The J Capital Research podcast about capital markets and the art and science of investing. Music: "Avalon Blues" by Mississippi John Hurt. The podcasts are for information purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice.
What a Decline in China Will Mean for the World
China has driven GDP based on heavy capital investment. When, at some point, that ends, and China's GDP growth falls dramatically, what will happen to the rest of the world?
Not that much, argues Michael Pettis. Pettis is a leading thinker on international trade and investment flows. He is currently a nonresident senior fellow in the Carnegie Asia Program, based in Beijing, and also professor of finance at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. He formerly taught at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management and before that at Columbia University. He spent the first half of his career on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance, working with Manufacturers Hanover (now JPMorgan) and Bear Stearns. He has also worked as a partner in a merchant-banking boutique that specialized in securitizing Latin American assets and at Credit Suisse First Boston, where he headed the emerging markets trading team.
China in Africa
Howard French is the author of two books on Africa and three books on China, with one of those books being about China's booming ties with Africa. The more recent Africa book, "China's Second Continent," is about the million Chinese who have emigrated to the African continent since the 1990s and what they mean for China and for Africa. His newest book, “Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China’s Push for Global Power,” is a meditation on China's historical self image and what that means for China's current political leadership. In this interview, he talks about post-reform China's interaction with Africa. Currently a professor on the faculty of the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, French for many years was a senior writer for The New York Times. From 2003 to July 2008, he was the newspaper's Shanghai bureau chief. Before his China assignment, French headed bureaus in Japan, West and Central Africa, and for Central America and the Caribbean.
Will China Replace the US?
In this far-ranging discussion, historian and corporate consultant Kenneth J. DeWoskin places China's 40-year reform period in historical perspective and makes sense of campaigns like the China Dream and the Belt and Road Initiative against the backdrop of China's massive debt. He compares China's economic development with that of Japan, Korea, and the Southeast Asian "Tigers" and looks ahead to where China will be in the next five years.Ken is a former partner for China Strategy and Business Development at one of the Big Four, founder of Deloitte's China Research and Insight Centre, and now serves as a Senior Advisor and Eminence Fellow to Deloitte for China research and insight. He concurrently serves as Senior Advisor to The Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business. He is a frequent contributor to J Capital. A former professor of International Business and chairman and professor of Asian Cultures at the University of Michigan, Ken has been involved with China for over 50 years and has lived and worked extensively in both China and in Japan. Among his publications is the early study A Song for One or Two (https://www.amazon.com/Song-One-Two-Michigan-Monographs/dp/0892640421/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1516958792&sr=8-1&keywords=for+one+for+two+dewoskin), the most thoughtful and subtle analysis in English of China's early music.
The $53 Trillion Pricing Problem
In this interview, Tim Bergin, a former bond trader, talks about why both stock and bond market valuations are stretched by at least $50 trillion and what will happen when that begins to unwind. He does not envision a crisis like that of 2008, but asset owners will get a lot poorer.
Tim has a particular focus on the Canadian economy and here discusses the real estate bubbles there and the ways in which banks and insurers are exposed to it. He looks at some long and short ideas that flow from the Canadian thesis.
Tim worked on a proprietary credit trading desk for 12 years at one of the largest credit institutions, managing portfolios of convertible bonds, corporate debt, CDS, interest rate swaps, equities, options, and products. He also worked for two credit-focused hedge funds. He now manages his own money and advises clients through his company On Beyond Investing (https://onbeyondinvesting.com/). He is a fundamental, value-based investor but looks for value wherever it can be found, different asset classes, sectors, securities etc.
Listeners should note that nothing in this comment should be construed as investment advice or recommendations but only Tim Bergin's personal views. No one should make investments based on this podcast.
Deep Throat IPO: Bob Wittbrot
Bob Wittbrot writes and comments on global-economic and financial issues on his "Deep-Throat-IPO (https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/)" blog. He is the founder and owner of Bob Wittbrot & Associates, the "best" (in his slightly biased opinion) Insurance Agency in Cleveland Ohio, as well as a former CPA, Auditor & CFO. He's earned Graduate and Undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Finance from the University of Wisconsin. Here he talks about the post-global financial crisis world and how it has given rise to companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Softbank.
The Short Activist: Sahm Adrangi
Sahm Adrangi is the founder and managing partner of Kerrisdale Capital Management. He is most known for short selling and publishing research. He first made a name for himself shorting Chinese companies, but has since broadened his approach to invest in longs and other sectors. Sahm started his financial career in credit – performing high-yield debt refinancings and post-bankruptcy refinancings at Deutsche Bank, as well as advising creditor committees in bankruptcy and out-of-court restructuring situations at Chanin Capital Partners. Subsequent to his investment banking experience, Sahm spent several years at a multi-billion-dollar distressed debt hedge fund, Longacre Management. In this interview he talks about fraud at Chinese reverse mergers, crypto-currencies, and some of his long ideas. Apologies for the rough audio in the first few minutes.
Really great interviews!
Anne has always had a one-of-a-kind take on the world and she brings this insight to her unique interviews.
Informative, specialized, and interesting
I love this podcast. J Capital has been on the forefront of Chinese economic analysis for years and they have always said what needs to be said. Anne Stevenson-Yang has had many years of experience working in China and it is clear that she knows what she is talking about. Those who are interested in a specific, factual, and specialized approach to the Chinese economy will benefit from this podcast.
This is a very interesting podcast on a diverse range of financial issues. The guests are quirky and original, and the questions are incisive. The conversation is intelligent and sometimes quite funny.