The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Capital Economics
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Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

  1. 2d ago

    AI's macro boost, a hawkish Fed and Burnham's balancing act

    Our flagship Global Economic Outlook is just around the corner, and in this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews our view of a world in which some economies are benefiting from the AI investment boom while others are falling behind. He also discusses what to expect from next week’s US employment report and why markets are underestimating just how hawkish the Fed may need to remain to bring inflation back to target. Also on the show, with Andy Burnham’s 'coronation' as the UK’s next prime minister looking increasingly likely, what do we know about the new government’s plans? Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory from our UK team discuss the fiscal constraints that will limit a Burnham government’s spending ambitions, while explaining why falling inflation could allow the Bank of England to deliver much more monetary easing than markets currently expect. Related content UK Economic Outlook: Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cutshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economic-outlook/fall-inflation-20-2027-trigger-rate-cuts Capital Economics Eventshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

    32 min

  2. Jun 19

    Tough economic choices in a fragile peace

    A peace deal that's already showing signs of strain. Central bankers still wrestling with inflation. A new Fed chair seeking reform. And a UK local election with implications for the bond market. It’s been a busy week for macro and markets, and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to make sense of it all. Neil explains what the increasingly fragile US-Iran peace deal means for global oil supplies and the outlook for inflation and interest rates.   In his discussion, Neil reviews Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, considers the outlook for US interest rates, examines mounting trade tensions between Europe and China, and explains why the UK's next prime minister may find fiscal promises difficult to keep.

    24 min

  3. Jun 12

    Fed preview: The case for raising rates | Oil's turning point?

    Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may rise again before year-end and what to expect from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. Before that, it's Groundhog Friday, as Donald Trump again talks up an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But what if this time it really is for real and a US-Iran deal does get done? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses how the outlook could shift if energy starts flowing again, but also explains the economic risks if any deal later falls apart as crude reserves run down. Related content Fed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMCBoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising ratesBoJ on track to hike despite Ueda’s absence

    30 min

  4. Jun 5

    Fed hikes, inflation risks and AI stocks

    Are we moving towards Fed rate hikes? Even before the release of a strong May US employment report, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joined The Weekly Briefing to explain why shifting dynamics on the FOMC mean the Federal Reserve could emerge from the summer weighing the need for tighter policy to contain inflation. Plus, after another extraordinary surge in AI stocks, Chief Economic Adviser for Financial Markets John Higgins discusses how much further the rally could run, whether current earnings growth is sustainable and what could ultimately burst the stock market bubble. Related content Bar to Fed hikes appears relatively lowCapital Economics events

    28 min

  5. May 29

    A deal at last? What a Hormuz reopening would mean for oil and inflation

    This could prove another false dawn, or the US and Iran could finally reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments. But even if the strait reopens, energy flows, oil prices and, by extension, inflation won’t snap back quickly to pre-war levels. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss the new normal for global energy markets and what it means for the world economy. They explain why inflation pressures are still likely to build in the weeks ahead, even as market expectations for central bank responses have tempered in recent days. And they discuss how governments and the energy industry are now scrambling to build alternative supply routes and reduce the Strait of Hormuz’s potency as a geopolitical choke point.

    24 min

  6. May 22

    This bond market wobble won't be the last

    This latest wobble in the bond market almost certainly won’t be the last. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder on the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss the forces that have driven bond yields to multi-year highs.  They examine shifting perceptions around inflation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, the fiscal worries gnawing away at investor sentiment across the advanced economies and we're entering a world where inflation settles structurally higher than the 2% era policymakers once took for granted. And with Japan’s yield curve steepening sharply, they also discuss whether investors are beginning to question the Bank of Japan’s grip on reflation.  Also on the show, India economist Shilan Shah calls in from Mumbai to discuss how record temperatures and the global energy shock are complicating the Reserve Bank’s efforts to contain inflation pressures. He discusses the risks7 facing the rupee, the prospect of tighter monetary policy, and how the current dilemma compares with crises past. Related content Watch: Markets Drop-In: AI-driven paradigm shift or dotcom bubble redux? What’s next for equitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-ai-driven-paradigm-shift-or-dotcom-bubble-redux-whats-next-equities Read: Heatwave completes trifecta of risks for Indiahttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-update/heatwave-completes-trifecta-risks-india Explore: Fiscal Riskshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fiscal-risks

    31 min

  7. May 15

    UK Labour party meltdown, gilt yields and why the bond market always wins

    Westminster is gripped by the game of thrones around Labour's slow-mo leadership drama, which could deliver the UK's seventh prime minister in ten years. But for markets and the economy, the stakes are very real. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales tells David Wilder why.  He says all the leading contenders to replace Starmer would, to varying degrees, open the spending taps but also explains why the bond market is likely to push back hard. Paul also makes the case for the UK's medium-term outlook looking brighter than many assume, though not because of who's in charge of the country. Also on the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the latest activity data suggest the global economy has so far proved surprisingly resilient in the face of the Iran conflict – and why that resilience could soon be tested.

    29 min

  8. May 8

    The Trump-Xi meeting and the limits of a reset | Germany’s overdone pessimism

    Donald Trump travels to Beijing next week for a long-awaited summit with Xi Jinping that carries huge geopolitical significance, but one where investors should keep expectations firmly in check. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Head of China Economics Julian Evans-Pritchard join David Wilder to assess the state of the US-China relationship and why any apparent thaw in tensions may prove superficial. They discuss issues including:  Why Beijing increasingly sees the US as a power in relative decline, and how that is shaping Chinese strategy;  Why the structural forces pushing the US and China apart are likely to outlast any short-term diplomatic reset;  What’s driving the recent improvement in China’s economy, and how that could exacerbate global tensions. Also on the show, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham returns from client meetings in Germany to explain why those who had been expecting an economic turnaround last year have been left disappointed, but to also argue that the prevailing gloom around both the German economy and its politics has become excessive. Related content: Read: What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-update/what-would-new-pm-mean-uk-economy-and-markets Register: Drop-In: Is the energy shock supercharging the Chinese export boom?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-energy-shock-supercharging-chinese-export-boom Read: Taking stock of the German fiscal stimulushttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-update/taking-stock-german-fiscal-stimulus Read: Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/fiscal-stimulus-wont-fix-germanys-economy

    38 min
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About

Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

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