xChanging’s Substack Podcast

xChanging Good
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Discover tomorrow's Alpha Today. Listen to your favorite anonymous analyst discuss what matters in crypto, Web 3, and whatever else we can wrap our minds around on weekly basis. xcgood.substack.com

  1. FEB 3

    Trade Trump Tokens?

    On the January 27 episode of the Trading Pit 👉 Hands down, the easiest, fastest way to find signal in crypto metrics without sacrificing on execution: https://t.me/+w8kQSxHOdkEyMmJk Trader Round Table: How to Trade an Emerging Narrative Narrative-Driven Trading: Not all narratives are equal; some, especially those pushed by regulatory bodies or political leaders like the President of the United States, hold more weight. The "Made in USA" token narrative is a key focus, with the potential to drive regulatory changes and investment. Filtering Tokens: Traders should filter tokens based on volume and market cap. High volume and market capitalization are indicators of more tradable tokens. Established tokens are often the easiest to assess within new narratives. Volatility and Opportunity: New tokens can offer high volatility and outsized gains but also carry higher risk. Mid-cap tokens can experience sudden surges in volume, which can be profitable. Narrative Life Cycles: Narratives tend to have a limited lifespan. They typically follow a 30-60-90 day cycle, and the market can quickly "bleed dry" any narrative. Broader Market Context: Traders should always consider the broader market, including liquidity and demand. Even compelling narratives may not lead to immediate price action if liquidity is low or overall market demand is weak. Market Run-Down Bitcoin's Cooling-Off: Bitcoin is currently in a cooling-off period. There is no major buying or selling pressure, and hedge funds are returning capital. Bitcoin is range-bound with key areas of support and resistance that can be used to inform potential trades. Ethereum's Strategy: Ethereum is not seen as a strong trading asset for the short term, but rather as a buy-and-hold opportunity. It may decline further before a major price increase. The focus should be on its long-term potential, particularly its financialization and composable DeFi primitives. Solana's Cautionary Approach: Solana shows a similar lower high structure to Bitcoin, and trades should be considered with caution. The Flow Report Stagnant ETF Flows: ETF flows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently stagnant. This indicates a need for a catalyst to reignite the market. Un-staking of ETH is outpacing new investments in ETH ETFs, which adds negative price pressure. Emerging Bitcoin Holders: A new class of long-term Bitcoin holders (over one year) is emerging, and they are currently selling, possibly due to tax implications. Ethereum's Financialization: There is optimism for Ethereum's future, especially in the financialization of assets and its composable DeFi primitives. Ether Strategy is emerging as a project for Ethereum similar to MicroStrategy for Bitcoin. Alt Season Expectations: An alt season is still expected, and regulatory changes are likely to play a significant role. Regulatory Shift: There has been a shift in the regulatory landscape from suppression to support of crypto. This will likely impact market dynamics and valuations. Bretton Woods III: A new thesis around a strategic reserve of crypto assets is developing, pointing to a potential Bretton Woods III moment. World Liberty Financial, backed by Trump, is accumulating a portfolio of crypto assets, aligning with this idea. Coinbase Premium: The Coinbase premium for Bitcoin is starting to rise, which could be a positive signal, but this trend must be sustained. Ethena and USDE: The yield on staked USDE for Ethena is linked to staking rewards and funding rates. The product is sensitive to market conditions, and the funding rates, which contribute to the yield, have been declining. Follow the team: Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly @xChanging_Good Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    2h 10m

  2. JAN 22

    Trump Token (It's Complicated)

