Rational Security

The Lawfare Institute

A weekly discussion of national security and foreign policy matters hosted by Lawfare Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  1. 23 hr ago

    The “Happy FrAIday” Edition

    This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kevin Frazier, Roger Parloff, and Molly Roberts to talk through some of the week’s big news in AI, including: “Citizen Cain’t.” When the NAACP sued Elon Musk’s xAI under the Clean Air Act—alleging that the company built dozens of gas-fired turbines to power a data center in Mississippi without relevant air permits and exposing nearby, predominantly Black communities to harmful pollution—the Justice Department opted to do something it has never done before: it intervened in a citizen suit against a private company in order to kill it. DOJ’s motion offers two theories: first, that shutting down the turbines would threaten national security because the military relies on xAI’s Grok Gov model (including in relation to the Iran war) to secure the nation, and second, that the Constitution’s vesting of executive power in the president means private citizens cannot enforce federal law over the executive’s objection. How strong are these arguments? And what would it mean for environmental and other citizen-enforcement suits if DOJ were to prevail?“Grok the Vote.” We may be living through the first true “AI elections.” In Manhattan’s NY-12 Democratic primary, more than $40 million in AI-industry and AI-safety money turned a little-known assemblyman, Alex Bores, into something of a national referendum on whether voters care about AI regulation and AI safety—though Bores ultimately lost to Micah Lasher this week. Meanwhile, overseas in Malaysia, parties are using chatbots and other AI-driven technologies to reach out to voters in new and novel ways. And just this week in Washington, a new study has concluded that frontier AI is perhaps more persuasive than ever, but also may not be as politically neutral as some suspect or one might hope. What does this all mean for democratic politics when both money and the messaging involved in our politics are increasingly shaped by AI?“Kill, Kill Switch, Kill, Kill!” The government's frontier-AI "kill switch" is now ready to have its first day in court. If you recall, a few weeks ago, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security sent Anthropic an "Is Informed" letter ordering it to suspend all access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for any foreign nationals, including its own employees. This ultimately led Anthropic to pull access to those models for everyone within hours. But this past Monday, June 22, a technology startup called Legion LegalTech filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government alleging that it has acted in a way that is unlawful and raises a number of statutory and constitutional concerns. How strong is the legal challenge, and what does it tell us about whether courts—rather than the executive—will end up defining the government's power to switch a frontier model on and off?In object lessons, Molly sticks to the script for this week’s episode with her call-out of Erik Nitsche’s “Atoms for Peace” poster series for General Dynamics. Also inspired by this week’s theme, Kevin dives into some “light summer reading” about technology, globalization, and the law with “Rules for a Flat World,” by Gillian Hadfield. Roger, similarly, is “unwinding” with “The Winter Warriors,” by Olivier Norek, a novel about the lesser-known David vs. Goliath story of Finland taking on the Soviet Union in 1939. And Scott says enough already! He’s headed on vacation next week, and so is Rational Security. We’ll be back with a new episode and a rejuvenated Scott on July 9. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    1hr 20min
  2. 18 Jun

    The "Predestination" Edition

    This week, Scott sat down with cohost emeritus and Lawfare Research Director Alan Rozenshtein, Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Lawfare Public Service Fellow Julia Curlee, and Lawfare Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including: “Fission Accomplished.” After nearly four months of war, the United States and Iran have reached a deal to end the conflict—with Trump declaring it “complete” and authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a formal signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland. But the agreement leaves enormous questions unresolved, from the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium to sanctions relief to whether the ceasefire extends to Israel’s campaign in Lebanon. Is this the durable peace Trump claims, or a fragile pause papering over the hardest issues?“Model Misbehavior.” Days after Anthropic publicly released its powerful new Claude Fable 5 model, the Commerce Department imposed export controls barring any foreign national—inside or outside the U.S.—from accessing it, forcing the company to disable the model worldwide. The administration says Anthropic recklessly refused to fix a dangerous jailbreak; Anthropic says it was a narrow, non-serious vulnerability and the order is a misunderstanding. What does this episode tell us about the government’s expanding use of export controls on AI—and its increasingly adversarial relationship with one of the country’s leading labs?“Bad Vibrations.” In one of her final acts as Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard rescinded two Biden-era intelligence assessments that had cast doubt on whether a foreign adversary was behind “Havana Syndrome,” the mysterious ailments afflicting U.S. spies and diplomats. Gabbard’s office says the prior assessments cherry-picked intelligence to support a predetermined conclusion; critics worry about a politically motivated rewrite of analytic findings on the way out the door. What should we make of this last-minute reversal, and what does it mean for the future of the Havana syndrome debate—and Gabbard’s legacy as DNI?In object lessons, Tyler remains steadfast in his mission to ensure that no one ever runs out of podcasts, this week plugging A Whole Other Country, a discovery from Tribeca Festival Audio. Alan embraces peak dad-tech with his bbq upgrade—a new, after-market temperature controller. Scott savors a delightfully spicy Supreme Court dust-up in FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd. And Julia celebrates her mug, an appropriate mainstay during her post-White-House-PDB “deep state therapy hour.” To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    1hr 15min
  3. 4 Jun

