World at Odds

Marty
  • 0.0 (0)
  • GAMES
  • UPDATED SEMIWEEKLY

World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world. I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events. We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident? The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.

Episodes

  1. MAR 7

    World at Odds Episode04 | AI Trading Fails, Texas Election Edge, Masters Arbitrage

    In this episode of World at Odds, Andrew and I try to build AI trading bots for Polymarket. The experiment does not go well. One bot immediately nukes a bankroll by selling 93-cent shares for one cent. Good reminder that AI still needs adult supervision. We also break down a prediction market edge in the Texas Senate primary, where understanding runoff rules created a pricing opportunity most traders seemed to miss. Finally, we explore a potential Masters betting arbitrage strategy and whether AI can help test it. If you like prediction markets, probabilistic thinking, and finding edges in weird places, this episode is for you. Coming soon: WorldatOdds.com

    44 min

  2. MAR 2

    World at Odds Episode03 | Iran, Aliens, AI Bots

    Episode03: back with co-host Andrew. We explore some +EV bets on Iran, aliens (probably), and how to get started with bots...

    31 min

  3. FEB 15

    OddsOn Episode02 | Betting for Newbies, Kid Rock, Mid Terms

    Thanks to guest Tim Williams and especially to Kid Rock and Turning Point USA for making today's episode possible.

    22 min

  4. FEB 8

    OddsOn Episode01 | Super Bowl LX, Greenland, 2028 Election

    The first episode! OddsOn: let's gamble on anything. Covered today: Greenland, 2028 US Presidential Election, and Super Bowl LX. A special thanks to Andrew Genung for co-hosting . And a huge thank you to Steven H for always keeping me accountable to do this! This one is dedicated to you, sir.

    33 min
  • 4 Episodes

About

World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world. I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events. We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident? The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.

Information

  • Creator
    Marty
  • Episodes
    4
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Marty
  • Show Website
    World at Odds