Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook

StoneX Group Inc
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StoneX Presents: Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook – your trusted source for insight into the global forces driving commodity and agricultural markets. Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, as he breaks down the latest developments in the global economy, energy, and agriculture. From macroeconomic trends to crop fundamentals, Arlan delivers timely analysis to help producers, traders, and businesses navigate market volatility with confidence. Gain practical, data-driven insights to manage risk, spot opportunity, and understand the stories behind market moves. Stay informed. Stay ahead. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?variant=45955623256164&selling_plan=4455792740 (https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?variant=45955623256164&selling_plan=4455792740)

  1. 4 DAYS AGO

    Hormuz Watch: Why the Next 36 Hours Matter for Grain, Energy & Fertilizer

    Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why the next 36 hours could be critical for grain, energy, and fertilizer markets. In this April 6 update, Arlan covers: Why the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest near-term market driverHow a ceasefire or de-escalation could remove some war premium from commodity marketsWhy further escalation could push energy and fertilizer prices even higherWhat to watch ahead of this week’s USDA WASDE reportWhy soybeans still have support while corn and wheat face pressureFor deeper energy, grain, and livestock market analysis from Arlan, subscribe to his Market Intelligence Plan here: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001828&utm_medium=organicsocial&utm_campaign=stonexsocial_USaginsights_yt&utm_content=organic_USaginsight_v1_20250821 Subscribe for more market insight from Arlan Suderman and StoneX. #ArlanSuderman #StoneX #GrainMarkets #EnergyMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Fertilizer #WASDE #OATT #OOTT

    12 min

  2. 1 APR

    War Fears or Crop Facts? What USDA Grain Stocks Really Mean

    Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest USDA quarterly grain stocks report and explains what is really driving the grain and oilseed markets right now. In this April 1 update, Arlan covers: How war headlines influenced grain and oilseed buying What the March 1 USDA grain stocks data says about corn, soybeans, and wheat Why corn stocks came in lower than expected What the report could mean for soybean and wheat balance sheets Why large supplies are still pressuring basis How fertilizer risk could shape the grain outlook going forward If you follow corn, soybeans, wheat, basis, USDA reports, and commodity market trends, this is a key update from the trading floor. Subscribe for more market insight from Arlan Suderman and StoneX.

    14 min

  3. 30 MAR

    EPA Biofuels Rule Turns Bullish for Soy Oil, Corn & Grain Markets

    Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down why the EPA’s final biofuels rule could be a major demand driver for feedstocks and ag markets. In this March 30 update, Arlan covers: Why the new EPA biofuels guidelines look bullish for soy oil and feedstock demand What the final renewable volume obligations mean for renewable diesel How energy shortages and the Strait of Hormuz disruption are reshaping commodity flows Why fertilizer shortages and food security headlines are getting market attention What this could mean for corn, soybeans, wheat, and grain/oilseed money flow If you follow biofuels, grain markets, oilseeds, fertilizer, and global commodity risk, this is the market update to watch. Subscribe for more trading-floor updates from Arlan Suderman and StoneX. #ArlanSuderman #StoneX #Biofuels #SoybeanOil #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #GrainMarkets #CommodityMarkets #EPA #OOTT

    12 min

  4. 5 MAR

    Oil Surges After U.S.–Israel Strike on Iran | Strait of Hormuz Risk & Fertilizer Spike

    Geopolitical risk just escalated — and energy and agriculture markets are reacting. Following a coordinated U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, crude oil prices surged as tanker traffic slowed through the Strait of Hormuz — the critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude exports. StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down what this means for: • Crude oil prices and global energy flows • Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions • Fertilizer supply risks (urea, ammonia, phosphate) • The spike in Gulf urea prices • Soy oil rally and rising biofuel demand • EPA biofuel RVO developments • U.S.–China trade tensions and Xi–Trump negotiations With fertilizer production concentrated in the Middle East and energy markets on edge, agriculture and commodity markets are tightly linked to unfolding geopolitical developments. Arlan also examines: • How long military disruptions could last • The risk of an Iranian power vacuum • Why China stands to lose if Iran’s regime changes • Whether higher crude prices could accelerate U.S. biofuel policy If you trade or follow crude oil, grains, fertilizers, biofuels, or global macro markets, this is a critical update from the StoneX trading floor. Subscribe for ongoing commodity market analysis from StoneX. https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

