At Any Rate J.P. Morgan Research

J.P. Morgan US interest rate strategists Srini Ramaswamy, Teresa Ho and Alex Roever are joined by economist Michael Feroli to discuss QT (quantitative tightening) and its impact on banks and money markets.

This podcast was recorded on June 30, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Ted Hall to discuss the implications of Biden administration’s proposed federal gas tax holiday. As millions of Americans prepare for summertime driving, including over next month’s July Fourth holiday, the Biden administration continues to look for ways to ease record fuel prices. Cutting fuel taxes, changing blending requirements, and capping gasoline exports could each provide some temporary relief to US consumers, yet, until supply-side issues—namely, an acute shortage of refining capacity—are addressed, most measures intended to reduce the price of gasoline will instead likely encourage Americans to drive more, in turn leading to higher gasoline demand and yet higher gasoline prices. The reality is that, with demand stimulated and supply constrained, fuel prices won’t drop until demand does.

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research

 

This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4127358-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4114639-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast we discuss our medium term views on Euro area inflation, its impact on ECB delivery. We also discuss our main trading themes on the German curve, intra-EMU spreads, money market/swap curve, swap spreads, and rates volatility.

 

Speakers
Fabio Bassi, Head of European Rates Strategy

Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist

Francis Diamond, UK Gilt and European Inflation Strategist

Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist

 

This podcast was recorded on June 24, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4129745-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

In this episode of At Any Rate, we say goodbye to negative-yielding debt, which has declined rapidly to just $5.9trn from a peak of $17.2trn in Q1/2020, with Japan now accounting for 78% of the remaining stock. Structural forces pointing to higher real yields, greater macro volatility and faster moving business cycles. Much higher US inflation volatility could easily make inflation average 3-4% over the next decade. A traditional 60/40 equity-bond allocation by our estimates prices in ~5% pa return the next decade, up from 3% at the end of 2021, as the market repricing year-to-date has cheapened US bonds and equities, and raised our 10-year out expected returns by 2% pa relative to end-2021. We favor assets where income can rise more with inflation, and where asset prices fall less, favoring Health Care and Financials, EM FX, Commodities (ex-Gold) and market-neutral hedge funds. Commodity-linked assets provide an effective hedge against the risk of a persistent rise in inflation, including livestock, industrial metals, and energy futures with Energy stocks favored over the short run and Global Utility stocks over the long run.

Speakers
Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research

Jan Loeys, Head of Long-term Strategy

Alex Wise, Long-term Strategy

Preetham Nanda, Global Index Research

Peter McCrory, US Economic Research

 

This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Natasha Kaneva is joined by Shikha Chaturvedi, Greg Shearer, Tracey Allen and Ted Hall to discuss the outlook on global commodities. As conditions of acute scarcity persist across all commodities, world is entering the traditional peak demand season with inventories 19% below historical average. This lack of inventory buffer leaves the market vulnerable with outsized impact on prices amidst any shock to supply.

Speakers
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Oil and Commodities Research

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Gas Research

Gregory Shearer, Head of Metals Research

Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Research

Ted Hall, Vice President of Global Oil Research

 

This podcast was recorded on June 17, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4123032-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan Economist Michael Feroli joins US Rates Strategists Jay Barry, Phoebe White and Alex Roever to discuss their thoughts on the June FOMC meeting.

This podcast was recorded on June 15, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.