Closing thoughts and outro

    57min

  3. 22 DE SET.

    Finding Decade-Long Compounders with Joseph Shaposhnik

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also explore lessons from great investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, and Peter Lynch, along with insights on valuation, portfolio concentration, and the role of passive investing in today’s markets. Main topics covered: How Joseph achieved long-term outperformance at TCW and what drove his results Why recurring revenue and predictable cash flows are central to his approach The importance of management quality and identifying “fanatics” vs. mercenaries Lessons investors should and should not take from Warren Buffett Bill Miller’s influence and backing of Rainwater Equity Characteristics Joseph looks for in great businesses and red flags in management teams Portfolio concentration, position sizing, and risk management Why you don’t need to have an opinion on every sector Selling discipline and knowing when it’s time to move on How valuation fits into his framework and how he thinks about paying up for quality The impact of passive investing and why active managers must take a long-term view Stories and lessons from Peter Lynch, including his enduring influence Timestamps: 0:00 If a stock has doubled, you haven’t missed it 1:00 Introduction and Joseph’s track record at TCW 2:00 Keys to long-term outperformance 8:00 Lessons from Warren Buffett’s wins and mistakes 11:30 Bill Miller’s influence and support for Rainwater Equity 14:00 What defines a high-quality business 20:00 Free cash flow compounding and moats 24:00 Red flags in management teams 31:00 Why active management is broken and Joseph’s solution 35:00 Portfolio concentration and risk management 42:00 Sectors to avoid and why 47:00 Joseph’s selling discipline 53:00 Exceptional leaders and the role of management quality 58:00 Valuation, future value, and the changing economy 1:04:00 Passive investing and market distortions 1:09:00 Lessons and stories from Peter Lynch 1:14:00 Closing questions and key investing lessons 1:20:00 Where to learn more about Joseph and Rainwater Equity

    1h22min

  4. 20 DE SET.

    The Average Return That Never Comes | Sam Ro on 10 Stock Market Truths Investors Get Wrong

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Sam Ro to revisit his widely read post “10 Stock Market Truths” and explore how each principle holds up in today’s market. From the long game of investing to short-term risks, valuations, AI, and earnings, Sam shares a timeless framework for navigating markets and separating noise from signal. Topics covered: • Why the long game is undefeated • Short-term volatility and how to prepare for it • The myth of average returns • Asymmetric upside in markets and stocks • AI as both opportunity and risk • Earnings as the ultimate driver of stock prices • Why valuations don’t predict the next year • The role of uncertainty and hidden risks • Turnover and evolution within the stock market • Why the stock market isn’t the economy Timestamps: 00:00 Average returns are misleading 02:00 Introducing Sam Ro 02:15 Truth #1: The long game is undefeated 08:40 Truth #2: You can get smoked in the short term 14:20 Do markets have a government backstop? 18:00 Truth #3: The myth of average returns 23:00 Truth #4: Asymmetric upside 28:00 AI as macro and micro driver 33:00 Truth #5: Earnings drive stock prices 36:30 Truth #6: Valuations won’t tell you much about next year 51:40 Truth #7: There will always be something to worry about 55:20 Truth #8: The destabilizing risks are the ones people aren’t talking about 01:05:00 Truth #9: There’s a lot of turnover in markets 01:11:00 Truth #10: The stock market isn’t the economy 01:20:00 Closing thoughts

    1h26min

  5. 17 DE SET.

    Exceptionalism Is Ending. New Winners Are Rising | Olga Bitel on the $2 Trillion Opportunity

    In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI’s productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade’s best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks through the risks she’s watching, why facts change faster than narratives, and practical ways to connect top-down insights with bottom-up research. Topics covered The Perpetual Growth Machine: why needs spark innovation and growth, and how investors can spot it early Why monopolies look great to investors but hurt long-term growth and innovation AI as a general purpose technology and the scale of potential productivity savings Housing affordability, incomes, and policy bottlenecks through the PGM lens How firms are actually adopting AI and how faster data changes research cadence Europe’s defense build-out and the rise of national champions and small-cap innovators Interpreting market concentration and what it signals about competition Inflation oscillation, policy mix, and why the Fed’s tools have limits Tariffs as a regressive tax and how costs pass through to consumers over time US exceptionalism narrowing and why ex-US markets may lead in the coming cycle The Draghi report and tearing down barriers inside the EU single market Comparing late-1990s tech to today’s AI build-out and who the next leaders may be Growth vs. value: focusing on sustained profit inflections, not cheapness alone Using stakeholder analysis to link macro themes to bottom-up stock work Biggest opportunities: Japan, Korea, Europe, select emerging markets, and parts of the Middle East Biggest risk: a breakdown in the global order amid US-China tensions Closing lessons: stay curious, stay nimble, question narratives, track the facts Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Olga’s role at William Blair 02:49 The Perpetual Growth Machine explained 06:24 Policy bottlenecks, incentives, and growth 09:32 AI as a general purpose technology and productivity math 11:53 Practical AI adoption inside investment firms 15:06 Where PGM points to opportunity right now 16:26 Europe’s defense spending and emerging winners 19:02 Macro setup and consumer health 20:42 Inflation today and what’s changed under the hood 22:46 The Fed’s dilemma and limits of monetary policy 25:00 Tariffs 101: who pays and how it shows up 28:55 Early evidence in goods prices 29:41 US exceptionalism vs. the rest of the world 31:00 The Draghi report and a real EU single market 33:11 Can Europe and others catch up in tech? 36:15 EU financial services barriers and capital deployment 37:07 Portfolio implications: why look ex-US 39:10 Late-1990s tech vs. today’s AI cycle 41:20 Concentration risk and competition policy 42:26 Value vs. growth through the PGM lens 44:48 Base rates, sustaining growth, and churn at the top 49:33 Marrying macro themes with bottom-up research 51:08 Firsthand observation vs. headline narratives 52:20 Biggest opportunities across regions 53:00 Middle East changes and new listings 54:48 Biggest risk: global order and US-China tensions 55:36 Parting advice for investors

    56min

  6. 15 DE SET.

