In this week’s Voices From The Front & The Wire Tap, Chris and I unpack a week where Ukrainian politics, Russia’s mounting problems, North Korea’s expanding involvement and some very unusual diplomatic activity are beginning to collide. We start with Ukraine’s 35th Independence Day — more than four years after Russia expected its full-scale invasion to end with the rapid seizure of Kyiv, instead, the war continues, Russian losses continue to mount, and a deceptively simple question is becoming increasingly important: Who is actually winning the war of attrition? That takes us directly to Mykhailo Fedorov and the growing debate over Ukrainian elections. I supported Fedorov and sympathised with him following his dismissal. But his increasingly public criticism of the government, warning that Ukraine risks losing the war, and his push for elections raise serious questions. Ukrainians wanting elections isn’t controversial, holding them now is. How do millions of displaced Ukrainians vote? What about soldiers on the frontline or people under occupation? How do you campaign, secure polling stations and prevent Russia exploiting the process while ballistic missiles and drones are still striking Ukrainian cities? The protests following Fedorov’s dismissal were fundamentally about reform, innovation, corruption and how Ukraine fights this war — not one political personality. Calling for elections without a credible plan risks turning that reform debate into a political power struggle. Then we turn to Russia. Former Russian macroeconomist Andrei Klepach warned that Moscow was not winning the economic war of attrition. His comments resurfaced in Russian media, and shortly afterwards, he was gone. Russia also faces a growing manpower problem. We discuss reports of a potential 300,000-man mobilisation, continued recruitment from Russia’s poorer regions and battlefield losses running at roughly the equivalent of two to three battalions every day. And increasingly, Russia isn’t fighting with Russian resources alone. North Korea’s involvement is expanding: more troops, more specialists, more ballistic missiles and more manpower supporting Russia’s war economy. Ukraine has become a laboratory for modern warfare, with Russian and North Korean weapons tested against Western air defences while Ukraine races to develop drones, interceptors and new ways of striking the launchers rather than endlessly shooting down the missiles. So why is the West still treating North Korea’s direct participation as peripheral? That leads into one of the strangest developments of the week — reports surrounding a CIA visit to Moscow, amid increasing Russian hybrid activity across Europe and fears that one miscalculation could trigger something far bigger with NATO. Russia. North Korea. Iran. Foreign manpower. Foreign weapons. Foreign specialists. Are we still waiting for a wider war to begin — or are we already living through one and simply refusing to call it that? Finally, I explain why I’m in Lviv. Last year we visited a Ukrainian POW facility and met foreign fighters recruited into Russia’s military from Africa, Nepal, India, Sri Lanka and elsewhere. One prisoner asked us a simple question: Could we tell his mother he was alive? She hadn’t heard from him for eight months. We called her. Now, a year later, we’re going back, to find some of those same prisoners, see how they are coping and continue investigating the international recruitment machine feeding Russia’s war. Some were deceived. Some knew exactly what they were joining. Some were professional fighters. But behind them is a much bigger story involving recruiters, money, propaganda, Russian diplomatic infrastructure and networks stretching across continents. This week: Fedorov and elections, Russia’s manpower crisis, North Korean escalation, the CIA in Moscow, the growing danger of a wider war — and the reason I’ve travelled to western Ukraine. Voices From The Front & The Wire Tap — cutting through the noise and reporting what we’re actually seeing from Ukraine. Thank you PJ Schuster, Debórah, HJD playing outside, Sue Henger, Leslie in CA, and many others for tuning into my live video with Chris Sampson! Join me for my next live video in the app. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit shaunpinner.substack.com/subscribe