    The “Mosquitos and Heat and Sweaty and Eww” Edition

    This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, and Lawfare Contributing Editor and Vice President of Research, Security and Defense at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Ariane Tabatabai, to talk through the week’s big news in national security, including: “The Empire Strikes Out.” Russia’s ground offensive in Ukraine appears to have hit some stiff resistance with it losing territory over the past calendar year in the face of a strong defense by Ukrainian forces—including strikes on Russian supply lines in Russia—and growing manpower shortages and economic pressures at home. But Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be compensating with one of the most brutal air campaigns in recent memory, including a massive aerial attack on Kyiv this week that forced tens of thousands of Ukrainians to shelter in place—including our own Nastya. What signs are there for optimism—or for caution—on the future of Russia’s war of aggression? And how will positive developments on the battlefield for Ukraine impact Russia’s demands at the negotiating table?“Strait Trippin’.” On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for the first time since the U.S. went to war with Iran and told senators that “the war is over.” This statement came just days after the United States and Iran traded strikes and Iranian state-run news outlets reported that it had broken off negotiations with the United States. President Trump, on the other hand, insists that the talks are still ongoing and appeared to pressure Israel to pull back from a major offensive against Hezbollah over the weekend. What do we make of these developments? Has there been any progress toward a negotiated solution to the conflict? Is there any reality to Secretary Rubio’s assertion that the war has come to an end?“Pulte Fiction.” President Trump announced an unexpected pick to take over the position of Director of National Intelligence on Tuesday: Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and heir to a residential home building empire, with apparently no national security experience whatsoever. Trump said Pulte will stay on as housing director and take over the job from Tulsi Gabbard in a part-time and acting capacity. So who exactly is he? And why does Trump trust him enough to pick him to serve, at least part time, in one of the country’s most important intelligence positions? In object lessons, the crew goes all in on what to read and listen to. Nastya is giving a nod to “The Limits of Partnership: U.S.-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century,” by Angela Stent. Tyler is giving two thumbs up to the work of architecture critic Kate Wagner. Scott is tapping his toe to Marisa Anderson’s “The Anthology of UnAmerican Folk Music.” And Ari is grooving to the Switched On Pop podcast, a deep dive into the music that moves us. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    1hr 13min
  4. 28 May

    The "Potty Like It's 1999" Edition

    This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower and Eric Columbus, and his Brookings colleague Molly Reynolds, to talk through a couple of the week’s big news stories in domestic politics, including: “The Grift That Keeps On Giving.” Last week, the Justice Department announced the creation of a so-called Anti-Weaponization Fund of nearly 1.8 billion taxpayer dollars, from which purported victims of politically motivated prosecutions can apply to receive payments. The fund was created as part of a settlement with President Trump and his sons, who sued the IRS for 10 billion dollars over the leak of his tax returns. So far, pardoned Jan. 6 rioters, former Congressman George Santos, Trump’s ex attorney Michael Cohen, and even former FBI Director James Comey have all said that they are considering applying, and three lawsuits have already been filed challenging the fund. How did Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS lead to this fund? And how do we see these legal challenges playing out in court?“Lame Duck Around and Find Out.” President Trump’s preferred primary picks have cruised to victories in Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Georgia Republican primaries, ousting incumbents Senator Bill Cassidy and Representative Thomas Massie as some of the few voices of dissent within the Republican Party. But Trump’s involvement in the primaries has come at a political cost, with outgoing members voicing their criticism and even going so far as to buck the president on legislation. Last week, Cassidy flipped his vote in favor of a critical war powers resolution in the Senate, which could undermine the administration’s legal justification for the war. With such close margins in Congress, how do we expect this new YOLO faction to impact the president’s agenda before the midterms?While we introduced a third topic, we frankly ran out of time this week. Sorry about that! We’ll circle back to it in the weeks ahead.In object lessons, Molly is hooked on the fish-focused local NPR podcast, “Catching The Codfather.” Eric is looking to catch a killer with the latest Hugh Jackman movie (which he thinks is shear perfection). Scott is caught up in the latest “Storm,” featuring Yung Lean. And Anna has caught basketball fever, both with the Knicks’ return to the NBA Finals, and also with the (much-more-affordable-but-equally-entertaining) NY Liberty. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    1hr 9min
  5. 30 Apr