    On the January 21 episode of Trading Pit... (apologies on the technical difficulties impacting audio and video. We’re working diligently to correct these issues for upcoming recordings). * Account size and trading strategy: Whether to trade on-chain or off-chain is a primary consideration, regardless of account size. * Goals over account size: Instead of focusing on account size, traders should consider their goals, such as whether they want to generate monthly income, or achieve a 10x or 100x return. Smaller accounts ($1,000) may require more luck and reliance on "influencer" information. * Minimum capital for success: To be successful, traders should have at least $10,000 and invest in tooling and infrastructure. * Importance of tooling: Having the right tools for information, execution, and reporting is essential for successful trading. * Liquidity profile: When choosing assets to trade, liquidity should be a primary consideration, as well as sufficient volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) is always a good option due to its liquidity and volatility. * Capital efficiency: For larger accounts, consider capital efficiency such as using a basket of assets as collateral to trade perps and generate monthly income. Another capital efficient strategy is to use a loan from collateralized assets to invest in potentially high growth assets. * Risk management: It's important to lock in profits to compound positions and grow an account. Instead of trying to short Bitcoin, traders should consider deleveraging. * Laddering down: Laddering down is a strategy that involves breaking up a buy order into multiple orders at progressively lower prices, to manage risk and capture better entry points. * Trump Token: The launch of the Trump token was an on-chain event that attracted about 400,000 traders, highlighting the potential of on-chain trading. It also created an emotional drama for many traders. * Bitcoin outlook: Despite the recent price surge, the market is not overheated. The widely expected announcements about a strategic Bitcoin reserve did not occur, leaving many to speculate on what might happen in the coming months. * Solana surge: Solana experienced a significant increase in price and trading volume, driven by the Trump token launch. The on-chain fees also increased significantly. Solana appears primed to benefit from Trump’s push for crypto in the United States. * Ethereum weakness: Ethereum is currently struggling, with its price reaching an another low against Bitcoin. On chain fees are very low, indicating lack of demand. Staking yields have also dropped. The market isn't showing any interest in the potential for price appreciation in ETH and the increase in unlocked ETH is impacting its price. 👉 Try PANDA Terminal: https://t.me/+w8kQSxHOdkEyMmJk 👉 Try J-AI on chain: https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod Follow the team: Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly @xChanging_Good Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    1h 55m

  3. JAN 16

    Bitcoin: How To Survive January 2025

    In the January 14 episode of the Trading Pit: * Market sentiment is cautious due to recent market volatility and uncertainty surrounding upcoming events, such as the CPI print and the new US president's inauguration. * Bitcoin is showing signs of stability, with a key support level identified around 96,000. As long as this level holds, there is potential for upward price movement. * On-chain data for Bitcoin reveals weakness, with declining transaction fees and lackluster ETF inflows, suggesting a lack of strong demand. * Ethereum is facing multiple headwinds, including a decrease in its “moneyness ratio” due to significant ETH being unstaked from the Beacon Chain, particularly by Coinbase. This trend indicates a weakening demand for ETH as collateral or for use in DeFi protocols. * Outflows from Ethereum ETFs are contributing to the negative pressure on ETH price. * Ethereum is experiencing low network demand, evident in the extremely low gas fees. This lack of demand raises concerns about the utility and adoption of the Ethereum network despite ongoing efforts to improve scalability. * Solana is showing unexpected resilience, driven by activity in the AI agent ecosystem. Despite a general market downturn, Solana's on-chain activity, particularly related to AI agent development and transactions, is supporting its price and network usage. * Binance is accumulating a significant amount of Solana, suggesting potential plans for increased involvement in the Solana ecosystem. * The success of the Ethereum-based structured product, Ethena, is viewed as both positive and negative. While it demonstrates demand for ETH as a yield-generating asset, it is also absorbing a significant amount of ETH, potentially suppressing its price. * The potential for AI agents to drive meaningful on-chain activity and demand for ETH is still uncertain. While the concept holds promise, current applications are mostly focused on superficial aspects, lacking substantial real-world utility. * Traders are advised to exercise caution and manage risk effectively in the current market environment. This involves using appropriate leverage, setting stop-loss orders, and avoiding impulsive trading decisions driven by fear or hype. TL:DR While Bitcoin shows signs of potential stability, Ethereum is facing significant challenges. The emergence of Solana as a resilient force and the potential of AI agents offer some optimism, but it remains to be seen if these factors can drive sustained growth in the market. great time to be in the market. 👉 Try J-AI on chain: https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod Follow the team: Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly @xChanging_Good Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    1h 58m

