The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Capital Economics
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Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

  1. APR 30

    A tough macro backdrop gets tougher. Will equities care?

    A day after Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist Jason Tuvey discuss how long the conflict in the Middle East could continue and why Iran’s collapsing economy is not a reliable guide to when the regime might capitulate. Speaking with David Wilder, they also explore how central bankers are navigating the inflation risks posed by a prolonged disruption to energy supply, as well as what the UAE’s departure from OPEC could mean for oil markets and what it signals in a world of intensifying US–China competition. And in a packed week for equities investors, Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann assesses how key Big Tech earnings reports have landed and explains why bonds have not been performing nearly as well as equities. Related content Read: How long can Iran hold out?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update/how-long-can-iran-hold-out Read: Forecasting through the fog of warhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1

    35 min

  2. APR 24

    What if the energy shock gets worse? And what to expect from a Warsh-led Fed?

    The Iran conflict is approaching its third month, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil is back above $100 per barrel. How safe is the assumption that this will all be resolved soon, and what happens to commodity prices, growth and inflation if it isn’t? In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join David Wilder to unpack the macro and market assumptions behind our ‘adverse’ conflict scenario. They discuss how far commodity prices could rise and whether that risks tipping the global economy into recession – but also why some of the latest data suggest the initial macro hit from the energy shock may not have been as severe as first feared. Also on the show, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could mark Jerome Powell’s final one as Chair. With Kevin Warsh waiting in the wings, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown considers Powell’s legacy, but also the policy implications of a change in Fed leadership. That includes why Warsh could push for a different inflation gauge to target, but also why tensions with the White House may not go away. Related content Read: Powell’s departure upstaged as Warsh readies Fed revamphttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-fed-watch/powells-departure-upstaged-warsh-readies-fed-revamp Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Signals from the April meetingshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-signals-april-meetingsIran conflict: Global macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict

    31 min

  3. APR 17

    Global imbalances, all over again | Gulf economies in crisis

    Global imbalances are back. But how serious is the threat this time, and could they trigger the next phase of global economic instability? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack what is driving balance of payments positions to worrying extremes, why a more fragmented and volatile world raises the stakes, and why Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are unlikely to take meaningful steps to address these tensions when they meet next month. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey examines the economic shock hitting Gulf economies as a result of the Middle East conflict, and what it means for their long-term development ambitions. Related content Drop-In: China’s shock to the eurozone – economic fallout and policy choiceshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-chinas-shock-eurozone-economic-fallout-and-policy-choices Can China’s trade surplus rise further?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/can-chinas-trade-surplus-rise-further War dealing a heavy blow to the Gulf economieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/middle-east-north-africa-economics-update/war-dealing-heavy-blow-gulf-economies

    35 min

  4. APR 10

    A fragile ceasefire: What next for economies and markets?

    The latest Weekly Briefing covers the global outlook, financial markets and energy. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the ceasefire in the Middle East means for growth and inflation, how quickly the world economy could recover if it holds, and what happens if fighting resumes. James Reilly, a Senior Economist on our Markets team, joins to run through updated forecasts for equities and bonds, why markets have held up relatively well, and why the stock market highs expected before the war now look out of reach. Plus, in an exclusive clip from a recent client briefing, our Climate & Commodities team explain why restoring oil supply is not as simple as flicking a switch, and the constraints on refined product output. Related  Iran conflict: Global macro and market implicationshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict Watch: How the Middle East conflict has changed the price outlookhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-how-middle-east-conflict-has-changed-price-outlook Mapping the next stage of the AI rallyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/mapping-next-stage-ai-rally Get trial access: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/solutions/subscription-products#trial-request

    36 min

  5. APR 1

    AI and economies: from capex boom to productivity payoff

    The AI hype cycle shows no sign of slowing. But how much are the hundreds of billions in investment actually boosting economies, and when will that spending translate into meaningful productivity gains? In this episode, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood discusses her new report, 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?', the latest addition to Capital Economics’ analysis of AI’s global impact. In conversation with David Wilder, she separates hype from reality, covering:  Which economies are benefiting most from the global AI build-out  Why recent US productivity gains are evidence of AI’s impact  If the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt the AI rollout  Whether fears of an AI-driven jobs apocalypse are justified  What the Citrini note gets wrong about AI’s macro impactRead 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?': https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-deeply-ai-taking-hold-economy

    22 min

  6. MAR 26

    Global Economic Outlook: Forecasting in the fog of war

    Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the more benign scenario would deliver a negative but manageable shock to the global economy, while a more adverse outcome could tip it into outright recession. Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory explains why gilts have been the hardest hit among G10 government bonds as tensions have escalated. She explores the sharp shift in expectations for Bank of England policy and the underlying fiscal vulnerabilities fuelling market anxiety – including the risk of a change in government leadership. Read our latest Global Economic Outlook: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1

    30 min

  7. MAR 20

    Policy in a time of conflict: Central banks and the growth-inflation trade-off

    Pity the poor central banker. As energy prices surge, they are grappling with the trade-off between growth and inflation, while trying to communicate this all to markets without triggering an unwanted tightening in financial conditions. At the end of an unusually busy week for policy meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown assess how central banks are managing this difficult task, and whether investors are right to position for rate hikes from some banks that only a few weeks ago were expected to ease policy this year. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, they talk to David Wilder about issues including: How inflation risks in the global economy are crystallising as the conflict approaches its fourth weekWhat separates central banks, from the Bank of England and ECB to the BOJ, RBA and the Fed, in how they are likely to respondWhether interest rate cuts would come back onto the table if the fighting were to endJoin our 26th March online briefings about our new macro and market forecasts: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-economic-and-market-outlook-pricing-energy-shock

    27 min

  8. MAR 12

    Oil, war and economies – Three scenarios for the Middle East conflict

    News of a record release of emergency oil reserves has quickly been overshadowed by images of tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirteen days into the conflict, tensions in the Middle East appear to be escalating rather than easing. What is the view from commodity and financial markets, and what could this mean for the global economy? Capital Economics has modelled three scenarios to assess how oil and gas supplies and prices could evolve as the conflict unfolds, and what this might mean for global growth, inflation, central bank policy and financial markets. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing: Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how our scenarios map out potential paths for oil and gas supply and prices, depending on the duration of the conflict and the extent of damage to production and infrastructure.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains how these scenarios could translate into different growth and inflation outcomes globally, and what they might mean for central bank policy — including what to expect from the upcoming meetings of the Fed, Bank of England, ECB and Bank of Japan.Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explores how financial markets could respond, how far prices might rebound in the event of a ceasefire, and which trades may never fully recover.Explore all our coverage of the conflict, including our scenarios here: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict Interested in trial access? Email us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com

    32 min
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Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

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