Stephan Livera Podcast

Stephan Livera
  • 4.9 (396)
  • Technology
  • Updated Weekly

Join Stephan as he interviews the sharpest economic and technical minds in Bitcoin & Austrian Economics to help you understand how money is changing and evolving. Leading names in the world of Bitcoin join the show to share their insights, whether they are developers, CEOs, economists, authors, analysts and more.

  1. 4d ago

    Bitcoin Desire Hits 8-Year Low | Michael Sullivan SLP756

    Bitcoin desire sentiment has fallen to an eight-year low, a contrarian signal that historically aligns with market bottoms rather than tops. Michael Sullivan, an engineer and author, applies machine learning to individual X accounts to track granular Bitcoin emotions and moods over time. He examines how entry eras shape lasting narratives, why pro-BIP 110 cohorts show strikingly low conviction, how individual tracking avoids bot pollution, and why boredom plus infighting often mark optimal accumulation zones. Timestamps: 01:44 — Conviction Isn't Bullish or Bearish 07:05 — Why Individual X Tracking Beats Bots 09:53 — Desire Peaks Flag Bull Market Tops 11:49 — Bitcoin Desire Hits 8-Year Low 16:27 — New Bitcoiners Angriest Right Now 21:00 — Bitcoin Entry Era Shapes Your Views Forever? 22:48 — BIP 110 Backers Show Strikingly Low Conviction 25:33 — Pro-BIP 110 Group Lives in Its Own Bubble 28:39 — BIP110 Brigading Creates Fake Consensus 31:57 — OGs Optimistic, Plebs Stay Angry 37:13 — X Algo Shift Sparks Bitcoin Optimism 39:57 — Why Sentiment Metrics Fail for Trading 41:55 — Boredom and Infighting Signal Bitcoin Bottom Links:  Michael's X: https://x.com/SullyMichaelvan Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly on Substack: https://sentimentsully.substack.com Michael’s novel, Blood of the Bourgeoisie: https://www.amazon.com/Blood-Bourgeoisie-Michael-R-Sullivan-ebook/dp/B0FRZTM49Y Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

  2. Jul 10

    James Check: Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin Amid Time Pain | SLP755

    Even as ETFs and MicroStrategy sell into weakness, natural spot demand has kept Bitcoin from collapsing in what may be the shallowest bear market on record. The real test now is time pain, the grinding boredom that forces out remaining weak hands after the initial price capitulation. James Check, founder of Checkonchain.com, joins me to break down the current cycle through on-chain data and market psychology. His framework distinguishes price pain from the subsequent time pain that historically marks the true bottom. Checkmate examines why short-term holders flipped into high-conviction buyers, why 53K realized price now acts as a floor, the Pareto distribution among Bitcoin treasury companies, and why most copycat strategies will fail in the months ahead. Timestamps: 00:56 — Last Day of Bear Feels Worst 03:26 — Time Pain Grinds Out Weak Hands 05:53 — Shallowest Bear Market Ever Seen 08:53 — Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin From Zero 11:14 — Short-Term Holders Are Now Smart Money 15:28 — July Bear Bottom: 8-Method Average 18:50 — 53K Realized Price Now the Floor 23:00 — Buy Bottom 15% and Just DCA 28:30 — The AI Trade 30:46 — Bitcoin and Gold Share a Rare Moat 35:23 — Will Most Bitcoin Treasuries Fail? 37:37 — MSTR's Sale of Bitcoin 41:28 — Bitcoin Treasuries Follow Harsh Pareto Rule 47:30 — Bitcoin Treasuries Next Cycle 49:05 — High-Yield Trap? Links:  https://x.com/_Checkmatey_ https://x.com/_checkonchain checkonchain.com https://charts.checkonchain.com http://newsletter.checkonchain.com/ Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack #StephanLivera #StephanLiveraPodcast #Bitcoin #BearMarket #OnChain #Checkmate #TimePain #RealizedPrice #BitcoinTreasury #MarketCycles

    James Check: Spot Buyers Saving Bitcoin Amid Time Pain | SLP755

  3. Jul 9

    Bitcoin in Your Signal Chat – Radar’s Bold Move with Seth for Privacy | SLP754

    Radar integrates self-custodial Bitcoin payments directly into Signal's messaging network, eliminating the need for separate apps or custodians when sending value to contacts. Seth for Privacy, from the Cake Wallet team, explains how Radar targets everyday users rather than Bitcoin maximalists by preserving Signal's privacy model while adding instant Lightning-enabled transfers via Spark. The discussion covers seamless account migration from Signal, offline payment receives, wallet risk limits for non-critical funds, and the decision to pursue VC funding through a separate entity. Timestamps: 00:49 — Why Messaging & Payments Stay Separate 03:34 — Migrate Signal Account Without Losing Data 08:18 — Send Bitcoin Instantly With One Tap 10:10 — Receive Payments Completely Offline 11:40 — Bitcoin for Everyone, Not Just Bitcoiners 14:21 — Don't Put Life Savings in Hot Wallet 17:10 — Signal Can't See Your Bitcoin Payments 19:13 — Donating Monthly to Signal Foundation 22:48 — Radar Takes VC Path Unlike Cake Links:  Radar Chat: https://radar.chat @SethForPrivacy: https://x.com/sethforprivacy Cake Wallet: https://cakewallet.com Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    Bitcoin in Your Signal Chat – Radar’s Bold Move with Seth for Privacy | SLP754