    The "Tavern Style" Edition

    This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Executive Editor Natalie Orpett and Contributing Editors Ariane Tabatabai and Joel Braunold, to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including: “The Art of the Heel.” As it approaches the 60-day mark, the war of Iran appears to have entered the “war of attrition” stage. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed by both Iran and the United States, as each side waits to see if the other will capitulate first. President Trump recently called off peace talks in Islamabad, in part because of purported internal disarray on the part of Iran—a perhaps unsurprising consequence of a two-month campaign of regime change. Meanwhile, the White House appears to have successfully pushed for and and then extended a ceasefire in the related theater of Lebanon, but it is already under strain from ongoing Israeli strikes and Hezbollah’s ensuing refusal to disarm. What should we make of this new equilibrium? And does it suggest that there is any way out of the current morass in the near future?“Royally Falked.” King Charles is in the United States this week for the first state visit by a British monarch since Queen Elizabeth in 2007. But the Trump administration’s latest round of antics toward the United Kingdom and other NATO allies may overshadow the trip. Over the weekend, Reuters reported that an internal Pentagon email suggested that the administration should explore withdrawing U.S. recognition of British control over the Falkland Islands and suspending Spain from NATO due to their refusal to join U.S.-Israeli combat operations against Iran. Other consequences may yet be in the offing. How seriously should we take these threats from the Pentagon? And how close are we to a permanent rupture in the United States’s preeminent alliance?“Ballroom Blitz.” On Saturday night, President Trump was the target of a third assassination attempt since the 2024 campaign. This time, a California teacher plotted to target Trump and his senior advisers at the annual White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner. In response, the administration quickly blamed Democrats for the heated, sometimes violent rhetoric they use in criticizing Trump and focused its attention on pressuring a federal court to end a civil case challenging the construction of the new White House ballroom, citing security concerns. What were some of our thoughts about this past weekend’s events?In object lessons, Ari is taking control of the narrative with Split Fiction for the Switch 2. Natalie is taking herself out for a treat to Boulangerie Saint Georges near Eastern Market. Scott is taking a break from his own podcast to appreciate Iran: The Latest from The Telegraph. And Joel is taking a lesson from the NFL draft that may delight both sportsball and non-sportsball fans alike. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    1hr 24min
  6. 23 Apr

    The “Sun-kissed to Death” Edition

    This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Eric Columbus, Molly Roberts, and Loren Voss to talk through a few of the week’s big news stories, including: •“Meet Joe Flack.” The Justice Department’s ongoing investigation into the alleged “grand conspiracy” against President Trump in relation to the 2016 elections and their aftermath has entered a new phase this week with the appointment of Joseph diGenova, a former Reagan-era U.S. Attorney and political commentator, as counselor to the Attorney General in charge of the investigation. Meanwhile, reports indicate that the Justice Department may be preparing to bring charges against former CIA Director John Brennan, a vocal Trump critic, whom diGenova has previously called a “traitor” in interviews with Fox News, even after the career attorney previously in charge of the investigation withdrew. What should we make of diGenova’s new role in this investigation? And how seriously should we take these attempts to prosecute Brennan and others allegedly involved in the “grand conspiracy”? •“No Occupation Without Representation.” A district court officially closed out Trump v. Illinois this week, that case that ultimately led the Supreme Court to invalidate the grounds on which the Trump administration had federalized and deployed national guard troops to several states last year over the objections of their governors. But while those deployments have ended, other deployments remain ongoing – including the more than 2,500 soldiers that are still on the streets of Washington, D.C., whose deployments are expected to last as long as 2029. What are the limits on these other forms of domestic deployment? And what space does Trump v. Illinois leave for the Trump administration to renew more aggressive deployments if it sees fit? •“Hungary for Change.” Last week, Hungary voted to end the sixteen year reign of Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz Party, which have been frequently cited as models for President Trump and his MAGA movement. This was in spite of a last minute visit by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, which unsuccessfully sought to shore up support for Orban in the waning days of the campaign. How do we see Orban’s defeat playing out in the U.S. as the conservative movement begins to think about what comes next after the Trump presidency? For object lessons, Eric recommended The Brick as a way to stop the noise of the internet from distracting you from your work (on your phone, at least). Molly showed off her matryoshka, or Russian nesting dolls, in celebration of the step back in Russian influence in Hungary. Scott celebrated in his own way, by recommending the new spy series Ponies, not so much for its authenticity, but for its incredibly stylish take on 1970s Moscow. And Loren recommended that D.C. locals stop by her favorite chai place, Afghan Chai in Dupont Circle. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    1hr 20min
  7. 9 Apr