  4. JAN 8

    Why 2025 Will Be Ethereum's Year

    On the January 7 episode of Trading Pit… Bitcoin is likely to test the $93K level and a close below this level on the daily chart would indicate significant weakness and open the door to a decline to $82K, or potentially lower. Solana is showing concerning signs of weakness in its liquidity profile, making a test of the previous week’s low at $180-$185 likely. If Solana breaks the previous week’s low, a much steeper decline is possible. Ethereum continues to show signs of weakness and a weekly close above $3600 is needed to improve the technical outlook. Cardano is showing relative strength compared to Ethereum and Solana. Elevated borrowing rates for USDC across various protocols including Aave, Compound, and Curve, suggest the market needs a cool-down period. The acceleration in borrowing rates in early 2024 coincided with a market top, as the cost of capital became too high and created conditions for a pullback. While borrowing rates have come down from their highs, they are still elevated relative to historical levels. High borrowing rates act as a constraint on further price appreciation and suggest a pullback is likely. Athena, a protocol that enables users to earn yield on their Ethereum holdings by taking a short position against it, is likely suppressing the price of Ethereum. Athena has attracted significant demand, with over $3 billion worth of Ethereum locked in the protocol. This has effectively removed a large amount of ETH from circulation, limiting its upside potential. Ethereum needs a fresh source of demand to overcome the price suppression from Athena, and this demand is most likely to come from Wall Street via ETFs. ETFs would introduce a new class of buyers who are not primarily focused on yield and could drive significant price appreciation. Ethereum L1 gas fees have been declining, suggesting that concerns about network congestion may be overblown. Improved tooling and code optimization are contributing to lower fees. The focus on L2 scaling may be premature given the current low fees on L1. The AI agent narrative has the potential to drive significant growth in the cryptocurrency market, but the market may not yet fully appreciate its potential. AI agents can be applied to various sectors of the crypto ecosystem, including DeFi, L2s, and ZK-rollups 👉 Try J-AI on chain: https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod Follow the team: Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly @xChanging_Good Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    2h 19m

  5. JAN 2

    2025: What Happens Will Surprise You

    In the last show of 2024, Benjmain, Amit, Ben Lilly, and Marconi Wight theorize what 2025 will bring after a historic year for Bitcoin and the entire industry. Hint, hint: we think the best is yet to come. But first, what happened in the last two weeks? Despite Bitcoin ETF outflows reaching almost a billion dollars in the last two weeks of 2024, Bitcoin is poised to outperform in 2025 based on historical trends, favorable market conditions, and potential government support. Ethereum struggled in 2024 with low trading volume and unpredictable price movements. However, it might be best positioned for AI agent adoption due to its established infrastructure and active developer community, which is better suited for building and deploying sophisticated AI applications. Solana, while showing signs of resilience despite declining activity on the Pump.fun platform, faces potential headwinds from the Grayscale Solana Trust. Unlocks from this trust could lead to substantial selling pressure, impacting price performance. AI16Z has run lava hot for weeks but is a dangerous token to buy at this point. Ordinals (ORD), on the other hand, looks like a better trading opportunity because of a clear invalidation point and potential for growth. Ethereum is attracting institutional investors, suggesting anticipation for growth fueled by staking yields and a clearer regulatory environment. On-chain data analysis shows a substantial amount of ETH locked in illiquid forms like staking and lending, though this has recently declined. This dip is attributed to large stakeholders unstaking their ETH, potentially for end-of-year tax selling, rather than a loss of confidence in Ethereum. It is expected that this trend will reverse in January, bolstering Ethereum's fundamentals. The recent rise in Ethereum fees is also viewed as a potential bullish indicator. Bitcoin flows have reversed significantly since the previous episode, with outflows exceeding inflows. This is attributed to institutional investors taking profits and reallocating capital before the new year. The Coinbase premium, which currently favors Binance, is seen as reflecting this selling pressure. Despite these outflows, Bitcoin remains a bullish prospect for 2025 due to factors like increasing ETF adoption, a potentially favorable regulatory landscape under the new administration, and the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market. Similar to Ethereum, Bitcoin fees are showing signs of recovery, potentially indicating positive price action soon. 👉 Try J-AI on chain: https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod Follow the team: Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    1h 39m

  6. 12/12/2024

    Bitcoin Collapses: Will The Shake Out Continue?