  4. Jul 7

    Dan Gould: Payjoin DevKit Ships and Breaks Common Input Ownership | SLP753

    Payjoin delivers transaction batching driven by real economic activity rather than waiting for pool participants, while also cutting fees through direct net settlement between counterparties. Dan Gould, maintainer of Payjoin DevKit, explains how the new async protocol and oblivious HTTP relay change what is practical for mobile wallets today. The conversation covers current live deployments in Bull Bitcoin and Cake Wallet, remaining fingerprinting heuristics beyond common input ownership, the multi-party roadmap, and how developers can integrate the library with under ten thousand lines of code. Timestamps: 00:00 — Payjoin DevKit 01:46 — Live Payjoins in Wallets Today 04:25 — No Waiting for Batch Pools 06:14 — Payjoin Works on Mobile Phones 08:29 — Oblivious HTTP Hides Your IP 10:05 — Fingerprinting Still an Issue? 14:02 — Net Settlement Saves Big Fees 15:36 — Multi-Party Payjoin Roadmap 17:10 — Build Payjoin in a Weekend Links:  https://x.com/brian_trollz/status/2069465912143749462  https://github.com/payjoin/payjoin.org/pull/143  https://payjoindevkit.org/  https://x.com/bitgould Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    Dan Gould: Payjoin DevKit Ships and Breaks Common Input Ownership | SLP753

  5. Jul 3

    Fedimint in South Africa: Zero Fees & Community Custody | SLP752

    A South African circular economy is already running real payments on Fedimint with seven guardians on Start9 boxes. Users send eCash with zero fees inside the federation and feel the same simplicity as Wallet of Satoshi—except the custody is local and the privacy model is different. Hermann and Joshi explain how non-technical guardians set up 5-of-7 multisig, how the Conduit wallet hides complexity, and why Fedimint beats Liquid on on-chain integration and local trust. They also cover Lightning gateway economics and why small federations may beat one global Spark. Bitcoiners exploring Lightning, eCash privacy, and circular economies in emerging markets should listen. Key Takeaways: Seven-guardian 5-of-7 multisig on Start9 now runs daily in South Africa with high reliability. Users inside the same federation enjoy true zero-fee eCash transfers. Conduit wallet offers a lighter, payments-focused alternative to Fedi with regional QR support. Migration between federations is smooth with parallel running and user-controlled timing. Fedimint severs the transaction graph for privacy while Liquid hides amounts but retains the graph. Local guardians reduce the “custodial guilt” felt when onboarding users to foreign services. Lightning gateways can become profitable side businesses with only a few hours of monthly work. Geographic spread of guardians improves resilience against local internet or power outages. Onboarding still requires one extra step—joining the federation—after app install. Fedimint is on-chain native, allowing direct receive and send without intermediate swaps. Timestamps: 00:00 - Fedimint Goes Live in South Africa 01:48 - Magic: Pay Across Africa 04:15 - Onboard Users Without Custodial Guilt 08:08 - Zero Fees Shock Rural Users 11:04 - Liquid vs Fedimint Privacy Showdown 13:32 - Many Small Federations Or Global Spark 16:09 - Non-Techies Run Bitcoin Guardians Easily 18:14 - 5-of-7 Multisig Survives Two Failures 20:53 - Fedimint QR Is a 5-of-7 Multisig 24:05 - Gateway: Profitable Hobby in Hours/Month 31:06 - Trust Locals Over Anonymous Custodians 34:55 - Spread Guardians to Survive Outages Links:  Bitcoin Ekasi: https://bitcoinekasi.org Fedimint: https://fedimint.org Conduit Wallet: https://joschisan.github.io/conduit/ SLP651 with Eric & Joschi: https://stephanlivera.com/651 Follow Hermann: https://x.com/vryfokkenou Follow Joschi: https://x.com/joschisanbtc Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    Fedimint in South Africa: Zero Fees & Community Custody | SLP752