    The “Deeply Iran-ic” Edition

    This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Daniel Byman, Tyler McBrien, and Natalie Orpett to talk through aspects of the week’s biggest Iran-focused news stories, including: “Situational Iran-y.” The world came into Tuesday evening fearing a major escalation in the ongoing U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran. But instead, President Trump made a last-minute choice to accept a two-week ceasefire, conditional on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz—a condition that Iran indicated it was prepared to meet, kind of, so long as “open” means coordinating with its military forces (and paying) for safe transit. Is this the beginning of the end of the Iran conflict? And what does the shape of the ceasefire tell us about the conflict’s likely regional implications moving forward?“Verbal Iran-y.” Tuesday’s breakthrough ceasefire agreement came after days of increasingly outlandish rhetoric by President Trump, including a threat earlier that day that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if his conditions were not met. What role did Trump’s threats play in the outcome? And what might the broader ramifications might be of the U.S. president issuing threats that would amount to war crimes (if not genocide) if actually followed up on?“Dramatic Iran-y.” While Trump’s rhetoric was undoubtedly intended to communicate strength, it came from a place of increasing weakness. U.S. military operations in Iran were weeks away from a major statutory barrier, and efforts to secure needed supplemental funding are facing headwinds in Congress. Perhaps more importantly, the conflict has proven widely unpopular and devastating for the U.S. and broader global economy—two factors that weigh heavily on Trump and his congressional allies in an election year. What will this shift in the Iran conflict mean for Trump’s political future? Not to mention the legal and institutional arrangements that have allowed him to pursue so unorthodox a foreign policy in recent months?In object lessons, Dan is not playing games when simulating the 1960 presidential election. Natalie is delighting in another kind of history with the masterful writing in Claire Messud’s “This Strange Eventful History.” Scott is revisiting a 2002 Donald Trump review of “Citizen Kane” that has a somewhat surprising ending. And Tyler is recommending that you watch as much Artemis II content as humanly possible. Note: We’re taking a little break next week, but keep an eye out for our next episode on April 23! To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    1hr 22min
  8. 12 Mar

    The "Stop Cap" Edition

    This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kate Klonick, Molly Roberts, and Troy Edwards to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including: “MisAnthropic.” On Monday, Anthropic filed a civil complaint in the Northern District of California and a petition for hearing at the Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit over the Department of Defense’s designation of the frontier artificial intelligence company as a “supply chain risk.” The litigation capped off weeks of building tensions between Anthropic and Pentagon officials over the firm’s two ethical red lines for the Defense Department and its use of its AI model, Claude, specifically around widespread surveillance of Americans and the use of AI and autonomous weapons. What exactly are the Pentagon’s grounds for designating Anthropic as a supply chain risk, and how does Anthropic argue that doing so is inconsistent with the law? And what might the implications be for the AI industry as a whole?“The Mashhadian Candidate.” Fears that Iran would respond to the ongoing Israeli-U.S. military campaign through overseas terrorism have come to a head this week, as reports emerged that U.S. intelligence had detected an encrypted message being transmitted from Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for assets sitting outside of the country. What do we know about Iran’s involvement in past clandestine operations, including terrorism? And what does it mean that this is all happening at a moment when the Justice Department and FBI have lost so many of their experienced national security personnel?“Maricopa-calypse Now.” Federal investigators have ramped up several inquiries that appear to be aimed at longstanding—and, thus far, unsubstantiated—allegations of fraud in the 2020 election that are particularly popular with President Trump and his closest supporters. Last month, FBI agents executed a search warrant on Fulton County’s election office and confiscated ballots and voting equipment used in 2020. Last week, the FBI reportedly subpoenaed records from a conservative Arizona legislator over the state senate’s audit of the 2020 election results in Maricopa County. And days later, the Department of Homeland Security’s Homeland Security Investigations office (or HSI) requested records from Arizona state officials regarding their own investigations into alleged 2020 malfeasance. What should we make of these developments? And at what point should we be concerned about the federal government's engagement in these sorts of matters in advance of the upcoming 2026 midterms?This week’s object lessons are all-consuming. Kate is celebrating online legal analysis by drinking from her Balkinization mug. Troy is lamenting yet another slate of firings at the FBI by drinking from his EX FED mug. Scott, finding himself with unexpected free time at Union Station, devoured Barbara Tuchman’s “A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century.” And Molly introduces us to the texturally triggering cherimoya.  To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    1hr 13min

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A weekly discussion of national security and foreign policy matters hosted by Lawfare Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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