    14 min

  5. 5 FEB

    Major Chinese Policy Shift: What it Means for U.S. Exports

    Are we witnessing a major shift in China’s agricultural trade policy? In today’s market update, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the overnight headlines following President Trump’s call with China’s President Xi — and the 50‑cent surge in soybean futures that followed. In this episode, Arlan covers: Trump’s request for China to buy an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans China’s newly released “Number One Document” and a surprising shift away from self‑sufficiency messaging Why Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper — and how that complicates U.S. export potential What a forced Chinese purchase would mean for global basis levels Biofuel policy expectations and the impact on U.S. crush demand Why Arlan remains skeptical — but why the possibility still matters Stay informed on developments that could reshape U.S. export opportunities and global grain flows. Like & Subscribe for continued updates as the situation evolves. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

    14 min

  6. 3 FEB

    45Z Guidelines Hit the Biofuels Market: Big Shifts for Soy Oil, CI Scores & UCO Imports

    StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down the new 45Z clean fuel production credit and why carbon intensity (CI) scores now decide value. He details the post‑2025 North America‑only feedstock rule, high-risk status for imported used cooking oil (UCO), and the removal of ILUC—plus what he’s watching next from the EPA on RVOs. What’s inside: 45Z is out: Technology‑neutral, CI‑driven credit (2025–2029) North America-only feedstocks after Dec 31, 2025 (no blending/dilution; origin matters) Imported UCO (EUCO) flagged as high risk; foreign UCO pathways excluded in 45Z CF GREET after 2025 ILUC removed starting in 2026 → improves soy biodiesel CI Credit math: CI score is the gatekeeper; up to $1/gal if PWA rules met (indexed) Winners vs. losers: Efficient, low‑CI plants vs. older, higher‑CI operations Market implications: U.S. soy oil structurally advantaged; crush margins supported Next shoe to drop: EPA RVOs timing likely late Feb–early March (post OMB review) Like & Subscribe for real‑time market updates from the trading floor. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights? #StoneX #Biofuels #45Z #Soybeans #Biodiesel #RenewableDiesel #CarbonIntensity #GREET #EPA #RVO #UsedCookingOil #ILUC

    14 min

  7. 29 JAN

    Massive Shake‑Up in China’s Military: Impact on Soybeans, Trade & Markets

    In today’s Update From the Trading Floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down a major geopolitical development in China, a sweeping purge inside the Central Military Commission, and what it means for U.S. soybean exports, global commodity flows, and ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations. Arlan explores: China's military leadership purge and why top generals close to President Xi are being removedSigns of cracks in Xi Jinping’s power base and how that increases geopolitical riskHow instability in China affects soybean shipments, biofuel demand, and global crushersThe status of U.S.–China trade talks following meetings at DavosWhy rare earth minerals and new Canada–China agreements may fuel fresh trade tensionsThe outlook for Brazilian and Argentine crops and competitiveness against U.S. soybeansHow Taiwan remains a key flash point and why China likely stays quiet for nowWith China’s military shaken and global markets watching closely, Arlan explains why the current climate may actually support U.S. soybean shipments in the near term — and what to watch next. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights? Like & Subscribe to receive Arlan’s weekly updates from the trading floor.

    13 min

  8. 21 JAN

    Greenland Fears Ease, Soybean Export Risks Rise

    President Trump addressed global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, clarifying that the United States will not invade Greenland—a statement that helped ease market volatility after recent geopolitical fears rattled equities and commodities. In this morning update from the trading floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down: Why Greenland matters strategically and why invasion fears were overblownHow easing geopolitical tension is impacting financial and commodity marketsChina’s reported purchase of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeansWhy soybean export risks remain skewed to the downsideWhat upcoming EPA biofuel guidance could mean for the soybean complexWith Brazilian supplies entering the global market and China likely finished buying U.S. soybeans for now, Arlan explains what needs to happen for USDA export targets to be met—and where the risks lie. Stay informed with real-time market insights directly from the trading floor. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

    9 min
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About

StoneX Presents: Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook – your trusted source for insight into the global forces driving commodity and agricultural markets. Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, as he breaks down the latest developments in the global economy, energy, and agriculture. From macroeconomic trends to crop fundamentals, Arlan delivers timely analysis to help producers, traders, and businesses navigate market volatility with confidence. Gain practical, data-driven insights to manage risk, spot opportunity, and understand the stories behind market moves. Stay informed. Stay ahead. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?variant=45955623256164&selling_plan=4455792740 (https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?variant=45955623256164&selling_plan=4455792740)

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