  6. Jun 30

    Quarterly Self-Custody Update - Q2 2026 with NVK | SLP751

    In this episode,  NVK rejoins me to discuss the latest developments in Bitcoin self-custody, hardware wallets, and privacy solutions, providing valuable insights for enthusiasts and practitioners alike. Timestamps: 00:00 Quarterly Self-Custody Update 01:28 Sparrow Wallet Update & Silent Payments 05:41 Coldcard MK5 & Recent Firmware Updates 07:53 The Evolution of Co-signing & MuSig2 11:58 Liana & Nunchuk Wallet Updates 17:16 Cove, BlueWallet & Mobile Wallet Progress 19:09 BitKey V2 & Pragmatic Self-Custody 22:55 Open Hardware Wallet Project Updates 27:15 Merchant Payments & Bitcoin Commerce 31:19 Stable Balance Wallets & Self-Custody 36:38 Hardware Wallet Security Updates 39:07 ARCA: Personal Data Haven Explained Links:  Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    Quarterly Self-Custody Update - Q2 2026 with NVK | SLP751

  7. Jun 29

    The First Stratum V2 Block: What It Means for Bitcoin Mining | SLP750

    In this episode, Alejandro De La Torre, CEO of @DMND_Sv2, joins me to discuss the mining of Bitcoin block 955,318 — the first known Stratum V2 block on mainnet. We break down what happened, the benefits of Stratum V2, how it improves efficiency and we talk about SV2 adoption more broadly. A great episode for anyone who wants to understand where Bitcoin mining is heading. Timestamps: 00:00 The First Stratum V2 Block: What Happened? 01:08 How Does Miner Transaction Selection Change Bitcoin Mining? 01:58 Can SV2 Mining Pools Still Reject Blocks Though? 03:19 Can Miners Easily Switch Pools with Stratum V2? 04:45 Major Mining Pools Joining the Stratum V2 Working Group 05:40 Hardware & Firmware Support for Stratum V2 07:43 Is Miner Interest in Stratum V2 Growing? 09:00 The Biggest Benefits of Stratum V2 for Miners 10:21 How Does DMND's SLICE Payout System Compare to FPPS? 11:50 What Needs to Happen for Stratum V2 to Become the Standard? 13:21 Should Miners Start Building Their Own Block Templates? Links:  Alejandro’s announcement post: https://x.com/bitentrepreneur/status/2070131040992035235 DMND Pool: https://www.dmnd.work Alejandro on X: https://x.com/bitentrepreneur Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    The First Stratum V2 Block: What It Means for Bitcoin Mining | SLP750

  8. Jun 29

    Bitcoin Treasury Stocks: Sentiment or Structure? Deep Dive with Adrian Morris | SLP749

    In this episode, Adrian Morris joins the show to discuss Bitcoin Treasury Companies. We explore whether MSTR and STRC are over, sustainable mNAV premiums, the impact of leverage, the right way to calculate mNAV, how many such companies can realistically exist, and how this space evolves through bull and bear markets. Timestamps: 00:00 What are Bitcoin Treasury Skeptics Getting Wrong? 03:55 Is it over for STRC? Par vs Peg 06:30 The level of correlation to Bitcoin price 07:10 Critiques of STRC marketing? 09:02 Market Dynamics and Bitcoin Correlation 10:50 Should Strategy Do Something About STRC? 13:55 Is it a waiting game? 14:40 Is the bitcoin treasury risk mispriced? When is a premium justified? 19:26 Leverage or Amplification embedded in the structure 24:10 Operating or Financing Flows to Get Bitcoin? 26:15 mNAV 29:12 Thoughts on CEBE Analysis 32:30 Different forms of mNAV 36:12 Sentiment’s role is amplified 40:32 “Just Tread Water and Survive Until the Bull” 42:47 Will the Correlation to Bitcoin Price increase over time? 46:18 Growth Opportunities: Mergers and Acquisitions  48:23 The Bitcoin Treasury Model - How Replicable is it? 51:50 Where are we in this cycle? 53:42 AI Analysis: Tools and Techniques for Investors 58:55 Is AI being overbuilt?  1:01:40 Open Weights and Local AI? Links:  Adrian on X: https://x.com/_Adrian True North: https://tnorth.com/ Bitcoin For Corporations: https://bitcoinforcorporations.com/ Stephan Livera links: Follow me on X: @stephanlivera Subscribe to the podcast Subscribe to Substack

    Bitcoin Treasury Stocks: Sentiment or Structure? Deep Dive with Adrian Morris | SLP749
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About

Join Stephan as he interviews the sharpest economic and technical minds in Bitcoin & Austrian Economics to help you understand how money is changing and evolving. Leading names in the world of Bitcoin join the show to share their insights, whether they are developers, CEOs, economists, authors, analysts and more.

Information

  • Creator
    Stephan Livera
  • Years Active
    2018 - 2026
  • Episodes
    756
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Stephan Livera
  • Show Website
    Stephan Livera Podcast

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