    The cryptocurrency market saw a 6% correction; this was necessary following weeks of price increases. Excessively high funding rates, particularly those observed as Bitcoin neared $100,000, played a role in the correction. Despite the significance of the correction, it was considered healthy. Significant inflows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs highlight growing institutional demand. Potential factors driving this demand include the carry trade and a possible supply shock spurred by increased institutional buying. Importantly, Dogecoin's price movements have exhibited a consistent pattern since the U.S. election. This pattern suggests that Dogecoin's price may be front-running the broader market. While a definitive correlation cannot be proven, Dogecoin's continued strong performance suggests a positive market outlook. J-AI had a splendid week 1. JAI garnered positive user feedback for its ease of use and ability to identify strong trading opportunities, especially within the Solana and Ethereum ecosystems. Try J-AI today (no fee but minimum balances suggested for performance: https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod The market sell-off offered good trade setups for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin while some coins, like AAVE, are still too hot for a good R:R. Ben Lilly’s flow report analyzed trends across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. For Bitcoin, ETF flows have been a major driver of demand for Bitcoin and the Coinbase premium has decreased recently, suggesting a possible slowdown in those flows. For Ethereum, upcoming upgrades might add another roadblock to ETH’s price as the fee market expands beyond demand. On the positive side, Base continues to add strong demand to Ethereum and Ethena’s growth might create a supply shock in the coming month. Solana's flow dynamics reveal a decline in activity on the Pump.Fun platform and its subsequent impact on fees and MEV yields. Solana's future will likely depend on the emergence of a new demand driver to take the place of the waning meme coin narrative. Chapters (00:00:00) Bitcoin Correction: Bull or Bear? (00:06:50) ETF Inflows & Supply Shock (00:17:47) JAI's First Week & User Feedback (00:32:47) JAI's Valuation & Future Potential (00:36:19) Bitcoin Trade Setup & Analysis (00:49:58) Solana Trade Setup & Analysis (00:52:48) Doge Trade Setup & Analysis (00:59:35) Flow Report: Bitcoin Overview (01:15:35) Flow Report: Ethereum Overview (01:45:53) Flow Report: Solana Overview Follow the team: xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    1h 59m

  7. 12/05/2024

    Memecoins vs. AI Agents: Who Wins In 2025?

    XC is back on Podcasts!!! On the December 3 2024 Trading Pit, Benjamin the Whale Hunter, and Amit the Range Sniper analyze price movements for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, offering trading insights and actionable setups. The hosts discuss the recent surge in XRP and other "Dino coins," attributing it to rotation from Bitcoin and renewed interest in familiar tokens on mainstream platforms. They also debate the potential of meme coins versus AI agents, highlighting the role of leverage and institutional interest in the current market. J-AI On-Chain Product Launch Sign up today!!! https://bit.ly/Try_JAI_Onchain_Pod The launch of J-AI On-Chain, a decentralized, self-custodial trading platform that allows users to connect their own wallets and deploy trading strategies developed by J-AI, a sophisticated AI trading system. This solution eliminates the risks associated with centralized exchanges, like those experienced with FTX and Mt. Gox, where users’ funds are held by a third party. J-AI On-Chain initially launches with three strategies across three different blockchains: Ethereum and Solana Micro-Cap Strategy: This strategy focuses on identifying and capitalizing on trading opportunities in the meme coin ecosystem. It’s now available on both Solana and Ethereum. Bitcoin Strategy: Available on Base, this strategy aims to buy Bitcoin at opportune moments (“buy the dip”) and take profits as the price rises. Backtesting suggests that this strategy has outperformed a simple “buy and hold” approach during bear markets, while also minimizing drawdowns. J-AI On-Chain is differentiated from other on-chain trading solutions in several key ways: Decentralized Wallet Architecture: Rather than using a vault structure, where all user funds are pooled together, J-AI On-Chain uses a decentralized wallet architecture where each user controls their own funds, minimizing the risk of a single point of failure and potential losses due to the actions of other users. Sophisticated AI Trading Engine: J-AI uses trillions of data points, including information about liquidity pools, holders, top traders, and other on-chain metrics, to identify trading opportunities. This is in contrast to AI agents that rely heavily on social sentiment data, which can be easily manipulated. Focus on Trading: J-AI is specifically designed for crypto trading. Unlike general-purpose AI agents being developed by companies like AIX, BTC, or AI16Z, J-AI is solely focused on providing users with the best possible trading experience. Ease of Use: J-AI On-Chain is designed to be easy to use. Users can connect their wallets and deploy trading strategies with just three clicks. The minimum investment for J-AI On-Chain is flexible, but a higher balance allows the algorithms to perform more effectively. The platform does not charge any subscription fees. Instead, a small percentage is taken from each trade, and the team has worked to optimize these fees to be lower than those on decentralized exchanges like Uniswap. Ben Lilly returns to the show with a deep exploration of the state of the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana networks. On Bitcoin, Ben Lilly analyzes network fees and highlights the significant impact of ETF inflows on network activity. However, he raises concerns about the sustainability of this growth, citing the lack of compelling DeFi applications and the reliance on points programs to attract capital. Turning to Solana, Ben Lilly notes a decline in activity following the peak of the meme coin frenzy driven by Pumped Out Fund. He suggests that Solana needs new catalysts beyond the gambling arena to drive sustainable growth. Finally, Lilly examines Ethereum's performance, pointing to the increasing activity on Layer 2s like Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism as a positive sign. He observes that this activity is starting to translate into increased fees on the mainnet, suggesting a potential turning point for Ethereum's fee dynamics. Lilly concludes with a call for the development of robust, utility-driven applications on all three networks to ensure their long-term success. Follow the team: xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew On Twitter @Marconiwight @TheWhale_hunter @rangesnipe @mrbenlilly Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

