The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Capital Economics
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Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

  1. 2D AGO

    Oil, war and economies – Three scenarios for the Middle East conflict

    News of a record release of emergency oil reserves has quickly been overshadowed by images of tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirteen days into the conflict, tensions in the Middle East appear to be escalating rather than easing. What is the view from commodity and financial markets, and what could this mean for the global economy? Capital Economics has modelled three scenarios to assess how oil and gas supplies and prices could evolve as the conflict unfolds, and what this might mean for global growth, inflation, central bank policy and financial markets. In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing: Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how our scenarios map out potential paths for oil and gas supply and prices, depending on the duration of the conflict and the extent of damage to production and infrastructure.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains how these scenarios could translate into different growth and inflation outcomes globally, and what they might mean for central bank policy — including what to expect from the upcoming meetings of the Fed, Bank of England, ECB and Bank of Japan.Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explores how financial markets could respond, how far prices might rebound in the event of a ceasefire, and which trades may never fully recover.Explore all our coverage of the conflict, including our scenarios here: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict Interested in trial access? Email us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com

    32 min

  2. MAR 6

    Middle East conflict, oil prices and that US jobs drop

    Conflict in the Middle East, a surge in oil and gas prices, and a surprise drop in US payrolls – it’s been a turbulent week for the global economy. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss what the spreading Middle East conflict and sharp spike in energy prices mean for global growth and inflation, and why the latest US jobs report may not signal a major slowdown. Later, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist Kieran Tompkins explains the scale of disruption in global oil and gas markets, whether alternative supply can offset the shock and what the longer-term implications could be for energy markets. Read all our key insight into the Middle East conflict here:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict Get in touch for a trial to our platform:podcast@capitaleconomics.com

    31 min

  3. MAR 2

    Special Episode: Conflict in the Middle East – The key macro and market questions

    Amid widening conflict in the Middle East, our economist team held an online briefing first thing Monday to tackle some of the key questions that clients have been asking. In this edited clip from that briefing, you’ll hear the team tackle issues, including: The extent of disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for oil and gas prices;The point at which rising oil prices would force central banks to slow or abandon policy easing;The dollar as a safe haven currency in this time of geopolitical upheaval;How this conflict could shape the economic outlook for the GCC economies;The likelihood that a change of leadership in Tehran could open the way for a deal with the US.With: Jennifer McKeown (Chief Global Economist), William Jackson (Chief EM Economist), David Oxley (Chief Climate & Commodities Economist), Jonas Goltermann (Deputy Chief Markets Economist).  Note: This client briefing was held at 1000 GMT/1800 SGT on Monday, 2nd March See our dedicated Iran conflict page below for more key analysis, and contact us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com to find out about access.  https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict

    19 min

  4. FEB 27

    Can China finally fix its economic model?

    Is China’s latest Five-Year Plan about to reset its economic model and tackle the imbalances weighing on both the domestic and global economy? Speculation always builds ahead of a new Five-Year Plan. But this time, the stakes feel higher. With growth slowing, debt risks lingering and external tensions elevated, could this Plan mark a genuine turning point? That is what Julian Evans-Pritchard will be watching for as the National People’s Congress opens in Beijing on Thursday. On The Weekly Briefing, he joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing to talk to David Wilder about the outlook for China’s domestic and external imbalances and to address the key questions, not least how this adjustment will proceed, how willing its trading partners will remain to absorb China's goods surplus and whether this all risks tipping the world into crisis? Elsewhere in the episode, Megan Fisher from our Commodities team revisits the cocoa price boom she had long warned was unsustainable. Now that prices have collapsed, she sifts through the fallout to explain what comes next and whether chocoholics are likely to see any relief. Events and analysis referenced in this episode China NPC Drop-In https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-key-takeaways-npc-and-new-five-year-plan UK Spring Statement Drop-Inhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-chancellors-spring-statement-fiscal-signals-political-risks-market-implications US non-farm payrolls previewhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/health-care-likely-be-key-driver-payrolls-again

    42 min

  5. FEB 20

    Supreme Court special: What the Trump tariffs ruling means for macro and markets

    The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this legal ruling for the US economy, for Federal Reserve policy and for financial markets. In their conversation with David Wilder, Stephen and Jonas address key issues, including: How the White House could rebuild its tariff regime – and rebuild it quicklyWhat happens when billions of dollars in tariff refunds flow back into US company accounts Why signs of resurgent inflationary pressures are narrowing the room for Fed rate cutsHow the bond market is responding to the Supreme Court newsWhy the stock market rally has stalled, and whether this news could get it going again.Related reading IEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2%https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economics-weekly/ieepa-ruling-unlikely-pull-pce-inflation-back-2 Stock market rotation is a warning of trouble aheadhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/stock-market-rotation-warning-trouble-ahead SC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegalhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-rapid-response/sc-rules-trumps-ieepa-tariffs-are-illegal

    21 min

  6. FEB 13

    Brown on the US outlook, Gregory on UK politics

    From the lows of December retail sales to the highs of January payrolls, recent US data has sent mixed signals. But the economy remains in relatively good shape, argues Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown on the latest episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing. He explores why the idea of a “K-shaped” economy may be overstated, what markets are missing about the productivity growth upturn, and the chances of much lower rates from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed.  Also on the show, as Keir Starmer’s government reels from one of its toughest weeks yet, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory assesses what a change of leadership could mean for the UK economy and financial markets, but also why the long-term growth outlook may not be as bleak as recent headlines suggest. Related reading: AI already making a big contribution to US productivity growthWhy we still believe in the AI rally, and the S&P 500Would a stock market crash cause a global recession?Can China’s trade surplus rise further? Get in touch at podcast@capitaleconomics.com to learn more.

    31 min

  7. FEB 6

    Tech sell-off, AI winners and losers, and reasons to be optimistic about productivity

    In this week’s episode, Neil Shearing talks to Vicky Redwood and John Higgins about a tumultuous week in equity markets, how AI is creating winners and losers, and whether there’s any evidence that AI is starting to lift productivity growth in economies. AI already making a big contribution to productivity growthChina’s AI rollout could rival the US

    16 min

  8. FEB 3

    Inflation nation – Japan’s turning point and a critical election

    This weekend’s Japanese election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in years. As Sanae Takaichi, newly installed leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, seeks to cement her mandate, government bond yields and the yen have been moving in opposite directions amid headlines warning of plans to open the fiscal floodgates. But are markets really responding to fears of runaway spending, or to the reality that Japan is finally emerging from decades of deflation?  Capital Economics’ Head of Asia-Pacific, Marcel Thieliant, and Head of Asia-Pacific Markets, Thomas Mathews, join the show to unpack what the return of inflation means for the Japanese economy, for the Bank of Japan, for government bonds and for the outcome of this weekend’s vote. Also on the show: a new US-India deal to slash eye-watering reciprocal tariff rates is the latest in a flurry of trade agreements from the Modi administration. Shilan Shah, our India research lead, explains what these deals mean for India’s economic outlook – and whether the country can truly wean itself off Russian oil. Read our key analysis about the return of inflation to Japan's economy. For Capital Economics clients: Japan Drop-In: Takaichi’s election gamble – Fiscal risks, market consequences

    33 min
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Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

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