    Bull Market on Borrowed Time | Ned Davis Chief Strategist Tim Hayes on the Indicators That Matter

    Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold’s secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You’ll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim’s timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible. Topics Covered NDR’s 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”) How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked out Secular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turn Reading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could mean Concentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the world Where value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotations Gold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocation Practical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold “No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicators Using historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from them Tim’s core lesson: you can’t forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-driven Timestamps (YouTube Chapters) 00:00 Don’t fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context) 01:06 Intro and why NDR’s process beats single charts 02:58 NDR’s 360° framework and composite models 05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation 08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record 09:27 “Secular bull intact; secular-bear risk rising” explained 13:04 What counts as a secular bear (’66–’82, 2000–’09) 15:05 Tightening vs. easing cycles and thrust reliability 16:22 What a breadth thrust actually looks like 19:55 From sentiment extremes to 50/200-day confirmation 20:06 Bonds and stocks: the correlation flip since 2022 22:47 Duration, rate-cut hopes, and why cash led in 2022 24:02 Mega-cap concentration risk—paths from here 27:23 Valuation: tech earnings yield at extremes; U.S. most expensive 29:14 Where value/small caps/EM can win; China’s role in EM 33:25 Gold’s standout year—drivers and positioning 36:16 Gold’s secular and cyclical bull case 37:13 How much gold belongs in a balanced portfolio 40:32 “No Pets Allowed”: trust aggregates, not single signals 47:16 Bear-watch vs. rally-watch signals in 2025 49:02 Using historical analogs without overfitting 51:00 NDR culture: objectivity over narratives 53:41 Why independence matters 53:59 Two closing questions: contrarian belief and one lesson 59:03 Where to find Tim and NDR; disclaimer

    1h

  7. 12 DE SET.

    Brent Donnelly on the Fed, Inflation, and Why 2% No Longer Matters

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, and the lessons he’s learned about risk management, narratives, and humility in markets. Topics Covered: Why the Fed is becoming more political and what that means for markets The “re-acceleration that wasn’t” and lessons from quickly abandoning trades How to structure trades like gold calls and TLT puts for asymmetric payoff FX as the “exhaust valve” for tariffs and global capital flows Canada’s housing bubble and CAD vulnerabilities Inflation targeting, bond vigilantes, and the Fed’s credibility Avoiding the trap of perma-bearishness and using stop-losses as forced humility The importance of imagination in regime changes and Fed forecast errors How Brent is using LLMs and AI to trade headlines, structure trades, and analyze patterns Trading bubble names with options and risk-aware structures Lessons on flexibility, humility, and embracing uncertainty in markets Timestamps: 00:00 – Fed independence and political pressure 02:00 – The failed “re-acceleration” thesis 06:00 – Structuring gold calls and TLT puts 14:00 – FX as the exhaust valve for tariffs 20:50 – Canada’s housing market and CAD risks 26:30 – The Fed as a political institution 32:40 – Inflation targeting and 3% as the new 2% 35:20 – Avoiding perma-bear bias and using stop-losses 42:00 – The Fed dinner story and the humility of wrong forecasts 46:30 – Using LLMs and AI in trading 53:00 – Shorting bubble names with call spreads 56:00 – Cheat sheets and pattern recognition with AI 59:30 – Lessons on flexibility and humility in trading 1:02:15 – Closing thoughts and where to follow Brent

    1h4min

  8. 10 DE SET.

    Cullen Roche on Inflation, AI and Why the Debt Crisis is Overblown

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more disinflationary pressures than inflationary risks. We also dive into his “defined duration” investing framework and preview his upcoming work on portfolio strategies. Topics Covered Why fears of a looming debt crisis may be misplaced Inflation outlook, tariffs, and the Fed’s “soft landing” challenge The importance of Fed independence and risks of politicization Immigration, demographics, and long-term disinflationary trends How AI is reshaping productivity, inequality, and the job market Defined Duration Investing and asset-liability matching Lessons from all-weather strategies and the Permanent Portfolio Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio” and future of global markets Timestamps 00:00 – Cullen on debt crisis fears 02:32 – State of the U.S. economy post-COVID 05:18 – Inflation, tariffs, and shelter costs 10:25 – Soft landing vs. rolling recessions 14:07 – The Fed’s role and impossible job 19:25 – National debt and Ray Dalio’s crisis warning 27:52 – AI boom and disinflationary forces 31:01 – Immigration, demographics, and inflation 37:23 – Aging population and wealth inequality 43:00 – How AI impacts productivity and jobs 52:00 – Defined Duration Investing explained 1:01:34 – Portfolio strategies: Permanent Portfolio & risk parity 1:03:54 – Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio” 1:06:31 – Closing thoughts and future projects

    1h7min
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Informações

  • Criado por
    Excess Returns
  • Anos de atividade
    2019 - 2025
  • Episódios
    381
  • Classificação
    Livre
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Site do podcast
    Excess Returns

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