    1h 43m
  8. 36 Days to Bitcoin Halving - How to Play It

    03/15/2024

    36 Days to Bitcoin Halving - How to Play It

    Only 36 days to the Bitcoin Halving and JJ walks through his approach for playing it like a pro (if you own spot or don't). 👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs But that's not the only topic catching fire this week. Crypto credit markets are the life blood of market makers keeping prices elevated or depressed. While some look at market depth to suggest credit has returned, the answer is more complicated and reflects a possible resilience that hasn't existed in crypto before. This could lead to a healthier rise over time. The markets continue to offer warning signs while ETF demand continues with rampant inflows. While historically the market has experienced a strong decline prior to Bitcoin's Halving, the introduction of ETF's means this time may rhyme but it is in fact different. But that doesn't mean it's bull time forever. The DXY continues to suggest uncertainty in the market. Whether it spikes up or down from here is unclear. But macro signals, such as higher inflation prints and a jobless numbers under expectations, continue to offer a mixed market view. Something to keep an eye on. The Ethereum Duncan upgrade and the market responded early on with a sell off. While the reduction in fees might be big news for ETH maxis, the market doesn't seem all that impressed. But that doesn't mean there aren't positions to be had. Have a listen and let us know what you think. Chapters: 00:00:00 Rapid Fire 00:03:27 The Bitcoin Halving Trade 00:07:04 Crypto Credit Markets Returning 00:11:53 Rules Changing the Lending Market 00:14:40 Market Breakdown 00:16:43 TradFI is Suppressing Bitcoin Price 00:27:49 DXY and Possible Liquidity Drain 00:32:30 BitFinex Selling - Wat Mean? 00:35:43 Eth Duncan Upgrade + Coin Screener 00:43:17 Options Positioning and Expensive Insurance 00:48:00 Wat Meme Coin Mania Means 👉 Start Trading Options Today at Coincall: https://partner.coincall.com/jarvislabs Contact Marconi for Sponsorships: marconiwightsocial@proton.me 👉 Share your thoughts with the Crypto Enthusiast Survey https://bit.ly/XCGsurvey Follow the team: xChanging Good Studios https://bit.ly/xChangingGood Espresso Newsletter https://bit.ly/espressobrew On Twitter @Marconiwight @MrBenLilly @JlabsJanitor @Kodi_thekid @benjamin_skew Disclosure Statement This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit xcgood.substack.com

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Discover tomorrow's Alpha Today. Listen to your favorite anonymous analyst discuss what matters in crypto, Web 3, and whatever else we can wrap our minds around on weekly basis. xcgood.substack.com

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